I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

25-02-2015 12:06AM

curiouscrater wrote: »

haven't time life is too short, ................

Haha yeah sorry I forgot you are too busy walking 15 miles each day to fetch water for the family.

Sorry I don't know why I'm having a go at you, to be honest I have big respect for you and your approach to life. We would have a grand little country if we as a people would all adopt a more stoic and enterprising approach to life.

25-02-2015 12:10AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The long term average unemployment over the last 40 years is about 10%. It was much higher in the 1980's and emigration was much higher also. In that era the more recent phenomenon of immigration did not exist to any substantial degree either.

The only time in which the unemployment rate was well below 10% for a sustained period was during the Celtic Tiger. And then even when hundreds of thousands came from abroad to work we still had 4% unemployment. So the real unemployment rate is probably around 6% and then you have to factor in the unofficial economy in which some of those people are engaged.

Hmm, so using your logic I suppose everything is fine then, because in the past we had a potato famine?

I agree the lowest you can expect unemployment to reach is 4%, however you stat of the "real" unemployment rate being 6% is just plucked from your @rse to be fair. 10% doesn't include long term unemployed who have dropped from the figures, nor the amount of unemployed people who emigrated.

hinault · 25-02-2015 12:17AM

6541 wrote: »

I am of the opinion that Ireland is in serious trouble now.
I drove across the country at the weekend and it is shocking the state of some of the towns, street after street are lying derelict.
A whole generation have left.
There are zero jobs.
Where I live the soul has been ripped out of the town, go for a drink to be greeted with nobody in the pubs / clubs.
7 years of this and no sign of it ending !
The country is a basket case.

Sure even in parts of our major towns and cities, a large number of residential and commercial properties remain vacant.

Drive along the Ballymount Road and see all the "To Let" signs.
Drive along Shelbourne Road in Dublin 4 and you'll see loads of commercial "To Let" signs too.

In December 2014 to be precise, Grafton Street for the first time in 7 years had all it's street properties fully occupied.

KomradeBishop · 25-02-2015 12:20AM

KingBrian2 wrote: »

The problem with your analysis is your not paying attention to the actual economic data out there. Look at the unemployment rate, go check out the health of the economy through the various channels that contain stats. Not just the media but the Central Bank or the ERSI. Or you could screw that and just look at the Irish stock market to see how many new companies have been formed, their current performance.

Here's an economic stat: 24 people per job vacancy.

There are not enough jobs for all of the unemployed, and there are not going to be enough jobs for a very very long time - possible decades, given that we're going to be hitting deflation again after QE fails.

People need to look past the present, and see the roadblocks we'll be slamming into in the near-future, and how our and Europe's economic situation, will be far from rosy - and will not be on the path to recovery, if we stick with current policies.

dxhound2005 · 25-02-2015 12:25AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Hmm, so using your logic I suppose everything is fine then, because in the past we had a potato famine?

I agree the lowest you can expect unemployment to reach is 4%, however you stat of the "real" unemployment rate being 6% is just plucked from your @rse to be fair. 10% doesn't include long term unemployed who have dropped from the figures, nor the amount of unemployed people who emigrated.

10% unemployment is the long term average so this last few years is not untypical. Things were certainly worse during the famine but can you point to any period say of 5 years in the past in which things were better than they are now? Apart from the Celtic Tiger years which was an artificial bubble.

The present unemployment rate cannot be taken as an indicator that the country is in any more trouble than it ever was before.

The only time when the real unemployment rate could be guaged was the Celtic Tiger years when it bottomed out at around 4% even in the presence of hundreds of thousands arriving to work from abroad. So that 4% who could have take the vacancies filled by the immigrants will still be part of the current 10%, hence my calculation.

KomradeBishop · 25-02-2015 12:26AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

...The population of the country is increasing rapidly partly due to immigration to fill job vacancies here.

