Ireland Team Talk/Gossip/Rumour Thread IV

dregin · 24-03-2015 09:00AM

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Johnny cant do it in the big games they say!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zF5rs9flFlw

I don't doubt there're many things Johnny can't do, but I really don't think a video from 4 years ago proves anything about Johnny's current form.

.ak · 24-03-2015 09:38AM

dregin wrote: »

I don't doubt there're many things Johnny can't do, but I really don't think a video from 4 years ago proves anything about Johnny's current form.

The issue is his form isn't being discussed.

It's his 'bottle', because some people share a telepathic link to him and can somehow tell..

Micky Dolenz · 24-03-2015 09:55AM

I met some drunk fella in the jacks the other night, spouting on about sextons missed kicks. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy knocking a player as much as the next man but this lad really took the biscuit. Kickers miss kicks, it's part of the game. Ford and 1/2 penny missed kicks on the day. If you want to go down the road of missed kicks, so factor that in. Stupid.

.ak · 24-03-2015 09:57AM

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

I met some drunk fella in the jacks the other night.

That story could've gone a different way very quickly...

Micky Dolenz · 24-03-2015 09:58AM

I gave the clean version

Buer · 24-03-2015 10:16AM

Goal kicking really does get a microscopic view in this country. Ford was under pressure to slot a penalty in front against us when the game was in the balance and missed it. Then he missed a pretty straight one early against France, when they needed to build a lead. Get those, and they're 6N champions. He had the lowest total of any front line kicker in the tournament aside from Haimona but that's not mentioned and rightly so as he had a very good tournament. Irish kickers miss and the fans are up in arms about it.

24-03-2015 10:22AM

Buer wrote: »

Goal kicking really does get a microscopic view in this country. Ford was under pressure to slot a penalty in front against us when the game was in the balance and missed it. Then he missed a pretty straight one early against France, when they needed to build a lead. Get those, and they're 6N champions. He had the lowest total of any front line kicker in the tournament aside from Haimona but that's not mentioned and rightly so as he had a very good tournament. Irish kickers miss and the fans are up in arms about it.

That is all very true. But what is also true is that Sexton missed two kicks that he'd back himself to get 9 times out of 10 in other circumstances. Nobody on the Irish rugby team can affect Ford's kicking, that's his bit to fix. However someone on the Irish team can affect the Irish kicker's percentage (he himself hopefully!).

If the circumstances are affecting his kicking ability, then that is a valid issue to critique. I don't believe we have enough examples for any sort of conclusion, but if there is an issue with Sexton kicking under pressure, that's not ideal.

Also Madigan's miss was far worse!

shuffol · 24-03-2015 10:23AM

Buer wrote: »

Goal kicking really does get a microscopic view in this country. Ford was under pressure to slot a penalty in front against us when the game was in the balance and missed it. Then he missed a pretty straight one early against France, when they needed to build a lead. Get those, and they're 6N champions. He had the lowest total of any front line kicker in the tournament aside from Haimona but that's not mentioned and rightly so as he had a very good tournament. Irish kickers miss and the fans are up in arms about it.

Can't say I've seen anyone up in arms about it, wouldn't agree with comparing Ford to Sexton, he's so inexperienced at this level.

.ak · 24-03-2015 10:28AM

Buer wrote: »

Goal kicking really does get a microscopic view in this country. Ford was under pressure to slot a penalty in front against us when the game was in the balance and missed it. Then he missed a pretty straight one early against France, when they needed to build a lead. Get those, and they're 6N champions. He had the lowest total of any front line kicker in the tournament aside from Haimona but that's not mentioned and rightly so as he had a very good tournament. Irish kickers miss and the fans are up in arms about it.

Seems to me to be a real Irish thing. Not sure how many times I've heard 'Ah sure I woulda kicked that over, bottler!' from the stands when someone misses a touchline conversion... I think people here take kicking for granted, maybe because we've all done it with a GAA ball and it's far easier. Until you try and kick a heavy oval shaped ball in a straight, or sometimes curved, line then you have no idea how hard it really is. There's also an element of luck to kicking as well, the sweet spot is really small and any deviation can cause the ball to back spin.

I reckon there is an element of GAA history behind it...

