I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

Jawgap

6541 wrote: »

I am of the opinion that Ireland is in serious trouble now.
I drove across the country at the weekend and it is shocking the state of some of the towns, street after street are lying derelict.
A whole generation have left.
There are zero jobs.
Where I live the soul has been ripped out of the town, go for a drink to be greeted with nobody in the pubs / clubs.
7 years of this and no sign of it ending !
The country is a basket case.

......so like the 1980s then?

All we need to do now is win the Eurovision and it really will seem like we've slipped back in time.

Gits_bone

I left college 2 years ago and not one of us didn't get a job related to our degree. Good jobs with big companies too, no forced emigration only ones that wanted to go.

Definitely more jobs.

People should remember a lot of those gone out to Australia choose to go there. Many people from my hometown are having a great time of it travelling. It's by no means a "I'm going to work in Nigeria, oh 'tis awful hardship" kind of thing.

Field east

Deleted User wrote: »

Hmm, so using your logic I suppose everything is fine then, because in the past we had a potato famine?

I agree the lowest you can expect unemployment to reach is 4%, however you stat of the "real" unemployment rate being 6% is just plucked from your @rse to be fair. 10% doesn't include long term unemployed who have dropped from the figures, nor the amount of unemployed people who emigrated.

RE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE WHO EMIGRATED
How does that work if the unemployed who emigrated to , say, the US , I assume to work. Is she/he recorded as employed or unemployed as the case may be in the US and unemployed in Ireland Also, how would you manage a person who left a job in Ireland to immediately take up a job in the US. They would be technically unemployed in Ireland

How would you suggest the reciprocal situation would be documented whereby a US citizen would come to take up a situation in Ireland or arrive and remained unemployed?

syklops

Jawgap wrote: »

......so like the 1980s then?

All we need to do now is win the Eurovision and it really will seem like we've slipped back in time.

Or have Garth Brooks play a sell out tour?

Maximus Alexander

Jawgap wrote: »

......so like the 1980s then?

All we need to do now is win the Eurovision and it really will seem like we've slipped back in time.

And we'll be in a World Cup quarter final in no time at all!

KomradeBishop

Valetta wrote: »

10% is better that 14%, but not as good as 5%.

The downward trend is good.

The amount of pedantry is shocking, and leads me to believe the posters have nothing of substance to contribute.

What any economists say is irrelevant.

Yes, what any economists have to say about our economy, is irrelevant...

Again, as I've repeated in this thread plenty of times: We are going to hit deflation when QE fails, and then we can forget about improvements to our unemployment figures - we'll be headed for long-term (decades) stagnation, if Europe stays on its current course.

Valetta

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Yes, what any economists have to say about our economy, is irrelevant...

Again, as I've repeated in this thread plenty of times: We are going to hit deflation when QE fails, and then we can forget about improvements to our unemployment figures - we'll be headed for long-term (decades) stagnation, if Europe stays on its current course.

You state that as fact, which it is not.

jimgoose

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Yes, what any economists have to say about our economy, is irrelevant...

Again, as I've repeated in this thread plenty of times: We are going to hit deflation when QE fails, and then we can forget about improvements to our unemployment figures - we'll be headed for long-term (decades) stagnation, if Europe stays on its current course.

I find it difficult to disagree, while the EU continues to scrabble for fiscal solutions to a monetary problem, and looking at each other in disbelief when that keeps not working! :pac:

Maximus Alexander

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Yes, what any economists have to say about our economy, is irrelevant...

Again, as I've repeated in this thread plenty of times: We are going to hit deflation when QE fails, and then we can forget about improvements to our unemployment figures - we'll be headed for long-term (decades) stagnation, if Europe stays on its current course.

Deflation means my savings will be worth more right? Huzzah!

syklops

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Yes, what any economists have to say about our economy, is irrelevant...

Again, as I've repeated in this thread plenty of times: We are going to hit deflation when QE fails, and then we can forget about improvements to our unemployment figures - we'll be headed for long-term (decades) stagnation, if Europe stays on its current course.

So what should happen, in your opinion?

syklops

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Deflation means my savings will be worth more right? Huzzah!

Things have gone up and up and up in the last few years meaning you can buy less and less. In my non-economically skilled mind, Id murder a bit of deflation.

Jawgap

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

And we'll be in a World Cup quarter final in no time at all!

Well we've already won a Five / Six Nations Rugby Championship - we've not done well in the football - so we're probably at about 1985!

Maximus Alexander

Jawgap wrote: »

Well we've already won a Five / Six Nations Rugby Championship - we've not done well in the football - so we're probably at about 1985!

Excellent, the 90s were a rare auld time! My 30s are gonna be wonderful.

RecordStraight

RecordStraight wrote: »

I'm sorry, we want easy answers and a government to blame. Take your fancy book-learning talk elsewhere.

Quote of After Hours, right here.

KomradeBishop

Valetta wrote: »

You state that as fact, which it is not.

Without QE, there is nothing left to stoke inflation, so that we can avoid deflation - not without major policy changes in Europe; that is a fact, as evidenced by our recent slip into deflation prior to QE.

QE also puts barely any money into the real economy, it just pumps money into bank reserves - banks which can't lend much more of it out, because there is already too much private debt - so the money is used to inflate asset prices instead (and finance + the wealthy hold a predominant share of assets, effectively making QE a subsidy to finance and the wealthy); these are facts.

