The return of the season long €20k challenge

chompdown · 02-08-2015 2:04pm #1

Here we go again. I've been doing these for a few years now. One bet per month with season long selections. I've won one €25k and been close a couple of other times. Failed miserabley with some too

I plan to stake about €100 to €200 per month max, and tend to go for trebles or fourfolds with total odds between 100/1 and 300/1

Generally speaking, I like to include one long shot with two or three at around evens to 4/1. Experience tells me that these have been the most successful.

The aim is to win approximately €20k but also to stop me betting on day to day stuff. I have my one bet per month and that keeps me happy. This has been great tonic to keep me away from dark days chasing losses. So here we go with the first bet which I will mark down for July

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.40
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0

Total odds: 296.5
Stake €96 / £67.5

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

Looking forward to next week already!

All in all · 05-08-2015 12:33pm

Good luck with this. Followed your last thread with interest.
I like your thinking on it.

kerosene · 08-08-2015 8:22am

Best of luck chompdown, I do a similar bet in gaa and soccer as well, I hope you have a good year.

chompdown · 11-08-2015 1:32pm

A positive start is a always a good start and as I update the odds, I see they have shortened.

These bets almost always shorten after the first weekend, so if I could figure out a way to capitalise on that I would make slow but steady profits. Now it's an all or nothing approach.

Anyway, nice to see Bournemouth start with a home defeat against a fellow relegation candidate (Villa sans Benteke!)

Colchester drew at home to Blackpool but it's hard to know what kind of result that is.

Barnet were beaten at home against a good Leyton Orient side but apparently were on top in the first half with Akinde looking dangerous.

Rangers already are joint top, with main rivals Hibs losing.

Here are the latest odds!

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 2.3
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.1
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.33
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 34.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 218.4

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

chompdown · 19-08-2015 11:04pm

Another great few days for my first bet of the season. Very happy with the selections so far, as in previous years I've waited a few games before putting the money down.

Bournemouth looked decent at Anfield but lost. Colchester picked up 1 point from two games, Rangers won again, but most importantly John Akinde scored 2 on Tuesday night.

Barnet have started with three very difficult fixtures so for Akinde to have 2 goals from that start, it's impressive. Irish lad Barry Corr is banging them in for Cambridge but let's see if that lasts. Here are the updated odds:

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 2.3
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.2
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.17
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 21.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 124.2

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

chompdown · 24-08-2015 4:50pm

A bit of a mixed bag this weekend with Bournemouth winning away to West Ham. I was very impressed with the Hammers when they played Arsenal, but they've lost both league games since then. That win will be a boost for Bournemouth and I was hoping the monkey on the back of not winning would have stayed around longer.

Barnet lost again with no goals for Akinde. He has 2 in 4 games, but they have played 3 of the top 4 teams at the moment. I feel Barnet will improve and the Akinde goals will continue at a rate of one in two. That will be enough to make him top scorer.

Colchester were hammered 4-0 and Ranger won 1-0 against their biggest rivals Hibs. Nothing spectacular this week, but the odds have drifted significantly because of that Bournemouth win. An over reaction from the bookies I feel.

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 3.5
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.1
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.11
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 26.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 212.1

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

chompdown · 28-08-2015 10:22am

As August comes to a close, I have decided to place Bet 2. It's another pretty interesting one involving a top scorer shout for League 2. Izale McLeod has just signed for Notts County. He is a proven goalscorer and scored 21 goals in 41 games for Crawley who got relegated from League 1 last season. He made his debut against Villa in the League Cup on Tuesday and won a penalty (converted by Jon Stead). He's available at 40/1 with Coral and is as low as 16/1 with Bet 365.

I lumped in Huddersfield to be relegated from the Championship @ 3/1 as they are much shorter with other bookies to go down.

Finally, I threw in France to qualify for the QF of the Rugby world cup @ 1.08 to bring the potential winnings to almost €25k. Here's the summary:

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 41.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08

Total odds: 177.12
Stake € 136 / £100

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

EOB32 · 28-08-2015 10:42am

Enjoy following these logs Chompdown, an interesting approach I might look at doing aswel to cap the spending per month and avoid the impulse bets. Good luck with it

chompdown · 28-08-2015 12:54pm

Thanks man. It's nice to know someone is listening

I cant speak highly enough of this approach if you want to curb your betting.

I login once or twice a month to put the accumulator on, and that's it. Then there's no temptation to stick a tenner on a Bulgarian 1st division game and watch it lose, and follow up with €20 on the Egyptian FA Cup.