.ak · 24-03-2015 10:30AM

Deleted User wrote: »

That is all very true. But what is also true is that Sexton missed two kicks that he'd back himself to get 9 times out of 10 in other circumstances. Nobody on the Irish rugby team can affect Ford's kicking, that's his bit to fix. However someone on the Irish team can affect the Irish kicker's percentage (he himself hopefully!).

If the circumstances are affecting his kicking ability, then that is a valid issue to critique. I don't believe we have enough examples for any sort of conclusion, but if there is an issue with Sexton kicking under pressure, that's not ideal.

Also Madigan's miss was far worse!

Well to be honest the one 'infront of the posts' was taken behind the 5m line, so about 45m out. Sexton isn't a great distance kicker, especially when the ball has to travel straight. So for me only the first miss was a bad one. So, in that sense, he missed the 1 out of 10 you were talking about.

I'm not sure why people don't think that's acceptable?

BoardsMember · 24-03-2015 10:30AM

I think it is fair to say that sometimes Sexton misses pressure kicks. As all kickers do. What's also fair to say is that he usually nails the one after the missed one. That's the sign of someone with serious bottle. I know he missed two in a row the other day, but that is very unusual for him.

molloyjh · 24-03-2015 10:35AM

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

I met some drunk fella in the jacks the other night, spouting on about sextons missed kicks. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy knocking a player as much as the next man but this lad really took the biscuit. Kickers miss kicks, it's part of the game. Ford and 1/2 penny missed kicks on the day. If you want to go down the road of missed kicks, so factor that in. Stupid.

The thing is that on a weekend where it was all coming down to points difference then surely every single kick was a pressure kick. Every kick could have been the difference between winning the 6 Nations or not. Madigans miss for example could have been huge as it meant in the end England just needed a converted try to win the thing and they were bloody close to that. Had it gone over England probably had too much to do.

Every single kick was a pressure kick on Saturday. Sexton made 78% of his place kicks. That's 78% of pressure kicks. I'll take that % any day, especially when he can do all the other things he can do so well.

.ak wrote: »

Seems to me to be a real Irish thing. Not sure how many times I've heard 'Ah sure I woulda kicked that over, bottler!' from the stands when someone misses a touchline conversion... I think people here take kicking for granted, maybe because we've all done it with a GAA ball and it's far easier. Until you try and kick a heavy oval shaped ball in a straight, or sometimes curved, line then you have no idea how hard it really is. There's also an element of luck to kicking as well, the sweet spot is really small and any deviation can cause the ball to back spin.

I reckon there is an element of GAA history behind it...

Bloody GAA. What they give with one hand (awesome aerial skills) they take away with the other (bloody know-it-all fans).

shuffol · 24-03-2015 10:41AM

molloyjh wrote: »

The thing is that on a weekend where it was all coming down to points difference then surely every single kick was a pressure kick. Every kick could have been the difference between winning the 6 Nations or not. Madigans miss for example could have been huge as it meant in the end England just needed a converted try to win the thing and they were bloody close to that. Had it gone over England probably had too much to do.

The two he missed were to overtake Wales points tally. He knew it and it seemed to affect him.

molloyjh · 24-03-2015 11:16AM

shuffol wrote: »

The two he missed were to overtake Wales points tally. He knew it and it seemed to affect him.

That's a serious assumption you're making. Maybe it did, maybe it didn't. One of those kicks was one that he'd miss every now and again anyway, 45m out. The other came off the post. The next kick came under the same circumstances + the additional pressure of having missed the previous 2. He got that one. The other 6 he got were pressure kicks as well because every point mattered. Any missed kick could have been the difference in the end.

The guy is human so if he let the pressure get to him a small bit on that first miss then so be it. As long as it didn't mess him up from there on in it's not really an issue. He backed himself after that and while he missed a tough kick the next time around he didn't miss a third time. He also didn't let either miss affect the rest of his game.

A bottler (which some have called him) is someone who crumbles under pressure. Johnny simply didn't do that. At all. He may have let pressure get to him very briefly on 1 place kick or he may simply have made a mistake. His kicking % on the day was in and around what you'd expect from him so I'm not sure you can say with any certainty that it was in fact the pressure that caused that miss.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 24-03-2015 11:20AM

Johnny came off with some sort of re-occurrence of his hamstring injuries.

Johnny was hurt 10 minutes before he came off the field.

