Share Picks 2020

tommy35

Started buying shares first time this month. A number of them up +40% - bank, cruise liners, oil etc. Starting to wonder should I buy a significant amount. High risk obviously but I'm willing to wait it out over 1 or 2 years and take the ups with the downs.

bcklschaps

tommy35 wrote: »

Started buying shares first time this month. A number of them up +40% - bank, cruise liners, oil etc. Starting to wonder should I buy a significant amount. High risk obviously but I'm willing to wait it out over 1 or 2 years and take the ups with the downs.

Tommy, you got very lucky.... and good on ya

Just by chance you happened to start investing during a period of fairly major recovery in most share prices.

Don't be thinking you have the midas touch or anything .... on the contrary, with this little win, you will probably be hooked for life now :rolleyes: .... and the stock market could well end up being your ruination.

For example : Had you started investing in Mid Feb ... you would be down probably 40%

Just for balance, most of the regular contributors on this thread (including myself) are nursing losses or at best just about breaking even.... don't gamble invest any more than you can afford to lose.

ctlsleh

bcklschaps wrote: »

Tommy, you got very lucky.... and good on ya

Just by chance you happened to start investing during a period of fairly major recovery in most share prices.

Don't be thinking you have the midas touch or anything .... on the contrary, with this little win, you will probably be hooked for life now :rolleyes: .... and the stock market could well end up being your ruination.

For example : Had you started investing in Mid Feb ... you would be down probably 40%

Just for balance, most of the regular contributors on this thread (including myself) are nursing losses or at best just about breaking even.... don't gamble invest any more than you can afford to lose.

Anyone using MyWallSt? It removes some of the gambling risk and at least you get the option of a more informed view prior to investing......I find it quite good

robman60

What are people's opinions on the best IT plays? Of course Microsoft stands out but I'm looking more broadly too.

I don't know about others but the whole mandatory working from home thing has just highlighted to me how unnecessary physically attending the office for my work has been. I'm looking for plays which are best positioned to take advantage of this long term trend rather than gimmick stocks like Zoom which I don't think has the legs to have a long-term impact.

krissovo

robman60 wrote: »

What are people's opinions on the best IT plays? Of course Microsoft stands out but I'm looking more broadly too.

I don't know about others but the whole mandatory working from home thing has just highlighted to me how unnecessary physically attending the office for my work has been. I'm looking for plays which are best positioned to take advantage of this long term trend rather than gimmick stocks like Zoom which I don't think has the legs to have a long-term impact.

Tech has done ok of late so you are a little late for the quick wins, Microsoft has nearly fully recovered.

My picks have been focused on the cloud, vmware has done well for me and their end user remote cloud based remote worker suite is selling well. They are giving away licencees at the moment for a few months but will reap the rewards once they start charging for it and will hit 200 again this year. Workday rebounded well after a sharp drop and has potential, they are growing quickly in retail particularly scheduling staff that they can access from home. Zoom is not a gimmick as they are really ramping up corporate customers HPE, Santander, RBS to name a few in the last 8 weeks for their secure high bandwidth services

XMG

So how is your short treating you?

hobie21 wrote: »

I'll summerise the points.


1. Recession. Fewer customers buying cars (esp Chinese market 50% drop already)

2. The truck. What an ugly machine.
3. Cash burn, new factories in early stages in Germany China.
4. P/E of 50.



Plan is short at 570 and get out at 250.

hobie21 wrote: »

It's a dangerous stock to short alright. Very momentum based price and has a lot of fanboys so I'm going to wait until I think it's a slam dunk short. Maybe around 750. I think they are going to dump all the bad news on the market next week and just say, it's not our fault results are bad, it's the corona virus.


Market makes no sense at the moment to going to hide in gold for a while. GOLD (barrick gold corp)

hobie21 wrote: »

Tsla results next week. Last chance to get on the short train CHOO CHOO!!!!

