Good economic news thread

Kermit.de.frog · 18-03-2015 09:01PM

Sinn Féin have earned their reputation for themselves. It's not only their past and their ambivalence to republican murders, rape allegations, kangaroo courts etc but in economic terms it's a dangerous party for a country like Ireland that exports to survive.

If your party is going to cozy up to Castro, Chavez and Syriza (who are in the process of destroying not only what is left of the Greek economy but also doing irreparable damage to the image of Greece and the Greek people who at this stage are held up to about the same level of the Roma in terms of what people think of them in Europe and are about to be tossed out of the first world effectively and the euro) there are serious questions that need to be looked at.

We want to bring this ideology and chaos in to Ireland? We have far more to lose than Greece - we have a large exporting base that supports 100's of thousands of jobs and a lot of that is in multinationals as well.

If you don't work, if you are on the dole or unemployable - SF is logically great for you and you should support them.

But if you are a worker in this country on anything over 30k you would want to think long and hard about what such a party would do to your income and the risk posed to your employment if foreign execs are forced out due to the theft of 60% of their earnings in income tax. Their idea of "rich" is not over 100k, their numbers are illogical. They would have to raise tax on every worker in this country to give the spoils to their traditional supporter base.

I think people are right to question the difficulties posed if they had a successful election. Far from guaranteed and I don't believe they will form part of any gov after the next election but if they did...

KingBrian2 · 18-03-2015 09:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sinn Féin have earned their reputation for themselves. It's not only their past and their ambivalence to republican murders, rape allegations, kangaroo courts etc but in economic terms it's a dangerous party for a country like Ireland that exports to survive.

If your party is going to cozy up to Castro, Chavez and Syriza (who are in the process of destroying not only what is left of the Greek economy but also doing irreparable damage to the image of Greece and the Greek people who at this stage are held up to about the same level of the Roma in terms of what people think of them in Europe and are about to be tossed out of the first world effectively and the euro) there are serious questions that need to be looked at.

We want to bring this ideology and chaos in to Ireland? We have far more to lose than Greece - we have a large exporting base that supports 100's of thousands of jobs and a lot of that is in multinationals as well.

If you don't work, if you are on the dole or unemployable - SF is logically great for you and you should support them.

But if you are a worker in this country on anything over 30k you would want to think long and hard about what such a party would do to your income and the risk posed to your employment if foreign execs are forced out due to the theft of 60% of their earnings in income tax. Their idea of "rich" is not over 100k, their numbers are illogical. They would have to raise tax on every worker in this country to give the spoils to their traditional supporter base.

I think people are right to question the difficulties posed if they had a successful election. Far from guaranteed and I don't believe they will form part of any gov after the next election but if they did...

It is a false choice though, there are many Left wing parties that are not like the extreme left. The Labour party is as much a left wing party just minus the virulent message of many other marginal parties. The Greens and FF there I say it also have very little in common with FG so to suggest that we can either chose Austerity and hate it or vote to destroy the country with SF is just not true. Voters will have to be more careful who they want to represent them.

andrew · 18-03-2015 09:51PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

OK lets do GNP then.

GDP, GNP ... in this case, it's all much of a muchness ... 'did you ever see/ a drawing of a muchness?'

The extent to which employment lags GNP growth is debatable. I don't see any reason why Irish employment should be taking so long to recover when GNP has recovered so well compared to the period before the crash.

Unless ... unless ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/crackdown-fails-to-halt-flow-of-irish-tax-inversion-deals-1.2141404

Maybe it's due to Hysteresis? There might still be a large number of people who worked the construction sector who are now long term unemployed, the number of people employed in that sector during the boom was stupidly big.

micosoft · 19-03-2015 02:29PM

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ntma-sells-t-bills-at-negative-interest-rate-for-first-time-1.2145451

Investors are now paying the Irish Government to hold their money for them.....

micosoft · 19-03-2015 02:31PM

KingBrian2 wrote: »

It is a false choice though, there are many Left wing parties that are not like the extreme left. The Labour party is as much a left wing party just minus the virulent message of many other marginal parties. The Greens and FF there I say it also have very little in common with FG so to suggest that we can either chose Austerity and hate it or vote to destroy the country with SF is just not true. Voters will have to be more careful who they want to represent them.

This left/right dichotomy in Ireland is false. Our choice is between more or less populist parties and whether that party targets your demograph with it's populist policies. There is little or no evidence if there is serious thinking behind much of what is being peddled as "hard left" and certainly not Sinn Fein. It's populism.

Godge · 19-03-2015 04:47PM

micosoft wrote: »

This left/right dichotomy in Ireland is false. Our choice is between more or less populist parties and whether that party targets your demograph with it's populist policies. There is little or no evidence if there is serious thinking behind much of what is being peddled as "hard left" and certainly not Sinn Fein. It's populism.

I agree.

I am a social democrat by nature and would vote for a party that ensures everyone pays some income tax, that the income tax system is progressive, that provides supports to those who need them but gradually removes those supports if they refuse to engage in getting back to work, that brings in usage charges (and there is a long list of these in other countries) for public services not just water, that supports a property tax and a small wealth tax, that has a liberal policy on social issues etc.

