Good economic news thread

Godge

Now that we are at the very least bumping along the bottom rather than falling into a chasm where the economy is concerned, we should probably have a thread that discusses some of the relatively good economic news that appears and whether it represents a trend upwards or a blip in the bumping.

Today we had some Q1 results. First up is the Exchequer Returns:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0402/606262-exchequer-returns-march/

for the news item

http://www.finance.gov.ie/news-centre/press-releases/end-march-exchequer-returns

for the actual figures.

Quite good news. Tax is higher than last year and higher than expected. Spending is lower than last year and lower than expected. Taken together that means the budget deficit is lower, down from €3.7 bn to €2.4 bn. We are not out of the woods yet but the outlook is positive.

One of the reasons for the improved performance is that less people are on the dole:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0402/606175-live-register-figures-fall-again-in-march/

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregistermarch2014/#.UzwylPldW1c


The annual decrease is nearly 34,000 or 8%, the real question is are they taking up jobs? Well, as income tax is up, this may well be the case.


Property prices appear to be on the way up as well,

https://www.daft.ie/report/

but whether this is good or bad news remains to be seen.

All in all, those of us who predicted in the second half of last year that green shoots were appearing and things were about to get better may well be right. Still too early to be definitive about that as the economy is still vulnerable to external shocks and to slack domestic demand.

ardmacha

The annual decrease is nearly 34,000 or 8%, the real question is are they taking up jobs? Well, as income tax is up, this may well be the case.

This is a double benefit for the public finances, less dole and more tax.
There were some figures about long term unemployed that were less encouraging.

AlmightyCushion

ardmacha wrote: »

This is a double benefit for the public finances, less dole and more tax.
There were some figures about long term unemployed that were less encouraging.

Triple benefit if you count the extra tax generated from their increase in disposable income whether that be through VAT/excise duty/DIRT etc.

Villa05

While a job is great, I heard nonan on the radio saying that the new jobs are low paid (difference between income tax and prsi receipts)

This points to rising house prices and rents being unsustainable.

Lower house prices will be positive for the economy

Good loser

Heard of five people turning up for a new job a few weeks ago. Only one came back after dinner!

realitykeeper

The growth in the economy is as a result of the borrowed billions trickling down through society. When it has finish trickling down, the economy will fall back into the abyss, the only difference will be the extra billions the country will owe.

Head The Wall

2.3 billion deficit per quarter still equals 9.2 billion for the year roughly.

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

everdead.ie

Head The Wall wrote: »

2.3 billion deficit per quarter still equals 9.2 billion for the year roughly.

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

The last quarter of the year is normally in profit I think Self employed tax returns in October than Christmas spending in December.

Possibly not actually the figures I have found were.

11.5b deficit for 2013

with 7.3b of that up until August which would leave the final quater deficit at 4.2b.

ardmacha

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

And for the two departments who did not beat their spending targets, presumably in this case the target was too high?

sarumite

ardmacha wrote: »

And for the two departments who did not beat their spending targets, presumably in this case the target was too high?

I suppose that depends on which of the other two possible outcomes occurred for each of the two departments.

I would say that I would prefer to look at several years of data rather than a single year. If a department is constantly overspending, then either its budget is too low or its financial planning is poor ( or a bit from column A and bit from column . If it overspends due to a once off payment in a single year, then its probable that that neither a budget nor financial planning problem exists.

Godge

realitykeeper wrote: »

The growth in the economy is as a result of the borrowed billions trickling down through society. When it has finish trickling down, the economy will fall back into the abyss, the only difference will be the extra billions the country will owe.

Did you read the links - the budget deficit is coming down. Borrowing is slowing down but unemployment is still coming down. Let's keep a realistic perspective on this.

Head The Wall wrote: »

2.3 billion deficit per quarter still equals 9.2 billion for the year roughly.

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

As others have pointed out there isn't a linear relationship between quarterly deficits and annual deficits.

