Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone · 15-12-2015 07:58AM

kowtow wrote: »

Dawg is in France, and I wish we could grow it here!

I have a look at the grains market every morning. There is a glut of grains in the planet. I'm trying to buy a bit of fert Atm and I will offload some wheat at the same time. The outlook is bad for the whole of '16.
This will have an immediate impact on milk. I honestly cannot see where a price increase will come from, other than a major weather event. Apologies for the pessimistic post.

Milked out · 15-12-2015 08:43AM

Dawggone wrote: »

I have a look at the grains market every morning. There is a glut of grains in the planet. I'm trying to buy a bit of fert Atm and I will offload some wheat at the same time. The outlook is bad for the whole of '16.
This will have an immediate impact on milk. I honestly cannot see where a price increase will come from, other than a major weather event. Apologies for the pessimistic post.

Read a piece from Constantine gorgiev, spelling def wrong there, he was at some economics conference where some one said to go buying oil as it's so low, possibly in jest, but he basically said after that it could be a number of years before the commodities begin to pick up again and could def not see it happening in the next 12 months

Milked out · 15-12-2015 08:53AM

Feckin stock bull decided he'd hit the town last nite and called in to the heifers the bollix. Seems to be only one bulling. If she holds ill leave her be will be starting ai jan 1st so not worth messing with

kevthegaff · 15-12-2015 10:00AM

Had a cow calved last night, dont understand how?? She is milking but since has feck all milk, will she start producing again. Drying off the herd this weekend, what are my options with her?

mahoney_j · 15-12-2015 10:18AM

kevthegaff wrote: »

Had a cow calved last night, dont understand how?? She is milking but since has feck all milk, will she start producing again. Drying off the herd this weekend, what are my options with her?

Tube her and forget about it Kev ,off load to Mart in janurary .was it abortion ,if there's a foetus get it tested as I'm hearing of lots of salmonella abortions lately

frazzledhome · 15-12-2015 11:04AM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Tube her and forget about it Kev ,off load to Mart in janurary .was it abortion ,if there's a foetus get it tested as I'm hearing of lots of salmonella abortions lately

+1

kowtow · 15-12-2015 11:07AM

Milked out wrote: »

Read a piece from Constantine gorgiev, spelling def wrong there, he was at some economics conference where some one said to go buying oil as it's so low, possibly in jest, but he basically said after that it could be a number of years before the commodities begin to pick up again and could def not see it happening in the next 12 months

Constantin has his head screwed on the right way.

Needs new elbow patches though.

kowtow · 15-12-2015 11:12AM

Dawggone wrote: »

I have a look at the grains market every morning. There is a glut of grains in the planet. I'm trying to buy a bit of fert Atm and I will offload some wheat at the same time. The outlook is bad for the whole of '16.
This will have an immediate impact on milk. I honestly cannot see where a price increase will come from, other than a major weather event. Apologies for the pessimistic post.

Yup, everyone has been told to expect volatility -

which most likely means long, slow, consistent strangulation - anything but volatility. If that is the case then how much it hurts (and I suppose whether or not the EU supply tap gets turned off at all) is going to be down to the Euro-dollar for the foreseeable future.

frazzledhome · 15-12-2015 11:13AM

Dawggone wrote: »

I have a look at the grains market every morning. There is a glut of grains in the planet. I'm trying to buy a bit of fert Atm and I will offload some wheat at the same time. The outlook is bad for the whole of '16.
This will have an immediate impact on milk. I honestly cannot see where a price increase will come from, other than a major weather event. Apologies for the pessimistic post.

I think you're on the ball. At a meeting yesterday and out look for all of 2016 not good. While price cuts are unlikely increases are equally unlikely.

On the plus side China seem to be munching their way through their stocks of powder and are back in the market. Fonterra are selling soft and are undercutting competitors product into lower return African markets.

They seem to be doing their best to keep the GDT alive despite the fact that it's clearly s failed venture. Intervention and Aps doesn't have the volumes expected in them and Aps isn't as attractive as the product must now be kept in storage for longer despite the rate rise.

On Fert I took a punt on some Urea last Friday, seems like good value and considering the discount I'd say merchants must be expecting a drop in price. I did nothing on P&k yet.

kowtow · 15-12-2015 11:21AM

frazzledhome wrote: »

I think you're on the ball. At a meeting yesterday and out look for all of 2016 not good. While price cuts are unlikely increases are equally unlikely.

The added entertainment for 2016 will be seeing the true state of the co-ops balance sheets. I am certain there are some that won't be able to continue to prop up the price as they did this year, at least without some big changes.

