Cheltenham Festival 2015

Peintre Celebre · 07-03-2015 5:28pm

Wacker The Attacker wrote: »

possibly bu no runner no bet I'm presuming

Hope you didn't back it. Hills are ante post

jimjamcos · 07-03-2015 5:35pm

lemush wrote: »

Goes to Neptune

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Hope you didn't back it. Hills are ante post

Any big fancies yourself PC?

Peintre Celebre · 07-03-2015 5:47pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

Any big fancies yourself PC?

Grand Vision Kim Muir maybe my main one 20/1, my UTPT for the world is looking ok 20/1. Creepy in the novices Tuesday 33/1, Rajdhani for the Plate 20/1. I'd say that's all ill back what about yourself

jimjamcos · 07-03-2015 6:16pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Grand Vision Kim Muir maybe my main one 20/1, my UTPT for the world is looking ok 20/1. Creepy in the novices Tuesday 33/1, Rajdhani for the Plate 20/1. I'd say that's all ill back what about yourself

Have backed too many tbh. Having looked into his form and the Foxhunters, really, really like Rossom's big fancy Paint The Clouds in it. Have also backed Hidden Cyclone, Smashing, Djakadam and Ned Buntline at bigger prices. McManus horse has clearly been kept for the race and is fairly enough treated on last years running. The McCoy factor will make him very short at the off.

You think UTPT will improve for Cleave run? I was a bit disappointed with his finishing effort having travelled so well when clearly fancied.

Peintre Celebre · 07-03-2015 6:25pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

Have backed too many tbh. Having looked into his form and the Foxhunters, really, really like Rossom's big fancy Paint The Clouds in it. Have also backed Hidden Cyclone, Smashing, Djakadam and Ned Buntline at bigger prices. McManus horse has clearly been kept for the race and is fairly enough treated on last years running. The McCoy factor will make him very short at the off.

You think UTPT will improve for Cleave run? I was a bit disappointed with his finishing effort having travelled so well when clearly fancied.

Wasn't too disheartened really he hasn't ran since April, was still there jumping the last. Possible he won't get up the hill but at the price happy enough

MaroonAndGreen · 07-03-2015 7:05pm

Anyone fancy Nichols Canyon in the Supreme Novices? Fits the profile of a Supreme Novice winner IMO, won 2 traditional trial runs for the race and has been backed from 20/1 to 7/1 in places.

Also, Bentelimar in the same race looks appealing and backed in from 100/1 to 20/1 in places. I have a few pound on McKinley also but fear he won't run in the race at all. And Velvet Maker can be got for 100/1 and is worth a very small each-way punt IMO.

Of course, Douvan looks the best horse but favourites struggle in this race, put me off backing him!

BumperD · 07-03-2015 7:08pm

Doubt NC runs in it. Spoils have been short on him for a while but he's near 40/1 on the exchanges....

MaroonAndGreen · 07-03-2015 7:14pm

Probably will run in the Neptune but I'd love to see him in the Supreme to be honest

Backstreet Moyes · 07-03-2015 7:16pm

Seen Johnson said at a preview night remortgage the house and put in on Cheltenian e//w in the county.

MaroonAndGreen · 07-03-2015 7:18pm

I hate taking tips like that, there are sure to be 5 respected people that would give you a different opinion, better off doing your own research IMO and trusting yourself

BumperD · 07-03-2015 7:26pm

Read an article in the sindo a yr or so ago before the festival about the performance of those wearing first time head gear. An interesting analysis, where the writer ran the rule over the previous festival and noticed a trend for those in first time head gear doing well. Que a couple of 33/1 shots last year, western warhorse & very wood was another.

So, I'm going to track all those in first time head gear, lay out a hypothetical betting strategy for next week and see will it come out on top. The interesting thing here is I'll ignore all form, opinions, jockey, trainer, ground, price fluctuations, what way the wind is blowing etc and just put in a hypothetical betting strategy for the 4 days & see can it come out on top.

If a horse has "1" beside his or choice of head piece, then it will fall into my daft little experiment.

Headgear - b=blinkers,
v=visor, e/s = eyeshield,
h = hood, t = tongue-strap;
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.

Backstreet Moyes · 07-03-2015 7:31pm

MaroonAndGreen wrote: »

I hate taking tips like that, there are sure to be 5 respected people that would give you a different opinion, better off doing your own research IMO and trusting yourself

I agree i probably wont back it but he said the same with Fingal Bay last year.

BumperD · 07-03-2015 7:34pm

I was told to back cheltentian last yr by connections, there was a huge plunge on it, tanking along then died at the bottom of the hill. Never heard afterwards what caused it to empty. But I had a large e-w on. And it hurt. If he turns up in the same form this yr he'll be smack there.

lemush · 07-03-2015 7:35pm

MaroonAndGreen wrote: »

Anyone fancy Nichols Canyon in the Supreme Novices? Fits the profile of a Supreme Novice winner IMO, won 2 traditional trial runs for the race and has been backed from 20/1 to 7/1 in places.