Labour is closest at times on this but has mind-blocks when it comes to some of these issues. FG is also close, but some of the nuttier parties like SF and AAA don't seem to understand anything about social democracy and favour a communist type society and want to promise the earth to get us there.

19-03-2015 06:06PM

andrew wrote: »

Maybe it's due to Hysteresis? There might still be a large number of people who worked the construction sector who are now long term unemployed, the number of people employed in that sector during the boom was stupidly big.

You're correct, and the hysteresis effect has always been a strong feature of the Irish labour market. I don't intend to attribute everything to inversion. But when you have an "Irish" firm being run out a basement on FitzWilliam Sq., generating $2.6 billion annual sales, on a "skeleton staff", we need to question the reliability of the Irish GNP figures.

It's difficult to quantify how much of the mismatch between national income and jobs recovery is due to the hsyteresis effect, and how much is due to redomiciled institutions. But some, including the ESRI, have made some attempt. We can be fairly clear, through analysing the retained earnings, that these mergers and acquisitions which have become so popular post-crash, are having a noticeable impact on our GNP, without all of the labour market benefits.

FitzGerald J (2013) The Effect of Redomiciled Plcs on GNP and the Irish Balance of Payments. Quarterly Economic Commentary – Spring 2013

I probably should have mentioned the hysteresis effect specifically, given its importance in Ireland, and by omission I certainly do not attempt to disregard it.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-03-2015 10:40PM

From bankrupt basket case to practically risk free

The 2 year yield on Irish bonds is surreal

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/ireland-2-year-bond-yield

andrew · 19-03-2015 10:48PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From bankrupt basket case to practically risk free

The 2 year yield on Irish bonds is surreal

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/ireland-2-year-bond-yield

:eek:

WE'RE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS PEOPLE.

But seriously, we're through the looking glass. Crazy. That chart is the stuff of future textbooks. Or future episodes of reeling in the years at the very least.

Phoebas · 19-03-2015 11:29PM

Dammit! Why didn't I buy Irish debt at 14%.

Good loser · 20-03-2015 01:31AM

Phoebas wrote: »

Dammit! Why didn't I buy Irish debt at 14%.

I advised a guy (with money) to do it the night it happened. He didn't. Nor did I.

Villa05 · 20-03-2015 07:16AM

If rates varied between 0 and 5% Ireland annual interest bill would vary between 0 and 12 billion euro. Unfortunately we have significant debt fixed at 5 and 6% for periods up to 30 years according to Peter Browne on the radio this morning

Managing the debt efficiently is nearly more effective than 3 severe austerity budgets.
Mario dragi has been more effective at bringing Ireland under control than Mario noonan.
Labour were not too far off the mark when they said Labours way over Frankfurts way. Who would have thought 4 years ago that Angela Merkel would allow this to happen

frankbrett · 20-03-2015 11:34AM

Villa05 wrote: »

If rates varied between 0 and 5% Ireland annual interest bill would vary between 0 and 12 billion euro. Unfortunately we have significant debt fixed at 5 and 6% for periods up to 30 years according to Peter Browne on the radio this morning

Managing the debt efficiently is nearly more effective than 3 severe austerity budgets.
Mario dragi has been more effective at bringing Ireland under control than Mario noonan.
Labour were not too far off the mark when they said Labours way over Frankfurts way. Who would have thought 4 years ago that Angela Merkel would allow this to happen

None of the high coupon (>5%) bonds have a maturity greater than 10 years. Hopefully the low rate environment will continue in the medium term and we can refinance at low rates- rates in 2019/20 being of particular importance

Rightwing · 20-03-2015 11:49AM

I find this negative interest rate stuff worrying.

Quin_Dub · 20-03-2015 11:54AM

Rightwing wrote: »

I find this negative interest rate stuff worrying.

It's happening because of the charges being levied on short term funds by banks across the Euro zone..

It's actually cheaper for people to give us the money for marginal negative rates then it is for them to have it on deposit...

Not sure the negative rates on deposits are necessarily having the desired effect of putting more money into live play , but we can benefit whilst it's there

draiochtanois · 20-03-2015 11:57AM

This post has been deleted.

Rightwing · 20-03-2015 12:06PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's happening because of the charges being levied on short term funds by banks across the Euro zone..

It's actually cheaper for people to give us the money for marginal negative rates then it is for them to have it on deposit...

Not sure the negative rates on deposits are necessarily having the desired effect of putting more money into live play , but we can benefit whilst it's there

There are underlying reasons for it. And worrying ones at that.

Geuze · 20-03-2015 12:42PM

Godge wrote: »

I am a social democrat by nature and would vote for a party that ensures everyone pays some income tax, that the income tax system is progressive, that provides supports to those who need them but gradually removes those supports if they refuse to engage in getting back to work, that brings in usage charges (and there is a long list of these in other countries) for public services not just water, that supports a property tax and a small wealth tax,

We would do well if we followed these simple, sensible ideas.