The only thing in question, is whether or not QE will fail to keep on stoking inflation - which, given that it barely puts any money into the real economy, makes it seem fairly obvious that it will fail - and there is plenty of commentary by economists and financial writers, regarding it as unlikely to work in the long run:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/01/10/the-ecbs-qe-too-little-too-late/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/02/ed-harrison-quantitative-easing-negative-interest-rates-will-fail.html
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/economists-say-ecb-plan-to-revive-economy-will-fail-1.2055177

KomradeBishop

jimgoose wrote: »

I find it difficult to disagree, while the EU continues to scrabble for fiscal solutions to a monetary problem, and looking at each other in disbelief when that keeps not working! :pac:

Well, there's one fiscal solution that could actually work Funding fiscal spending at a central-EU level, with central-EU debt (bonds with interest rates as low as Germany, for the whole of Europe).

That's effectively what Greek Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis, suggested in his Modest Proposal - a fiscal boost like that is the only thing left that can properly avoid deflation, and save the Euro.

keithclancy

ringadingding wrote: »

I'm just about to move my family back from Vienna.
I think Ireland is an amazing little country, not without it faults.
But where is.
Austria for example, it has the perfect functioning infrastructure , yet the people act like spoilt brats, miserable and tantrums if a bus is 2 minutes late, making everybody miserable.

I know the faults of Ireland, and after travelling around a good bit, I can tell you that we should be bloody proud of our country.

And I'm delighted to be moving my family back.

* I'm poking my head in the sand a bit over Dublin rental prices though :-)*

I don't think you take public transport very far then.

2 minute delay in the Netherlands for example can cost you an hour, many people would take 2 or 3 trains to get to Work.

In Ireland people just drive a car instead.

KomradeBishop

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Deflation means my savings will be worth more right? Huzzah!

While making the burden of debts grow over time - in a European economy already overburdened with excessive public/private debt...

Again, you won't find any reputable economists, supporting deflation as a good thing - it's widely regarded as a nightmare situation, that economists should do everything to avoid.

Gits_bone

They did well to beat the UAE in the end though.

Maximus Alexander

KomradeBishop wrote: »

While making the burden of debts grow over time - in a European economy already overburdened with excessive public/private debt...

Again, you won't find any reputable economists, supporting deflation as a good thing - it's widely regarded as a nightmare situation, that economists should do everything to avoid.

But like, it'll be good for me personally if I have savings and no debt right?

Iwasfrozen

ringadingding wrote: »

I'm just about to move my family back from Vienna.
I think Ireland is an amazing little country, not without it faults.
But where is.
Austria for example, it has the perfect functioning infrastructure , yet the people act like spoilt brats, miserable and tantrums if a bus is 2 minutes late, making everybody miserable.

I know the faults of Ireland, and after travelling around a good bit, I can tell you that we should be bloody proud of our country.

And I'm delighted to be moving my family back.

* I'm poking my head in the sand a bit over Dublin rental prices though :-)*

If the bus is two minutes late it's not running perfectly.

chrissb8

Everything has its time and small towns and communities are unfortunately on the front line in regards to that notion. Over reliance on same industries, small populations, internet, globalization have been the main causes. I think anyone who stays in these towns or villages are the exception to the rule now. How they have survived this long is beyond me. If anything Ireland should be setting up more urban centers in order to cater to the growing educated work force. Sad to see such communities go but the trade off is the fact we have a young educated work force with the potential for more MNC'S to come over to Ireland and make use of such a good resource.

the evasion_kid

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

But like, it'll be good for me personally if I have savings and no debt right?

Unless the government decides to take your savings like Greece did,or Argentina who stole the private pensions of its workers,as did bolivia ,as did Hungary and Bulgaria did its own scaled down version in 2011,so did poland....oh wait In 2009, Ireland seized €4bn from its Pension Reserve fund in order to rescue its banks.

Maximus Alexander

the evasion_kid wrote: »

Unless the government decides to take your savings like Greece did,or Argentina who stole the private pensions of its workers,as did bolivia ,as did Hungary and Bulgaria did its own scaled down version in 2011,so did poland....oh wait In 2009, Ireland seized €4bn from its Pension Reserve fund in order to rescue its banks.

My savings is all cash money. Wouldn't trust anyone else with it to be honest.

the evasion_kid

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

My savings is all cash money. Wouldn't trust anyone else with it to be honest.

Smart move I've learned that too

Tony EH

Jawgap wrote: »

......so like the 1980s then?

All we need to do now is win the Eurovision and it really will seem like we've slipped back in time.

Johnny's still around isn't he?

If we do win another Eurovision, I might emigrate myself.

KomradeBishop

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

But like, it'll be good for me personally if I have savings and no debt right?

Not really, because unless Europe takes a big change in course, allowing such deflation to set in will almost certainly result in the end of the Euro (as it would be both politically/economically unsustainable), and your savings being obliterated as we return to the Punt.

Maximus Alexander

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Not really, because unless Europe takes a big change in course, allowing such deflation to set in will almost certainly result in the end of the Euro (as it would be both politically/economically unsustainable), and your savings being obliterated as we return to the Punt.

Fair enough, I'm off to buy a kilo of gold so.

6541

This is a very worthwhile debate and loads of really good points made. I am proud to be Irish, Proud of Ireland but I think we are in real trouble. So I will tell you the local story.

I am from Castlebar the so called capital of Mayo. Dam it this is where An Taoiseach is from. Castlebar is decimated, Its main street has boarded up shops, there is a ring road around it which is falling into disrepair, there are zero jobs, basically the youth have left. There are thousands of Castlebar people in The States, Oz, NZ etc.
Castlebar and Mayo are dying on its knees. It really is last man out turn off the lights.

So are people suggesting that really we all need to move to either Dublin, Cork or Galway ?

Maximus Alexander

6541 wrote: »

So are people suggesting that really we all need to move to either Dublin, Cork or Galway ?

In all honesty, yeah probably. I mean what would you propose as a solution?