Also, Bentelimar in the same race looks appealing and backed in from 100/1 to 20/1 in places. I have a few pound on McKinley also but fear he won't run in the race at all. And Velvet Maker can be got for 100/1 and is worth a very small each-way punt IMO.

Of course, Douvan looks the best horse but favourites struggle in this race, put me off backing him!

Nichols Canyon goes for Neptune and Mckinley goes in the Martin Pipe.

Santa Cruz · 07-03-2015 7:41pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Grand Vision Kim Muir maybe my main one 20/1, my UTPT for the world is looking ok 20/1. Creepy in the novices Tuesday 33/1, Rajdhani for the Plate 20/1. I'd say that's all ill back what about yourself

That Rajdani is an interesting one. Will be there or there abouts

Morleystreet · 07-03-2015 8:25pm

Like most on here can't wait for Cheltenham. Will be off for the 4 days but will be in ireland. So how many of the races will you have a bet in.
I'll have a few horses I fancy where I'll have my main bets, I'll also do a few accums. However I will probably have a bet in all the rte/ch4 televised races. Majority of these will be low stakes and just for the fun/interest.

So how many races do you tend to bet in?

Backstreet Moyes · 07-03-2015 8:33pm

Twenty Seven

hagoonabear · 07-03-2015 8:34pm

will have a good few lucky 15 .10c each way only for a bit in fun and few 0.50 accumulators each way, but if I get a great tip I ll have put on a larger amount, all for abit of fun

AstraOwner · 07-03-2015 8:45pm

I'm not sure how much improvement headgear really brings. There is certainly a trend recently for using it recently. I think in the majority of cases first time headgear is used when the horse would be fancied anyway, which skews the results somewhat. I mean a trainer generally isn't going to use a first time headgear (and any apparent gain) if the horse is running for a mark or having a prep.
In the case of Cheltenham this might be different, because the races are so difficult anyway. I must look up the results actually.

It's interesting that Willie Mullins generally doesn't bother with headgear.

handsfree2 · 07-03-2015 8:45pm

27 but with tiny stakes in the bumper and the Fred winter

AstraOwner · 07-03-2015 9:14pm

The stats don't look very good to be honest. Not good at all.

Jonjo has had a few like Holywell, Alfie Sherrin, Creon and Drombeag. But that's from a lot of runners.

I think it's just luck if a few turn up in the one year.

Gringo180 · 07-03-2015 9:16pm

Wheres Rubys loyalty with the record breaking Hurricane Fly. Disappointed that he has chosen Faugheen, be something else if HF won now he would be sick.

mulbot · 07-03-2015 9:20pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Wheres Rubys loyalty with the record breaking Hurricane Fly. Disappointed that he has chosen Faugheen, be something else if HF won now he would be sick.

it's more about the glory for Ruby Walsh,plus HF has no chance in this year's race-IMO-

jimjamcos · 07-03-2015 9:22pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Wheres Rubys loyalty with the record breaking Hurricane Fly. Disappointed that he has chosen Faugheen, be something else if HF won now he would be sick.

Ah here, he's a professional sportsman not a head lad! He said in RP that he'd have ridden Denman over Kauto in his GC win too if he hadn't been forced into an early decision, fwiw

Shanee. · 07-03-2015 9:31pm

Gonna be an interesting day 1 with all the WPM hotpots. Think Douvan is beatable and trends suggest that aswell. Champion Hurdle is the most exciting it has been in the last 3/4 years since the Fly was turned over at 4/5 by ROR.

Gringo180 · 07-03-2015 9:37pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

Ah here, he's a professional sportsman not a head lad! He said in RP that he'd have ridden Denman over Kauto in his GC win too if he hadn't been forced into an early decision, fwiw

Call me old fashioned but I think its poor form to ditch him in what will be his last festival, its not as if he has regressed either, any sort of rain over the next few days and he is in with a huge chance. Look at McCoy last year he could of easily ditched AFC for MOT but he stayed loyal to the horse even if it was the wrong choice.

mulbot · 07-03-2015 9:49pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned but I think its poor form to ditch him in what will be his last festival, its not as if he has regressed either, any sort of rain over the next few days and he is in with a huge chance. Look at McCoy last year he could of easily ditched AFC for MOT but he stayed loyal to the horse even if it was the wrong choice.

agree,i think maybe they should have kept HF for punchestown,he has no hope at cheltenham,Ruby's decision shows this too-

Black Menorca · 07-03-2015 9:50pm

Poor form from Ruby.

Come on the Fly!

jimjamcos · 07-03-2015 9:52pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned but I think its poor form to ditch him in what will be his last festival, its not as if he has regressed either, any sort of rain over the next few days and he is in with a huge chance. Look at McCoy last year he could of easily ditched AFC for MOT but he stayed loyal to the horse even if it was the wrong choice.

Ha, so by that logic is Mullins being disloyal running a horse (two!) against him? Ruby as first jockey to stable is riding Faugheen because he's the most likely winner, the yards best chance. And if it rains from the heavens, he'll still be that.

Moon Dice · 07-03-2015 10:11pm

Come on lads. Ruby was always going to choose Faugheen. This is not in any way a suprise

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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