Good economic news thread

Geniass

aliveandkicking wrote: »

. Maybe you preferred when the country was running a 12bn a year deficit?

Calm down, dear. It is good news, but not as good as the headline would lead you believe.

aliveandkicking

Geniass wrote: »

Calm down, dear. It is good news, but not as good as the headline would lead you believe.

Glass half empty.

Geniass

aliveandkicking wrote: »

Glass half empty.

I know you are, but what am I? :rolleyes:

Godge

Geniass wrote: »

Not so good when the 1.6 billion share sale is included.

Still an 800m improvement over last year plus whatever is saved in interest charges later this year by the early refinancing.

We will be well below 3% deficit this year if this continues to the end of the year. Could even make 2% if things go exceptionally well.

Geniass

Godge wrote: »

Still an 800m improvement over last year plus whatever is saved in interest charges later this year by the early refinancing.

We will be well below 3% deficit this year if this continues to the end of the year. Could even make 2% if things go exceptionally well.

It's fantastic and better than most of us could have hoped for.

Although, not so sure about being well below 3% - we should expect a give away generous budget.

aliveandkicking

Geniass wrote: »

It's fantastic and better than most of us could have hoped for.

That's more like it! A lot different to the "not so good" you said earlier.

Geniass

aliveandkicking wrote: »

That's more like it! A lot different to the "not so good" you said earlier.

I'm on message now, is that it?:P

aliveandkicking

Geniass wrote: »

I'm on message now, is that it?:P

No not at all. It just annoys me when I see people dismiss any good news while trying amplify the negatives. There seems to be a large cohort of people who just refuse to accept that there are good things happening to the economy at the minute.

Geniass

aliveandkicking wrote: »

No not at all. It just annoys me when I see people dismiss any good news while trying amplify the negatives. There seems to be a large cohort of people who just refuse to accept that there are good things happening to the economy at the minute.

You're preaching to the converted. There's lots of positive news, but not critically analysing the information is not good either. I seem to recall that's what caused the problem in the first place.

antoobrien

Geniass wrote: »

It's fantastic and better than most of us could have hoped for.

Although, not so sure about being well below 3% - we should expect a give away generous budget.

I wouldn't pay too much heed to a single exceptional item like that, there's often at least one in a year. Where'd I'd be really concerned is if there were several payments like that being used to make up a shortfall.

That said, with the shareholding in the banks we can expect some more payments like that (the figure could be higher or lower) over the next few years.

frankbrett

antoobrien wrote: »

I wouldn't pay too much heed to a single exceptional item like that, there's often at least one in a year. Where'd I'd be really concerned is if there were several payments like that being used to make up a shortfall.

That said, with the shareholding in the banks we can expect some more payments like that (the figure could be higher or lower) over the next few years.

Indeed, there is a much larger holding in AIB which will be sold off in the coming years. Hopefully the proceeds will be used wisely. I believe Noonan was looking at a partial sale in early 2015 so the incoming government will start the year in decent Fiscal shape

antoobrien

frankbrett wrote: »

Indeed, there is a much larger holding in AIB which will be sold off in the coming years. Hopefully the proceeds will be used wisely. I believe Noonan was looking at a partial sale in early 2015 so the incoming government will start the year in decent Fiscal shape

Yeah, but it looks (for now) like we probably won't get as much out of AIB as we got from BOI.

IMO the only appropriate use for money coming from the banks (or NAMA) should be to pay back long term borrowing e.g. the approx 90bn in bonds due in the next ten years or the Troika funding.

JustTheOne

And to think there is a good sized people who think we would be better off with Sinn Fein and Paul Murphy running the country.

There is no room for negative people who couldn't be arsed in contributing to the future of Ireland.

Fair play to the government and the people who have put us on a good stable path after what looked like an impending disaster.

Saipanne

antoobrien wrote: »

Yeah, but it looks (for now) like we probably won't get as much out of AIB as we got from BOI.

Why? Facts, please. Not opinion.

househero

JustTheOne wrote: »

Fair play to the government and the people who have put us on a good stable path after what looked like an impending disaster.

