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The return of the season long €20k challenge

13

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  • fingers crossed for you chompdown. Ajose is doing the business for you.




  • fingers crossed for you chompdown. Ajose is doing the business for you.




  • A long time without an update here as I've been travelling with work. I have been keeping up to date with all things related to the bet, and it's been a very mixed bag. As the lads above said, Ajose is now clear at the top of the L1 goalscorers chart by one goal. Armstrong hasn't scored in 6 and was (as hoped) called up to the England U19 squad. He will miss two of the last 9 games for Coventry. Ajose will play 10 games (barring injury). That puts him in a very strong position!

    All good so? Nope! Plymouth have dropped from 1st place to 4th place after a really poor second half to the season. The weekend before last they blew a 1-0 lead to Accrington in the last few minutes to lose 2-1 and lost 1-0 again last weekend. That was heavily odds on and is now a 2/1 shot as Bristol Rovers are in excellent form :(

    Dundee United are also closing the gap all the time on Kilmarnock (lost to a last minute goal, while Dundee United equalised with a last minute goal)

    I would be seriously bitter if the Ajose bet comes in and Plymouth or Dundee United let me down!

    Exeter are also still in good form but there's so many teams between them and 7th place that it's gonna require an epic run to get to 7.

    Odds update as follows:

    Ajose Part 1
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.63
    Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.0

    Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 3.0
    Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.2

    Total odds 160.46 -> 9.47
    Potential winnings €10k

    Ajose Part 2
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.63
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 46.0

    Total odds: 272.0 -> 120.98
    To win €9k




  • Don't think Dundee Utd are good enough to go on a meaningful run, hopefully Ajose stays clear. Could be looking at Plymouth in the playoffs though, which wouldn't be good for the heart. Would you consider hedging if that happened or just let it play out?




  • Hey man, no I wouldn't bother hedging. I never have before... it just involves too much money to make it a meaningful lay.

    It's strange that the Plymouth selection is now the outsider, although the best odds are from Coral and they are extremely generous compared to other bookies (most around 2.25). I wonder why they offer standout odds on some selections (all the ones I choose normally).


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  • Great day today! Swindon were walloped 4-1 at home to Wigan, but that man Nicky Ajose scored the only goal! Took his chance very well.

    Shortly before that he was denied by a beautiful save from 41 year old Jussi Jaaskelainen, from a free kick that was sailing into the top corner.

    Thanks-be-to-god that Plymouth finally won a game! The teams around them all won, except for Oxford so it was a vital win away to Morecombe. More good news was that they re-signed a centre midfielder from Crystal Palace (Boateng) that was on loan with them earlier in the season and was apparently a huge player for them (68% win ratio with him, and only 38% without him).

    Exeter drew at home again, so their chances of getting into the playoffs are gone, and any glimmer of hope for Southend died with their 4-1 defeat to Rochdale :(




  • I'm back from all my work travels and now ready for the end of season run in. There's one bet looking like it has a serious chance of coming in, and despite my negativity in the above post there's two others still in with slim chances - both Exeter and Southend won their second Easter games.

    With it being a Thursday night and no football to watch on tele an odds update is a good shout.

    One thing to mention is that Armstrong scored 2 goals for England U19s in their 3 game qualifying tournament last week. Hopefully he doesn't bring that form back with him when he joins up with his Coventry teammates who are in awful form themselves...

    Ajose Part 1
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.25
    Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.0

    Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 2.0
    Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.2

    Total odds 160.46 -> 5.4 :eek:
    To win 10k


    Ajose Part 2
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 2.25
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 26.0

    Total odds: 272.0 -> 58.5
    To win 9k

    Feb
    Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0 -> 17
    Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5 -> 1.11
    Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44 -> 1.91
    Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61 -> 1.5
    Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17 -> 1.00
    Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6 -> 2.2

    Total odds: 131.83 -> 118.93

    To win 19k




  • Bit of a mad day yesterday. Armstrong was rested and only played 30 mins with no goal again. Ajose scored again and hit the bar, and is now three clear! A late and strong finisher scored two yesterday, Will Grigg of Wigan who are playing very well now. He is also 3 behind. Can either of Grigg or Armstrong score 3 or more in their last 6 games? Possible, but I'm confident that even if they do Ajose will get at least a couple himself. Strong favourite now.

    The big game for me yesterday was Exexter v Plymouth (Devon derby). Both of these selections needed wins to stay in contention for the playoffs (Exeter) and the auto promotion spots (Plymouth). With Plymouth having a more realistic chance of achieving their goal, I was shouting for them as it was gonna be difficult for Exeter to finish top 7 even with a win. Plymouth dominated the game, went 1-0 up, but lost to two goals from nowhere.

    Plymouth are now back out of the autos, but Exeter are now only 2 points off 7th place! The emotions were all over the place with that game. I think a draw probably would have been the worst result anyway.

    Bad news from Scotland where Dundee Utd picked up more points on Kilmarnock. They won 1-0 away to a top 6 side and played with 10 men for 30 minutes :( A poster above mentioned that they're not good enough to go on a run of results, but they are already on a run which is good enough to keep them up. They are now 5 points behind with a game in hand (Tuesday). They need to lose that!