FreudianSlippers · 20-03-2015 02:58PM

Rightwing wrote: »

There are underlying reasons for it. And worrying ones at that.

There are certainly questions to be asked about the underlying reasons, but equally that underlying reason could be the ongoing uncertainty in Greece vis-a-vis the potential for short-term economic growth.

21-03-2015 11:43PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

There are certainly questions to be asked about the underlying reasons, but equally that underlying reason could be the ongoing uncertainty in Greece vis-a-vis the potential for short-term economic growth.

This has nothing to do with the Greeks. It has been pointed out, many times, that private-sector investors have no significant exposure to Greece. Greece could fall off the earth's visage tomorrow, and she wouldn't be missed except by classical anthropologists, poets, and by a loud band of hellenophobics on boards.ie who perhaps have had a bad experience on a Corfu sun-holiday.

The negative yields on some eurozone debt, which is not a new phenomenon , is due to forward guidance from the ECB on low interest rates & QE. Interest rates move inversely against bond prices, watson, and QE is a guarantee of an appetite for bonds. So the yield curve gets inverted, then recovers, flattens off.

It's not a big deal. It's a short-term reaction before savings structures change, which is the whole, foolish idea behind QE

Rightwing · 23-03-2015 09:32PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

This has nothing to do with the Greeks. It has been pointed out, many times, that private-sector investors have no significant exposure to Greece. Greece could fall off the earth's visage tomorrow, and she wouldn't be missed except by classical anthropologists, poets, and by a loud band of hellenophobics on boards.ie who perhaps have had a bad experience on a Corfu sun-holiday.

The negative yields on some eurozone debt, which is not a new phenomenon , is due to forward guidance from the ECB on low interest rates & QE. Interest rates move inversely against bond prices, watson, and QE is a guarantee of an appetite for bonds. So the yield curve gets inverted, then recovers, flattens off.

It's not a big deal. It's a short-term reaction before savings structures change, which is the whole, foolish idea behind QE

I agree it's nothing to do with the Greeks, but no one knows for sure if Greece defaults what will happen. I would expect to see a lot of volatility.

I would think a prolonged period of stagnation is imminent.

24-03-2015 08:41AM

Rightwing wrote: »

I agree it's nothing to do with the Greeks, but no one knows for sure if Greece defaults what will happen.

We have a very fair idea, since they've already done so, and this time the private sector would not take a significant hit. Anyway, probably off-topic.

Saipanne · 25-03-2015 10:15AM

Growth rates of circa 4% are expected in the coming years, according to the ESRI.

High fives all round, guys. Great job.

Sheldons Brain · 25-03-2015 10:56AM

Saipanne wrote: »

Growth rates of circa 4% are expected in the coming years, according to the ESRI.

High fives all round, guys. Great job.

sticker,220x200-pad,220x200,ffffff.u1.png

One wonders if the politicos will note the advice given by the ESRI not to over egg the cake with tax cuts, but rather to adopt a steady as she goes policy. They won't be helped by incessant whining about people being overtaxed when in fact the overall situation is about right, although some of the details could be tweaked.

BoJack Horseman · 25-03-2015 11:27AM

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

One wonders if the politicos will note the advice given by the ESRI not to over egg the cake with tax cuts, but rather to adopt a steady as she goes policy. They won't be helped by incessant whining about people being overtaxed when in fact the overall situation is about right, although some of the details could be tweaked.

The people have been promised infinite spending & reduced taxation by the opposition for 4 years & the gov presumably want to be reelected.

Over egg the pudding?

An absolute certainty.

25-03-2015 11:49AM

Saipanne wrote: »

Let the good times roll!

Ho!

Let there be many fist-bumps in dole queues;
may great gangling lines of jobless men,
a labour chain, a wall of poverty,
grind less grimly.

May emigrants pass through Terminal Two
with four-per-cent extra enthusiasm.

--An Irish Prayer

Saipanne · 25-03-2015 11:56AM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Ho!

Let there be many fist-bumps in dole queues;
may great gangling lines of jobless men,
a labour chain, a wall of poverty,
grind less grimly.

May emigrants pass through Terminal Two
with four-per-cent extra enthusiasm.

--An Irish Prayer

That's the spirit!

Godge · 25-03-2015 01:36PM

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0325/689522-esri-economy/

"The ESRI says the strong growth in output, employment and spending will see a rapid improvement in the Government finances, with the deficit falling to 2.3% this year and just 0.3% next year from 3.7% last year."

Hard to believe, given where we were a few short years ago.

ardmacha · 25-03-2015 05:16PM

Godge wrote: »

Hard to believe, given where we were a few short years ago.

Indeed, and the IMF are joining the chorus, they think the Irish economy is firing on all cylinders.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-economy-is-firing-on-all-cylinders-imf-report-31094377.html

Saipanne · 25-03-2015 06:28PM

ardmacha wrote: »

Indeed, and the IMF are joining the chorus, they think the Irish economy is firing on all cylinders.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-economy-is-firing-on-all-cylinders-imf-report-31094377.html

I think I'll vote FG and FF, in the next election!

#winning

Good economic news thread

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