AlmightyCushion

krissovo wrote: »

Tech has done ok of late so you are a little late for the quick wins, Microsoft has nearly fully recovered.

My picks have been focused on the cloud, vmware has done well for me and their end user remote cloud based remote worker suite is selling well. They are giving away licencees at the moment for a few months but will reap the rewards once they start charging for it and will hit 200 again this year. Workday rebounded well after a sharp drop and has potential, they are growing quickly in retail particularly scheduling staff that they can access from home. Zoom is not a gimmick as they are really ramping up corporate customers HPE, Santander, RBS to name a few in the last 8 weeks for their secure high bandwidth services

What do zoom have over similar offerings from Microsoft and Google? Genuine question as I don't really know their product. Used it for a quiz the other night and it worked grand but not without its problems.

littlemac1980

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

What do zoom have over similar offerings from Microsoft and Google? Genuine question as I don't really know their product. Used it for a quiz the other night and it worked grand but not without its problems.

Here’s what comes to mind for me - just my opinion by the way, I don’t own any zoom, had a few and sold a few. Also I’m not an experienced trader at all, just new so just replying from my own perspective and hopefully to add to the conversation. I think it’s a great question and I look forward to the answers of others.

1. Millions of subscribers. So do google, Facebook and Microsoft, but they tend to have them for different reasons, Zoom have them specifically for “video conferencing” in all its guises. Lots of free subscribers, yes, and some (unavoidable) uncertainty as to the true number of millions of subscribers, but plenty and plenty of paying subscribers too.

2. A huge headstart.

3. Their foot in the door of many traditionally non-modern tech work environments and industries, in companies and businesses that are traditionally not so much “opposed to change” in office practices but perhaps “slow to change“. Many businesses consider themselves innovative and go with the latest technological trends, many many others don’t upgrade IT systems and services very often.

Just my two cents!

Shedite27

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

What do zoom have over similar offerings from Microsoft and Google? Genuine question as I don't really know their product. Used it for a quiz the other night and it worked grand but not without its problems.

1. It's idiot proof - my company has a contract with Cisco and most staff still prefer to use a trial version of Zoom.

2. The name - most people now say "Let's Zoom at the weekend".

Technology-wise, not a whole lot that can't be replicated. They're making a good go at it, they hired an ex-Facebook lad to run their Security last week. It's a bit of a joke that a startup 90% of people hadn't heard of 2 months ago (Zoom) is now valued higher than Airbus!

Shedite27

tommy35 wrote: »

Started buying shares first time this month. A number of them up +40% - bank, cruise liners, oil etc. Starting to wonder should I buy a significant amount. High risk obviously but I'm willing to wait it out over 1 or 2 years and take the ups with the downs.

As others said, it's not always like this.

IMO, decide how much you want to invest. Then divide that amount by 8 and invest that month each month until the end of the year. You'll drip feed more money in but won't be hit as hard if this run reverses

ctlsleh wrote: »

Anyone using MyWallSt? It removes some of the gambling risk and at least you get the option of a more informed view prior to investing......I find it quite good

Yeah I read/listen to their stuff, wouldn't say it removes the risk, but definitely gives you a second opinion. If you see a stock you want to buy, you can check on their site if they also reccomend it. Great way of discovering stocks you wouldn't find otherwise

Outkast_IRE

Shedite27 wrote: »

Gilead have basically said they'll give this away at cost if it works, they're not going to get rich immediately/directly from coming up with a cure.

I would imagine the game here is to get on Trump and governments good side , and use this as leverage to settle the patent disputes quietly they have with government on their more profitable products.

Gilead has also been the subject to alot of hate by the LGBT groups these last few years so it would be some positive PR for a change.