Johnny kicked 1/3 during the time he was playing hurt.

Simples.

Micky Dolenz · 24-03-2015 11:23AM

There is no way the guy is a bottler, I think it's mental to even suggest it. The guy is world class and I doubted him a lot in the early years. He, like all kickers, will miss from time to time. But why concentrate on that aspect of his game.

He is far more than just a kicker, out of hand or tee. He has effectively closed the 10 channel for opposing teams to run at. You run at him at your peril.

Overall he had a brilliant championship and dare I say it, we would not have won without him.

Missed kicks? Bollocks.

24-03-2015 11:25AM

He made 6/6 of his pressure kicks against France

Rightwing · 24-03-2015 11:35AM

Sexton wouldn't be my first choice kicker under pressure. Maybe 3rd or 4th in world rugby. As someone said, they nearly all miss kicks under pressure.

sydthebeat · 24-03-2015 11:41AM

http://www.the42.ie/ken-quarrie-place-kicking-study-1318135-Feb2014/

David Humphreys irelands most consistent kicker

padser · 24-03-2015 11:55AM

molloyjh wrote: »

When you do look at it though what are the kicks that people say are the pressure ones that he missed? The NZ game is often referenced, but wasn't he injured and about to come off as a result anyway? It just so happened that the next break in play was a penalty and so he had to stay on for that.

The France game is referenced as well when he missed a few in the first half. Yet people ignore the fact he slotted at least 2 in the second half. Were they not pressure kicks as well? He slotted more kicks than he missed in that game and surely they were all pressure kicks.

Then against Scotland he missed 2 that would have put us ahead of Wales sure, but he also got the one that ultimately put us ahead of Wales after missing 2 on the trot. How was that kick not a pressure kick?

In all of those games Sexton converted more than he missed, yet the ones he missed are labelled as pressure kicks and the ones he didn't conveniently ignored. What about the England game in Twickenham last year? Do people think there were no "pressure kicks" in that game where he converted 100% of his kicks? What actually is a "pressure kick" really?

Sure he isn't a Leigh Halfpenney (guys like him aren't exactly the norm) and I'm sure he himself would want to improve his kicking percentages, but he's still a very good place kicker and given everything else he brings those few misses here and there are a reasonable trade off. But having some Irish "supporters" calling the guy a choker the day after we won a back to back 6 Nations title is just pathetic. He can continue to miss the odd one here and there as far as I'm concerned as long as the other elements of his game remain at the level they are at.

I'm the poster here who started the debate about Sextons missed kicks (at least on this thread). I certainly didn't label Sexton a "choker" and I don't think anyone in the subsequent posts did either.

It's not "pathetic" to raise a question over one aspect of someone's game. Just because someone is world class or because we won the 6 nations doesn't suddenly make it "pathetic" to question an aspect of their game.

What is pathetic, and IMHO it significantly lowers the standard of conversation and debate on the rugby forum, is the inability of certain posters to engage constructively engage in debate around certain players (Sexton, Zebo etc). Rather than engage constructively, we get labels like "pathetic" thrown around in an effort to make it look like there is an agenda being pushed.

I'm done on this. There is a prima facia case that Sextons kicking % drops in big games, particularly as those games get towards a conclusion and the kicks become more important. It's possible (particularly as the sample size is small) that this is coincidence or an issue of perception. No one has really been able show this is the case though. I'm still concerned about it for the WC.

Micky Dolenz · 24-03-2015 12:00PM

I've been reading this forum a long while now and I have to disagree. I think it's great. Largely due to the mod team, you guys do a great job btw and particularly over the last 6 weeks, the place is a joy to browse. I've learnt loads from the knowledgeable posters here.

Long may it continue.

Buer · 24-03-2015 12:00PM

shuffol wrote: »

Can't say I've seen anyone up in arms about it, wouldn't agree with comparing Ford to Sexton, he's so inexperienced at this level.

The exact same criticisms were being made of Sexton at the same point in his international career and earlier.

Podge_irl · 24-03-2015 12:02PM

padser wrote: »

There is a prima facia case that Sextons kicking % drops in big games, particularly as those games get towards a conclusion and the kicks become more important.