As for spending there is only one issue of concern - current spending on Health (€55m over budget), haven't we heard this one before.

realitykeeper

Godge wrote: »

Did you read the links - the budget deficit is coming down. Borrowing is slowing down but unemployment is still coming down. Let's keep a realistic perspective on this.

Large or small, a deficit is still a deficit and every year the country runs a deficit the enormous debt grows even bigger.

Unemployment is coming down because the internal economy has been stimulated with borrowed money. In others words people are buying and selling to each other with the money the country borrowed. Unfortunately, the money still has to be repaid with interest to the foreign entities from which it has been borrowed. Therefore the country will revert to the economic abyss of 2008 but this time it will have even more debt to pay off.

ardmacha

realitykeeper wrote: »

Large or small, a deficit is still a deficit and every year the country runs a deficit the enormous debt grows even bigger.

Unemployment is coming down because the internal economy has been stimulated with borrowed money. In others words people are buying and selling to each other with the money the country borrowed. Unfortunately, the money still has to be repaid with interest to the foreign entities from which it has been borrowed. Therefore the country will revert to the economic abyss of 2008 but this time it will have even more debt to pay off.

This is simplistic. The government was borrowing more last year and unemployment was also higher, so any change in unemployment is not caused by borrowing but by other positive forces in the economy (although perhaps supported by ECB measures elsewhere). The money does have to be repaid, but at the lowest interest rates in recent history.

It is modest good news, but good none the less and the Central Bank has a similar opinion

Th biggest threat to Ireland's modest progress is the state of the Eurozone generally.

realitykeeper

ardmacha wrote: »

This is simplistic. The government was borrowing more last year and unemployment was also higher, so any change in unemployment is not caused by borrowing but by other positive forces in the economy

It is modest good news, but good none the less and the Central Bank has a similar opinion

Regarding your first point I would say that economies being big cumbersome things take time to respond to stimulus - so that is the explanation, it has nothing to do with "other forces".

I had to laugh at your second point. The central banks across the entire developed world are trying to "talk up" their economies. That is a sure sign of looming catastrophe. I understand your intentions are good but I feel a moral duty to tell people that the policy of stimulus was never going to work. It will end very badly.

SupaNova2

realitykeeper wrote: »

I understand your intentions are good but I feel a moral duty to tell people that the policy of stimulus was never going to work. It will end very badly.

It depends what is meant by working. It can be seen as working, if working means kicking the can.

ILikeBananas

realitykeeper wrote: »

The growth in the economy is as a result of the borrowed billions trickling down through society. When it has finish trickling down, the economy will fall back into the abyss, the only difference will be the extra billions the country will owe.

I think you're missing the point of the thread. I don't think the OP was issuing a challenge and needed someone to come in and prove them wrong. They're just trying to create a little bit of sunshine in what can otherwise be a very negative sub-forum.

Head The Wall

Trying being the operative word and seems to be failing as well. I left Ireland in 2011 by choice (I had a job) and don't plan on going back anytime soon.

Place is still in the gutter and whee i see the likes of that working couple getting a big write down and keeping the banks house it makes me even happier that I am not funding the system with my taxes.

Godge

Head The Wall wrote: »

Trying being the operative word and seems to be failing as well. I left Ireland in 2011 by choice (I had a job) and don't plan on going back anytime soon.

Place is still in the gutter and whee i see the likes of that working couple getting a big write down and keeping the banks house it makes me even happier that I am not funding the system with my taxes.

More news.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0409/607779-unemployment/


While unemployment went up in the OECD overall, it fell significantly in Ireland as we have seen already in this thread. This means Ireland is performing well compared to the rest of the OECD.

On the other point, the news isn't so good for many of the rest of those with distressed mortgages.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0409/607741-finance-committee/

2,000 - 4,000 PTSB customers face repossession. While that may be necessary from an economic point of view, it is still very distressing for the individuals involved.

Sheldons Brain

ESRI get into the good mood music, let's hope their record is better than usual.

---

In its latest quarterly economic commentary, the ESRI said it expected output and employment growth this year and next to be at least as strong as 2013.

