2016 General Election Waterford

MRnotlob606 · 31-01-2016 11:15am #1

So I see that some other county and city forums have a 2016 General Election thread and Waterford was missing one. I think it would be a good way of stimulating debate about the proposed candidates.

The Candidates for the Waterford constituency are:

Fine Gael Paudie Coffey, John Deasy
Fianna Fáil Mary Butler
Sinn Féin David Cullinane
Labour Party Ciara Conway
Social Democrats -
Anti-Austerity Alliance
People Before Profit Una Dunphy
Green Party Grace O’Sullivan
Independents/ Others John Halligan
Renua Ireland Mailo Power

KevIRL · 31-01-2016 11:43am

Dessy and Halligan are certs, Cullinane pretty much a cert too. Fight for the last seat between Coffey and butler, right now it looks like Coffey might sneak it.

Not the most exiting constituency really. FF picked a pretty unremarkable candidate to try win back a seat they had always held until the last election. Surprising.

MRnotlob606 · 31-01-2016 11:46am

KevIRL wrote: »

Dessy and Halligan are certs, Cullinane pretty much a cert too. Fight for the last seat between Coffey and butler, right now it looks like Coffey might sneak it.

Not the most exiting constituency really. FF picked a pretty unremarkable candidate to try win back a seat they had always held until the last election. Surprising.

I think Coffey might sneak it too. The only reason Butler was chosen was probably to fill the gender quota, Eddie Mulligan would of been a better candidate in my opinion.

Royal Legend · 31-01-2016 11:52am

Ciara Conway has a chance too :rolleyes:

Sully · 31-01-2016 12:12pm

If Cullinane doesn't get it now, he may as well just walk from politics tbh.

bobbysands81 · 31-01-2016 12:13pm

Sully wrote: »

If Cullinane doesn't get it now, he may as well just walk from politics tbh.

He seems a good operator whenever I've listened to him.

What's the verdict of him in Waterford?

I would have thought he'll comfortably take a seat?

MRnotlob606 · 31-01-2016 12:21pm

bobbysands81 wrote: »

He seems a good operator whenever I've listened to him.

What's the verdict of him in Waterford?

I would have thought he'll comfortably take a seat?

He contested the General Election three times in the past and failed.But this time does look a lot promising for him.

Aquos76 · 31-01-2016 12:21pm

This is going to be a nightmare to mod

Please dont turn this into a current government bashing thread or a Waterford v Kilkenny thread(boundary extension issue) or for that matter, a Sinn Fein bashing thread. Lets try and keep things civil.

MRnotlob606 · 31-01-2016 12:23pm

Aquos76 wrote: »

This is going to be a nightmare to mod

Please dont turn this into a current government bashing thread or a Waterford v Kilkenny thread(boundary extension issue) or for that matter, a Sinn Fein bashing thread. Lets try and keep things civil.

Ahh yeah, Just thought it would be nice to have a civil discussion about the candidates. The other politics thread was dead.

KevIRL · 31-01-2016 12:45pm

Royal Legend wrote: »

Ciara Conway has a chance too

If Ciara Conway gets back in, then its been a very good election day for Labour and would make a mockery of the opinion polls to date.

Paddypower odds sum it up well

Deasy 1/50
Halligan 1/40
Cullinane 1/9
Coffey 4/11
Butler 4/6
Conway 4/1
20/1 or greater the rest.

Royal Legend · 31-01-2016 12:46pm

KevIRL wrote: »

If Ciara Conway gets back in, then its been a very good election day for Labour and would make a mockery of the opinion polls to date.

Paddypower odds sum it up well

Deasy 1/50
Halligan 1/40
Cullinane 1/9
Coffey 4/11
Butler 4/6
Conway 4/1
20/1 or greater the rest.

re-read my post

KevIRL · 31-01-2016 12:50pm

bobbysands81 wrote: »

He seems a good operator whenever I've listened to him.

What's the verdict of him in Waterford?

I would have thought he'll comfortably take a seat?

