The return of the season long €20k challenge

chompdown · 02-08-2015 2:04pm #1

Here we go again. I've been doing these for a few years now. One bet per month with season long selections. I've won one €25k and been close a couple of other times. Failed miserabley with some too

I plan to stake about €100 to €200 per month max, and tend to go for trebles or fourfolds with total odds between 100/1 and 300/1

Generally speaking, I like to include one long shot with two or three at around evens to 4/1. Experience tells me that these have been the most successful.

The aim is to win approximately €20k but also to stop me betting on day to day stuff. I have my one bet per month and that keeps me happy. This has been great tonic to keep me away from dark days chasing losses. So here we go with the first bet which I will mark down for July

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.40
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0

Total odds: 296.5
Stake €96 / £67.5

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

Looking forward to next week already!

All in all · 05-08-2015 12:33pm

Good luck with this. Followed your last thread with interest.
I like your thinking on it.

kerosene · 08-08-2015 8:22am

Best of luck chompdown, I do a similar bet in gaa and soccer as well, I hope you have a good year.

chompdown · 11-08-2015 1:32pm

A positive start is a always a good start and as I update the odds, I see they have shortened.

These bets almost always shorten after the first weekend, so if I could figure out a way to capitalise on that I would make slow but steady profits. Now it's an all or nothing approach.

Anyway, nice to see Bournemouth start with a home defeat against a fellow relegation candidate (Villa sans Benteke!)

Colchester drew at home to Blackpool but it's hard to know what kind of result that is.

Barnet were beaten at home against a good Leyton Orient side but apparently were on top in the first half with Akinde looking dangerous.

Rangers already are joint top, with main rivals Hibs losing.

Here are the latest odds!

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 2.3
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.1
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.33
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 34.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 218.4

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

chompdown · 19-08-2015 11:04pm

Another great few days for my first bet of the season. Very happy with the selections so far, as in previous years I've waited a few games before putting the money down.

Bournemouth looked decent at Anfield but lost. Colchester picked up 1 point from two games, Rangers won again, but most importantly John Akinde scored 2 on Tuesday night.

Barnet have started with three very difficult fixtures so for Akinde to have 2 goals from that start, it's impressive. Irish lad Barry Corr is banging them in for Cambridge but let's see if that lasts. Here are the updated odds:

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 2.3
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.2
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.17
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 21.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 124.2

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

chompdown · 24-08-2015 4:50pm

A bit of a mixed bag this weekend with Bournemouth winning away to West Ham. I was very impressed with the Hammers when they played Arsenal, but they've lost both league games since then. That win will be a boost for Bournemouth and I was hoping the monkey on the back of not winning would have stayed around longer.

Barnet lost again with no goals for Akinde. He has 2 in 4 games, but they have played 3 of the top 4 teams at the moment. I feel Barnet will improve and the Akinde goals will continue at a rate of one in two. That will be enough to make him top scorer.

Colchester were hammered 4-0 and Ranger won 1-0 against their biggest rivals Hibs. Nothing spectacular this week, but the odds have drifted significantly because of that Bournemouth win. An over reaction from the bookies I feel.

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 3.5
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.1
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.11
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 26.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 212.1

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

chompdown · 28-08-2015 10:22am

As August comes to a close, I have decided to place Bet 2. It's another pretty interesting one involving a top scorer shout for League 2. Izale McLeod has just signed for Notts County. He is a proven goalscorer and scored 21 goals in 41 games for Crawley who got relegated from League 1 last season. He made his debut against Villa in the League Cup on Tuesday and won a penalty (converted by Jon Stead). He's available at 40/1 with Coral and is as low as 16/1 with Bet 365.

I lumped in Huddersfield to be relegated from the Championship @ 3/1 as they are much shorter with other bookies to go down.

Finally, I threw in France to qualify for the QF of the Rugby world cup @ 1.08 to bring the potential winnings to almost €25k. Here's the summary:

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 41.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08

Total odds: 177.12
Stake € 136 / £100

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

EOB32 · 28-08-2015 10:42am

Enjoy following these logs Chompdown, an interesting approach I might look at doing aswel to cap the spending per month and avoid the impulse bets. Good luck with it

chompdown · 28-08-2015 12:54pm

Thanks man. It's nice to know someone is listening

I cant speak highly enough of this approach if you want to curb your betting.