Unpopular as it sounds I suspect GIIL will look a little less mean by the end of 2016, at least within the context of their product mix and volumes.

Internationally I think there is some shaking yet to do. Huge flash-fall in the price of traded butter on the CME the other day, second biggest on record (22% odd?) I think... rumblings before a rebalancing.

keep going · 15-12-2015 11:22AM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Tube her and forget about it Kev ,off load to Mart in janurary .was it abortion ,if there's a foetus get it tested as I'm hearing of lots of salmonella abortions lately

carried one to the lab yesterday and as i was dropping it off got talking one of the technicans who said a bit of everything but mostly negatives showing up

WheatenBriar · 15-12-2015 11:33AM

The GII fixed milk and feed price letter made me laugh at its wording..
Apparently if we take it and the fixed feed price we are protecting our profit margin

Glanbia farmers are making a profit on milk this year? Haha good one...

RightTurnClyde · 15-12-2015 12:12PM

keep going wrote: »

carried one to the lab yesterday and as i was dropping it off got talking one of the technicans who said a bit of everything but mostly negatives showing up

I had two abortions here in the space of a couple of days last week. Lab results showed up nothing.

Dawggone · 15-12-2015 01:23PM

kowtow wrote: »

Yup, everyone has been told to expect volatility -

which most likely means long, slow, consistent strangulation - anything but volatility. If that is the case then how much it hurts (and I suppose whether or not the EU supply tap gets turned off at all) is going to be down to the Euro-dollar for the foreseeable future.

+1.
Maybe €/$ parity in the new year??

Argentina removed export tariffs on grains and beef yesterday...lovely.

French wheat harvest this year biggest on record, but luckily currency (and quality) helping to find a home for it.

U.S. had the second biggest maize harvest in history and ethanol production not feasible with price of oil.

Depressing.

Dawggone · 15-12-2015 01:43PM

frazzledhome wrote: »

On Fert I took a punt on some Urea last Friday, seems like good value and considering the discount I'd say merchants must be expecting a drop in price. I did nothing on P&k yet.

I've been offered urea at €340.
How close am I ?

Family at home offered CAN + S sub €300 and it was snapped up.

kowtow · 15-12-2015 01:44PM

Dawggone wrote: »

+1.
Maybe €/$ parity in the new year??

Argentina removed export tariffs on grains and beef yesterday...lovely.

French wheat harvest this year biggest on record, but luckily currency (and quality) helping to find a home for it.

U.S. had the second biggest maize harvest in history and ethanol production not feasible with price of oil.

Depressing.

Yup, and add to that Russia threatening sub $30bbl oil..

Taken together, the commodity complex just doesn't feel the way it has for the last decade or so. As a matter of fact it feels more normal.

Markets in general look a bit febrile, 2016 will be interesting for the Euro. I can't see Mario's bazooka working indefinitely, Brexit referendum will be a catalyst for something, Le Pen effect in France? - in general we are living - as the Chinese curse goes - in interesting times.

We should maybe be careful what we wish for - if the Euro stays down it could be because we need to prepare for a return to the punt.

The one strategic mistake I see Ireland making again and again is the chippy contempt for it's nearest neighbour, in agriculture as in so many things our interests are more closely aligned than we might wish them to be.

frazzledhome · 15-12-2015 02:08PM

Dawggone wrote: »

I've been offered urea at €340.
How close am I ?

Family at home offered CAN + S sub €300 and it was snapped up.

Couldn't comment

Timmaay · 15-12-2015 02:19PM

Protein crash continuing, 3.28 now uuughh.

Dawggone · 15-12-2015 02:23PM

kowtow wrote: »

Yup, and add to that Russia threatening sub $30bbl oil..

Taken together, the commodity complex just doesn't feel the way it has for the last decade or so. As a matter of fact it feels more normal.

Markets in general look a bit febrile, 2016 will be interesting for the Euro. I can't see Mario's bazooka working indefinitely, Brexit referendum will be a catalyst for something, Le Pen effect in France? - in general we are living - as the Chinese curse goes - in interesting times.

We should maybe be careful what we wish for - if the Euro stays down it could be because we need to prepare for a return to the punt.

The one strategic mistake I see Ireland making again and again is the chippy contempt for it's nearest neighbour, in agriculture as in so many things our interests are more closely aligned than we might wish them to be.

Correct.