You put these bets on and watch them lose slowly, or as it turned out a few years ago, win big!

I never get the temptation to chase when these lose, and that is key for me.

Its also nice to follow the team newsbof the teams in the accys.

All in all · 28-08-2015 1:46pm

chompdown wrote: »

Thanks man. It's nice to know someone is listening

I cant speak highly enough of this approach if you want to curb your betting.

I login once or twice a month to put the accumulator on, and that's it. Then there's no temptation to stick a tenner on a Bulgarian 1st division game and watch it lose, and follow up with €20 on the Egyptian FA Cup.

You put these bets on and watch them lose slowly, or as it turned out a few years ago, win big!

I never get the temptation to chase when these lose, and that is key for me.

Its also nice to follow the team newsbof the teams in the accys.

I like your approach too. I just back golf now, have a bet most weekends on both tours and that is my weeks punting.

Did you have one of these bets come off a couple years ago?

chompdown · 28-08-2015 6:54pm

Sounds good All in All! Yeah I had a bet to win €50k. Went down to the last day of the season. Needed Nicky Maynard to score two to be top scorer, or one to be joint top scorer. As well as that I needed Palace to beat or draw with Wednesday. They did and Maynard scored one, so I won €25k !

chompdown · 01-09-2015 7:19am

Not a lot to write about this week as the results involving the bets were pretty average. A host of L2 top goalscorer candidates scored over the weekend, except my selections, so that's a bit of a worry. Still very early days though.

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 3.5
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.1
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.11
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 26.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 212.1 (no change this week!)

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 41.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0 -> 3.75
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08 -> 1.10

Total odds: 177.12 -> 169.13

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

chompdown · 17-09-2015 1:47pm

The international break meant that it's been pretty quiet since my last update, but we have had one round of games, again with very mixed results. The standout was Izale McLeod banging in two for Nott's County on his league debut. John Akinde hasn't scored since his brace earlier in the season, but Barnet should have an easier run of fixtures ahead of them now. They had a very tough start.

It was nice to see Bourenmouth lose 3-0 to Norwich, but Huddersfield and Colchester picked up wins on Tuesday nght.

Here are the latest odds:

Bet 1
Total odds: 296.5 -> 398.1

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 26.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0 -> 4.0
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08 -> 1.08

Total odds: 177.12 -> 112.32

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

chompdown · 02-10-2015 4:01pm

So it has been about 2 weeks since my last update. As predicted, I thought Barnet would have more joy with the fixtures they had coming up... They won 2 out of 3, scored 7 goals but not one of them from Akinde, which is bizarre. I think he set up most of them!

Anyway, Colchester have been getting some great results and are now only 1 point off the playoffs, so that bet can be moved quietly into the recycle bin...

The other bet has been doing alright. Huddersfield have picked up points, but so have the teams around them and they are 5th favourites to go down.

Notts County have been scoring plenty of goals in all competitions and look to be a very exciting team. McLeod has settled in well, but there was heartbreak twice for me. The first was that he won a penalty, but didn't take it, then in their last game he took a penalty, missed it and got subbed straight away! He did score a tap in and his odds have dropped significantly, but that peno miss could be very important, as he will most probably be taken off them now.

I have my eye on a few selections for the September accy but I haven't gone for it yet. Will post here as soon as I do.

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 41.0 -> 17.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0 -> 4.33
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08 -> 1.01

Total odds: 177.12 -> 74.35

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

chompdown · 18-10-2015 8:45pm

Just a very quick update to inform about my new accumulator. I'm really happy that I've only put these two on since late July and it's now October. So I've increased the late a bit for October and split my bet in two. Here are the selections with odds.

Bet 3

1. Everton top 10 finish @ 1.44
2. Bristol City relegation @ 8.0
3. Bury League 1 promotion @ 6.0
4. Benfica to qualify from CL group @ 1.12
5. Plymouth promotion @ 1.91

Bet 3: Selections 1-4 Stake £172.50 @ 77.41 to win £13,353
Bet 4: Selections 1-5 Stake £50.00 @ 147.86 to win £7,393

For arguments sake I'll just call it £222.50 @ 101.0

Tasty!!

chompdown · 31-10-2015 12:29pm

Pretty quiet thread for me so far this year, and that's because the bets have been performing pretty averagely so far. They are all still in with a shout, but not looking likely at all. The reason for the update this morning is to add in November accumulator, so here it is:

Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0

Stake: €90 @ 272.79
Potential winnings €24,550

Vardy is top by 4, Doncaster in the relegation zone and Ezxeter 3 points off the top 7 despite a sh1tload of injuries.