That's false - we've had net emigration for years.

flas · 25-02-2015 12:30AM

curiouscrater wrote: »

sounds like you didn't read my post correctly, i educated myself and work to keep myself in a normal standard of living, material things are not worth been in debt for, i pay my way, don't want to be stressed paying bills, have no one on my case, enjoy my kids as I am not stressed or not afraid to answer the door, done a lot of travelling prior family, kids have great holidays here in Ireland, we can go travelling if we want but currently kids too young! have good job and flexibility, worked hard for it, my point is i didn't expect anyone to give it to me or that it's my god given right! feels good to me good family, friends and life thank sm try it sometime ðŸ˜‰

From reading your first it seemed like you had a massive chip on your shoulder! People can work hard and also have good family lives AND have nice things! No one who works hard expects to be given things for free, its seems like you were looking for a pat on the back for doing what the majority of us do which is work hard to take care of our families. Strange post.

dxhound2005 · 25-02-2015 12:31AM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

That's false - we've had net emigration for years.[/QUOTE

Net emigration of about 30,000 Irish citizens annually if memory serves. Something like 70% of those left employment here to emigrate.

But the population is still increasing rapidly. It went up by one million in the 20 years after 1990 and there is no indication of that increase slowing down. Which could be taken to be an indicator of a vibrant economy.

Sh1tbag OToole · 25-02-2015 12:31AM

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

No. It's real growth. Rural Ireland was in trouble before the recession. Growth will be in cities and more young people will move to cities. This isn't exclusive to Ireland. If anything, Ireland is behind the curve.

Strange how people go mad for city living, used to live in one myself and fecking hated it, but I managed to find a job where I at least don't have to live in a city so things are not all doom and gloom

KomradeBishop · 25-02-2015 12:36AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

10% unemployment is the long term average so this last few years is not untypical. Things were certainly worse during the famine but can you point to any period say of 5 years in the past in which things were better than they are now? Apart from the Celtic Tiger years which was an artificial bubble.

The present unemployment rate cannot be taken as an indicator that the country is in any more trouble than it ever was before.

The only time when the real unemployment rate could be guaged was the Celtic Tiger years when it bottomed out at around 4% even in the presence of hundreds of thousands arriving to work from abroad. So that 4% who could have take the vacancies filled by the immigrants will still be part of the current 10%, hence my calculation.

Sorry but, that's total bollocks - you won't find any economist, anywhere, who suggests that 10% unemployment is 'ok'.

If the economy has an unemployment rate greater than a level which can be considered normal for job-churn, then the economy is below its maximum potential. The economy is at its maximum potential, when as much of the labour force as possible is being used - and that's the point at which we will have achieved true full recovery.

Just because we've had two major periods of economic crisis in the last 40 years, doesn't mean you just average-out the unemployment levels during that overall period, and say that's the 'new normal'.

dxhound2005 · 25-02-2015 12:45AM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Sorry but, that's total bollocks - you won't find any economist, anywhere, who suggests that 10% unemployment is 'ok'.

If the economy has an unemployment rate greater than a level which can be considered normal for job-churn, then the economy is below its maximum potential. The economy is at its maximum potential, when as much of the labour force as possible is being used - and that's the point at which we will have achieved true full recovery.

Just because we've had two major periods of economic crisis in the last 40 years, doesn't mean you just average-out the unemployment levels during that overall period, and say that's the 'new normal'.

It is the normal for this country. The abnormal was during the Celtic Tiger years. Check the past records for yourself. When doing that you will find unemployment rates of 18% and much higher emigration rates (when virtually everyone leaving was Irish and unemployed). You will also find mortgage interest rates approaching 20% on occasion and a long period when they were consistently in double figures. Just another aspect of the economy which was worse then than now.

How would you go about bringing the unemployment rate down to say 5% when it was never done in the past except in the Bertie Ahern, Charlie McCreevey years?

KomradeBishop · 25-02-2015 12:58AM

It is not the normal for this country - you will not find a single economist saying it is. Again, you don't 'average out' unemployment figures across two major economic downturns. The only place you'd learn that is the FG school of spindoctoring.

dxhound2005 · 25-02-2015 01:08AM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

It is not the normal for this country - you will not find a single economist saying it is. Again, you don't 'average out' unemployment figures across two major economic downturns. The only place you'd learn that is the FG school of spindoctoring.