You're right, the commodity markets now look more normal. China changing to a market economy skewed the whole complex for quite a while.
I know that you are a believer in the market. I'm not. Too much interference.
Volatility, as seen now in markets is relatively new. It arrived on the scene with globalization. Before that we had we had 7/8 yrs of low demand/stagnation followed by 7/8 yrs of good demand. I've lived through a few of these cycles and I actually believed that volatility was the new norm. Looks increasingly more likely that it's back to the old norm now of long prolonged periods of highs and lows...

Brexit won't have too much reprocussions to the euro project. However if Le Pen and Co. get into power here the euro is finished and France will align itself a lot closer to Russia.

UK/Ireland are tied at the hip, always have and always will. Civil war politics have been a stumbling block to up front cohesion between the near neighbours.
I don't think that a Brexit would harm the Irish economy but it would hurt the euro.

Le Pen must have the power brokers in Brussels sweating...

Milked out · 15-12-2015 02:30PM

Timmaay wrote: »

Protein crash continuing, 3.28 now uuughh.

Whats bf and lactose tim

Timmaay · 15-12-2015 02:35PM

Milked out wrote: »

Whats bf and lactose tim

4.26 bf 4.65 lactose

kevthegaff · 15-12-2015 02:36PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Tube her and forget about it Kev ,off load to Mart in janurary .was it abortion ,if there's a foetus get it tested as I'm hearing of lots of salmonella abortions lately

nah calf is perfect, bull must have broken in

kevthegaff · 15-12-2015 02:43PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Correct.

You're right, the commodity markets now look more normal. China changing to a market economy skewed the whole complex for quite a while.
I know that you are a believer in the market. I'm not. Too much interference.
Volatility, as seen now in markets is relatively new. It arrived on the scene with globalization. Before that we had we had 7/8 yrs of low demand/stagnation followed by 7/8 yrs of good demand. I've lived through a few of these cycles and I actually believed that volatility was the new norm. Looks increasingly more likely that it's back to the old norm now of long prolonged periods of highs and lows...

Brexit won't have too much reprocussions to the euro project. However if Le Pen and Co. get into power here the euro is finished and France will align itself a lot closer to Russia.

UK/Ireland are tied at the hip, always have and always will. Civil war politics have been a stumbling block to up front cohesion between the near neighbours.
I don't think that a Brexit would harm the Irish economy but it would hurt the euro.

Le Pen must have the power brokers in Brussels sweating...

Le pen not struggle at recent local elections? Thought after attacks support would soar..

blackdog1 · 15-12-2015 04:11PM

Timmaay wrote: »

4.26 bf 4.65 lactose

Your lactose is very low if your winter milking. Maybe a nutritionist might be an idea

Timmaay · 15-12-2015 04:37PM

blackdog1 wrote: »

Your lactose is very low if your winter milking. Maybe a nutritionist might be an idea

Only 9 out of 60 are autumn calving, rest are calving March onwards.

mahoney_j · 15-12-2015 04:47PM

blackdog1 wrote: »

Your lactose is very low if your winter milking. Maybe a nutritionist might be an idea

+1 for nutritionist ,diet appears lacking in energy and protein .nutritionist will give u a balanced diet based around what forage your feeding and a balanced meal/nut mix

whelan2 · 15-12-2015 06:13PM

Got a text there for water in the milk while I was away!

Greengrass1 · 15-12-2015 06:20PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

+1 for nutritionist ,diet appears lacking in energy and protein .nutritionist will give u a balanced diet based around what forage your feeding and a balanced meal/nut mix

Started feeding 1.5 kg of beet pulp and 1.5 kg of barley here.
Collection was this morning waiting for bf to take a clime

Bf currently at 4.8 same date in 2014 4.48
Pr currently at 3.59 same date in 2014 3.48

Milked out · 15-12-2015 06:36PM

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Started feeding 1.5 kg of beet pulp and 1.5 kg of barley here.
Collection was this morning waiting for bf to take a clime

Bf currently at 4.8 same date in 2014 4.48
Pr currently at 3.59 same date in 2014 3.48

Sticking with the higher p ration gg?

mahoney_j · 15-12-2015 06:51PM

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Started feeding 1.5 kg of beet pulp and 1.5 kg of barley here.
Collection was this morning waiting for bf to take a clime

Bf currently at 4.8 same date in 2014 4.48
Pr currently at 3.59 same date in 2014 3.48

The auld diet feeder is useful after all ,that's great solids for this time of year .at 12.5 ltrs 5.54 fat 4.12 p here on last collection .50% of herd still milking oad .be fully dry next Monday am .cant wait !!!!

Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

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