I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

KomradeBishop

Germany was massively indebted from the reconstruction of Germany after WWII. What, exactly, was their public debt level in the couple of years prior to WWII?

riclad

house prices in dublin are rising,
there s 1000,s of jobs on jobs websites, etc

The ecb is about to pour billions into the european economy,
quantitive easing,
i assume ireland will get some of this.

economys go up and down in cycles.

YES there maybe few jobs in certain rural area.s .

the big picture is complicated ,
we had emigration in the 80s.

KingBrian2

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Germany was massively indebted from the reconstruction of Germany after WWII. What, exactly, was their public debt level in the couple of years prior to WWII?

Prior to WW2 their debt was unsustainable, after WW2 the country was in ruins so it did not matter. The presence of American GI's would have improved the figures and indeed the country did not do too back once actual governance took place, not thug economics.

KomradeBishop

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Prior to WW2 their debt was unsustainable, after WW2 the country was in ruins so it did not matter. The presence of American GI's would have improved the figures and indeed the country did not do too back once actual governance took place, not thug economics.

You're making that claim without any backing: Show how their debt was unsustainable - what was their pre-WWII public debt level, and their debt-to-GDP level, for instance? (in the couple of years prior to the war)

KingBrian2

KomradeBishop wrote: »

You're making that claim without any backing: Show how their debt was unsustainable - what was their pre-WWII public debt level, and their debt-to-GDP level, for instance? (in the couple of years prior to the war)

The world has come a long way since Nazi Germany and the fact you bring up their economic policy says it all. They hardly were a legal political party in Germany in the first place and as soon as they got into Government they dissolved the constitution.

As for their economy, under their rewritten monetary policy that suited their own interests they confiscated and appropriated wealth from various parts of the country. Without going into the multiple text books and publications about the Nazi economic policy they basically profited from a war industry that insatiable kept the Central Banker constantly worried about the Finances of Germany.

The real economy shrank well before the Jews left. The Nazis owned everything, prime real estate, museums, media, shops, churches and factories. Any sense of a real monetary system was non existent. Why would anyone want to stay in a state that was rotting from the inside? Business was redundant, consumers had no choices. This is why the Reich eventually was destroyed.

KomradeBishop

Stop wasting time avoiding the question: You said they were in unsustainable debt, so what was their public debt level in the couple of years pre-WWII?

If you can't answer that, then your statement about their debts being unsustainable, has no backing.

Desolation Of Smug

Is yer man still convinced?

Alexis Sanchez2

Germany's Finances were unsustainable entering the war, they needed the war to take assets from other countries.

KingBrian2

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Stop wasting time avoiding the question: You said they were in unsustainable debt, so what was their public debt level in the couple of years pre-WWII?

If you can't answer that, then your statement about their debts being unsustainable, has no backing.

Ah yes avoiding the question by recounting the errors made by the Nazi party. coming to power. The previous government was actually improving when the Nazi party took over.

KomradeBishop

So there's no backing provided to show that their public debt was excessive or unsustainable, in the couple of years prior to WWII - grand, can discard that idea as totally unbacked so.

Greyian

KomradeBishop wrote: »

So there's no backing provided to show that their public debt was excessive or unsustainable, in the couple of years prior to WWII - grand, can discard that idea as totally unbacked so.

You actually brought up Nazi Germany's economy first, so you should really be providing the evidence that their economy was in a strong position pre-WW2.


This, however, certainly sounds unsustainable:

government income had been 10 billion Reichsmarks in 1928. In 1939, it stood at 15 billion. However, government spending had increased from 12 billion Reichsmarks in 1928 to over 30 billion in 1939 - a difference of 15 billion Reichsmarks. From 1933 to 1939, the Nazi government always spent more than it earned so that by 1939, government debt stood at over 40 billion Resichsmarks.

Or, from Wiki:

Between 1933 and 1939, the total revenue was 62 billion marks, whereas expenditure (at times made up to 60% by rearmament costs) exceeded 101 billion, thus creating a huge deficit and national debt (reaching 38 billion mark in 1939) coinciding with the Kristallnacht and intensified persecutions of Jews and the outbreak of the war.

