Cheltenham Day 2 - Wednesday

rocky911 wrote: »

Dont get me wrong, he is a serious pilot and has won me a lot of money before.. but Id be wary haha ya it is a tricky race to be fair. personally I am on Dell Arca..

Thanks again and good luck

Beast Of Burden
Don Poli
Taglietelle & Goodwood Mirage small ew
Duke Of Lucca
Moon Racer

pugw wrote: »

Is abre de vie out of the coral cup??

out alright, backed it also

I'm tempted to back the horse that beat him in france and who's making his
british debut...could be anything in fairness

AUX PTITS SOINS

Struggling to come up with any definite picks tomorrow so think it'll be small stakes for a lot of the races.

Do like Wait For Me in the bumper for Hobbs. Looked very impressive on his only run.

mailburner wrote: »

and the usual 2/3 losers in the bumper (wait for me/general principle)
wonder why ruby is riding bellshill in this over the more fancied ones?

Didn't he do the same when Briar Hill won at big odds? Might have to do with the fact Patrick and the rest are the ones who have been riding all the bumper horses all year.

1.30 Nichols Canyon 4/1
2.05 Don Poli 7/4
2.40 Daneking 16/1
3.20 Champagne fever 5/1
4.00 Any currency 6/1
4.40 Thunder Zone 16/1
5.15 General Principle 10/1

A €1 E/W on all plus a €0.10 E/W super heinz.

Was going so well yesterday till Annie hit the floor, hopefully nothing like that today.

1.30 Cheltenham

Windsor Park 5/1

Skybet are running are running a great promotion of money back if you come 2nd or 3rd in the Neptune which looks well worth taking up and although he's a bit shorter in the betting than I expected and although his form is probably the weakest of those towards the front of the market I think he's been campaigned to peak for this by Dermot Weld and I think he'll really appreciate the stiff 2m5f trip, quick ground and tempo of the race. Having shown progressive form in bumpers before winning his 4th start in that sphere, Windsor Park was then switched to the flat to twice win convincingly in the Autumn before embarking upon his novice hurdling career. Having run out a decent winner on his hurdling debut over 2m4f at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting, Windsor Park was stepped into Grade 2 Company on his next start towards the end of January where I thought he ran a bit flat in behind another of the market leaders that day in Outlander but it wasn't an awful effort and I thought he put in a really eye catching display on his last start. In the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, Windsor Park was held up towards the rear of the field in the 2m2f contest and he did make a few novicey errors in the contest. However, he did stay on eye catchingly into 2nd in a race that wasn't run to suit as he failed to reel in Nichols Canyon - who is currently vying for favouritism. Although he's got a bit of ground to make up with him on that run, I'm very confident he can turn the tables around as that rival got an uncontested lead and could dictate at his own pace which wouldn't have suited this 6 year old and I think Windsor Park will relish the quicker tempo of this contest. Moreover, I definitely think he'll improve for the step up in trip whilst I feel Windsor Park has been brought along patiently by Weld. There are dangers aplenty in this 10 runner contest but if Davy Russell can get him into a nice rhythm early on I'm confident he can come out on top in this.

2.05 Cheltenham

The Young Master 5/1

Favourite Don Poli is a very formidable adversary here and I certainly wouldn't put anybody off backing him as I think he'll be hard to beat but I've been really impressed with the progressive handicap form The Young Master has shown and I think he's got a great chance of landing this. Representing the same Mulholland/Geraghty combination that were successful with The Druids Nephew Yesterday, The Young Master has been a revelation since sent chasing this year and has run out an impressive winner on all 4 of his starts over the fences. Having sauntered to victory on his chasing debut, The Young Master ran out a good winner of an Amateur Riders Handicap over this C+D off a mark of 121 back in October before absolutely demolishing what looked a really competitive 18 runner handicap at Wincanton off a 9lb higher mark back in November. He has since been stripped of that win (quite ridiculously) as he wasn't eligible to run in the race and although connections were stripped of all their prize money the handicapper reacted by putting him up a massive 14lb to a mark off 144. That didn't stop him, however, as dispatched of a very decent crop of seasoned and battle hardened handicappers in fine style at Ascot in December despite jumping left at times and that race has a strong look about it with the runner up Houblon Des Obeaux, who had filled the same spot in the ultra competitive Hennessey prior to this, chasing home officially (on ratings) the best staying Novice of the last 15 years in Coneygree. Additionally, the 3rd home Le Reve ran out an impressive winner off the same mark on his next start before chasing home leading Grand National hope Rocky Creek off a 6lb higher mark and it was a really impressive performance by a novice having just his 4th run over the larger obstacles. Neil Mulholland has saved him since then and I've every confidence that he'll have him spot on for this. In addition to Don Poli, David Pipe's Kings Palace is towards the front of the market but I just don't like the horse that much (for all he's been impressive in small field Novice Chases thus far) whilst I feel the rest of the opposition lack the class of both The Young Master and Don Poli. With the excellent Barry Geraghty (on board for his last two wins) up top and Neil Mulholland clearly in excellent form having landed his first Cheltenham Festival winner yesterday I'm confident of a massive run from this unexposed and improving 6 year old and for all it will take a very big performance to beat Don Poli I'm confident that The Young Master can deliver and land the RSA Chase.