    I'm looking forward to totting up the odds tomorrow when they are all updated, especially now that Exeter are not total long shots (Even the Vardy, Doncaster, Exeter treble is still semi-on).




  • Southend bet defo done and dusted now, but Vardy - Doncater - Exeter treble is back in play.

    Ajose Part 1

    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 1.53
    Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.0

    Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 2.38
    Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.2

    Total odds 160.46 -> 4.37 :eek:
    To win 10k


    Ajose Part 2
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 1.53
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 15.0

    Total odds: 272.0 -> 22.95 :eek:
    To win 9k


    November
    Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 - 8.0
    Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 1.17

    Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 15

    Total odds: 272.8 -> 140.4
    To win 24k




  • Nicky Ajose misses out with an injury this evening while youth team scholars, Jordan Young and Jake Evans are among the substitutes.

    Please not serious!


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  • Yeah I spotted that too. Really hope he is not out for long. Keeping a closer eye on Dundee United now instead!




  • Apparently Ajose was feeling tightness in his hamstring yesterday in training so probably best that he was not risked today. Swindon have a lot of injuries so he may have been running around chasing lost causes anyway. Hopefully back on Saturday.

    Very nice defeat for Dundee Utd. 5 points behind Kilmarnock with 6 games to go. Hopefully when the league splits the fixtures have Kilmarnock at home to Dundee Utd.

    A win for Carlise makes it harder for Exeter to get that 7th place finish. Carlisle have the easiest run in of the 5 teams that can can realistically get that last playoff spot.




  • Chompdown your 3rd december acca isnt looking too bad now, Still needs an awful lot of luck but might be worth the odd update...

    West Ham - Top 10 Finish @ 2.50 > 1.01
    Brighton - Championship Winner @ 6.00 > 9.00
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 > 11.00
    Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom SPL @ 1.80 > 1.20
    @216.0 > 120.0




  • Indeed! Still a long shot but would be amazing if that one could come in.

    After I included Brighton they went on a horrendous run, but yeah they are coming back in now and still in with a shout.




  • Just a very quick post to put up my April bet... I'm having some problems with Skrill and only managed to get €50 on. Still another €100 to work with. Anyway here it is:

    Carlisle - Top 7 Finish @ 7.0
    Bradford - Promotion @ 4.5
    Barcelona - UEFA Champions League Winner @ 2.5
    Rickie Fowler - Masters Top 20 Finish @ 1.57

    Total odds: 123.6
    Potential winnings: 6k

    Bookie is Betfair Sports this time!

    Will update when I get the rest on (probably a slight variant of this).

    Edit to add that Rickie Fowler shot a first round +8 so those skrill problems have just saved me €100!




  • OK, so I got lucky with the above losing bet only being €50.

    So here's my last bet of the season.

    Dallas Stars - Western Conference Winner @ 6.00
    Burnley - Championship Promotion @ 1.33
    Carlisle United - League Two Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
    Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.73
    Doncaster Rovers- League One Relegation @ 1.10

    Total odds: 121.5
    Potential winnings €14.5k




  • Lots went on this weekend. A mix of good and bad. Exeter have now reached the top of the form charts in League 2 and incredibly are level on points with Wimbledon and Wycome for that last playoff spot. They always say that there's always one team that comed from nowhere to get into the playoffs. Hopefully Exeter can be that team in L2.

    The big result I was looking for went the wrong way. Plymouth again seemed to be unlucky to lose, this time to Wimbledon with another late goal. They are now 3 behind the automatics, with Oxford (win), Accrington (win) and Bristol R (draw against top) all picking up good results :(

    More bad news came with Ajose remaining injured and Grigg scoring to close the gap to two with 5 to play. He also had a peno saved so I suppose I should be happy with that result. Ajose should be back next weekend.

    Dundee Utd now should be almost confirmed to be relegated after a 3-0 Killy win, while they lost at home, so that actually leaves me with three doubles. Yes, three after that legend Vardy banged in two today!


    November
    Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.3 (one behind Kane)
    Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 1.07

    Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 7.0

    Stake: €90 @ 272.79 -> 24.71
    To win €24,550


    Ajose Part 1
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 1.8
    Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> WIN
    Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 3.8
    Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.03
    £50 @ 160.46 -> 7.0
    To win £8,023


    Ajose Part 2
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 1.8
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 7.0

    £26 @ 272.0 -> 12.6
    To win £7,072


    Ideal scenario... Ajose stays as L1 top scorer, Exeter squeeze into playoffs, but are beaten to promotion by Plymouth, and Vardy overtakes Kane. 40k+

    Worst case scenario, Ajose is overtaken by Grigg and Exeter fail to keep their form up and finish outside the playoffs, while Plymouth continue their poor form and get knocked out in the playoffs. Big fat zero!




  • Going well. Exciting few weeks ahead.




  • Cheers, yeah it should be interesting. I just realised that if Exeter and Ajose don't come in then all are losers... So it's odds on that I come away with nothing but shattered dreams :)




  • Exeter are making you sweat alright.