I login once or twice a month to put the accumulator on, and that's it. Then there's no temptation to stick a tenner on a Bulgarian 1st division game and watch it lose, and follow up with €20 on the Egyptian FA Cup.

You put these bets on and watch them lose slowly, or as it turned out a few years ago, win big!

I never get the temptation to chase when these lose, and that is key for me.

Its also nice to follow the team newsbof the teams in the accys.

All in all · 28-08-2015 1:46pm

chompdown wrote: »

Thanks man. It's nice to know someone is listening

I cant speak highly enough of this approach if you want to curb your betting.

I login once or twice a month to put the accumulator on, and that's it. Then there's no temptation to stick a tenner on a Bulgarian 1st division game and watch it lose, and follow up with €20 on the Egyptian FA Cup.

You put these bets on and watch them lose slowly, or as it turned out a few years ago, win big!

I never get the temptation to chase when these lose, and that is key for me.

Its also nice to follow the team newsbof the teams in the accys.

I like your approach too. I just back golf now, have a bet most weekends on both tours and that is my weeks punting.

Did you have one of these bets come off a couple years ago?

chompdown · 28-08-2015 6:54pm

Sounds good All in All! Yeah I had a bet to win €50k. Went down to the last day of the season. Needed Nicky Maynard to score two to be top scorer, or one to be joint top scorer. As well as that I needed Palace to beat or draw with Wednesday. They did and Maynard scored one, so I won €25k !

chompdown · 01-09-2015 7:19am

Not a lot to write about this week as the results involving the bets were pretty average. A host of L2 top goalscorer candidates scored over the weekend, except my selections, so that's a bit of a worry. Still very early days though.

Bet 1
Bournemouth to be relegated @ 2.4 -> 3.5
Colchester to be relegated @ 2.3 -> 2.1
Rangers to win the Championship @ 1.58 -> 1.11
John Akinde L2 Top Scorer @ 34.0 -> 26.0

Total odds: 296.5 -> 212.1 (no change this week!)

Potential returns: €28,472 / £20,016

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 41.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0 -> 3.75
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08 -> 1.10

Total odds: 177.12 -> 169.13

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

chompdown · 17-09-2015 1:47pm

The international break meant that it's been pretty quiet since my last update, but we have had one round of games, again with very mixed results. The standout was Izale McLeod banging in two for Nott's County on his league debut. John Akinde hasn't scored since his brace earlier in the season, but Barnet should have an easier run of fixtures ahead of them now. They had a very tough start.

It was nice to see Bourenmouth lose 3-0 to Norwich, but Huddersfield and Colchester picked up wins on Tuesday nght.

Here are the latest odds:

Bet 1
Total odds: 296.5 -> 398.1

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 26.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0 -> 4.0
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08 -> 1.08

Total odds: 177.12 -> 112.32

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

chompdown · 02-10-2015 4:01pm

So it has been about 2 weeks since my last update. As predicted, I thought Barnet would have more joy with the fixtures they had coming up... They won 2 out of 3, scored 7 goals but not one of them from Akinde, which is bizarre. I think he set up most of them!

Anyway, Colchester have been getting some great results and are now only 1 point off the playoffs, so that bet can be moved quietly into the recycle bin...

The other bet has been doing alright. Huddersfield have picked up points, but so have the teams around them and they are 5th favourites to go down.

Notts County have been scoring plenty of goals in all competitions and look to be a very exciting team. McLeod has settled in well, but there was heartbreak twice for me. The first was that he won a penalty, but didn't take it, then in their last game he took a penalty, missed it and got subbed straight away! He did score a tap in and his odds have dropped significantly, but that peno miss could be very important, as he will most probably be taken off them now.

I have my eye on a few selections for the September accy but I haven't gone for it yet. Will post here as soon as I do.

Bet 2
Izale McLeod L2 Top Scorer @ 41.0 -> 17.0
Huddersfield to be relegated @ 4.0 -> 4.33
France to reach RWC QF @ 1.08 -> 1.01

Total odds: 177.12 -> 74.35

Potential returns: €24,164 / £17,712

chompdown · 18-10-2015 8:45pm

Just a very quick update to inform about my new accumulator. I'm really happy that I've only put these two on since late July and it's now October. So I've increased the late a bit for October and split my bet in two. Here are the selections with odds.