You'll probably also notice that the first link mentions food consumption being down, with the only food sources without increased consumption being rye bread, cheese and potatoes. Doesn't really sound all that great to me.

KingBrian2

KomradeBishop wrote: »

So there's no backing provided to show that their public debt was excessive or unsustainable, in the couple of years prior to WWII - grand, can discard that idea as totally unbacked so.

This is the last time I engage in conversation on this matter. Here is a lengthy piece that will suit your fascination in Nazi Germany's economy

https://coffeecuphistory.wordpress.com/2013/05/06/the-myth-of-nazi-efficiency/

Concerning the Nazi state you present a misleading counterfactual argument that Germany had low debt rate prior to the Nazis coming to power. You very well know that it is a complicated picture and by asking for simple GDP figures that don't tell the full story, it will confirm your analysis of a vibrant economy.

Ireland can't be in that much serious trouble if the discussion is about Nazi Germany. :pac:

Anyway, did anyone see the Decline in Rural Ireland programme on RTÉ last night?

Living near Athlone means that rural decline isn't an issue in this area (due to the good commuter links to Dublin), but many areas nearby are really struggling as all the jobs appear to be in Dublin and many of us are forced to commute there each day.

Another generation and I wouldn't be surprised to find my home area full of only the elderly as all our kids move to the cities.

KingBrian2

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland can't be in that much serious trouble if the discussion is about Nazi Germany. :pac:

Anyway, did anyone see the Decline in Rural Ireland programme on RTÉ last night?

Living near Athlone means that rural decline isn't an issue in this area (due to the good commuter links to Dublin), but many areas nearby are really struggling as all the jobs appear to be in Dublin and many of us are forced to commute there each day.

Another generation and I wouldn't be surprised to find my home area full of only the elderly as all our kids move to the cities.

Dublin has it all unfortunately for the countryside but look on the Brightside, beautiful nature, clear skies and less congestion. Dubliners often complain about the dirtiness and crowd trouble that residents of the countryside have none of.

KomradeBishop

Greyian wrote: »

You actually brought up Nazi Germany's economy first, so you should really be providing the evidence that their economy was in a strong position pre-WW2.

The burden of proof is on the person making the claims - if people are claiming there was unsustainable public debt in the years running up to WWII, they have to back that up.

If you try to flip the burden of proof, then people can just make up any old bullshít to try and discredit a claim, and shift the burden of proof onto the other person.

Greyian wrote: »

This, however, certainly sounds unsustainable:


Or, from Wiki:


You'll probably also notice that the first link mentions food consumption being down, with the only food sources without increased consumption being rye bread, cheese and potatoes. Doesn't really sound all that great to me.

Here you have a document listing the GNP of Germany in the 1930's, on P3 - the GNP in 1939 was 109 billion Reichsmark:
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/WirtschaftStatistik/VGR/RezessionBetrachtung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

By your figures, that is a debt to GNP ratio of only 36% - most of Europe now would love public debt figures at that ratio. They could have gone on spending like that for years.

I have never argued that their stance of spending for war was sustainable (the Allies were outpacing them on armaments production by a good amount) or 'nice' to live in (rations were a common feature through Europe due to all resources being put into wartime production), I have argued primarily that their use of MEFO bills was perfectly sustainable - and that peoples claim that their public debt levels had grown excessively large are false (which I've now proven).

Use of MEFO bills - i.e. effectively printing money - was a gigantic success for the Nazi economy (and beginning only a decade after the Weimar republic!), and likely played a huge part in keeping their debt levels so low (since spending through MEFO bills instead of through selling bonds, allowed them to spend without adding to public debt).