How do these economists explain that what they apparently regard as normal has never obtained here? If it never obtained here that would make it abnormal. Just ignoring the fact that the long term average unemployment rate is 10% doesn't make it untrue.

And how would they or you go about achieving that new normal? Which let's say would be 5% unemployment or less over the next 40 years. The only way it was achieved in the past was by the Charlie McCreevey budgetary regime. Is that the sort of normal you are thinking of?

25-02-2015 01:59AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

How do these economists explain that what they apparently regard as normal has never obtained here? If it never obtained here that would make it abnormal. Just ignoring the fact that the long term average unemployment rate is 10% doesn't make it untrue.

And how would they or you go about achieving that new normal? Which let's say would be 5% unemployment or less over the next 40 years. The only way it was achieved in the past was by the Charlie McCreevey budgetary regime. Is that the sort of normal you are thinking of?

You cannot compare Ireland of today to Ireland of 30/40 years ago.

Our economic output is vastly different, going from mostly agriculture to mostly services / property related.

Also, back then there was much less urbanisation, with an overall minority of the population living in cities. Sure back then South Dublin's outer suburbs would have not gone further than Stillorgan with only countryside after that.

curiouscrater · 25-02-2015 07:19AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Haha yeah sorry I forgot you are too busy walking 15 miles each day to fetch water for the family.

Sorry I don't know why I'm having a go at you, to be honest I have big respect for you and your approach to life. We would have a grand little country if we as a people would all adopt a more stoic and enterprising approach to life.

wouldn't be Ireland if people didn't have a go, fiercely proud to be irish and to show off our little country . Full stop.Just wish that people would stop whinging. Full stop. I have seen real poverty and hard living, we are clueless , self absorbed, full of self entitlement . Full stop. Collins , Sands and those people who give life and soul for ireland must be turning in their graves! Must dash "Water is my right " So need to get my bucket to go to the well, half mile away, queue and carry it on my head home. Wish we could somehow have directly to our taps. Full stop. Must remember to pick berries for kids lunch and make new shoes from tree bark!.........Here are a few full stops for you to put in, in case I forgot! Now I know what keyboard warrior means! Have a great day!

RobertKK · 25-02-2015 07:43AM

curiouscrater wrote: »

wouldn't be Ireland if people didn't have a go, fiercely proud to be irish and to show off our little country . Full stop.Just wish that people would stop whinging. Full stop. I have seen real poverty and hard living, we are clueless , self absorbed, full of self entitlement . Full stop. Collins , Sands and those people who give life and soul for ireland must be turning in their graves! Must dash "Water is my right " So need to get my bucket to go to the well, half mile away, queue and carry it on my head home. Wish we could somehow have directly to our taps. Full stop. Must remember to pick berries for kids lunch and make new shoes from tree bark!.........Here are a few full stops for you to put in, in case I forgot! Now I know what keyboard warrior means! Have a great day!

Agree about real poverty. In the past I knew a person from Malawi, pen pals before internet. Incredibly poor, he thought I was very rich being from Ireland, and reality is yes compared to his circumstances.
I would send him stuff he asked for, he would send pictures of his country cut off from papers or magazines.

So much opportunity in Ireland compared to where absolute poverty exists.

curiouscrater · 25-02-2015 08:04AM

flas wrote: »

From reading your first it seemed like you had a massive chip on your shoulder! People can work hard and also have good family lives AND have nice things! No one who works hard expects to be given things for free, its seems like you were looking for a pat on the back for doing what the majority of us do which is work hard to take care of our families. Strange post.

Your pychic ability anazes me, it's my opinion, stop reading between the lines ! I NEVER wrote on forums before, if i wanted glory I would find a more public place to do so! I'm happy thanks, sick of people self absorbed and not appreciating our country!