Bet 3

1. Everton top 10 finish @ 1.44
2. Bristol City relegation @ 8.0
3. Bury League 1 promotion @ 6.0
4. Benfica to qualify from CL group @ 1.12
5. Plymouth promotion @ 1.91

Bet 3: Selections 1-4 Stake £172.50 @ 77.41 to win £13,353
Bet 4: Selections 1-5 Stake £50.00 @ 147.86 to win £7,393

For arguments sake I'll just call it £222.50 @ 101.0

Tasty!!

chompdown · 31-10-2015 12:29pm

Pretty quiet thread for me so far this year, and that's because the bets have been performing pretty averagely so far. They are all still in with a shout, but not looking likely at all. The reason for the update this morning is to add in November accumulator, so here it is:

Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0

Stake: €90 @ 272.79
Potential winnings €24,550

Vardy is top by 4, Doncaster in the relegation zone and Ezxeter 3 points off the top 7 despite a sh1tload of injuries.

Not a bad little treble there at all!

Looking forward to following all my selections and their rivals on Soccer Saturday today.

ronanc1000 · 01-11-2015 1:28am

chompdown wrote: »

Pretty quiet thread for me so far this year, and that's because the bets have been performing pretty averagely so far. They are all still in with a shout, but not looking likely at all. The reason for the update this morning is to add in November accumulator, so here it is:

Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0

Stake: €90 @ 272.79
Potential winnings €24,550

Vardy is top by 4, Doncaster in the relegation zone and Ezxeter 3 points off the top 7 despite a sh1tload of injuries.

Not a bad little treble there at all!

Looking forward to following all my selections and their rivals on Soccer Saturday today.

Sorry to hijack your log chompdown, been reading with interested and am going to follow your treble above, what bookies was it with may I ask? Odds have been slashed with 365 to 127/1 now.

chompdown · 01-11-2015 9:59am

Not a hijack at all! The more the merrier. I almost always use Coral as they can be very generous with their long term odds.

I see they have not yet re-opened the betting for Prem top scorer so you might need to wait to get the best price.

Doncaster won and Exeter lost so they will drift a bit but Vardy scored and reckon he will shorten to about 6.0 or 7.0 with Coral.

chompdown · 01-11-2015 7:24pm

Time for an update! With there being a good few accumulators in play now, I'm just gonna concentrate on the one with the best chance of return.

This weekend was great for the large accumulator I put on last month. It had actually started quite badly with a lot of results going the wrong way, but this weekend went really well so there's a chance the odds have shortened.

Everton had a great 6-2 win today, Bristol City were beaten 4-1 at home to Fulham, Bury won 4-3 after losing their last two games and Plymouth also won!

Couldn't have asked for me really

Here's how the odds look now.

Everton top 10 finish @ 1.44 -> 1.33
Bristol City relegation @ 8.0 -> 7.0
Bury League 1 promotion @ 6.0 -> 9.0 (fantastic odds!)
Benfica to qualify from CL group @ 1.12 -> 1.17
Plymouth promotion @ 1.91 -> 1.67

Total odds: 147.9 -> 163.71

So the odds have drifted but that is mainly down to the standout price offered by Corals for Bury to get promoted.

Very important game on Tuesday for Benfica at home to Galatasaray. A win would pretty much secure qualification. Bristol City will be at home to Wolves on the same night.

markc91 · 04-11-2015 1:41am

chompdown wrote: »

Not a hijack at all! The more the merrier. I almost always use Coral as they can be very generous with their long term odds.

I see they have not yet re-opened the betting for Prem top scorer so you might need to wait to get the best price.

Doncaster won and Exeter lost so they will drift a bit but Vardy scored and reckon he will shorten to about 6.0 or 7.0 with Coral.

Coral came back with 7/2 on Vardy so I think i missed the boat with this one whereas I'm on the other ones you've posted hopefully this one won't be the only winner :pac:

chompdown · 04-11-2015 7:47pm

Jaysus, I didn't realise they had cut his odds so much after only one goal. It just goes to show there are a lot of bargains out there, I'm just trying to find a combination of three or four together.