Just on Zoom . I honestly think Microsoft Teams is going to eat them up bit by bit . The corporate agreements Microsoft have with most mid-large companies are including teams automatically as part of the package of programs more and more, companies will see the advantage of staying purely in a microsoft environment in terms of security, ease of updates , reducing the number of different software vendors they are dealing with. Plus as companies realise that teams integrates pretty perfectly with the other microsoft office products zoom will get the chop. Alot of companies turned to zoom as a knee jerk reaction , cause they were just ahead of the teams rollout, that will halt and reverse over the course of the year. The corporate agreements is where the big money is at and microsoft have all the established relationships with mid-large companies worldwide.

roosterman71

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

Just on Zoom . I honestly think Microsoft Teams is going to eat them up bit by bit . The corporate agreements Microsoft have with most mid-large companies are including teams automatically as part of the package of programs more and more, companies will see the advantage of staying purely in a microsoft environment in terms of security, ease of updates , reducing the number of different software vendors they are dealing with. Plus as companies realise that teams integrates pretty perfectly with the other microsoft office products zoom will get the chop. Alot of companies turned to zoom as a knee jerk reaction , cause they were just ahead of the teams rollout, that will halt and reverse over the course of the year. The corporate agreements is where the big money is at and microsoft have all the established relationships with mid-large companies worldwide.

Agreed. Any corporate entity that is in bed with Microsoft for their products (OS, SW, OneDrive, etc) will end up on Teams. In a few big places I've been in they are actively preventing employees installing or using Zoom on their UEs. When the WFH started, a lot of employees downloaded Zoom to ease their daily work. As time has moved on, they are being switched back to Teams (Skype failed miserably with the load) and now IT departments are restricting Zoom access.

That's not to say it has a place in the world, but it isn't the only show in town by a long stretch. Personally, I think it's vastly overvalued for a new company offering nothing that cant be, and is, easily replicated by the big players

krissovo

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

What do zoom have over similar offerings from Microsoft and Google? Genuine question as I don't really know their product. Used it for a quiz the other night and it worked grand but not without its problems.

Cisco's webex suffered from lack of investment to the infrastructure. Rumors were that it was never updated.

Google has never quite took off for corporate use

MS Teams, problem here is that many businesses were burnt by heavy investments in skype for a shockingly poor service. I would say a lot of current CIO/CTO's has memories burnt into them of user complains and experience of meetings that sounded more like a gathering of star wars robots. 5 years time it will probably be equal with zoom.

Mad_maxx

bought a FB $197.50 call two days ago when the stock was at $ 183.90 , paid $150 , its worth at least a grand today , trying to figure out whether to sell at the open or not , expires tomorrow but im not interested in exercising

il probably close at the open

Take Your Pants Off

Would you buy Tesla stock right now?
Ik it is overpriced, but tbh it is something that could give decent returns due to volatilte nature of the stock.
if it goes down, it goes down. It was like 700 just like 1.5 months ago, went down to 400, and now back up.

Bob Harris

Take Your Pants Off wrote: »

Would you buy Tesla stock right now?
Ik it is overpriced, but tbh it is something that could give decent returns due to volatilte nature of the stock.
if it goes down, it goes down. It was like 700 just like 1.5 months ago, went down to 400, and now back up.

I wouldn't at these prices - but if it goes back to 4-500 I would and with the real covid damage yet to be seen it probably will through no fault of it's own.

krissovo

Mad_maxx wrote: »

bought a FB $197.50 call two days ago when the stock was at $ 183.90 , paid $150 , its worth at least a grand today , trying to figure out whether to sell at the open or not , expires tomorrow but im not interested in exercising

il probably close at the open

Its a good option as it will open strong, if I walk away with 10% I am happy and make a point of having no regret.

krissovo

robman60 wrote: »

What are people's opinions on the best IT plays? Of course Microsoft stands out but I'm looking more broadly too.

I don't know about others but the whole mandatory working from home thing has just highlighted to me how unnecessary physically attending the office for my work has been. I'm looking for plays which are best positioned to take advantage of this long term trend rather than gimmick stocks like Zoom which I don't think has the legs to have a long-term impact.

