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Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

JCX BXC

The summer is almost over (a week left) and with such a disappointing season I'm starting to think about winter.

What weather effects should we expect from'El Niño'?

Mod Note
We agreed last year to confine sensationalist tabloid weather stories to the Weather in the Media thread so please post any tabloid headlines/links there.
Thanks

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KingdomRushed

I'm waiting for tonight's ECM operational run keenly. If that shows more pronounced ridging toward Santa land, then I'm going to call it as a pending 'cold spell'...a mid January one at that.....

Speak Now

Meh....unless I see Polar bears coming down the Liffey

Musicman2000

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Meh....unless I see Polar bears coming down the Liffey

lol I can understand some of the glass half full posts. Normally any decent cold spells implode before they get to our shores or we are on the edge while the UK & Europe are in the freezer. BUT its hard not to get excited looking at some of the morning runs. Looking forward to the 12z's

ronnie3585

A lot of chatter about today's charts over on Netweather too. Won't be long til the gutter-press get a hold of this and we can look forward to days of measured headlines like DEATH FREEZE 2016 etc.

downwiththatsor

ronnie3585 wrote: »

A lot of chatter about today's charts over on Netweather too. Won't be long til the gutter-press get a hold of this and we can look forward to days of measured headlines like DEATH FREEZE 2016 etc.

Two feet of snow only

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/631670/Flood-Britain-misery-Arctic-blast-UK-weather

Gonzo

I really hope this works out, not just for the sake of snow but to shut the atlantic down for a few weeks, we really need a break from the constant rain and wild winds! Having said that a rerun of 2010 beast from the east would do very nicely indeed! After 5 winters without a decent snowfall it's about time we get something good this year!.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

I really hope this works out, not just for the sake of snow but to shut the atlantic down for a few weeks, we really need a break from the constant rain and wild winds

This more then anything else, is why i hope it happens, i dont care if i don't see a snowflake, iv'e had water lying around the house 7 times since november 1st and the ground is mush, i just want dry weather

maquiladora

Cold spell looking increasingly likely for next week.

Whether it could be a snap or something of longer duration is impossible to say yet, since it depends on numerous hemispheric-wide things to take place to determine that. Same goes for the depth of cold and whether it will be a mostly dry spell or not, it's far too soon to say.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Just for fun..

[Deleted User]

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold spell looking increasingly likely for next week.

Whether it could be a snap or something of longer duration is impossible to say yet, since it depends on numerous hemispheric-wide things to take place to determine that. Same goes for the depth of cold and whether it will be a mostly dry spell or not, it's far too soon to say.

A week is too soon away to forecast what will happen? (Even with all the variables) yet a while back i was ridiculed on here for suggesting that irelands weather cant be predicted 2/3 months ahead and anyone that thinks it can is full of spoof and waffle.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

A week is too soon away to forecast what will happen? (Even with all the variables) yet a while back i was ridiculed on here for suggesting that irelands weather cant be predicted 2/3 months ahead and anyone that thinks it can is full of spoof and waffle.

You seem to remember that, but do you remember all the times (Futilely it seems) that we explain what you MIGHT be able to forecast, and then what you MIGHT NOT be able to forecast.

We want discuss the weather, all you seem to want to do is destroy the discussions. Why?

[Deleted User]

Carnacalla wrote: »

You seem to remember that, but do you remember all the times (Futilely it seems) that we explain what you MIGHT be able to forecast, and then what you MIGHT NOT be able to forecast.

We want discuss the weather, all you seem to want to do is destroy the discussions. Why?

Sorry i am not falling into that trap.me giving an opinion about being able or not being able to long range irelands weather forecast IS discussing the weather.anyway im not going to drag that argument up again,i just thought it was funny the way it was said that next week is too far away to predict,but 2 or 3 months is fine. You can see where i am coming from i hope.

maquiladora

droidman123 wrote: »

Sorry i am not falling into that trap.me giving an opinion about being able or not being able to long range irelands weather forecast IS discussing the weather.anyway im not going to drag that argument up again,i just thought it was funny the way it was said that next week is too far away to predict,but 2 or 3 months is fine. You can see where i am coming from i hope.

But next week is not too far away to forecast, hence the increasing likelihood of a cold spell next week.
What is too far away to forecast is the detail: for how long, exactly how cold, how much precipitation.

Cantona's Collars

ronnie3585

^^

Looking at Friday:

[Deleted User]

maquiladora wrote: »

But next week is not too far away to forecast, hence the increasing likelihood of a cold spell next week.
What is too far away to forecast is the detail: for how long, exactly how cold, how much precipitation.