The ESRI concentrates instead on GNP, which it said will grow by 3.5% this year, and 3.7% next year, after a 3.3% rise last year.

This will be driven by an annual increase of 50,000 in the numbers in work and a 10% rise in investment.

Kermit.de.frog

A lot of positive news.


Don't know about anyone else but I can sense things are getting better overall even before looking at statistics. Hope it continues.

Sierra Oscar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Don't know about anyone else but I can sense things are getting better overall even before looking at statistics. Hope it continues.

Yep, I think there is a feeling of recovery in Dublin but it is fragile elsewhere to say the least. The biggest danger is that we will have a two speed economy in Ireland, the Dublin economy and then the rest of Ireland. Same thing has happened in England with London / South East as compared to everywhere else.

The housing crisis in Dublin would want to be sorted fairly lively though.

where_am_i

Godge wrote: »

More news.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0409/607779-unemployment/


While unemployment went up in the OECD overall, it fell significantly in Ireland as we have seen already in this thread. This means Ireland is performing well compared to the rest of the OECD.

On the other point, the news isn't so good for many of the rest of those with distressed mortgages.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0409/607741-finance-committee/

2,000 - 4,000 PTSB customers face repossession. While that may be necessary from an economic point of view, it is still very distressing for the individuals involved.

their are an incredibly low number of reposessions in this country compared to the likes of the uk , up to now it was politically difficult for banks to be seen evicting people , that will have to change however

Godge

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

ESRI get into the good mood music, let's hope their record is better than usual.

---

In its latest quarterly economic commentary, the ESRI said it expected output and employment growth this year and next to be at least as strong as 2013.

The ESRI concentrates instead on GNP, which it said will grow by 3.5% this year, and 3.7% next year, after a 3.3% rise last year.

This will be driven by an annual increase of 50,000 in the numbers in work and a 10% rise in investment.

GNP growth is being driven by the domestic economy and exports. The recovery is hidden in the GDP figures because of the patent cliff effect.

rightwingdub

where_am_i wrote: »

their are an incredibly low number of reposessions in this country compared to the likes of the uk , up to now it was politically difficult for banks to be seen evicting people , that will have to change however

I read a quote in the Irish Indo from a few days ago stating that there was only 700 repos in Ireland between the beginning of 2010 up till the end of 2013.

People who are more than 720 days in arrears need to be evicted regardless of whether the properties are buy to let or family homes. I'm fed up of the emotional sentiment that is attached towards repos in this country, It's 2014 not the 19th century.

comongethappy

200+ redundancies at Certus (Formerly BOSI) announced today.

rightwingdub

comongethappy wrote: »

200+ redundancies at Certus (Formerly BOSI) announced today.

Ouch have you got a link, a mate of mine works in Certus.

comongethappy

rightwingdub wrote: »

Ouch have you got a link, a mate of mine works in Certus.

It will probably be in the media on Monday.

I'm gutted, my dept is unaffected, I wouldn't have minded taking some monies & moving on.

rightwingdub

comongethappy wrote: »

It will probably be in the media on Monday.

I'm gutted, my dept is unaffected, I wouldn't have minded taking some monies & moving on.

My mate is a Credit Analyst, Is that department effected?

comongethappy

rightwingdub wrote: »

My mate is a Credit Analyst, Is that department effected?

Quite possibly.

Obviously teams will retain a few staff, but large areas are being let go.

Fingers crossed for everyone the redundancy package is as good as last time.

rightwingdub

comongethappy wrote: »

Quite possibly.

Obviously teams will retain a few staff, but large areas are being let go.

Are the redundancies voluntary or compulsory?

How many people are currently working in Certus?

comongethappy

rightwingdub wrote: »

Are the redundancies voluntary or compulsory?

How many people are currently working in Certus?

There are still over 800 staff all told.
There are still offices in cork, sligo, Waterford that will also lose out

It will be voluntary at first..... But if not enough people apply for VR, then the remainder will be compulsory.