KomradeBishop

KingBrian2 wrote: »

This is the last time I engage in conversation on this matter. Here is a lengthy piece that will suit your fascination in Nazi Germany's economy

https://coffeecuphistory.wordpress.com/2013/05/06/the-myth-of-nazi-efficiency/

Concerning the Nazi state you present a misleading counterfactual argument that Germany had low debt rate prior to the Nazis coming to power. You very well know that it is a complicated picture and by asking for simple GDP figures that don't tell the full story, it will confirm your analysis of a vibrant economy.

I didn't say anything about before the Nazi's coming to power - you know full well, I said in the couple of years prior to WWII.

I've now just - with the help of stats from Greyian, along with some I researched myself - I've now completely debunked your claim that German public debt levels were unsustainable.

You're just making shít up really, to try and pan MEFO bills.

BuilderPlumber

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland can't be in that much serious trouble if the discussion is about Nazi Germany. :pac:

Anyway, did anyone see the Decline in Rural Ireland programme on RTÉ last night?

Living near Athlone means that rural decline isn't an issue in this area (due to the good commuter links to Dublin), but many areas nearby are really struggling as all the jobs appear to be in Dublin and many of us are forced to commute there each day.

Another generation and I wouldn't be surprised to find my home area full of only the elderly as all our kids move to the cities.

Yes, I saw this very revealing programme and the followup discussion on Claire Byrne's show. Quite clearly there is a 2 or 3 tier society where certain areas are doing very well. Dublin mainly and the city I work in, Cork, as well. I notice around the Cork area that there is prosperity in the towns close to the city but the further away from the city and main roads one goes, the worse it gets.

I am familiar too with Athlone and other towns in Westmeath, Longford, Leitrim, etc. and the same story replicates. For every Athlone, Longford or Carrick, there are the villages where nothing goes on. Even that said and done, even in the main towns, there are problems. The man closing his shop in Longford being an example. Now, even in Dublin, there is of course neglect and poverty. Just watch Love/Hate and you see the other Dublin. But nothing is done about any of this.

I think there are perhaps many reasons for this. Friends of mine keep saying that this whole focus on technology renders many jobs to be unrealistic. Like, the skills required are way outside the radar of most Irish people even those with IT qualifications!!!!! We hear of technology innovations all the time but these make only the owner and a few rich. Most workers are imported from elsewhere. As friends keep saying to me, we do not have NASA in this country.

Also, I thought what Simon Coveney said on Claire Byrne was not in the best of taste. He implied he did not care about the pubs closing. Again, this whole society seems to be blinded by the problem drinking of the few and are collectively branding all as binge drinkers officially (with their 3 pints in one sitting nonsense). Quickly, we are turning Ireland into a semi-Taliban state and Coveney's total indifference to the pubs' closures was clear.

What he does not realise is that pubs are more than drinking venues. It is where rural communities meet and do business. Agri contractors, etc. all do deals there. Families are employed by the business. Farmers do well out of growing the crops. Musicians have a place to showcase their talents. And staff are employed. From my experience in rural Cork, there are very very few good rural pubs left and it is time Coveney and others like him take note and reconsider their at best indifferent and at worse biased views (views coming from the privileged elites who do not need pubs, local shops, local POs, etc. actually. Coveney does not have to live in the real world and has his own private bar, shop and post services anytime he wants!).

It is the same indifference with the garda stations, post offices, local shops, etc. that has killed rural societies as well as poor parts of Dublin and our other cities. Rural societies and the urban poor need to fight back and with an election coming up, the focus should be on supporting business. Instead of debating harmful legislation like taking away alcohol sponsorship for sports and music events, it should be about doing MORE not LESS for such events. The stupidity and naivety of our politicians and their tunnel vision knows now boundaries. People call this politely as 'nanny state'. Instead, it is creeping dictatorship of the kind that eventually consumed and ruined once great countries like Iran in the 1980s. Iran today is a country where rural society is almost nonexistent: in the 1970s, local businesses like shops, pubs, restaurants, etc. thrived there. As a result of government policy in the 1980s, many businesses were ruined because it did not fit the new government's fascist based ideologies. We need to think long and hard about where Ireland wants to be.

