Ireland Team Talk/Gossip/Rumour Thread IV

Tox56 · 23-03-2015 08:48AM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Noone is criticising his overall kicking statistics though.

The problem is the kicks that he misses often come during big games and they are often from very kickable positions. I don't know why people are so hesitant to acknowledge that this is the case, it's a common occurrence at this stage.

It's the only downside I can think of when I think of Sexton's game. He's giong to start for us regardless, and he's going to kick for us regardless. It's just something he's going to have to work out.

But is that really the case? He missed a pretty straightforward penalty against England halfway through the first half and missed another gettable one against Wales for his first kick. He seems to miss at least one or two every game, which is inevitable because he obviously isn't a 100% kicker. The logic seems to be where people are working backwards from this was a big kick, that was why he missed it. Is it not more accurate to say he very often misses kicks in every game, and they are often from kickable positions

23-03-2015 08:51AM

Need more Henshaws

irishbucsfan · 23-03-2015 09:08AM

Tox56 wrote: »

But is that really the case? He missed a pretty straightforward penalty against England halfway through the first half and missed another gettable one against Wales for his first kick. He seems to miss at least one or two every game, which is inevitable because he obviously isn't a 100% kicker. The logic seems to be where people are working backwards from this was a big kick, that was why he missed it. Is it not more accurate to say he very often misses kicks in every game, and they are often from kickable positions

But it seems that the regular misses in front of the posts happen on big occasions more so than the easier ones. Like last weekend, like France last year, like New Zealand etc.

Even if he misses easy kicks every week it's still a major flaw, he is more than capable of making those kicks so clearly something is going wrong on the occasions where he does miss them. It could be related to the intensity he brings in other aspects of the game, I have absolutely no idea and I don't really want to guess.

It's still a clear problem of his, regardless of whether it's related to the occasion or just his inability to convert easy chances on any given day, I think it's the former but I haven't exactly studied it.

irishbucsfan · 23-03-2015 09:11AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Need more Henshaws

Henshaw may not be THE player of the tournament but he is my player of the tournament.

He was our best back, he was one of the best backs in the competition. It's very easy to forget already that he's 21 years old. He is a very special player. The media should be going bonkers about this guy (maybe if he was scoring tries they would be).

padser · 23-03-2015 09:24AM

rrpc wrote: »

Seriously, this is becoming a joke. Sexton missed four kicks this 6N. His percentage was 84%, he was 100% against France where every kick mattered. In contrast, George Ford who everyone seems to think was better at place kicking had 76%.

He was struggling with a hamstring injury through the last two games where his percentage dropped from 80% against Wales to 77% against Scotland.

I'm not questioning his overall stats. His overall kicking percentages are very good (normally high 80's so 84 is actually a little below his average).

I'm simply pointing out a weakness (one of the very few) in his game and the fact it's concerning. Unfortunately in the vey biggest games, with the most on the line, his kicking stats seem to dip significantly. This presents a problem for us.

It doesn't change the fact he is the first name on the teamsheet (bar none) IMO. It does mean we should be worried about a last minute penalty we need to progress to the next round (in a way that we wouldn't necessarily need to if we had, for example, halfpenny kicking for us).

padser · 23-03-2015 09:28AM

Tox56 wrote: »

But is that really the case? He missed a pretty straightforward penalty against England halfway through the first half and missed another gettable one against Wales for his first kick. He seems to miss at least one or two every game, which is inevitable because he obviously isn't a 100% kicker. The logic seems to be where people are working backwards from this was a big kick, that was why he missed it. Is it not more accurate to say he very often misses kicks in every game, and they are often from kickable positions

Yeah it's a fair point, I'd love to see someone do a analysis of it. Maybey perception is wrong and I just remember the critical ones he misses more than others (which would make sense).

Even back in his Leinster days though, I always felt he was a little suspect on the big kicks, my heart was constantly in my mouth..,

ScissorPaperRock · 23-03-2015 09:49AM

How's Paddy Jackson's return from injury coming along?

I really hope he can build some form and come into contention for the World Cup. If he can build some consistency and confidence over the coming months he would probably be the closest thing to a like-for-like replacement for Sexton.

bilston · 23-03-2015 09:51AM

ScissorPaperRock wrote: »

How's Paddy Jackson's return from injury coming along?

I really hope he can build some form and come into contention for the World Cup. If he can build some consistency and confidence over the coming months he would probably be the closest thing to a like-for-like replacement for Sexton.

He played for the Ravens last week and will most likely start against Cardiff this weekend. Some chat that Henry could be back quite soon as well.

.ak · 23-03-2015 09:59AM

padser wrote: »

The only big concern for me coming out of yesterday was Sextons place kicking.

By chance, yesterday morning I ended up re watching a lot of the French game from last year, and I'd completely forgotten that Sextons kicking almost cost us that game.

