Good economic news thread

draiochtanois · 06-03-2015 10:59AM

This post has been deleted.

Rightwing · 06-03-2015 11:20AM

More good news, just shows how a region's fortunes can be turned around with some ministers in it.

US fund administrator Northern Trust is to create 300 new jobs in Limerick over the next three years. The company, which has had a presence here since 1989, said it expects to employ 1,000 people in the city by the end of 2017

Geuze · 06-03-2015 12:10PM

hfallada wrote: »

Low income earners have to contribute to the running of the country. I know VAT is regressive and an unfair burden on the working classes etc etc. But when you can earn up to €12,000 a not pay a single cent in PRSI(your employer pays some), no income tax and no USC. You cant moan about taxing the rich more.The rich carry the country basically.

I would love to see the tax exemptions from OAPs removed. Like their exemption on DIRT on deposits is a joke(why should a student with no income have to pay DIRT?). Also they the tax credit for being an OAP is totally unfair. Tax should be based on your ability to pay. When more OAPs have been sheltered from the recession, their pensions were pretty much untouched from the global crisis (due to pensions switching to low risk investments close to retirement). They also generally dont have mortgages and dependants like children. But yet they pay less than family does. There is no logic, other than buying the grey vote

Yes, here's an anecdotal example:

Retired couple, incomes = 49k approx

Two med cards
Two travel passes
Free TV licence
35pm off elec bill = 420 pa

Direct taxes under 10% - very low effective tax rate, much lower than other countries.

Their unemployed child, with NIL income, retraining at UCD, pays 50 pw for buses to college.

They get on the same bus for free.

Geuze · 06-03-2015 12:11PM

hfallada wrote: »

Im talking about how OAPs are exempt from DIRT for no good reason. Up until recently you still had to pay DIRT on savings for a house deposit. The Government needs to remove all the tax give aways to OAPs. But whether a Government will do it due to the potential backlash is unlikely.

Note that only DIRT exempt if income under 18k / 36k.

frankbrett · 06-03-2015 01:54PM

Good news for all as the IBRC liquidation is set to return €1.1bn to the exchequer.

Good news for those who want to see the economy succeed and also good news for the anti-everything crowd as it looks like some bondholders will also get paid.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/ibrc-liquidation-may-lead-to-paying-unsecured-creditors-1.2128261

FreudianSlippers · 06-03-2015 02:56PM

frankbrett wrote: »

Good news for all as the IBRC liquidation is set to return €1.1bn to the exchequer.

Good news for those who want to see the economy succeed and also good news for the anti-everything crowd as it looks like some bondholders will also get paid.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/ibrc-liquidation-may-lead-to-paying-unsecured-creditors-1.2128261

We're burning bondholders (by ensuring they can afford that sweet sweet holiday home)

#SPF45

nice_guy80 · 06-03-2015 05:08PM

applications for 219 homes repossessed today in Limerick

this should have been happening a few years ago
people with mortgages they could never afford

Sand · 10-03-2015 10:25PM

Good news, France has been granted an extension to its deadline to comply with the EU regulations to bring its fiscal deficit below 3%.

France has missed every deadline since 2009 and been granted an extension every single time by the European Commission. I think this gives great hope that when Ireland needs an extension, the EC will equally look the other way and give us an extension too. Because the EU rules aren't just for the little and the weak.

Right?

12-03-2015 05:17PM

Economy doing well

Interestingly, I recall a certain triple A politician telling us that these figures were irrelevant for 'the man in the street' as there was no increase in domestic demand....

Net exports grew by 10.5%, while domestic demand - a key driver of jobs growth - grew by 3.5%.

ardmacha · 12-03-2015 06:06PM

It seems that we are leaving the Slough of Despond, and may yet gain the place of deliverance. Some here prefer Despond, I suspect, as long as others are also mired there.

AlmightyCushion · 12-03-2015 09:50PM

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0312/686546-ntma/

The 30 year bond sold today was at a rate of 1.3%. Only a month ago we sold a 30 year bond at just over 2%. That's some drop.

13-03-2015 07:08PM

ardmacha wrote: »

It seems that we are leaving the Slough of Despond, and may yet gain the place of deliverance. Some here prefer Despond, I suspect, as long as others are also mired there.

Yes it's wonderful news, but even though this is a 'good economic news thread' it would be foolish not to qualify that graph with the slower pace of employment, and by mentioning contract manufacturing, which is likely to be artificially inflating GDP

Sheldons Brain · 13-03-2015 09:35PM

Yes it's wonderful news, but even though this is a 'good economic news thread' it would be foolish not to qualify that graph with the slower pace of employment, and by mentioning contract manufacturing, which is likely to be artificially inflating GDP

The previous chart was GNP, was it not? In any case unemployment lags, people are laid off immediately things begin to slip, not hired again at the first sight of better times. Now construction is ramping up, which reduces unemployment and the next budget will be expansionary, increasing retail employment and the like.