Chips Lovell

I'm sorry, but saying rural pub closure signifies a "semi-Taliban state" is hyperbolic in the extreme.

BuilderPlumber

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

I'm sorry, but saying rural pub closure signifies a "semi-Taliban state" is hyperbolic in the extreme.

No, it's not. If I said 'Taliban state', it would. Because we are not that. But semi (meaning veering towards or showing similar signs) yes. Now, let's get some things straight:

1. Taliban built their fascist repressive voodoo based state on a foundation. Afghanistan was a war ravaged country for decades familiar with dictators and violence since the 1970s. The Taliban took all that on board and added to it.

2. Ireland is a much much better country than Afghanistan and a much better society. But, we at present have certain rights and we need to defend these. Governments are in the name of health at the moment trying to brainwash us against alcohol. This is where the hyperbole exists. Left unchecked, governments can take one right after another away from people. True, Taliban and the 1980s regime in Iran, indeed ISIS today, were all blessed with a war and could implement or further repressive rules due to 'emergency legislation' especially when people were not listening beforehand! People in Iran were banned from drinking because they had to be ready for Saddam was often the way this fascist based repression was implemented (but the rich politicians in Iran drank a lot always). Nazi Germany implemented its anti-Jew laws by piecemeal too.

3. I never said the Irish government is forcing pubs to close. What I did say, is they don't help or are indifferent and this is clearly the attitude shown by Coveney on Claire Byrne 2 nights ago. We need less of this and we need to confront viewpoints like reducing sponsorship for events. This is being proposed and is not hyperbole but is real. While it is NOT saying that pubs and alcohol are being banned, it is putting many out of business and reducing community events. Which is in the end the same result.

Chips Lovell

Regardless of the merits of the government's alcohol policy I think you're falling victim to the slippery slope fallacy here.

BuilderPlumber

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Regardless of the merits of the government's alcohol policy I think you're falling victim to the slippery slope fallacy here.

No. I am not. The only thing victim to a slippery slope is rural and deprived parts of urban Ireland too.

What I saw on Monday's programme in towns all over the midlands is all too common. Boarded up shops, hotels, restaurants, pubs, chippers, even shopping centres. Ghost estates. Closed post offices and garda stations. Soulless towns with nothing going for them. Increased crime, emigration, depression, etc. I see it all the time in the rural Cork area and into non-tourist parts of Kerry too.

Even at the height of the recession in 2010/2011/2012, things did not seem as bad as they are now. At present, rural Ireland is at its worst and government indifference or silly policies about sponsorship are the last thing that are needed.

KingBrian2

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

No. I am not. The only thing victim to a slippery slope is rural and deprived parts of urban Ireland too.

What I saw on Monday's programme in towns all over the midlands is all too common. Boarded up shops, hotels, restaurants, pubs, chippers, even shopping centres. Ghost estates. Closed post offices and garda stations. Soulless towns with nothing going for them. Increased crime, emigration, depression, etc. I see it all the time in the rural Cork area and into non-tourist parts of Kerry too.

Even at the height of the recession in 2010/2011/2012, things did not seem as bad as they are now. At present, rural Ireland is at its worst and government indifference or silly policies about sponsorship are the last thing that are needed.

Local corruption past and present played an even bigger part in the how the recession impacted the countryside. The recent scandals in Dublin City that highlighted the extent of tax evasion has run its course, the need to make public that the countryside was very much full of tax avoiders and fraudsters as well.

riclad

Certain area,s towns had too many pubs,
when the boom was over ,there was no enough business to keep them going,
new laws re smoking ,drink driving ,
encouraged people to stay at home .
buy drink from supermarkets ,rather than going to the pub.
IT might be accurate to say some rural area,s have serious problems.

jank

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

Yes, I saw this very revealing programme and the followup discussion on Claire Byrne's show. Quite clearly there is a 2 or 3 tier society where certain areas are doing very well. Dublin mainly and the city I work in, Cork, as well. I notice around the Cork area that there is prosperity in the towns close to the city but the further away from the city and main roads one goes, the worse it gets.