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  • Exeter are giving a good run for money. Backed them at 40/1 when you advised and I can see 6s biggest price now




  • Interesting few weeks ahead. Nothing running myself so "adopting" your bets alongside Leicester to be champs and United to make top four




  • markc91 wrote: »
    Chompdown your 3rd december acca isnt looking too bad now, Still needs an awful lot of luck but might be worth the odd update...

    West Ham - Top 10 Finish @ 2.50 > 1.01
    Brighton - Championship Winner @ 6.00 > 9.00
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 > 11.00
    Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom SPL @ 1.80 > 1.20
    @216.0 > 120.0

    One week on and this is looking a lot better too, especially after Brighton's last minute winner tonight. Good shout! Basically a double now too.




  • Ok, even with the danger of milking it with these updates, I'm gonna put up the four "doubles" that are in with a chance. So that means cleaning them up and removing any selections below odds of 1.10.

    In order of liklihood to happen:

    Bet 1

    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 1.73
    Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 3.8
    Odds: 6.57
    To win €10,000


    Bet 2
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 1.73
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 7.5
    Odds: 12.98
    To win €8,800


    Bet 3
    Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 3.3
    Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.5
    Odds: 24.75
    To win €24,500


    Bet 4
    Brighton - Championship Winner @ 9.0
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 7.5
    Odds: 67.5
    To win €10,300




  • Cheers Collie, it's great to have someone cheering along with me! Will be particularly important if it comes down to the wire. Shame you don't have any money down on them. Maybe next year?! I'll do a summary report at the end of the year. Pretty sure level stakes on the individual selections would give a healthy return.

    Shanee, great to hear you got on Exeter. That 40/1 was indeed a fantastic price. I still think Carlisle and Wimbledon have the easiest run ins, but literally anything can happen in League 2. Exeter were hammered 4-1 by Oxford (at home I think) and since then are 8 games unbeaten. A big test for Exeter against league leaders Northampton this weekend! That Ollie Watkins is going to achive big things I think...




  • Im on bets 1,2 and 4 since you posted albeit lower stakes but stand to win a few k aswell should any come in so im cheering along every week and will buy an exeter jersey should they make top 7 :D




  • Fantastic! :D

    Hope it comes in for you. Would be amazing to have an Exeter shirt :)




  • Another exciting weekend of ups and downs. I had a game myself at 4pm so spent the pre match checking the scores sporadically, and then was able to go through my twitter feed to catch up on the games one by one. That should be the last time I'll be preoccupied on a Saturday afternoon...

    The highlight had to be Plymouth scoring two late goals to come from behind to win away to Portsmouth. A huuuuge win, meaning they still have a chance at automatic promotion. Important in terms of points and morale. Could be a big moment for that bet.

    That said, the other part of it is under serious threat as Will Grigg scored again. He is in amazing form now, but Wigan have a tough set of fixtures remaining, and he is still one behind Ajose who is back from injury (but didnt score).

    The other majorly important selection is Exeter. They were home to the best team in the league (Northampton) and drew 0-0. Exeter hit the inside of the post and the crossbar, but apparantly it was a fair result. Could be considered good for the bet, but Wimbledon scored late to beat Crawley and go 2 points clear with a game in hand. It's theirs to throw away now.

    Drama in the Championship too as 'boro scored two injury time winners in the space of one week to put them in a very strong position. I watched them on Sat morning against Bolton and they were awful, but playing badly and winning is normally how teams win leagues :( Brighton won 5-0 on Friday, but probably too far behind to come back and win the league.

    Lastly, Vardy got off to a cracking start today, bagging a goal to go joint top in the big 25k double (with Exeter) but then got sent off for diving! Will miss the Swansea game now and doubtful he will come out on top (Aguero is back in the mox now after a hat trick)

    So it was drama all round, but probably more negatives than positives this week, but the odds update will reveal all tomorrow!

    Lots of games on Tuesday! :)




  • Bet 1
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 1.73 -> 2.1
    Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 3.8 -> 2.75
    Odds: 6.57 -> 5.78

    To win €10,000


    Bet 2
    Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 1.73 -> 2.1
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 7.5 -> 13.0
    Odds: 12.98 -> 27.3

    To win €8,800


    Bet 3
    Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 3.3 -> 5.0
    Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.5 -> 13.0
    Odds: 24.75 -> 65

    To win €24,500


    Bet 4
    Brighton - Championship Winner @ 9.0 -> 11
    Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 7.5 -> 13.0
    Odds: 67.5 -> 143

    To win €10,300


    A lot more red there than I was expecting!

    The only one to shorten was the one most likely to win, so I'm happy with that. If Grigg scores less than 2 goals in his last three games, that bet will go all the way to the playoffs at least :)

    Can't wait for tomorrow night. Getting great value for money here.


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  • chompdown wrote: »
    [

    If Grigg scores less than 2 goals in his last three games, that bet will go all the way to the playoffs at least :)

    Can't wait for tomorrow night. Getting great value for money here.

    Would grigg not win it on a tie breaker if he scores one without reply? Is assist the tie breaker or minutes?


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