Hmm, you do realise it was a manufactured disaster don't you?

We were forced to take on private debt by a now dead finance minister.

If we didn't take in the banks debt our debt to GDP ratio would have remainder FAR below the EU average and even the new EU rules on gov debt.

We were never in as much trouble as it appeared. Our English owned newspapers liked to tell us differently though.

JustTheOne

househero wrote: »

Hmm, you do realise it was a manufactured disaster don't you?

We were forced to take on private debt by a now dead finance minister.

If we didn't take in the banks debt our debt to GDP ratio would have remainder FAR below the EU average and even the new EU rules on gov debt.

We were never in as much trouble as it appeared. Our English owned newspapers liked to tell us differently though.

Well that didn't take long.

Saipanne

househero wrote: »

Hmm, you do realise it was a manufactured disaster don't you?

We were forced to take on private debt by a now dead finance minister.

If we didn't take in the banks debt our debt to GDP ratio would have remainder FAR below the EU average and even the new EU rules on gov debt.

We were never in as much trouble as it appeared. Our English owned newspapers liked to tell us differently though.

Some fella in the pub told ya that, did he?

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

antoobrien

Saipanne wrote: »

Why? Facts, please. Not opinion.

The NTMA have consistently discounted the value of the AIB shares - far more than they did BOI - in the NPRF portfolio, so they don't expect to get back as much as they put in.

There is an expectation that there will be over 30,000 repossession cases over the next few years. Depending on how this is managed it could mean a stagnation or depression of house prices - almost half of AIBs loan book are Irish residential mortgages.

Bank of Ireland have both a more diverse portfolio and a higher (gross) asset value.

AIB have not paid cash when they were due to pay dividends on preference shares (BOI did), instead they issued more shares.

Investors will look at these kind of things and they'll look at what BOI cost as well.

Hey, I hope I'm wrong but that's the way I see it.

antoobrien

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Or it could be that he can't be seen to be interfering too much with the running of the banks for fear that he'll scare off potential investors.

meglome

I see the AAA have a facebook campaign on claiming that the only reason the unemployment rate is down is because everyone has emigrated.

I really hate those guys.

sozbox

meglome wrote: »

I see the AAA have a facebook campaign on claiming that the only reason the unemployment rate is down is because everyone has emigrated.

I really hate those guys.

Willfully ignoring the increase in income tax year on year. Idiots

meglome

sozbox wrote: »

Willfully ignoring the increase in income tax year on year. Idiots

People will buy it as there will be no counterpunch. It's why they use facebook as they can say pretty much what they want.

ardmacha

meglome wrote: »

I see the AAA have a facebook campaign on claiming that the only reason the unemployment rate is down is because everyone has emigrated.

I really hate those guys.

Clearly everyone has not emigrated, hence the increased traffic on the M50 and even Dublin Bus as well as the increased taxes etc mentioned above.

I think people can see this for themselves.

sozbox

meglome wrote: »

People will buy it as there will be no counterpunch. It's why they use facebook as they can say pretty much what they want.

True, just a shame there's people out there who complain about parties lying to them while lapping up lies from this crowd. I never understand people who don't want to inform themselves of the facts.
Thankfully the AAA polled 0.5% in the most recent poll!

Good loser

sozbox wrote: »

True, just a shame there's people out there who complain about parties lying to them while lapping up lies from this crowd. I never understand people who don't want to inform themselves of the facts.
Thankfully the AAA polled 0.5% in the most recent poll!

That's good (non) economic news!

JustTheOne

Good loser wrote: »

That's good (non) economic news!

Would that be around 150,000 people?

Bless them.

Greyian

JustTheOne wrote: »

Would that be around 150,000 people?

Bless them.

That would put our voting population at 30 million people, so no.

JustTheOne

Greyian wrote: »

That would put our voting population at 30 million people, so no.

Oops maths way off there, few too many Morgan's tonight:)

Greyian

JustTheOne wrote: »

Oops maths way off there, few too many Morgan's tonight:)

Drinking the same stuff myself.

Based on the most recent poll results, the AAA are basically the margin of error.