I am familiar too with Athlone and other towns in Westmeath, Longford, Leitrim, etc. and the same story replicates. For every Athlone, Longford or Carrick, there are the villages where nothing goes on. Even that said and done, even in the main towns, there are problems. The man closing his shop in Longford being an example. Now, even in Dublin, there is of course neglect and poverty. Just watch Love/Hate and you see the other Dublin. But nothing is done about any of this.

I think there are perhaps many reasons for this. Friends of mine keep saying that this whole focus on technology renders many jobs to be unrealistic. Like, the skills required are way outside the radar of most Irish people even those with IT qualifications!!!!! We hear of technology innovations all the time but these make only the owner and a few rich. Most workers are imported from elsewhere. As friends keep saying to me, we do not have NASA in this country.

Also, I thought what Simon Coveney said on Claire Byrne was not in the best of taste. He implied he did not care about the pubs closing. Again, this whole society seems to be blinded by the problem drinking of the few and are collectively branding all as binge drinkers officially (with their 3 pints in one sitting nonsense). Quickly, we are turning Ireland into a semi-Taliban state and Coveney's total indifference to the pubs' closures was clear.

What he does not realise is that pubs are more than drinking venues. It is where rural communities meet and do business. Agri contractors, etc. all do deals there. Families are employed by the business. Farmers do well out of growing the crops. Musicians have a place to showcase their talents. And staff are employed. From my experience in rural Cork, there are very very few good rural pubs left and it is time Coveney and others like him take note and reconsider their at best indifferent and at worse biased views (views coming from the privileged elites who do not need pubs, local shops, local POs, etc. actually. Coveney does not have to live in the real world and has his own private bar, shop and post services anytime he wants!).

It is the same indifference with the garda stations, post offices, local shops, etc. that has killed rural societies as well as poor parts of Dublin and our other cities. Rural societies and the urban poor need to fight back and with an election coming up, the focus should be on supporting business. Instead of debating harmful legislation like taking away alcohol sponsorship for sports and music events, it should be about doing MORE not LESS for such events. The stupidity and naivety of our politicians and their tunnel vision knows now boundaries. People call this politely as 'nanny state'. Instead, it is creeping dictatorship of the kind that eventually consumed and ruined once great countries like Iran in the 1980s. Iran today is a country where rural society is almost nonexistent: in the 1970s, local businesses like shops, pubs, restaurants, etc. thrived there. As a result of government policy in the 1980s, many businesses were ruined because it did not fit the new government's fascist based ideologies. We need to think long and hard about where Ireland wants to be.

Coveney has a private pub and post office dedicated to his own personal needs. Do please elaborate!

Most workers are not imported but it is true that there is more competition for unskilled jobs due to the EU labour market. This is an issue in western countries not just Ireland. The idea that one can earn a decent-ish living without having any key skills to offer is gone forever. Welcome to globalisation. It may suck for the guy who drops out of school at age 16 with no real skills or qualification but for that woman in Bangladesh it means she has a job that can feed her children and she wont have to prostitute herself in order to put a roof over her families head.

Again pubs closing is more to do with changes with in demographics and the market for alcohol rather than anti rural policies. Also the migration from rural places to urban towns and cities is again a world wide phenomenon.

Also, I dont think rural Iran had 'pubs' even pre-Islamic Revolution. Ireland's relationship with the pub and alcohol is fairly unique in many aspects.

riclad

Article on independent .ie says ireland has 4.8 per cent growth rate,
thats very good ,compared with other european countrys .

There,s been a boom and bust situation going on in rural area,s
depending on rate of immigration ,emigration .
Some shops close because of new tech trends,
people buying music online, netflix etc
there,s not many video rental shops left.OR record ,music stores .
of course people will complain if we have a boom,
House prices will go up again .
I Come from a small rural town, theres about 10 pubs in it, and 3 hotels .
I have,nt noticed any pubs closing in the last 5 years .