Not a bad little treble there at all!

Looking forward to following all my selections and their rivals on Soccer Saturday today.

ronanc1000 · 01-11-2015 1:28am

chompdown wrote: »

Pretty quiet thread for me so far this year, and that's because the bets have been performing pretty averagely so far. They are all still in with a shout, but not looking likely at all. The reason for the update this morning is to add in November accumulator, so here it is:

Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0

Stake: €90 @ 272.79
Potential winnings €24,550

Vardy is top by 4, Doncaster in the relegation zone and Ezxeter 3 points off the top 7 despite a sh1tload of injuries.

Not a bad little treble there at all!

Looking forward to following all my selections and their rivals on Soccer Saturday today.

Sorry to hijack your log chompdown, been reading with interested and am going to follow your treble above, what bookies was it with may I ask? Odds have been slashed with 365 to 127/1 now.

chompdown · 01-11-2015 9:59am

Not a hijack at all! The more the merrier. I almost always use Coral as they can be very generous with their long term odds.

I see they have not yet re-opened the betting for Prem top scorer so you might need to wait to get the best price.

Doncaster won and Exeter lost so they will drift a bit but Vardy scored and reckon he will shorten to about 6.0 or 7.0 with Coral.

chompdown · 01-11-2015 7:24pm

Time for an update! With there being a good few accumulators in play now, I'm just gonna concentrate on the one with the best chance of return.

This weekend was great for the large accumulator I put on last month. It had actually started quite badly with a lot of results going the wrong way, but this weekend went really well so there's a chance the odds have shortened.

Everton had a great 6-2 win today, Bristol City were beaten 4-1 at home to Fulham, Bury won 4-3 after losing their last two games and Plymouth also won!

Couldn't have asked for me really

Here's how the odds look now.

Everton top 10 finish @ 1.44 -> 1.33
Bristol City relegation @ 8.0 -> 7.0
Bury League 1 promotion @ 6.0 -> 9.0 (fantastic odds!)
Benfica to qualify from CL group @ 1.12 -> 1.17
Plymouth promotion @ 1.91 -> 1.67

Total odds: 147.9 -> 163.71

So the odds have drifted but that is mainly down to the standout price offered by Corals for Bury to get promoted.

Very important game on Tuesday for Benfica at home to Galatasaray. A win would pretty much secure qualification. Bristol City will be at home to Wolves on the same night.

markc91 · 04-11-2015 1:41am

chompdown wrote: »

Not a hijack at all! The more the merrier. I almost always use Coral as they can be very generous with their long term odds.

I see they have not yet re-opened the betting for Prem top scorer so you might need to wait to get the best price.

Doncaster won and Exeter lost so they will drift a bit but Vardy scored and reckon he will shorten to about 6.0 or 7.0 with Coral.

Coral came back with 7/2 on Vardy so I think i missed the boat with this one whereas I'm on the other ones you've posted hopefully this one won't be the only winner :pac:

chompdown · 04-11-2015 7:47pm

Jaysus, I didn't realise they had cut his odds so much after only one goal. It just goes to show there are a lot of bargains out there, I'm just trying to find a combination of three or four together.

Bet of luck with the bets. What exactly did you go for?

Benfica won last night which was great, but Bristol City won 1-0 at home to Wolves. Charlton, Bolton and Rotherham looking like a miserable threesome at the bottom of the Championship! Early days though...

markc91 · 04-11-2015 8:17pm

Ive done the other bets you have posted and last night done one of my own that all selections were priced higher on bookies than on the exchange, the following were Swansea Top 10 finish, Charlton Championship Relegation, Oldham League One Relegation and Barry Corr League Two Top Scorer @128/1

chompdown · 22-11-2015 11:27pm

Some great results over the weekend for my two best bets so far.

It started off pretty badly with Bristol City getting a point at home to leaders Hull, but all the results after that went my way.

The most recent bet I placed (Vardy, Docaster, Exeter) had a pretty sh1te start but looks to be heading in the right direction now.

Here are the odds for both bets.

Bet 1
Everton top 10 finish @ 1.44 -> 1.29
Bristol City relegation @ 8.0 -> 10.0
Bury League 1 promotion @ 6.0 -> 9.0 (fantastic odds!)
Benfica to qualify from CL group @ 1.12 -> 1.02
Plymouth promotion @ 1.91 -> 1.45

Total odds: 147.9 -> 171.71

Bet 2
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.5
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 5.0
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 10.0 (fantastic odds!)