In any case we've been here before, it is the mid 90s, even Noel Gallagher was back on the TV. +20 years, unemployment will fall, Galway will win the football all Ireland, times will be good and then we'll lose the run of ourselves again in 8 years or so.

Villa05 · 13-03-2015 11:07PM

Sheldons Brain wrote:

In any case unemployment lags, people are laid off immediately things begin to slip, not hired again at the first sight of better times.

I believe this did not happen in Ireland. Businesses cut employment to the bare minimum and when demand picked up people were hired almost immediately, initially on 0 hours contracts, part time and eventually full time as demand began to normalise

Sheldons Brain · 16-03-2015 04:20PM

The Indo declares that we are back
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-is-on-course-to-reach-precrisis-peak-31063038.html

Kermit.de.frog · 16-03-2015 04:24PM

I notice Finland has negative growth figures and Denmark ain't doin great. I thought we were suppose to be in awe of the Scandinavian economic model?

16-03-2015 04:44PM

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

The previous chart was GNP, was it not?

OK lets do GNP then.

GDP, GNP ... in this case, it's all much of a muchness ... 'did you ever see/ a drawing of a muchness?'

The extent to which employment lags GNP growth is debatable. I don't see any reason why Irish employment should be taking so long to recover when GNP has recovered so well compared to the period before the crash.

Unless ... unless ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/crackdown-fails-to-halt-flow-of-irish-tax-inversion-deals-1.2141404

serfboard · 16-03-2015 05:42PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I don't see any reason why Irish employment should be taking so long to recover when GNP has recovered so well compared to the period before the crash.

I don't think that's a great surprise - over 25% (open to correction on the exact figure) of pre-crash male employment was in the labour-intensive construction sector. This is not going to be repeated so I wouldn't expect employment levels be at the same for many years.

16-03-2015 06:18PM

serfboard wrote: »

I don't think that's a great surprise - over 25% (open to correction on the exact figure) of pre-crash male employment was in the labour-intensive construction sector. This is not going to be repeated so I wouldn't expect employment levels be at the same for many years.

The point is that GNP is back at pre-crisis levels, unemployment is way off.

Obviously in a recovery, this mismatch can be partially apportioned to the lagging effect from welfare traps, corporate reticence, and a skills shortage. But the mismatch looks more dramatic than that., especially in recent quarters.

This is probably a result of tax inversions and related schemes, of which more here

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1025998.shtml

Traditionally GNP, which excludes the profits of most of the foreign-owned sector, has provided a better measure of economic activity in Ireland. However, this has been affected in recent years by the profit flows of redomiciled plcs. Adjusting GNP to take account of these flows finds the contraction in the Irish economy was much deeper in 2009, the Irish economy actually contracted in 2010, rather than showing moderate GNP growth, and was marginally weaker in 2011, while GNP growth in 2012 was approximately 1 percentage point lower than official estimates.

If the pattern persists then adjusted GNP growth will be lower than forecast and any boost to growth from a fall in the balance of payments surplus will be smaller than had been previously anticipated.

John FitzGerald says in his paper [pdf]: "The change in the undistributed profits as a share of GNP is a measure of the extent to which the measurement of GNP has been inflated by the activity of these firms over the last five years, without a compensating reduction affecting GNP through increased factor outflows.

There is also a corresponding implied adjustment needed in the official current account figures, as shown in Table 2. This would imply that, instead of having a current account surplus of around 6.1% of GNP in 2012, the underlying surplus was closer to 0.6% of GNP."

Sheldons Brain · 16-03-2015 06:30PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The extent to which employment lags GNP growth is debatable. I don't see any reason why Irish employment should be taking so long to recover when GNP has recovered so well compared to the period before the crash.

Employment inevitably lags, and this can be sign of responsible behaviour as people getting jobs etc are not going out splurging on borrowed money but are settling their debts etc before doing the big spending.

Unless ... unless ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/crackdown-fails-to-halt-flow-of-irish-tax-inversion-deals-1.2141404

How does this affect GNP?

16-03-2015 06:34PM

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

How does this affect GNP?

Because 'Oirish' firms have spent billions acquiring US miltinationals, whose financials now appear on the Irish accounts as Irish income, purely for tax purposes.

Hence the old system of suing GNP as a more reliable indicator than GDP is not reliable because of these new practices.