Bet of luck with the bets. What exactly did you go for?

Benfica won last night which was great, but Bristol City won 1-0 at home to Wolves. Charlton, Bolton and Rotherham looking like a miserable threesome at the bottom of the Championship! Early days though...

markc91 · 04-11-2015 8:17pm

Ive done the other bets you have posted and last night done one of my own that all selections were priced higher on bookies than on the exchange, the following were Swansea Top 10 finish, Charlton Championship Relegation, Oldham League One Relegation and Barry Corr League Two Top Scorer @128/1

chompdown · 22-11-2015 11:27pm

Some great results over the weekend for my two best bets so far.

It started off pretty badly with Bristol City getting a point at home to leaders Hull, but all the results after that went my way.

The most recent bet I placed (Vardy, Docaster, Exeter) had a pretty sh1te start but looks to be heading in the right direction now.

Here are the odds for both bets.

Bet 1
Everton top 10 finish @ 1.44 -> 1.29
Bristol City relegation @ 8.0 -> 10.0
Bury League 1 promotion @ 6.0 -> 9.0 (fantastic odds!)
Benfica to qualify from CL group @ 1.12 -> 1.02
Plymouth promotion @ 1.91 -> 1.45

Total odds: 147.9 -> 171.71

Bet 2
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.5
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 5.0
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 10.0 (fantastic odds!)

Total odds: 272.8 -> 175.0

League 1 and League 2 on Tuesday night

chompdown · 26-11-2015 8:37pm

Ok, just a very quick update after a nice away win for Exeter putting them close to the top 7. That was good. The 3-0 win for Doncaster was bad, but not all bad as some of the teams in and around them also won. Anyway... odds:

Bet 2
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.75
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 6.0
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 7.0

Total odds: 272.8 -> 157.5

Bury were beaten at home last night so this bet is the clear front-running at this point

chompdown · 03-12-2015 8:24pm

With the weekend not too far away I thought I would give another little update here to get me in the mood!

Another goal for Vardy last weekend was fantastic to see, although Doncaster twice came from behind to draw with league leaders Coventry (away). To avoid relegation teams need to get on average a point per game, and Doncaster are unfortunately on course with 24 points from 20 games. A christmas slump would be nice.

Exeter drew with a last-kick-of-the-game goal away to Bristol Rovers and are still in a decent position just outside the top 7.

It's still a longshot but here are the odds anyway

Bet 2
Vardy Top Prem Scorer @ 9.0 -> 3.0
Doncaster League 1 relegation @ 4.33 -> 7.0
Exeter League 2 Top 7 finish @ 7.0 -> 8.0

Total odds: 272.8 -> 168.0

chompdown · 09-12-2015 10:56am

Yesterday was the day for my December accumulator to be ready in time for the Christmas bonanza of football. I had seen my first choice selection a few days ago and added €155 to my account. Everything was good to go, until when I was placing the bet, and it was referred to a traded. They offered my about half the stake and I took it, the other half was also split in two, and I reached my limit with my main selection with about €40 left.

Anyway, to get to the point, here are my three accumulators which all all to win about €10k

Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80
£50 @ 160.46 to win £8,023

Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
£26 @ 272.0 = £7,072

West Ham - Top 10 Finish @ 2.50
Brighton - Championship Winner @ 6.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom SPL @ 1.80
£39 @ 216 = £8,242

markc91 · 09-12-2015 12:12pm

chompdown wrote: »

Yesterday was the day for my December accumulator to be ready in time for the Christmas bonanza of football. I had seen my first choice selection a few days ago and added €155 to my account. Everything was good to go, until when I was placing the bet, and it was referred to a traded. They offered my about half the stake and I took it, the other half was also split in two, and I reached my limit with my main selection with about €40 left.

Anyway, to get to the point, here are my three accumulators which all all to win about €10k

Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80
£50 @ 160.46 to win £8,023

Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
£26 @ 272.0 = £7,072

West Ham - Top 10 Finish @ 2.50
Brighton - Championship Winner @ 6.00
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom SPL @ 1.80
£39 @ 216 = £8,242

Am I missing something the first bet is only 47/1

chompdown · 09-12-2015 6:34pm

Sorry it includes Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00

Bookie wouldnt offer me any more stakes on him.