I have just put Microfocus in my watch list, they tanked last year badly after some earnings adjustments even before the virus. There is some noise that their solution to virtualise mainframes into the cloud has some large mainstream banking customers in the sales pipeline. Core banking applications stuck on mainframes have crippled the established banks with legacy debt. I will be watching for any announcements closely.

tommy35

Shedite27 wrote: »

As others said, it's not always like this.

IMO, decide how much you want to invest. Then divide that amount by 8 and invest that month each month until the end of the year. You'll drip feed more money in but won't be hit as hard if this run reverses

Yeah I read/listen to their stuff, wouldn't say it removes the risk, but definitely gives you a second opinion. If you see a stock you want to buy, you can check on their site if they also reccomend it. Great way of discovering stocks you wouldn't find otherwise

Thanks all for the advise. I've money coming my way from remorgaging a property. My plan was to use this as a deposit and invest in more properties. I now think this is great opportunity to invest in financially strong companies within sectors that have been greatly impacted cruise, oil, airlines, hotels etc. Invest big waiting for it to double then sell half (my initial investment). Risky I know but I could potentially have stocks and property. I'm not risk adverse and willing to lose this money as I've other sources of income to cover living expenses.

Lex Luthor

Boeing's CEO announces 16,000 jobs cuts, saying recovery will take years.

Mad_maxx

krissovo wrote: »

Its a good option as it will open strong, if I walk away with 10% I am happy and make a point of having no regret.

10% on an option trade is tiny

Timmaay

Timmaay wrote: »

OK 250 is your target, what's your stop loss? Just to warn you if you say you don't have one your going to look like an absolute idiot.

The problem with shorting Tesla is despite all the fundamentals saying its overvalued there is a massive fan base all of whom are willing to drive on the share price with the dreams of it being the next apple etc, I'd bet it would see 900 again sooner than it would see 250.

XMG wrote: »

So how is your short treating you?

I posted that back when the tesla short idea popped up. Its taken me about 3months and afew very sore trade to really appreciate stop losses I'll admit.

Mad_maxx

tommy35 wrote: »

Thanks all for the advise. I've money coming my way from remorgaging a property. My plan was to use this as a deposit and invest in more properties. I now think this is great opportunity to invest in financially strong companies within sectors that have been greatly impacted cruise, oil, airlines, hotels etc. Invest big waiting for it to double then sell half (my initial investment). Risky I know but I could potentially have stocks and property. I'm not risk adverse and willing to lose this money as I've other sources of income to cover living expenses.

Too high risk

ctlsleh

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Too high risk

I agree, you'd need to have a 20 year horizon and hope that many of them don't go bust in the meantime

Bob24

For people on the thread who were looking at oil companies. Shell are cutting their dividend for the first time since WW2 - and not just a little bit, roughly two thirds if it are gone: https://www.shell.com/investors/dividend-information/historical-dividend-payments/first-quarter-2020-interim-dividend.html

I suspect others might follow in the coming weeks/months.

littlemac1980

voluntary wrote: »

Wonder if this is where we were yesterday?

Nemeses2050

Yep the market was behaving as if everythng was back to being hunky dory

littlemac1980

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Yep the market was behaving as if everythng was back to being hunky dory

Hunky Dory and then some!

Well I for one am not touching these dips. Probably won’t look to pick up anything til I see how things look Monday.

Edit: Unless IBM goes a bit lower.... lol

voluntary

The worst ever recession is hitting the world and people are buying stocks like mad. Something has to break here. Either I'm right or the the whole world has no no f..n logic :pac:


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coolshannagh28

voluntary wrote: »

The worst ever recession is hitting the world and people are buying stocks like mad. Something has to break here. Either I'm right or the the whole world has no no f..n logic :pac:


.

Welcome to the new paradigm , the bailout after 2008 and the current money printing has convinced investors that the good times are here forever.