Total odds: 272.8 -> 175.0

League 1 and League 2 on Tuesday night

chompdown · 26-11-2015 8:37pm

Ok, just a very quick update after a nice away win for Exeter putting them close to the top 7. That was good. The 3-0 win for Doncaster was bad, but not all bad as some of the teams in and around them also won. Anyway... odds:

Bet 2
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.75
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 6.0
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 7.0

Total odds: 272.8 -> 157.5

Bury were beaten at home last night so this bet is the clear front-running at this point

chompdown · 03-12-2015 8:24pm

With the weekend not too far away I thought I would give another little update here to get me in the mood!

Another goal for Vardy last weekend was fantastic to see, although Doncaster twice came from behind to draw with league leaders Coventry (away). To avoid relegation teams need to get on average a point per game, and Doncaster are unfortunately on course with 24 points from 20 games. A christmas slump would be nice.

Exeter drew with a last-kick-of-the-game goal away to Bristol Rovers and are still in a decent position just outside the top 7.

It's still a longshot but here are the odds anyway

Bet 2
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.0
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 7.0
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 8.0

Total odds: 272.8 -> 168.0

chompdown · 09-12-2015 10:56am

Yesterday was the day for my December accumulator to be ready in time for the Christmas bonanza of football. I had seen my first choice selection a few days ago and added €155 to my account. Everything was good to go, until when I was placing the bet, and it was referred to a traded. They offered my about half the stake and I took it, the other half was also split in two, and I reached my limit with my main selection with about €40 left.

Anyway, to get to the point, here are my three accumulators which all all to win about €10k

Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80
£50 @ 160.46 to win £8,023

Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
£26 @ 272.0 = £7,072

West Ham - Top 10 Finish @ 2.50
Brighton - Championship Winner @ 6.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom SPL @ 1.80
£39 @ 216 = £8,242

markc91 · 09-12-2015 12:12pm

chompdown wrote: »

Yesterday was the day for my December accumulator to be ready in time for the Christmas bonanza of football. I had seen my first choice selection a few days ago and added €155 to my account. Everything was good to go, until when I was placing the bet, and it was referred to a traded. They offered my about half the stake and I took it, the other half was also split in two, and I reached my limit with my main selection with about €40 left.

Anyway, to get to the point, here are my three accumulators which all all to win about €10k

Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80
£50 @ 160.46 to win £8,023

Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
£26 @ 272.0 = £7,072

West Ham - Top 10 Finish @ 2.50
Brighton - Championship Winner @ 6.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom SPL @ 1.80
£39 @ 216 = £8,242

Am I missing something the first bet is only 47/1

chompdown · 09-12-2015 6:34pm

Sorry it includes Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00

Bookie wouldnt offer me any more stakes on him.

Cannot believe he is that price.

kerosene · 10-12-2015 10:04pm

I dont see Ajose in the betting at all on pp. Is he just back from injury?

chompdown · 11-12-2015 12:18am

Hey man, yeah I see that Paddy Power don't have him listed.

Here's the link to the market on Oddschecker

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/top-goalscorer

You can see Coral's odds are the most generous by far so if you want to throw a few quid on, you might want to sign up with them.

You can see the list of top scorers here. Ajose is fifth and hasn't been injured. He has scored a lot lately so PP have just not noticed him yet I suppose. Swindon have new manager and a few players coming back from injury.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-one/top-scorers

chompdown · 21-12-2015 1:56pm

Ok, so it looks like most of my accummualtors are total long shots now. It's been a poor season I must say, but not to worry, maybe the December ones will prove to be better selections.

Off to a good start with 33/1 shot Nicky Ajose closing the gap on Adam Armstrong from 5 to 4 goals. Not all the bookies have reopened the top scorer market but it's looking like he is gonna be down to a more realistic 16/1 shot. Shame Coral wouldn't let me get more on at 33s.

Pkymouth got a nice last minute winner, but Exeter lost to a last minute goal, so that's swings and roundabouts. Burnley thrashed Charlton 4-0 but Dundee Utd picked up a point to close the gap to 7 points. All in all, a decent start for that Nicky Ajose bet. Here are the odds:

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.73
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 2.1 :eek:
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.67

Total odds 160.46 -> 103.14
To win £8,023

Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 11.0

Total odds: 272.0 -> 187
To win £7,072

The return of the season long €20k challenge

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