There is no getting away from the fact, in the highest pressure situations, Johnny is prone to repeated missing of what should be 90%+ kicks for him.

The silver lining is that it doesn't negatively impact the rest of his game, but the fact remains, we will have some seriously high pressure kicks (hopefully) in the World Cup.

But in the end his kicking won us that game, and also his kicking put us ahead of Wales.

I think it's bad logic to look at that way, he's an 80% kicker, he's bound to miss a few. It's just something we'll have to accept and move on. He's a very good kicker, and has proven himself under pressure situations, but he's not flawless... Few are.

I think people are confusing misses with pressure misses. The fact it's impossible to tell if it's a pressure kick situation. For me it's far more likely the guy just misses the odd kick. There are no easy place kicks in rugby. Anyone who's tried it will know.

Another interesting thing to note is he primarily takes most of his practice kicks from the sidelines. He rarely practices kicks from infront of the posts.

molloyjh · 23-03-2015 10:20AM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Henshaw may not be THE player of the tournament but he is my player of the tournament.

He was our best back, he was one of the best backs in the competition. It's very easy to forget already that he's 21 years old. He is a very special player. The media should be going bonkers about this guy (maybe if he was scoring tries they would be).

Yeah the wife asked me yesterday who my player of the tournament was and I said Henshaw as well. For such a young guy to have found his feet at Test level the way he has and become a genuinely important player that quickly is really impressive. I haven't checked it but he's surely got the highest tackle count for Ireland. Add to that some of the attacking work we saw from him on Saturday and some of the carrying and chasing he's done throughout and I can't help but get excited about what we may see from him in the next few years.

23-03-2015 11:03AM

padser wrote: »

Yeah it's a fair point, I'd love to see someone do a analysis of it. Maybey perception is wrong and I just remember the critical ones he misses more than others (which would make sense).

Even back in his Leinster days though, I always felt he was a little suspect on the big kicks, my heart was constantly in my mouth..,

You said it yourself when it's your perception rather than analysis. I really think this is a case of selective memory. Of course everyone is going to fixate on a high profile miss. But the dozens of difficult pressure kicks that he nails get swept under the rug.

RobbieRuns · 23-03-2015 11:11AM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Henshaw may not be THE player of the tournament but he is my player of the tournament.

He was our best back, he was one of the best backs in the competition. It's very easy to forget already that he's 21 years old. He is a very special player. The media should be going bonkers about this guy (maybe if he was scoring tries they would be).

Maybe if he was at another club but Connacht they would be. Saw all the Ulster selfies, the Munster selfies, the Leinster selfies, the front row selfies, the back row selfies............... Don't worry Robbie, we don't need a selfie of you.......... love you anyways !

stephen_n · 23-03-2015 11:40AM

Sexton clearly wasn't comfortable from just before half time on Saturday, the problem is (a) we don't have another recognised kicker on the pitch and (b) Sexton probably wouldn't allow anyone take the kick, even if he was carrying an injury. Managing a leg injury while kicking is definitely going to affect your performance.

Obviously the misses that effect the outcomes of games will stand out more in people's memories but the similar kicks that are missed are ignored. All kickers miss a certain percentage, sexton missed 4 kicks, two on Saturday will be remembered as possibly bottling it, the other two will just be forgotten.

Korat · 23-03-2015 11:51AM

I'm really looking forward to the World Cup. The warm ups against Wales are ideal preparation as long they're not too attritional. It would be great to assert our NH dominance before the tournament kicks off. We left something behind in Cardiff.

.ak · 23-03-2015 12:36PM

I'd imagine we'll lose most of our warm up games as we'll be experimenting...

OR, Schmidt might be looking at momentum, not experiment much, and we'll aim to win them all.

dub_skav · 23-03-2015 12:37PM

.ak wrote: »

I'd imagine we'll lose most of our warm up games as we'll be experimenting...

OR, Schmidt might be looking at momentum, not experiment much, and we'll aim to win them all.

Or we'll draw them all:P

23-03-2015 12:57PM

.ak wrote: »

I'd imagine we'll lose most of our warm up games as we'll be experimenting...

OR, Schmidt might be looking at momentum, not experiment much, and we'll aim to win them all.

We're going to need to have one big performance before the WC just to blow the cobwebs off so we will see our "first choice" squad at least once.

To be honest, I'll be watching through my fingers in case we have another David Wallace incident.

But we need the games and it has to be done.

bilston · 23-03-2015 01:17PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We're going to need to have one big performance before the WC just to blow the cobwebs off so we will see our "first choice" squad at least once.

To be honest, I'll be watching through my fingers in case we have another David Wallace incident.

But we need the games and it has to be done.