Near certain to get in. Only a massive swing against Sinn Fein nationally might stop him. Even then he probably would still get in given the poor quality of candidates on the left.

thomasm · 31-01-2016 11:29pm

Not getting the popularity of Cullinane. Why is he such a certainty

Wanderer78 · 31-01-2016 11:44pm

im sadly coming to the conclusion that our whole political system is now actually defunct. we re going backwards and fast, and very few of our politicians know what the hell is going on. something has to change and fast

Aquos76 · 31-01-2016 11:55pm

Waterford constituency will be featured on Newstalk breakfast at 7:45am in the morning and also Jonathan Healy's lucnhtime show also on Newstalk tomorrow from 12:30 to 1:30 is been broadcast from Dooleys Hotel

Wanderer78 · 31-01-2016 11:57pm

hustings in wit tomorrow main auditorium 5.30pm. obviously for students but sure we might just sneak in!

http://www.witsu.ie/events/general-elections-hustings/

MRnotlob606 · 01-02-2016 10:35am

thomasm wrote: »

Not getting the popularity of Cullinane. Why is he such a certainty

David Cullinane is probably the most popular candidate in the Waterford Constituency this time round.

longshanks · 01-02-2016 2:39pm

Maybe he's popular with you, he's definitely not with anyone I've spoken to.

Aquos76 · 01-02-2016 3:04pm

longshanks wrote: »

Maybe he's popular with you, he's definitely not with anyone I've spoken to.

I guess we'll see how popular he turns out to be at the end of the Month, so

Im going with

John Deasy
John Halligan
David Cullinane
with Paudie Coffey and Mary Butler battling it out for final seat, with Paudie probably just edging it

I really think FF have missed an opportunity not running a city based candidate though, I know Labour got Ciara Conway, a Dungarvan based Councillor at the time elected in 2011, but that was on the basis that most people just wanted FF out of power. I guess a lot feel the same way now about the labour Party, so maybe Mary had a great chance of getting elected.

Wanderer78 · 01-02-2016 4:33pm

Aquos76 wrote: »

I guess a lot feel the same way now about the labour Party, so maybe Mary had a great chance of getting elected.

sadly i feel theres nobody worthy not just here in waterford but nationwide. its gonna take a lot of convincing by our politicians that our situation can be changed.

Gael23 · 01-02-2016 7:07pm

Halligan
Deasy
Cullinane/possibly Coffey
4th seat between whichever doesn't get 3rd seat and Butler

MRnotlob606 · 01-02-2016 7:29pm

longshanks wrote: »

Maybe he's popular with you, he's definitely not with anyone I've spoken to.

I think he is popular with the majority of people in Waterford.Coffey,Deasy and Conway have done nothing but degrade this great city. They are culpable.

jmcc · 01-02-2016 8:06pm

Deasy.
Halligan.
Cullinane.
O'Sullivan.

Not sure the FF vote is still there. Labour has betrayed Waterford. O'Sullivan may do a lot better than accepted because the Greens will be seen as a "none of the above" option. Not sure yet how Mailo Power will do but she could cost Coffey his seats as a lot of the city FGers may opt for her rather than Coffey.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc · 01-02-2016 8:06pm

Deasy.
Halligan.
Cullinane.
O'Sullivan.

Not sure the FF vote is still there. Labour has betrayed Waterford. O'Sullivan may do a lot better than accepted because the Greens will be seen as a "none of the above" option. Not sure yet how Mailo Power will do but she could cost Coffey his seats as a lot of the city FGers may opt for her rather than Coffey.

Regards...jmcc

iseegirls · 01-02-2016 8:29pm

Deasy seemed to have gone into a 4 Year hibernation period. I honestly haven't heard anything from him at all since he was elected. Why is he deemed so popular?

deisemum · 01-02-2016 8:34pm

I listened to the debate on Newstalk at lunchtime, god it was depressing. I think David Cullinane came across the best, Ciara Conway came across as the most insincere, Mary Butler was bordering on hysterical and Paudie Coffey was woeful and his usual grumpy and pompous self.

Most of my friends voted for Ciara Conway at the last election because they wanted to see a female representative but they will not be voting for her this time round.

ei9go · 01-02-2016 8:35pm

It must be the only city without a candidate from any of the three "major" parties.

FF can't get a seat without a second candidate as witnessed by Brendan Kenneally last time because they have nowhere to get transfers.

Greens are banjaxed by the "McCann" factor so have no hope.