Streetwalker · 25-02-2015 08:12AM

10% unemployment is a shocking stat but the real problem is the quality of a lot of the jobs that are being created. Yes there is a massive fanfare with various gimp ministers turning our for hi-tec job creation but most of the small amount of jobs being created are low paid minimum wage part time stuff in supermarkets and the like that is impossible to raise a family on or lead a decent standard of life. Also look behind the figures and you'll find the long term unemployment problem is worse here than any other country in Europe as employers often refuse to even consider interviewing anyone who is long term unemployed in Ireland. Take a drive around certain parts of the country and you'll see men in their 40's and 50's looking like they are in their 60's beaten down with the strain of trying to live on 188 euro a week or worse again if their wife works more than likely 16 euro a week. These are our societies forgotten unemployed and this government has totally failed them.

yipeeeee · 25-02-2015 08:31AM

Streetwalker wrote: »

10% unemployment is a shocking stat but the real problem is the quality of a lot of the jobs that are being created. Yes there is a massive fanfare with various gimp ministers turning our for hi-tec job creation but most of the small amount of jobs being created are low paid minimum wage part time stuff in supermarkets and the like that is impossible to raise a family on or lead a decent standard of life. Also look behind the figures and you'll find the long term unemployment problem is worse here than any other country in Europe as employers often refuse to even consider interviewing anyone who is long term unemployed in Ireland. Take a drive around certain parts of the country and you'll see men in their 40's and 50's looking like they are in their 60's beaten down with the strain of trying to live on 188 euro a week or worse again if their wife works more than likely 16 euro a week. These are our societies forgotten unemployed and this government has totally failed them.

9 out of 10 people working isn't bad, and its improving.

Field east · 25-02-2015 09:20AM

Grimreaper666 wrote: »

I'm just commenting on what i'm seeing not what i'm being told to believe.

This is a Hugh claim by Ireland and it is the kind of issue that any gov would grasp at to prove that we are up there with the best of them. I would love to know the figures used to make this claim.
So would appreciate if Grimreaper666 would demonstrate how she /he reached the conclusion that Ireland is not the fastest growing economy in the Eurozone. While responding , you might indicate the growing rate for all the euro zone economies -from the fastest to the slowest.

KomradeBishop · 25-02-2015 09:23AM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

How do these economists explain that what they apparently regard as normal has never obtained here? If it never obtained here that would make it abnormal. Just ignoring the fact that the long term average unemployment rate is 10% doesn't make it untrue.

And how would they or you go about achieving that new normal? Which let's say would be 5% unemployment or less over the next 40 years. The only way it was achieved in the past was by the Charlie McCreevey budgetary regime. Is that the sort of normal you are thinking of?

You're just ignorant of our economic history, in claiming that we've never had <=5% unemployment outside of the last two decades - go back and look at the long-term historical stats - and ignorant of economics in general, by assuming our astronomically high unemployment rates are 'normal'.

No economist thinks that you can determine what unemployment rate is 'normal', just by picking an average of a countries unemployment rate over almost half a century - that's one of the dumbest arguments I've heard in any economic discussion, and it's obvious you're being facetious for the sake of spin.

KomradeBishop · 25-02-2015 09:30AM

yipeeeee wrote: »

9 out of 10 people working isn't bad, and its improving.

You'll find plenty of economists, worldwide, telling you it's bad - and any improvement we get is going to be stalled and reversed, once QE fails and deflation sets in throughout Europe.

yipeeeee · 25-02-2015 09:32AM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

You'll find plenty of economists, worldwide, telling you it's bad - and any improvement we get is going to be stalled and reversed, once QE fails and deflation sets in throughout Europe.

Show us?

KomradeBishop · 25-02-2015 09:44AM

yipeeeee wrote: »

Show us?

The argument lacking credibility, is that 10% unemployment is 'good' or 'normal', so I'll happily shift the burden of proof on to you: Find me a respectable economist, saying that an unemployment rate of 10% is good or normal.