Cannot believe he is that price.

kerosene · 10-12-2015 10:04pm

I dont see Ajose in the betting at all on pp. Is he just back from injury?

chompdown · 11-12-2015 12:18am

Hey man, yeah I see that Paddy Power don't have him listed.

Here's the link to the market on Oddschecker

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/top-goalscorer

You can see Coral's odds are the most generous by far so if you want to throw a few quid on, you might want to sign up with them.

You can see the list of top scorers here. Ajose is fifth and hasn't been injured. He has scored a lot lately so PP have just not noticed him yet I suppose. Swindon have new manager and a few players coming back from injury.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-one/top-scorers

chompdown · 21-12-2015 1:56pm

Ok, so it looks like most of my accummualtors are total long shots now. It's been a poor season I must say, but not to worry, maybe the December ones will prove to be better selections.

Off to a good start with 33/1 shot Nicky Ajose closing the gap on Adam Armstrong from 5 to 4 goals. Not all the bookies have reopened the top scorer market but it's looking like he is gonna be down to a more realistic 16/1 shot. Shame Coral wouldn't let me get more on at 33s.

Pkymouth got a nice last minute winner, but Exeter lost to a last minute goal, so that's swings and roundabouts. Burnley thrashed Charlton 4-0 but Dundee Utd picked up a point to close the gap to 7 points. All in all, a decent start for that Nicky Ajose bet. Here are the odds:

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.73
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 2.1 :eek:
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.67

Total odds 160.46 -> 103.14
To win £8,023

Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 11.0

Total odds: 272.0 -> 187
To win £7,072

Seanachai · 21-12-2015 2:34pm

chompdown wrote: »

Ok, so it looks like most of my accummualtors are total long shots now. It's been a poor season I must say, but not to worry, maybe the December ones will prove to be better selections.

Off to a good start with 33/1 shot Nicky Ajose closing the gap on Adam Armstrong from 5 to 4 goals. Not all the bookies have reopened the top scorer market but it's looking like he is gonna be down to a more realistic 16/1 shot. Shame Coral wouldn't let me get more on at 33s.

Pkymouth got a nice last minute winner, but Exeter lost to a last minute goal, so that's swings and roundabouts. Burnley thrashed Charlton 4-0 but Dundee Utd picked up a point to close the gap to 7 points. All in all, a decent start for that Nicky Ajose bet. Here are the odds:

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.73
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 2.1 :eek:
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.67

Total odds 160.46 -> 103.14
To win £8,023

Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 11.0

Total odds: 272.0 -> 187
To win £7,072

I'm a bit green when it comes to understanding odds, I bet on ufc and five game football accumulators sometimes. Are the odds as you have them written in the American format?

chompdown · 21-12-2015 6:28pm

It's the Decimal format. If something is 33/1 you win 33 euro and your 1 euro stake back. In decimal format odds that is 34.0.

It's most convenient when you're checking odds on selections. For example 4/6 is 1.5. You always divide the first number by the second number and add 1.

chompdown · 31-12-2015 1:51pm

Nice to see the current League 1 top scorer, Adam Armstrong being dropped (or maybe just rested). Hopefully he is running out of steam! No goals for Ajose, and Swindon's new manager who has had a very good impact on the team has resigned as his depression has come back. Hopefully they can get a new manager in swiftly and Ajose can get back to scoring.

Exeter got badly beaten twice over Christmas and are looking very unlikely to make the top 7. Anyway, I will include them in the update. Bury were also beaten away from home again and have continued to struggle since I backed them. That accy is probably dead in the water now. Bury are 25/1 for promotion even though they are only 4 points off the playoffs.

Ajose Part 1 is looking good, certainly the best any bet has looked this year. Shame I was only allowed stake £50.

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.5
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.67
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.25

Total odds 160.46 -> 53.23
To win £8,023

Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 15.0

Total odds: 272.0 -> 255
To win £7,072

chompdown · 09-01-2016 4:10pm

Pretty disastrous Christmas for the selections, especially the Ajose ones, which is a shame as I was starting to believe it could be an interesting selection. Armstrong had been dropped or rested, but it turned out o be the latter and he came back with a bang with a hat-trick for Coventry. Disaster!