Geordan Murphy was another, broke his leg just before the 2003 WC in a warm up

TommyOM · 23-03-2015 01:28PM

The only injury that would actually derail any WC hopes is Jonathan Sexton.

rrpc · 23-03-2015 01:35PM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

But it seems that the regular misses in front of the posts happen on big occasions more so than the easier ones. Like last weekend, like France last year, like New Zealand etc.

Even if he misses easy kicks every week it's still a major flaw, he is more than capable of making those kicks so clearly something is going wrong on the occasions where he does miss them. It could be related to the intensity he brings in other aspects of the game, I have absolutely no idea and I don't really want to guess.

I'd need to see a map of his missed kicks before I could draw any conclusions. but having spoken to kickers about what kicks they have most trouble with, for right footers it's almost always two positions: In front of the posts from about 35-40m out and on the fifteen on the right hand side.

I didn't get to talk to any left footers, but generally they are better kickers than right footers for some reason.

Podge_irl · 23-03-2015 01:37PM

.ak wrote: »

I'd imagine we'll lose most of our warm up games as we'll be experimenting...

But sure so will everyone else be. The result of these games is the very definition of irrelevant.

SaveOurLyric · 23-03-2015 02:04PM

marco_polo wrote: »

Very pleased that Payne got his try as well, I really think he has had a much better tournament than he has got credit for.

Edit: On another note I think it is pretty clear that Earls in next in line after Luke in Joels plans (perhaps only a fit Trimble would have any effect on this), there is no reason to think he won't be give a chance to stake his claim in the warm ups. Sometimes you'd swear it was a bad thing to be blessed with plenty of talented options in the back division going into the RWC.

There will be no 'staking of claims' in the warm ups.
Joe knows the team he wants. Continuity of involvement and sustained match fitness are the only things that change that.
The warm up will be to hone the first teams cohesion. And to give peripheral players a runout to prepare them for the minor games. Playing well or not it the warm ups will not change the starting teams for the significant games.

molloyjh · 23-03-2015 02:18PM

rrpc wrote: »

I'd need to see a map of his missed kicks before I could draw any conclusions. but having spoken to kickers about what kicks they have most trouble with, for right footers it's almost always two positions: In front of the posts from about 35-40m out and on the fifteen on the right hand side.

I didn't get to talk to any left footers, but generally they are better kickers than right footers for some reason.

When you do look at it though what are the kicks that people say are the pressure ones that he missed? The NZ game is often referenced, but wasn't he injured and about to come off as a result anyway? It just so happened that the next break in play was a penalty and so he had to stay on for that.

The France game is referenced as well when he missed a few in the first half. Yet people ignore the fact he slotted at least 2 in the second half. Were they not pressure kicks as well? He slotted more kicks than he missed in that game and surely they were all pressure kicks.

Then against Scotland he missed 2 that would have put us ahead of Wales sure, but he also got the one that ultimately put us ahead of Wales after missing 2 on the trot. How was that kick not a pressure kick?

In all of those games Sexton converted more than he missed, yet the ones he missed are labelled as pressure kicks and the ones he didn't conveniently ignored. What about the England game in Twickenham last year? Do people think there were no "pressure kicks" in that game where he converted 100% of his kicks? What actually is a "pressure kick" really?

Sure he isn't a Leigh Halfpenney (guys like him aren't exactly the norm) and I'm sure he himself would want to improve his kicking percentages, but he's still a very good place kicker and given everything else he brings those few misses here and there are a reasonable trade off. But having some Irish "supporters" calling the guy a choker the day after we won a back to back 6 Nations title is just pathetic. He can continue to miss the odd one here and there as far as I'm concerned as long as the other elements of his game remain at the level they are at.

Korat · 23-03-2015 02:21PM

.ak wrote: »

I'd imagine we'll lose most of our warm up games as we'll be experimenting...

Really?

I can't imagine Schmidt changing a winning formula.

We play Wales twice and I think we'll just try start quicker and hope the ref isn't Wayne Barnes.

total former · 23-03-2015 02:26PM

.ak wrote: »

I'd imagine we'll lose most of our warm up games as we'll be experimenting...

OR, Schmidt might be looking at momentum, not experiment much, and we'll aim to win them all.

I think it will be the latter tbh. There is a core squad of 30-35 players there and I don't think he'll be throwing lads in just to see what they can do. That's bad news for the likes of Marmion, Gilroy, Olding and Cave.

shuffol · 23-03-2015 02:34PM

molloyjh wrote: »

When you do look at it though what are the kicks that people say are the pressure ones that he missed? The NZ game is often referenced, but wasn't he injured and about to come off as a result anyway? It just so happened that the next break in play was a penalty and so he had to stay on for that.

The France game is referenced as well when he missed a few in the first half. Yet people ignore the fact he slotted at least 2 in the second half. Were they not pressure kicks as well? He slotted more kicks than he missed in that game and surely they were all pressure kicks.