Field east · 25-02-2015 10:09AM

Streetwalker wrote: »

10% unemployment is a shocking stat but the real problem is the quality of a lot of the jobs that are being created. Yes there is a massive fanfare with various gimp ministers turning our for hi-tec job creation but most of the small amount of jobs being created are low paid minimum wage part time stuff in supermarkets and the like that is impossible to raise a family on or lead a decent standard of life. Also look behind the figures and you'll find the long term unemployment problem is worse here than any other country in Europe as employers often refuse to even consider interviewing anyone who is long term unemployed in Ireland. Take a drive around certain parts of the country and you'll see men in their 40's and 50's looking like they are in their 60's beaten down with the strain of trying to live on 188 euro a week or worse again if their wife works more than likely 16 euro a week. These are our societies forgotten unemployed and this government has totally failed them.

There is an attitudinal/ structural failure - "a deficit" - in this area IMO. I know from indirect and direct experience that it is a most challenging place to be. Who is responsible for this failure is not clear but I think that the unemployed, relevant government and non government agencies, the media and government are all contributing to the failure.

That Deficit
Take a person who is long term unemployed and has done absolutely nothing since being let go apart from eating, sleeping , maybe made a few job applications and basically waited for a job to turn up.
Take another LTU who , while unemployed, has a walking schedule, her/his own or ideally with a group; doing / did courses/training of interest; got into basic DIY; grows vegetables/ flowers; doing some voluntary/ community work; has a schedule of housework; develops a hobby; goes swimming; reads books; follows stories of national/ interest in the media; etc
The interview
If only the above two turned up for interview , then all other things being equal, which one would you give the job to? I guess that you need not ask.

You might say that because that you will never be called for interview because you are LTU , but I would be of the opinion that the CV of the 2nd example would 'jump out' from the pack and your chances of being called for interview are hightened. I guess that not many such CVs land on the tables of short listing staff.
The point is the more that you do while unemployed, the better your CV will be, the better you will feel - especially when being interviewed- including healthwise.
With this approach you may never make the LTU category.
As I said earlier, it is a very difficult time for the individual, but one has to remain positive, mix with positive people. You are either a ' glass half empty or half full' individual.
It is disappointing that TheGovernment did not initiate and immediately mainstream a strategy /framework to address the issue of shortterm/longterm unemployment issue in a more wholistic way when it knew back in 2008/9 that it was going this seriously escalate. The bits it did was very disjointed.
It is still not too late as the concept will always be relevant

syklops · 25-02-2015 10:11AM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

You'll find plenty of economists, worldwide, telling you it's bad - and any improvement we get is going to be stalled and reversed, once QE fails and deflation sets in throughout Europe.

Well as they say, God invented economists to make astrologers look good

Field east · 25-02-2015 10:25AM

kkelly77 wrote: »

McKinsey Global Institute acoording to the ARTICLE

It is very hard to know what is objective and whether or not there is a hidden agenda based on this report. . It has Ireland at the 2nd highest- highest being the worst- without stating the relevant year or explaining how it was calculated. A lot of recent/ current reports have the fig at circa 110 % -give or take 5%. If that is the case , then the rest of the report should be read with a jaundiced eye

andrew · 25-02-2015 10:33AM

syklops wrote: »

Well as they say, God invented economists to make astrologers look good

So you're saying that Economists have been put on earth by god? Sweet!

Valetta · 25-02-2015 10:40AM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

The argument lacking credibility, is that 10% unemployment is 'good' or 'normal', so I'll happily shift the burden of proof on to you: Find me a respectable economist, saying that an unemployment rate of 10% is good or normal.

10% is better that 14%, but not as good as 5%.

The downward trend is good.

The amount of pedantry is shocking, and leads me to believe the posters have nothing of substance to contribute.

What any economists say is irrelevant.

ringadingding · 25-02-2015 10:41AM

I'm just about to move my family back from Vienna.
I think Ireland is an amazing little country, not without it faults.
But where is.
Austria for example, it has the perfect functioning infrastructure , yet the people act like spoilt brats, miserable and tantrums if a bus is 2 minutes late, making everybody miserable.

I know the faults of Ireland, and after travelling around a good bit, I can tell you that we should be bloody proud of our country.

And I'm delighted to be moving my family back.

* I'm poking my head in the sand a bit over Dublin rental prices though :-)*

I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

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