It's something that nags at me a little bit too, and certainly my perception is that he's not as reliable as others at certain times, but I haven't actually seen any evidence that this is actually the case. We're obviously going to remember the missed clutch kicks more than all the others. I don't remember any issues between the game that will not be mentioned and Saturday. And even then, his third kick was pretty bloody important and high pressure and he nailed it.

Buer · 24-03-2015 12:11PM

padser wrote: »

I'm done on this. There is a prima facia case that Sextons kicking % drops in big games, particularly as those games get towards a conclusion and the kicks become more important. It's possible (particularly as the sample size is small) that this is coincidence or an issue of perception. No one has really been able show this is the case though. I'm still concerned about it for the WC.

It's something of confirmation bias. If you read that linked study carried out in NZ, we can see that Sexton's kicking percentages were poor for the first couple of years of international rugby. But they actually increased significantly for what they determined to be pressure kicks. I don't have the information to hand but I'd be pretty confident his kicking percentages have increased significantly since then (study was completed at end of 2011 RWC).

For example, I would be pretty confident very few people would select David Humphreys as Ireland's most successful kicker of the professional era. But he is.

It's a perception based on assumptions, really. I would say he does have the odd wobble under pressure. As absolutely every kicker does.

I'm not sure I know of a kicker who hasn't. I'm sure Steyn has although I can't think of one. I know I've seen world class kickers like ROG, Paterson and Carter all have stinkers in important games when the pressure was on. It doesn't mean anything. It just means they happened to miss some kicks that happened to be when they were under additional scrutiny. I'm sure they all miss even more kicks when they aren't, also, just nobody remembers them or discusses them.

dub_skav · 24-03-2015 12:13PM

I'm not having a go at anybody here (honest,

).

People are discussing Sexton's kicking in pressure situations, which I think is a fair enough discussion to have.
I don't agree with the premise that he suffers under pressure, but it is a reasonable discussion to have.
I believe Kidney's extremely poor handling of the 1st choice outhalf situation in 2011 World Cup dented Sexton's confidence and people got on his back about kicking and this has left an impression, the fact that ROG was the other player in that drama just made things worse.
Now, that is not necessarily a memory that is colouring people's perceptions, but I think it has some bearing.

But, the bit I find funny is people's use of statistics and specific instances in the same arguments. Most people seem to agree that nobody expects a guy to get 100% of his kicks and that high 80s is a great percentage.
But, then people say that he misses some kicks in important situations, or that he misses some easy ones, or that when he misses he shouldn't have etc.

The 2 points just don't tally for me. You either accept that kickers miss some times and that his % is good, or you don't. To say yeah well the ones he gets are grand, but he misses all the ones he misses is a bit odd. It reminds me of simple statistics as per below:

Buer · 24-03-2015 12:16PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

We're obviously going to remember the missed clutch kicks more than all the others. I don't remember any issues between the game that will not be mentioned and Saturday. .

That's a large part of it. He missed a kick on his good side against England that was relatively straightforward (a bit of an angle). Nobody mentions it. Ireland were in front and the perception is that it doesn't matter because we were already ahead. The fact is, he missed that kick when the game was in the balance and it was an important one.

Rightwing · 24-03-2015 12:20PM

dub_skav wrote: »

I'm not having a go at anybody here (honest, ).

People are discussing Sexton's kicking in pressure situations, which I think is a fair enough discussion to have.
I don't agree with the premise that he suffers under pressure, but it is a reasonable discussion to have.
I believe Kidney's extremely poor handling of the 1st choice outhalf situation in 2011 World Cup dented Sexton's confidence and people got on his back about kicking and this has left an impression, the fact that ROG was the other player in that drama just made things worse.
Now, that is not necessarily a memory that is colouring people's perceptions, but I think it has some bearing.

But, the bit I find funny is people's use of statistics and specific instances in the same arguments. Most people seem to agree that nobody expects a guy to get 100% of his kicks and that high 80s is a great percentage.
But, then people say that he misses some kicks in important situations, or that he misses some easy ones, or that when he misses he shouldn't have etc.

The 2 points just don't tally for me. You either accept that kickers miss some times and that his % is good, or you don't. To say yeah well the ones he gets are grand, but he misses all the ones he misses is a bit odd. It reminds me of simple statistics as per below:

It's all about pressure. Mental toughness, that's what makes penalty kicks in the World cup so spectacular. People say that is a lottery, rubbish.