2.40 Cheltenham

Baradari 18/1

This 26 runner minefield is always a tricky puzzle to solve but I'm very, very sweet on the chances of Venetia Williams' 5 year old Baradari who I think has been absolutely crying out for a step up in trip and I think it'll be the making of him. A recruit from the flat in France, Baradari began his career for the Williams team when sent Juvenile hurdling in late 2013 and after a win and solid placed form I thought he ran an absolute cracker in last years Fred Winter to finish a 5L beaten 5th off a mark of 134 as he motored up the hill that day and shaped as if he was in need of further. He rounded off last year with a fall and a tame effort but returned this year with a fine 3rd behind a pair of well handicapped Nicky Henderson rivals off a mark of 134 at Sandown in November before putting in a below par effort in the Greatwood Hurdle just 15 days later that I'm just putting a line through as he clearly wasn't himself. Given a couple of months to recover, Baradari was finally stepped up in trip to an extended 19f at Ascot in January and he gained a richly deserved 2nd success over hurdles when landing the Grade 2 handicap hurdle in soft ground as he got up in the dying strides to win by a neck as he found loads for pressure. He really, really appreciated the step up in trip and needed every yard of it to score and I firmly believe that he'll absolutely relish the extra 1.5f and stiff uphill finish he'll encounter today and I absolutely think it'll be the making of him. The form of that race looks good with the 4th home Garde La Victoire winning a Listed Hurdle on his next start and the 5th Rayvin Black ran a blinder to finish 2nd the Imperial Cup on Saturday. I think a 6lb rise for that performance to a mark of 140 is very fair and still leaves Baradari on a very workable mark and he's got a lovely racing weight of 10-8. I'd be here all night talking about the plethora of dangers that exist in this contest and I might end up looking mental for being so confident about a horses chances in a race of this nature but I just cannot see how Baradari won't run an absolute monster. He's run well at the Festival before, is an improving sort and I firmly believe that the step up in trip will be the making of him and he's a tremendous each way bet at 18/1 in my eyes with 5 places paid. I expect regular jockey Aidan Coleman to settle Baradari towards the back of the pack before coming with a late rattle down the home stretch and hopefully the pair can come home in front and give Venetia Williams a second victory in this contest 10 years on from her first.

3.20 Cheltenham

Sire De Grugy 7/2

This race revolves around whether the Sprinter Sacre now is the same horse as the Sprinter Sacre of old and, for all I hope I am proven wrong, I firmly believe that that horse is unfortunately not here anymore. People can argue that he travelled well on the back of a long absence on his reappearance and connections can say that they're very happy with him but I was completely underwhelmed by that performance. There is absolutely no question in my mind that Nicky Henderson would have had his star fit enough to do himself justice on the back of such a long absence but he was running on empty in my eyes when Geraghty went to push the button. Additionally, he had to be rousted in to a number of his fences as opposed to attacking them like he used to and was found to have bled after the race and, for all the romantic in me would love to see what is arguably the greatest 2 mile chaser ever seen win this, I just can't see it happening. If you had told me 3 weeks ago that I'd strongly fancy defending champion Sire De Grugy to win this again I would have thought you were mad as I was very unimpressed with him on his reappearance from injury when he was definitely beaten before unseating but I was incredibly impressed with his performance 18 days ago when connections made a very brave call to run him in a handicap giving bucket loads of weight away to his rivals and although there's a worry that race was very recent I don't think he had much of a race and he looked right back to his best for me and the outstanding 2 miler last season looks by far the most likely winner to me. Dodging Bullets has won all the big races that Sire De Grugy won last year and is a huge player if he can maintain his form but he's never won beyond February in his career to date and his form always seems to peter off at the tail end of the season. I just couldn't have Champagne Fever at any price as he couldn't win a poor Arkle last year and looking at the rest of the field I just can't see any of them being good enough to win the premier 2 mile chase. If his excursions 18 days ago haven't taken too much out of him, I think Sire De Grugy will run out a convincing winner of this and for all I'd absolutely love for Sprinter Sacre to prove me wrong I just can't see it happening.