Can't see the candidate of the Taliban party doing very well.

jmcc · 01-02-2016 9:04pm

deisemum wrote: »

Most of my friends voted for Ciara Conway at the last election because they wanted to see a female representative but they will not be voting for her this time round.

So will they be voting for O'Sullivan? (One of my phase of the Moon theories that the Greens will be providing a kind of respectable choice for people who don't want to vote FF/FG/Lab.)

Regards...jmcc

jmcc · 01-02-2016 9:07pm

ei9go wrote: »

Greens are banjaxed by the "McCann" factor so have no hope.

Don't think that McCann is a Green member or candidate.

Can't see the candidate of the Taliban party doing very well.

If the Taliban = Renua (the Greens are referred to as the Cycling Taliban on another forum), then you might be wrong as there is a chance that the FG vote in the city and perhaps Dunmore may go to Mailo Power.

Regards...jmcc

MRnotlob606 · 01-02-2016 9:26pm

Butler being Fianna Fáils waterford candidate is disastrous in my opinion.Because Fianna Fáil have a substantial amount of city councilors and did not put forward any of them - it looks like it could cause some problems.

Why not Murphy ? Quinlan or Mulligan ?

Looks like she was chosen for the gender quota, as I don't think many in the city know her.

MRnotlob606 · 01-02-2016 9:26pm

Butler being Fianna Fáils waterford candidate is disastrous in my opinion.Because Fianna Fáil have a substantial amount of city councilors and did not put forward any of them - it looks like it could cause some problems.

Why not Murphy ? Quinlan or Mulligan ?

Looks like she was chosen for the gender quota, as I don't think many in the city know her.

longshanks · 01-02-2016 10:30pm

The problem with Cullinane is he'll bow down to Gerry's every whim, Gerry bows down to the likes of Slab Murphy et al.
None of the Sinn Fein candidates anywhere in the country will admit that their leaders are questionable, and people remember that when they vote.
I know all parties candidates have to row in behind their leaders, but the cult like following with Sinn Fein is what will affect them when people vote.
Time will tell.

fuzzy dunlop · 01-02-2016 10:46pm

longshanks wrote: »

The problem with Cullinane is he'll bow down to Gerry's every whim, Gerry bows down to the likes of Slab Murphy et al.
None of the Sinn Fein candidates anywhere in the country will admit that their leaders are questionable, and people remember that when they vote.
I know all parties candidates have to row in behind their leaders, but the cult like following with Sinn Fein is what will affect them when people vote.
Time will tell.

Sinn Fein are less of a cult than FG in fairness. Anyone who doesn't drink the FG Koolaid quickly gets their political career destroyed. George Lee, Peter Matthews and Creighton are testament to that. Not to mention our own John Deasy whose political career has been vindictively kept in the Doldrums simply because he highlights Kennys obvious deficiencies. The SF cult myth is the FG pot calling the kettle black.

1gunsnroses · 01-02-2016 11:00pm

Some terrible politicians in Waterford, deasy Conway and Coffey getting in would be heartbreaking, Cullinane seems like the most likely to be of good change for the city as the others don't have the plums for it

Cabaal · 02-02-2016 7:07am

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

Sinn Fein are less of a cult than FG in fairness. Anyone who doesn't drink the FG Koolaid quickly gets their political career destroyed. George Lee, Peter Matthews and Creighton are testament to that. Not to mention our own John Deasy whose political career has been vindictively kept in the Doldrums simply because he highlights Kennys obvious deficiencies. The SF cult myth is the FG pot calling the kettle black.

SF have the same leader for 30 years, can you find me other political partys that have not changed leader in 30 years? Do you not find that a little unsettling?

Chip Whitley · 02-02-2016 2:31pm

I'm not a big political follower guys, but anytime I've seen Deasys name being mentioned it's because someone is giving out about him, saying he goes missing and doesn't do anything for Waterford. I've heard this a lot tbh. If this is the case, why are people so sure he'll do well and is topping everyones lists here?

Like I say, I don't know enough about certain individuals/party policies, but of the lists above I have dealt with Cullinane, O'Sullivan and Mulligan through my work on and off down through the years and found them to be really genuinely nice people. In particular Grace O'Sullivan, so an a personal note, I hope she'll do well.