Kermit.de.frog · 18-03-2015 12:02AM

The Irish Times tomorrow has a story saying an increasing number of economists and investors are saying the biggest threat to Ireland is no longer the debt, deficit or mortgage arrears - it's Sinn Féin.

ardmacha · 18-03-2015 12:16AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Irish Times tomorrow has a story saying an increasing number of economists and investors are saying the biggest threat to Ireland is no longer the debt, deficit or mortgage arrears - it's Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin are only a threat if the voters allow them be so. People have limited control over the ECB etc but they can elect the government.

Geuze · 18-03-2015 12:50AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Irish Times tomorrow has a story saying an increasing number of economists and investors are saying the biggest threat to Ireland is no longer the debt, deficit or mortgage arrears - it's Sinn Féin.

I'm not a fan of SF.

However, if a large amount of the pop want a socialist, higher tax party, then so be it.

What I don't agree with is talk like the following:

"If SF get in, they'd ruin the country"

as if the other parties haven't already ruined the country.

Kermit.de.frog · 18-03-2015 05:08AM

Geuze wrote: »

I'm not a fan of SF.

However, if a large amount of the pop want a socialist, higher tax party, then so be it.

What I don't agree with is talk like the following:

"If SF get in, they'd ruin the country"

as if the other parties haven't already ruined the country.

But they would intentionally ruin it through stupid policies.

That's the difference. FF and the PD's had a sound idea but implemented it wrong through lax regulation. They made a critical mistake.

Quin_Dub · 18-03-2015 07:39AM

Geuze wrote: »

I'm not a fan of SF.

However, if a large amount of the pop want a socialist, higher tax party, then so be it.

What I don't agree with is talk like the following:

"If SF get in, they'd ruin the country"

as if the other parties haven't already ruined the country.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But they would intentionally ruin it through stupid policies.

That's the difference. FF and the PD's had a sound idea but implemented it wrong through lax regulation. They made a critical mistake.

That's the critical difference..

Current Government are guilty of poor implementation of the right ideas/policies

An SF/Hard Left led government would be guilty of poor implementation of absolutely awful and wrong policies..

jank · 18-03-2015 08:29AM

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/rise-of-sinn-f%C3%A9in-represents-main-threat-to-growth-says-economist-1.2143204

The Irish economy has the capacity to continue to grow rapidly without overheating, according to the senior European economist with Goldman Sachs.
London-based Kevin Daly said political factors were now the main risk to Ireland’s economic future, citing the increased popularity of Sinn Féin, with policies similar to those of Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain.
Mr Daly said the bank no longer viewed mortgage arrears as representing the largest domestic risk to the economy.

What we need to is to keep the economy growing at 3-4% year on year, slow and steady. No stupid give away budgets to the unproductive sectors of the economy. Invest in Infrastructure, like roads, rail, water and telecom's. EVERYONE pays a bit of income tax, no matter how little you earn.

Issues around public transport, health and childcare should get a look in for possible investment.

Rightwing · 18-03-2015 11:12AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Irish Times tomorrow has a story saying an increasing number of economists and investors are saying the biggest threat to Ireland is no longer the debt, deficit or mortgage arrears - it's Sinn Féin.

That's complete rubbish.

serfboard · 18-03-2015 01:09PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FF and the PD's had a sound idea but implemented it wrong through lax regulation. They made a critical mistake.

Lax regulation was not a "mistake". Lax regulation was their "sound idea".

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Irish Times tomorrow has a story saying an increasing number of economists and investors are saying the biggest threat to Ireland is no longer the debt, deficit or mortgage arrears - it's Sinn Féin.

Is this the story you're referring to:

jank wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/rise-of-sinn-f%C3%A9in-represents-main-threat-to-growth-says-economist-1.2143204

Because if it is, there is no "increasing number" of economists saying anything. There is one economist, employed by that charming organisation Goldman Sachs, saying that. And he, of course, would have absolutely no vested interest in expressing that opinion. :rolleyes:

18-03-2015 06:15PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Irish Times tomorrow has a story saying an increasing number of economists and investors are saying the biggest threat to Ireland is no longer the debt, deficit or mortgage arrears - it's Sinn Féin.

Bit of a cheek. It was celebrity economists who did a serious amount of harm to this country, both pre and post-2008. Every one of them, to a man, either failed to adequately appreciate that a serious crash was coming, or went out and actively denied that any crash would come. And then on the remedies post-2008, they have been widely discredited (remember the claims that if we didn't get haircuts on sovereign debt, we would default? or how about the demand that we simply "stop paying" ELA? How was that for populism?)

They are still engaging in populist rhetoric on any talkshow that will let them on, although I do sense a growing level of media ambivalence towards them.

Political parties should be criticized on policy issues. Economics professionals should critique those policies individually, and then stay out of it. I don't see that they have a role here, whether they are supporting FG, FF, Labour or SF. They certainly haven't earned one.

Good economic news thread

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