.ak · 24-03-2015 12:23PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

It's something that nags at me a little bit too, and certainly my perception is that he's not as reliable as others at certain times, but I haven't actually seen any evidence that this is actually the case. We're obviously going to remember the missed clutch kicks more than all the others. I don't remember any issues between the game that will not be mentioned and Saturday. And even then, his third kick was pretty bloody important and high pressure and he nailed it.

Personally I don't think he's a reliable kicker either, and his stats sort of prove this.

My issue is people think his misses are due to the pressure which is impossible to tell, because as others point out he makes 'pressure' kicks as well.

It's far more likely he's an 85% kicker and so will miss 15%-20% of his kicks, regardless of where they are on the pitch or what sort of pressure he's under.

molloyjh · 24-03-2015 12:26PM

padser wrote: »

I'm the poster here who started the debate about Sextons missed kicks (at least on this thread). I certainly didn't label Sexton a "choker" and I don't think anyone in the subsequent posts did either.

It's not "pathetic" to raise a question over one aspect of someone's game. Just because someone is world class or because we won the 6 nations doesn't suddenly make it "pathetic" to question an aspect of their game.

What is pathetic, and IMHO it significantly lowers the standard of conversation and debate on the rugby forum, is the inability of certain posters to engage constructively engage in debate around certain players (Sexton, Zebo etc). Rather than engage constructively, we get labels like "pathetic" thrown around in an effort to make it look like there is an agenda being pushed.

I'm done on this. There is a prima facia case that Sextons kicking % drops in big games, particularly as those games get towards a conclusion and the kicks become more important. It's possible (particularly as the sample size is small) that this is coincidence or an issue of perception. No one has really been able show this is the case though. I'm still concerned about it for the WC.

The words bottler and choker def appeared, which is exactly why I said what I said. I never claimed that what you said was pathetic, I said people calling guy a choker was pathetic. If you didn't do that then the "pathetic" comment was never aimed at you. So you can relax there padser. My post was never directly aimed at you. If I gave that impression then I'm sorry.

However one point that I will bring up is that you have said people haven't proven that the issue here is perception. I'd argue that nobody has shown that there even is an issue with pressure kicks at all. And seeing as you raised it as a concern surely the burden of proof in that regard is on you.

I also fail to see how I'm not discussing this constructively when I'm using the only examples people have come up with to "prove" this issue to show that there are examples that also disprove it. As Buer says above I do think there is confirmation bias at work here. For example Sexton converted a penalty after missing the 2 against Scotland yet he missed a penalty against Australia in the 11th minute in November. He missed 2 conversions and a penalty in Argentina in the summer yet he successfully kicked 2 place kicks in the second half against France in the last game of the 6 Nations last year after missing one on the stroke of half time. He misses kicks from time to time. In pressure situations and in non-pressure situations. It's easy to say in the high pressure situations that the misses were related to the pressure, but does that then mean that every miss in those games is down to the pressure despite the fact that he misses kicks in other games as well? Or is it fair to say that from time to time he misses kicks and some of those times happen to be in high pressure situations?

EDIT: The truth, as I'm fond of saying, is probably somewhere in the middle. Sexton misses kicks from time to time. Like any kicker. And like any kicker increased pressure likely increases the possibility of him missing. The question then is at what point does that become an issue? Given that in the vast majority of games where it's been flagged as being an issue he's gone on to score place kicks after missing for me suggests it's not that big of an issue at all. Some people have said that it's inevitable that this will cost us at some stage, but you could say that about a whole host of things. Bests line-out throws, a player knocking on, POM getting pinged for not supporting his weight at the breakdown etc, etc. If a game is turning on a single incident like that then the team as a whole haven't done enough to secure the victory and placing blame on a single individual would be a bit disingenuous in a game that's all about the team.

Riskymove · 24-03-2015 12:26PM

.ak wrote: »

Personally I don't think he's a reliable kicker either, and his stats sort of prove this.

My issue is people think his misses are due to the pressure which is impossible to tell, because as others point out he makes 'pressure' kicks as well.

It's far more likely he's an 85% kicker and so will miss 15%-20% of his kicks, regardless of where they are on the pitch or what sort of pressure he's under.

agree completely but still a real concern for close games, particularly given the approach this year which resulted in limited tries.

Ireland Team Talk/Gossip/Rumour Thread IV

Comments