4.00 Cheltenham

Sire Collonges 15/2

Not even going to attempt to say I've much of a clue when it comes to the Cross Country Chase and any play I'll be having in this will be fairly small but Sire Collonges looks to have solid credentials in this sphere and I'd be hopeful of a big run. A C+D winner back in Decemeber 2013, he ran a fine race when 3rd to last years winner and Grand National 2nd Balthazar King on his last start in November and he actually finished a place in front of today's market leader Any Currency and now meets that rival on 7lb better terms so on that logic he looks overpriced. He represents the powerful Nicholls/Twiston-Davies combination and for all I'm not in the least bit confident as I can't conclusively work out the form he looks a decent each way bet at 15/2.

4.40 Cheltenham

Hostile Fire 9/1

Gordon Elliott had the winner of this in 2013 with Flaxen Flare and would have probably had the winner last year as well had Clarcam not fallen and I think he's done a terrific job to get Hostile Fire here with a lovely rating of just 131 and I just don't see how he can't not be better than that mark. Formerly trained by Ed De Giles on the flat where he reached a peak rating of 81, Hostile Fire joined the Elliott stable this winter and he ran out a fine 2nd on his hurdling debut when sent of a 25/1 chance at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. He filled that same position when comfortably held on his 2nd start over hurdles but ran out a fine winner on his final start when he seemed to appreciate the application of a first time tongue tie as he scored by 3L at Fairyhouse at the end of January. Racing quite keenly throughout, (a feature of his 3 starts over hurdles) Hostile Fire travelled powerfully throughout the race and scored pretty convincingly from Zafayan who has since gone on to finish 2nd to a Willie Mullins newcomer (3rd in the race that day has since bolted up). For all that probably wasn't the best contest, Hostile Fire did it impressively enough and I'm sure there will be lots of improvement in him. One massive advantage today that I think Hostile Fire will have is the return to a better surface (all 3 hurdle outings on soft/heavy going) as his best flat form came on good ground and I think that will certainly be very beneficial to this gelding. Additionally, the frantic pace that this contest will be run at will hopefully help him settle and Elliott will have him prepared very well for this and knows what it takes to win the race. Dangers aplenty exist and something else in the field might end up being better handicapped than Hostile Fire but at 9/1 and with 4 places on offer I think he looks a terrific each way bet.

5.15 Cheltenham

Moon Racer 9/1

Willie Mullins saddles 7 in this which shows you how open this contest is and, for all I'm not very confident, I've been very impressed by the two performances Moon Racer has put up when winning both starts to date and for all David Pipe's record in this is very poor he's the one that has my money. After springing a huge shock when providing 84 year old trainer Michael Ronayne his first winner on debut at Fairyhouse back in April last year (beat some good horses), Moon Racer was sold for £225,000 at the sales and was sent to the David Pipe yard where he proved that run was no fluke as he ran out an emphatic scorer of his 2nd start in a Cheltenham bumper back in October and those two runs are probably the 2 most visually impressive performances I've seen in this field. He's been saved for this and although this is a completely different ball game I think he'll certainly hold his own in this company. I don't think anyone could be overly confident in a field of this nature, I'm hopeful for a good run and I wouldn't put anyone off having a few quid each way.

The young master
Champagne fever
Vyta du roc

In a treble.

1.30 Parlour Games 11/2
2.05 Southfield Theatre 6/1
2.40 Activial 8/1
3.20 Dodging Bullets 9/2
4.00 Are ya right chieft 28/1
4.40 All Yours 10/1
5.15 Vigil 9/1