Ajose back out to 33/1, and very likely that Armstrong will extend his loan from Newcastle, which is a kick in the balls!

Exeter, Doncaster and Bury selections doing truly awful, so I have most definitely written off everything from 2015, but with a new year comes new opportunities! I've just placed my January accy and it's split into two again.

I suppose it's a bit like when you make your fantasy league team at the start of the season; you look at it and say, this is an amazing team and this year I will finally win it! But it never turns out like that.. I'm looking at these selections and thinking there's a lot of good value there. Anyway, here they are!

Lyon to finish top 3 @ 4.0
Sporting Gijon to be relegated @ 2.25
Dagenham & Redbridge to be relegated @ 2.5
Selby to win his quarter (Masters) @ 3.4
Gillingham to be promoted / Top 6 finish @ 2.75 / 1.29

Total odds: 210 / 98.68
Stake: 75€ on each
Potential winnings: €23,151 (both win) OR €7,401 (Gillingham only finish top 6 but dont get promoted)

chompdown · 09-01-2016 6:03pm

2 goals for Ajose today!!

chompdown · 11-01-2016 5:42pm

A great little start for the new accumulator!

Lyon beat Troyes (last place) 4-1, but most importantly, Monaco drew and St. Etienne lost. Actually the only team to win around them was Angers and they beat one of the other teams up there.

Similarly, Gijon were beaten in Spain and results around them weren't the best for them (but good for me!).

With the FA Cup, there weren't many league games, and Selby starts tomorrow with his 1st round game in the Masters. I'll also be looking for Mark Williams to do one over on O'Sullivan.

January
Lyon to finish top 3 @ 4.0 -> 3.0
Sporting Gijon to be relegated @ 2.25 -> 1.91
Dagenham & Redbridge to be relegated @ 2.5
Selby to win his quarter (Masters) @ 3.4
Gillingham to be promoted / Top 6 finish @ 2.75 / 1.29

Total odds:
210 -> 133.7
98.7 -> 62.8

A brace for Ajose also makes things a litle interesting but a couple of the bookies didn't notice that he bagged those in the league. Ssssshhhh! Now's your chance.

chompdown · 13-01-2016 9:14pm

Another couple of days on and the odds are shorter. It could have even shorter but Ronnie O'Sullivan was very lucky to beat Williams 6-5 in the first round. Williams had a very bad run of the balls in the frames I saw. Hopefully O'Sullivan doesn't bring that luck into the QF against Selby.

January
Lyon to finish top 3 @ 4.0 -> 3.0
Sporting Gijon to be relegated @ 2.25 -> 1.91
Dagenham & Redbridge to be relegated @ 2.5
Selby to win his quarter (Masters) @ 3.4 -> 2.38
Gillingham to be promoted / Top 6 finish @ 2.75 -> 2.5 / 1.29 -> 1.25

Total odds:
210 -> 85.3
98.7 -> 42.6

Green!!

kerosene · 16-01-2016 7:39pm

I see ajose among the goals today again

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman · 18-01-2016 1:46pm

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 17.0
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.5
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.67
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.25

Total odds 160.46 -> 53.23
To win £8,023

this one has to have a real chance now man, Dundee Utd rock Bottom, Plymouth top of L2, Burnley 4th and Nicky Ajose only 3 behind!!! Fair play ..

chompdown · 22-01-2016 2:35am

Cheers lads, yeah this is defo a goer now. I'm on holidays at the moment so opened the app on Saturday evening and was delighted to see all the results!

Nicky Ajose is the most in form striker in L1 now for sure and I can see him catching Armstrong. Armstrong will miss two games when away with England U18s over Easter which is a nice bonus.

I see the other parts of the bet as pretty much nailed on.

Even Exeter are not looking too much out of top 7 after signing Jayden Stockley on loan from Bournemouth, although I'm still upset that I couldn't get the full stake on for the first selections I had.