Cabaal · 02-02-2016 2:58pm

Might be of interest

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2016/02/02/rich-tea/

Waterford Renua candidate and hotel owner Mailo Power talks to William Campbell of the Here’s How [current affairs] podcast on her party’s controversial flat tax plan.

Mailo Power defends her party’s plans for taxation. People on six-figure salaries will get huge tax cuts, someone on €200k get an extra €45k in their pocket. People lower down the scale? They get an incentive to work harder…

Podcast here http://blog.hereshow.ie/2016/02/heres-how-27-mailo-power-of-renua/?ref=broadsheet020216

Tax cuts for the rich! Nice if you can have it I suppose, as a hotel owner I suppose it'll work out great for her.
Here's the hotel http://www.athenaeumhousehotel.com/

mooseknunkle · 02-02-2016 4:28pm

Cabaal wrote: »

SF have the same leader for 30 years, can you find me other political partys that have not changed leader in 30 years? Do you not find that a little unsettling?

Out of curiosity and im not one bit political,but why would you find it unsettling that someone is a leader for 30 years?,i know a lot of people who would be in the same job for 30+ years.

Cabaal · 02-02-2016 4:45pm

mooseknunkle wrote: »

Out of curiosity and im not one bit political,but why would you find it unsettling that someone is a leader for 30 years?,i know a lot of people who would be in the same job for 30+ years.

I find it unsettling because when it comes to politics and governments the only leaders I know of in power for that long are dictators. It's unsettling that nobody was willing to challenge him. Unless you can find me a few partys where the same leader is in power for 30+ years other then SF?

Change in a party is good, any party, regardless of what they stand for. It would be an utter disaster if every party had the same leader for 30 decades+ and nobody every challenged them and replaced them.

1gunsnroses · 02-02-2016 4:53pm

Cabaal wrote: »

I find it unsettling because when it comes to politics and governments the only leaders I know of in power for that long are dictators. It's unsettling that nobody was willing to challenge him. Unless you can find me a few partys where the same leader is in power for 30+ years other then SF?

Change in a party is good, any party, regardless of what they stand for. It would be an utter disaster if every party had the same leader for 30 decades+ and nobody every challenged them and replaced them.

Total rubbish look what happened with Manchester United

hardybuck · 02-02-2016 5:22pm

mooseknunkle wrote: »

Out of curiosity and im not one bit political,but why would you find it unsettling that someone is a leader for 30 years?,i know a lot of people who would be in the same job for 30+ years.

Extremely unusual in a leadership situation. Well, apart from dictatorships.

hardybuck · 02-02-2016 5:40pm

Grace O'Sullivan may actually surprise some people. In the 2014 European Elections she came within 0.4% of Labour's only candidate who was a sitting MEP and FF's second candidate. She got almost 28k first preference votes, but FF's second candidate got a lot (20k) of transfers off Brian Crowley.

I think O'Sullivan was thrown in fairly late into that election, and with it being such a vast electoral area you can imagine that she wouldn't have had much profile in the likes of Clare, Kerry, Wicklow et al. So it'll be interesting to see how she gets on this time around.

Another poster mentioned a substantial number of FF councillors in the city? They have four, out of a total of 18 in the city wards. I think all of them are pretty much rookies, and one of them was elected as an independent.

I think Butler will suffer from having a low profile in the city and Dungarvan. Her home patch is also home to a Minister of State. There will be a FF hardcore in the county going back though, which they'll hope to resurrect.

Cabaal · 02-02-2016 5:40pm

1gunsnroses wrote: »

Total rubbish look what happened with Manchester United

Man Utd is a political party now?
No doubt it has corruption on levels, but I don;t think that makes it a political party

crazy_kenny · 02-02-2016 6:33pm

Coffee has to be re elected in my opinion. He seems to be moving up in Fine Gael and may be a minister soon. Its the only way Waterford will be treated the same as other areas. I feel a bit sorry for Ciara Conway. What more can she do being part of a minority government?

jmcc · 02-02-2016 6:58pm

crazy_kenny wrote: »

Coffee has to be re elected in my opinion. He seems to be moving up in Fine Gael and may be a minister soon.

That would be Minister for State, Paudie Coffey?

Regards...jmcc

The Bowling Alley · 02-02-2016 7:41pm

jmcc wrote: »

That would be Minister for State, Paudie Coffey?

Regards...jmcc

Junior Minister.

