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General FPL Chat 2014/15 MOD WARNING POST 1839
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It looks like you have just been unlucky in close captain decisions the only one that stands out is GW18 going with Bony instead of Costa at home to West Ham. A surprising number of your biggest gain captain options were away to Southampton which isn't somewhere you are really going to consider captaining!
Surprising too that Hazard was my best scorer 5 of 9 the weeks before this one, and Sanchez zero. You have to laugh!!
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Of FHFC you bad, bad man. You had to make me look up my captain stats, didn't you
Try this - in the last 5 gameweeks my captains have got me net 14pts - that's an average of 1.4pts when you take out the double factor 
ABSOLUTE KILLER0 -
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manual_man wrote: »Of FHFC you bad, bad man. You had to make me look up my captain stats, didn't you Try this - in the last 5 gameweeks my captains have got me net 14pts - that's an average of 1.4pts when you take out the double factor
ABSOLUTE KILLER
Jaysis I've had 74 from my captains in the last 5 weeks. Just goes to show how crucial it is.0 -
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@ FHFC. Thanks for the mention :cool:
. Looks like I made a reputation out of myself here :pac:... and this post won't change it :pac:.
First. All your bad returns are not complete fail though (e.g. Sanchez GW13 & RVP GW17 since the difference with your best scorer is relatively marginal).
If you look at it from a pure statistical way, I'd say you're changing your captain too often. 7 different captains out of 10 GWs. 3 you used twice. I mean your captains are given only one (max two) chance(s) to shine. Now to get 8 wrong calls out of 10 is bad luck.
My solution? Chosing 1 captain and sticking with him every week. It should increase your captain chances of getting you big returns. And since you kindly spoke of myself I calculated it for yourself from the history you shared with us.. Not sure you'll wish to see it though...
GW12-21 1 captain policy
Haz 72
Sanchez 62
Austin 56 (9 games)
RVP 52
Bony 46 (9 games)
Sterling 36 (9 games)
Kun 26 (4 games)
Did it with your VC options too
Eriksen 56
Silva 48 (6 games)
Costa 40 (9 games)
Considering Kun only had 4 games and Sterling 9, trying to guess the best captain every week by chosing a candidate we all rate (from your choices I don't really see any big gamble) gave you the worst possible return from all the options you considered.
That said. This is a purely theoretical approach which removes completely what we see, feel and think of the players in reality. A few players are consistent enough though to maybe try this "brutal" approach. It has to be noted though that every single option would have outscored what you chose over the last 10 GWs.
But again. You isolated 10 GWs. How did you do in the 11 first ones? If you want to analyse it the fairest way possible you have to take everything into account. You can't isolate a bad run (even if it accounts for half the played season) and try find conclusions about it. As interesting as it can/will be you may miss the full picture. For example, you could have had a great run in the first 11 GWs which would average out your (C) choice luck overall.
If you're interested, here is my captain balance from last year. I tracked it for the whole season (this year the FPL statistico site will do it for me :cool:). Forget about my personal rating system. I listed captain pts (doubled), captain scoring position out of my fielded team and how much my players who did better actually scored.
Again, I don't want to brag about my great ranking last year (1663rd) but to put this file into context it's interesting to compare with.
I had 11 (C) fail out of 38 GWs which is about 30% failure. I didn't list who were my actual (C), (VC) & other better scorers than (C) but what I know is Suarez was default for a big part of the season and when it was not him it was Aguero. But early on (I didn't get Suarez at the earliest possible time though I didn't wait for too long) and late on the season I did change a bit. Beware though that GW1, 31, 34 & 36 were double GWs. My {} stuff was just to differentiate the amount of games played (in a DGW) for players with the same GW return.
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It just seems like bad luck to me FHFC, nothing wrong with the reasoning behind any of those. Iroced's suggestion of sticking with a captain sounds awfully boring to me. I would only do that with a Suarez or Aguero and even then I take it off them every now and then. One of the best feelings in the game is having something like Austin captained for a hat trick. I'll probably be going Kane this coming GW, so steer clear of him ya jinx! 0
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I didn't say it was exciting though, just more efficientZiegler1988 wrote: »It just seems like bad luck to me FHFC, nothing wrong with the reasoning behind any of those. Iroced's suggestion of sticking with a captain sounds awfully boring to me. I would only do that with a Suarez or Aguero and even then I take it off them every now and then. One of the best feelings in the game is having something like Austin captained for a hat trick. I'll probably be going Kane this coming GW, so steer clear of him ya jinx!. Down to FHFC willing to be Mourinho or Guardiola :P.
http://anewpla.net/fpl/ :cool:.Whats that website that gives your captain stats, vc stats, how much points your best captain option each week would have given you etc??0 -
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