Was also very upset to see Selby get beaten by O'Sullivan. That hurt, I must say. I hope the other parts of that bet don't come off. O'Sullivan was so close to being beaten by Williams in R1 and I was very confident Selby would beat him. Anyway, back to watching the Ajose bets!

chompdown · 28-01-2016 6:43pm

I am back from my holliers so it's time for an update before the weekend fun with Jeff Stelling and friends. Hopefully Adam Armstrong's knee injury (after slipping on ice) will rule him out of this weekend's game also. The pack are catching him!

Burnley looking really good for top 6. Dundee Utd won 5-1 at the weekend so maybe all is not lost for them. Hopefully just a one off and things return to normal for them.

Plymouth earned a decent draw against a good Bristol Rovers side. Also very confident they will have enough to be promoted.

Exeter picked up a lovely win against another top 7 rival so maybe part two is possible also!

Personally it's looking to me as if Ajose finishes top scorer the €10k bet will come in. 3 goals isn't a lot to catch up so I am starting to believe!

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 11.0
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.2
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.66
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.14

Total odds 160.46 -> 24.98
To win £8,023

Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 11.0
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 17.0

Total odds: 272.0 -> 187.0
To win £7,072

chompdown · 29-01-2016 6:15pm

The January bet got off to a great start but fell at the first hurdle when Selby was beaten by O'Sullivan who went on to win the tournament.

Now it is time for the February bet

Bit of a strange one, and the main outsider is Southend to be finish in L1 top 6. I usually like to have one outsider and a few more solid bets which beef up the odds. I won't go into too much detail yet, but will update after the weekend games. Here are the selections:

Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0
Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5
Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44
Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61
Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17
Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6

Total odds: 131.83
Stake: £110
Potential winnings: Approx €19k

chompdown · 04-02-2016 7:16pm

Good and bad from the weekend and busy midweek schedule. Ajose only played 70 odd minutes of a possible 180 (concussion) and didn't score, while all those around him did. So he has drifted!

A mixed bag from the other selections linked to Nicky Ajose.

However, the interesting results came in the new Feb accy. Southend won their second game on the trot with ten men and is was good to get them off with a win in first game since I placed this bet. A couple of other results went their way also. Delighted.

The rest of the selections were quite positive all round, especially the Panthers winning well against one of the best teams in the NHL

So it's update time

Feb
Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0 -> 7.0
Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5 -> 1.4
Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44 -> 1.4
Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61 -> 1.57
Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17 -> 1.2
Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6 -> 3.0

Total odds: 131.83 -> 77.45

Potential winnings: Approx €19k

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 15
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.2
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.73
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.14

Total odds 160.46 -> 35.5
To win £8,023

Ajose Part 2
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 15.0
Exeter City - L2 Top 7 Finish @ 8.00 -> 16.0

Total odds: 272.0 -> 187.0
To win £7,072

chompdown · 07-02-2016 11:48pm

I normally wait until Monday or Tuesday before updating the odds but I feel compelled to tot them up this evening after a cracking start to this new Feb accumulator.

It's the best start of any of the bets so far, by a long way. It has been a very interesting start and all seems to be going great for now at least. First the odds, then a few comments:

Feb
Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0 -> 5.0
Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5 -> 1.3
Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44 -> 1.2
Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61 -> 1.5
Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17 -> 1.1
Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6 -> 2.5

Total odds: 131.83 -> 32.16

:eek: They certainly are short odds for a potential return of €19k! A sea of green!

I didn't expect them to be that low, but that said they could be lower as Southend should be less than 5.0. Coventry drew today, which means they haven't won in 5 games, and have won only 2 of their last 12. They are two points ahead of Southend with a game extra played. Yet Coventry are 1.73 and Southend are 5.0.

I'm not sure if the bookies realise the strength in depth Southend have now after the January transfer window, but I do, and I'm confident they'll finish top 6!

Panthers are the only other selection that are odds against and they have been very impressive, although they threw away a 2-0 lead last night to lose in OT. They had won their previous 5 by three or more goals. Tampa Bay are 6 points behind with a game in hand (2 points for a win).

I'll leave the Ajose odds to another day as he didn't score.

chompdown · 16-02-2016 1:11am

I had a match myself kicking off at 3 o clock on Saturday so missed Jeff and his buddies on Soccer Saturday. I tried to repeat it on my way home from the game by going backwards on the BBC live text commentary.