Then against Scotland he missed 2 that would have put us ahead of Wales sure, but he also got the one that ultimately put us ahead of Wales after missing 2 on the trot. How was that kick not a pressure kick?

In all of those games Sexton converted more than he missed, yet the ones he missed are labelled as pressure kicks and the ones he didn't conveniently ignored. What about the England game in Twickenham last year? Do people think there were no "pressure kicks" in that game where he converted 100% of his kicks? What actually is a "pressure kick" really?

Sure he isn't a Leigh Halfpenney (guys like him aren't exactly the norm) and I'm sure he himself would want to improve his kicking percentages, but he's still a very good place kicker and given everything else he brings those few misses here and there are a reasonable trade off. But having some Irish "supporters" calling the guy a choker the day after we won a back to back 6 Nations title is just pathetic. He can continue to miss the odd one here and there as far as I'm concerned as long as the other elements of his game remain at the level they are at.

He does have a tendency to miss straightforward kicks in crucial games for Ireland. The first miss against Scotland was one he'd bang over in his sleep, the second was a bit more difficult but he struck it horribly, ditto a couple of penalties against France last year. The NZ wasn't a sitter but the timing of his entire routine seemed to go to astray, he stood over the ball for an age. He's still a super goalkicker but in a pressure cooker game I'd honestly be nervous with him even for straightforward kicks. One thing though is that he seems to be able to put some bad misses behind him and recover.

He's never really had any issues for Leinster though as far as I recall. I think his demeanour was a bit different when he was playing for Leinster though, like it was his team and he was the main man.

total former · 23-03-2015 02:39PM

So on that, the RWC squad might look like this? Definites in bold, maybe in italics

Front row:
McGrath, Healy, Cronin, Best, Moore, Ross, Bent, Strauss
I think Strauss is 99% on the plane, hard to see anyone overtaking him. If they only bring five props, then Bent is the best candidate but bringing six might mean Cronin and Furlong going. I fear Nathan White has missed his chance.

Second row:
O'Connell, Toner, Henderson, Tuohy
Ryan and McCarthy might be in the shakeup but I think Tuohy is the most likely

Back row:
Heaslip, O'Mahony, O'Brien, Ruddock, Murphy
A lot depends on how/when Henry comes back but I think Murphy has nailed down his seat on the plane and bringing Ruddock gives additional specialist cover at six. TOD will be unlucky but having him, Murphy and O'Brien is too many 7s.

Scrum half:
Murray, Reddan, Boss
No debate here I think.

Out half:
Sexton, Madigan, Jackson
Jackson has to show some serious form quickly, having been out of favour and then injured, but I think he'll get the nod.

Outside backs:
Henshaw, Payne, Bowe, Fitzgerald, Kearney, Earls, Jones
I think Trimble will miss out because he just won't have time to force himself back in. Earls just needs to keep doing what he's doing and you'd have to think that Jones will continue to amaze us all with his selection. Harsh on Zebo but I can't see him forcing any of the above guys out. McFadden might be an outside bet for his versatility.

molloyjh · 23-03-2015 03:00PM

shuffol wrote: »

He does have a tendency to miss straightforward kicks in crucial games for Ireland. The first miss against Scotland was one he'd bang over in his sleep, the second was a bit more difficult but he struck it horribly, ditto a couple of penalties against France last year. The NZ wasn't a sitter but the timing of his entire routine seemed to go to astray, he stood over the ball for an age. He's still a super goalkicker but in a pressure cooker game I'd honestly be nervous with him even for straightforward kicks. One thing though is that he seems to be able to put some bad misses behind him and recover.

He's never really had any issues for Leinster though as far as I recall. I think his demeanour was a bit different when he was playing for Leinster though, like it was his team and he was the main man.

The point that I was making is that he isn't a top class goal kicker. There are very few of those actually around at the moment. He misses kicks from time to time. Some of those are in high pressure situations and some of them are not. It is a weakness in his game compared to the likes of Halfpenney, but it's not enough to be getting too worked up over given everything else he brings.

Synode · 23-03-2015 03:08PM

molloyjh wrote: »

The point that I was making is that he isn't a top class goal kicker.

I'd call any 80%+ kicker top class

total former · 23-03-2015 03:12PM

molloyjh wrote: »

The point that I was making is that he isn't a top class goal kicker. There are very few of those actually around at the moment. He misses kicks from time to time. Some of those are in high pressure situations and some of them are not. It is a weakness in his game compared to the likes of Halfpenney, but it's not enough to be getting too worked up over given everything else he brings.

Halfpenny's goal-kicking is over-rated IMO. I don't think his stats are any better than Sexton's.

Ireland Team Talk/Gossip/Rumour Thread IV

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