Fair enough

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

Sorry i am not falling into that trap.me giving an opinion about being able or not being able to long range irelands weather forecast IS discussing the weather.anyway im not going to drag that argument up again,i just thought it was funny the way it was said that next week is too far away to predict,but 2 or 3 months is fine. You can see where i am coming from i hope.

Giving an opinion, and forcing your opinion in a patronising way is different. I respect your opinion, I think they are mostly hot air, but forcing your opinion on other again only causing arguing IMO.

[Deleted User]

Carnacalla wrote: »

Giving an opinion, and forcing your opinion in a patronising way is different. I respect your opinion, I think they are mostly hot air, but forcing your opinion on other again only causing arguing IMO.

"Forcing my opinion"? Not sure what you mean,i give my opinion,some people dont like it and thats fine,but its all about healthy debate.you accused me of trying to destroy the discussion on here, which i hope you can see now is not the case.moving on,roll on (hopefully) this cold snap and hopefully a bit of snow for dublin

ronnie3585

Ah lads, would you put down the handbags - you're ruining the best run of charts for the last number of years for everyone!

sryanbruen

ronnie3585 wrote: »

Ah lads, would you put down the handbags - you're ruining the best run of charts for the last number of years for everyone!

Yep, I have had my first big "joy smile" in quite some time thanks to this ongoing cold spell!

aboyro

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold spell looking increasingly likely for next week.

Whether it could be a snap or something of longer duration is impossible to say yet, since it depends on numerous hemispheric-wide things to take place to determine that. Same goes for the depth of cold and whether it will be a mostly dry spell or not, it's far too soon to say.

Mac, any opinions or facts on a prolonged cold spell with a strong el nino. has it happened before??? or could it be a first.

also has anyone any info on whether or not storm frank is/was the cause of this disruption at the N pole??

Speak Now

ronnie3585 wrote: »

^^

Looking at Friday:

Friday Week!

sryanbruen

aboyro wrote: »

Mac, any opinions or facts on a prolonged cold spell with a strong el nino. has it happened before??? or could it be a first.

also has anyone any info on whether or not storm frank is/was the cause of this disruption at the N pole??

Yes it was according to news that I have seen. And yes also, it does look like the first strong El Nino with an expected cold spell (all my strong El Nino Winter months were all warmer than normal up to December 2015 inclusive)

Speak Now

aboyro wrote: »

Mac, any opinions or facts on a prolonged cold spell with a strong el nino. has it happened before??? or could it be a first.

also has anyone any info on whether or not storm frank is/was the cause of this disruption at the N pole??

2009 El Nino - Nov Flooding and Dec freeze

2015 El Nino - Dec Flooding and Jan Freeze????

Not very scientific I know LOL!

I think 82/83 has a strong El Nino and we got an Easterly in Feb.

maquiladora

aboyro wrote: »

Mac, any opinions or facts on a prolonged cold spell with a strong el nino. has it happened before??? or could it be a first.

also has anyone any info on whether or not storm frank is/was the cause of this disruption at the N pole??

72-73 was a strong El Nino and we still got heavy snow in Feb 73.

But there hasn't been many strong El Nino's and there hasn't been too many prolonged cold spells either, so I'm not really sure about any concrete correlations. There are other factors that influence the atmosphere apart from ENSO, especially in this part of the world.

sryanbruen

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

2009 El Nino - Nov Flooding and Dec freeze

2015 El Nino - Dec Flooding and Jan Freeze????

The 2009 El Nino wasn't "STRONG" though :cool: but I see what you're saying

sryanbruen

May I ask anybody, before November 2009, when was Ireland's previous wettest month on record?

It is mad how I seen comparisons with the Winter of 1997 / 98 (with Storm Eva in particular) but now it is completely matching 2009 / 10 just different months.

2009 / 10

November: Exceptionally wet (second wettest month on record now) and mild. Sunny though.
December: Becoming very cold, sunny and dry after a wet and windy start.
January: Very cold, sunny and dry.

2015 / 16

December: Exceptionally wet (wettest month on record) and warm. Dull also.
January: Relatively wet so far (like December 2009) and mild (not particularly so, like December 2009!). Relatively sunny in places (like December 2009!)

I see a repeat!

pad199207

Okay I'm excited now ❄️⛄️❄️⛄️❄️⛄️

teddybones

WheatenBriar wrote: »

We'd need minus nines,but its complex because,there'd be a large volume of surface to 5000ft cold air and dewpoints coming in the wake of that,which means temps at 850 level don't need to be as low,if you get me?
Lets see

Thanks. Will be glued to the forum for forseeable.

gerrybhoy