Regards

The fucking bowling alley

fuzzy dunlop · 02-02-2016 11:37pm

Cabaal wrote: »

SF have the same leader for 30 years, can you find me other political partys that have not changed leader in 30 years? Do you not find that a little unsettling?

Why would I? The party is going in the right direction with regard to electoral success.The SF leadership is an issue for SinnFein. Generally its SF's opponents that come out with this as if they are concerned out of the goodness of their hearts. As a statesman Gerry Adams has more gravitas then MM or EK even with his background. And lets be honest its not as if he has his work cut out for him in comparison to Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin or Shrill Joan Burton for that matter. Enda Kenny is a ticking time bomb for FG. At some point his handlers will have to let him debate with the grown ups and he will be really seen for the light weight he is. It's gas that FG are looking at Donald Trump for inspiration on how Enda Kenny can avoid debates.

fuzzy dunlop · 02-02-2016 11:56pm

iseegirls wrote: »

Deasy seemed to have gone into a 4 Year hibernation period. I honestly haven't heard anything from him at all since he was elected. Why is he deemed so popular?

I think he benefits from the conservative rural voters in the county to be honest. Look at the results of the locals. It was the City and Tramore that gave the government parties a bloody nose. Its typically rural electorates where the FG vote held. So unfortunately no matter what happens Deasy will get the votes including sitting on his swiss role for the last four years not earning his salary. Conway won't have this luxury nor will Coffey.

Wanderer78 · 03-02-2016 12:27am

i really wish the people of ireland would do some research into whats actually going on globally regarding our political and economic systems. all is not well in the world of neoliberalism!

hardybuck · 03-02-2016 1:36am

In fairness to Deasy he is a member of the Public Accounts Committee who today were grilling the HSE's Director General about that horrendous abuse case in the South East.

Gardner · 03-02-2016 2:11am

Am i the only one who thinks Cullinane is going to struggle to take a seat?

in the 2011 GE he polled 5,342 1st pref votes and by the time he went out on the 10th count he only increased his vote by 956 when there was 8,795 transferable votes (9.5%).

Furthermore, 54k people voted in the last GE with 15 candidates. GE16 has 9 taking up the running which may decrease people coming out to vote.

when looking at the 9 candidates it is safe to say Milo Power, Grace O Sullivan, Una Dunphy and Ciara Conway will all be gone before Cullinane. the only transfers Cullinane is likely to get is from Una Dunphy but John Halligan will take a sizable amount of these also. After that Cullinane would be lucky to get 600 votes in transfers from the other 3 candidates.

lets look at it like this incorporating opinion polls %........ 51k people vote:
(based on 1st pref votes)

John Deasy 10,000 (just down from GE11).
John Halligan 8,500 (will pick up from middle class vote and Seamus Ryan not running from GE11)
David Cullinane 8,000 (up 2.7k votes from 2011)
Paudie Coffey 7,000 (Sh!t talk about him been minister will get votes)
Mary Butler 7,000 (remember in GE11 Kenneally got 7500 1st pref when FF were toxic and there less toxic now, depending who you ask).
Ciara Conway 4,000 (Labour polled 10k 1st pref in GE11)
Grace O Sullivan 2,500 (Tramore - female vote that Conway loses)
Una Dunphy 2,000 (WP and female vote)
Milo Power 1,500 (loony tune vote)

So Cullinane is well below the quota. as stated when the 4 likely below candidates are eliminated there will be possibly 10k transferable votes again. say he gets 1k of those, he is sitting at 9000ish.

Power's votes (1200) will go to FG +FF so Coffey and Butler are already catching.

Dunphy is next to go with about 2000 transfers including Powers 3rd pref etc.). Halligan 700 Cullinane 700 and balance to rest (Cullinane at 8700).

O Sullivan goes next, Cullinane likely to pick up 300 odd votes from about 2500 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain here considerably.

Conway is next to go with about 4000 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain with Cullinane likely to get about 300.

so this makes Cullinane on about 9,200ish.

i expect Deasy, Halligan and Coffey to be ahead. Cullinane and Butler will be head to head! id expect a recount!!!!

my prediction: 2 FG 1 IND and 1 FF/SF

btw im not anti SF i just looking at realistically with figures.

2016 General Election Waterford

Comments