I started with Swindon and Nicky Ajose. I was absolutely delighted to see Ajose banging two in to close the gap to two... Next up I just checked the Coventry result and saw Armstrong also got 2. Horrible!

Next up, I did the commentary on the Southend game and they lost 1-0 and barely created anything away to Scunthorpe.

Combined with that, the Panthers have been hit with a lot of injuries and have lost 4 in 5. Other teams around them have been inconsistent so they are still 3 points clear.

Exeter also lost 1-0 but all the other selections will defo be shorter after a few decent results. So here's tonight's update:

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 13
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.08
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.61
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.14

Total odds 160.46 -> 25.76

Feb
Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0 -> 6.5
Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5 -> 1.25
Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44 -> 1.33 :eek:
Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61 -> 1.44 :eek:
Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17 -> 1.08
Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6 -> 2.5

Total odds: 131.83 -> 42.01

Ok some comments required on the odds. 24/ is the lowest any of the bets have been this year. It's looking very much like Ajose needs to bag those goals to bring that bet home. Maybe Exeter can do this business in Part 2 but I doubt it.

I actually think the Feb bet has a better chance of coming in. Southend and Florida looking a little shaky but the rest are totally solid.

I'm thinking I may need to put a new bet on, having seen the standout prices on Carpi and Villareal. A lot bigger than other bookies and maybe too good to turn down.

More games tomorrow night, Southend away to Bradford is a particularly important one! Please win Southend

chompdown · 18-02-2016 7:58pm

A disappointing Tuesday night with Southend losing 2-0 away to Bradford. Phil Brown made 6 changes and they were pretty shyte all round by all accounts. Luckily Millwall also lost but Bradford and Scunthorpe are now in and around the playoff places like a bad smell.Southend are three points from the playoffs with 15 games to go, and are at home to Burton on Monday night.Ajose is 4 goals behind Armstrong, also with 15 games to go.Exeter lost to relegation threatened York, so thats them done

A couple of nice results in the ice hockey means Florida are back in command.

Ajose Part 1
Nicky Ajose - L1 Top Goalscorer @ 34.00 -> 10
Burnley - Championship Top 6 @ 1.67 -> 1.07
Plymouth Argyle - L2 Promotion @ 1.57 -> 1.5
Dundee Utd - Finish Bottom of SPL @ 1.80 -> 1.08

Total odds 160.46 -> 17.33

Feb
Southend - L1 Top 6 Finish @ 9.0 -> 7.5
Monaco - Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish @ 1.5 -> 1.25
Carpi - Serie A Relegation @ 1.44 -> 1.33 :eek:
Villarreal - La Liga Top 4 Finish @ 1.61 -> 1.44 :eek:
Burnley - Champ Top 6 Finish @ 1.17 -> 1.07
Florida Panthers - NHL Atlantic Division Winners @ 3.6 -> 2.25

Total odds: 131.83 -> 43.23

A whole lot of green there.

Interesting trivia... The only time I won one of these big bets was a few years back when Nicky Maynard scored on the final day of the season. Now I'm waiting on Nicky Ajose, but more interestingly they are both ex Crewe strikers!

Shanee. · 18-02-2016 8:49pm

Going well for you. Hopefully one of them clicks. Do you partially trade out of your bets or just let them run?

chompdown · 18-02-2016 11:21pm

Thanks bud. I always let them run.

3 years ago I had Benfica in the final of the Europa League to finish off one accumulator to win about €25k and they lost in the last minute to Chelsea.

I had asked the bookie a few days beforehand if there was an option to cash out / settle and they said no. With large potential winnings like this its almost impossible for me to lay off to make guaranteed profit, especially if there is more than one selection in the running.

It's a positive problem and one I hope I have to think about

Already thinking about the March selections. Those odds on offer for Villareal and Carpi are maybe too good to turn down. Need to find an outsider...

Shanee. · 18-02-2016 11:33pm

Yeah I get what your saying. There probably wouldn't be much liquidity on the exchange to lay the likes of League One top goalscorer. Best of luck anyway!

markc91 · 20-02-2016 5:23pm

2 more for arose so far today!

EDIT: Make that 3

The return of the season long €20k challenge

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