Gits_bone wrote: » Where do I get my team number?
fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/XXXX/event-history/21/
FHFC wrote: » Long post warning. Only bother reading if you are interested in captain stats and diagnosing unusual levels of failure!! Right lads, as many of you know I've been moaning a bit, hopefully not too much, about my awful run of captain choices stretching to over 1/4 of a season at this stage. So this post is not to moan further, I just wanted to look at it a bit and see is it just bad luck, or am I looking at the captain choice decision is some fundamentally wrong way. I'm not picking attempted 'differential' captains, generally picking from the few genuine contenders each week, but somehow managing to pick my way carefully around their big scores and hit their blanks. It is surely statistically improbable at this stage. Ideally Iroced will do some in depth analysis of these figures and point out the problem and I'll fly it to the end of the season. Also wondering if anyone else has a similar run of this duration. Here are my stats, laid out as GW / Captain (pts) / VC (pts) / Best scoring player* (pts) / gain if I'd captained vice / gain if I'd captained Best. *excluding defenders and Gks who'd never really be captain options for me GW.............C.................VC.............BEST........VC GAIN...BEST GAIN Gw12......Aguero (2).....Costa (6).....Haz (11)..........9............ 9 Gw13......Sanchez (3)...Costa (1)...Kun/Bony (7).....-2........... 4 Gw14......RVP (2).........Hazard (9).....Aguero (16)....7........... 14 Gw15......Aguero (1).....hazard (2).....RVP (13)........1........... 12 Gw16......Hazard (14)......RVP. (11).....Haz (14).......-3........... 0 Gw17......RVP.... (2).....Eriksen (1).....Haz (7)..........-1........... 5 Gw18......bony. (2)........RVP.. (7).....Costa (11)........5............9 Gw19......Austin (2).....Silva (6)........Haz (10)...........4...........8 Gw20......Sterling (5).....Silva (2)......Haz (7)...........-3............2 Gw21......Hazard (3).....Costa (6).....Sanchez (19).....3............16 Totals...............36.............51..................115..........15...........79 Things that jump out at me are.. The only week I can blame a very stupid call was 14, when I switched the c from Aguero last minute (which is why Hazard is still VC and not Aguero) The rest I feel are all valid calls, but RVP is a great example of picking the bad weeks and missing the good ones. Even with Hazard's haul I have averaged 3.6 points per week from my captains for ten weeks now. My VC choices are woeful as well, would only be 15 better off had I gone with VC ever week! Excluding the Hazard success week 16 not one other week was my captain OR vice the highest scoring player. I've been very lucky to maintain a good ranking as most weeks the rest of my team have performed really well, it's been a low scoring week overall anyway, or John Terry has as scored a goal. How am I missing the target so consistently? Is it bad luck or am I doing something basically wrong!? Or is this not that unusual and should I just suck it up and get on with it?
FHFC wrote: » Long post warning. Only bother reading if you are interested in captain stats and diagnosing unusual levels of failure!! How am I missing the target so consistently? Is it bad luck or am I doing something basically wrong!? Or is this not that unusual and should I just suck it up and get on with it?
jimmii wrote: » It looks like you have just been unlucky in close captain decisions the only one that stands out is GW18 going with Bony instead of Costa at home to West Ham. A surprising number of your biggest gain captain options were away to Southampton which isn't somewhere you are really going to consider captaining!
FHFC wrote: » Surprising too that Hazard was my best scorer 5 of 9 the weeks before this one, and Sanchez zero. You have to laugh!!
jimmii wrote: » And 4 of the previous 5 harsh! All that really says though is er wtf you don't have Austin OR Kane?!
manual_man wrote: » Of FHFC you bad, bad man. You had to make me look up my captain stats, didn't you Try this - in the last 5 gameweeks my captains have got me net 14pts - that's an average of 1.4pts when you take out the double factor ABSOLUTE KILLER
qwabercd wrote: » Jaysis I've had 74 from my captains in the last 5 weeks. Just goes to show how crucial it is.
manual_man wrote: » Ok I'm getting into serious masochistic territory now - what position would 1206pts have you at currently? This is where id be if I'd likewise got 74pts out of those 5 weeks
OneColdHand wrote: » ~8k
CSF wrote: » Exact same here. Guessing you've gone Toure, Costa, Silva, Sterling, Costa too?
Ziegler1988 wrote: » It just seems like bad luck to me FHFC, nothing wrong with the reasoning behind any of those. Iroced's suggestion of sticking with a captain sounds awfully boring to me . I would only do that with a Suarez or Aguero and even then I take it off them every now and then. One of the best feelings in the game is having something like Austin captained for a hat trick. I'll probably be going Kane this coming GW, so steer clear of him ya jinx!
G1032 wrote: » Whats that website that gives your captain stats, vc stats, how much points your best captain option each week would have given you etc??
iroced wrote: » http://anewpla.net/fpl/ :cool:.
Earthhorse wrote: » It just looks like bad luck on the surface. Having said that I tend to believe sticking with a captain is the best strategy unless there is an obvious reason to change e.g. Stick it on Hazard full time but if he has a tough away fixture and Sanchez has an easy home fixture give it to him.
iroced wrote: » If you look at it from a pure statistical way, I'd say you're changing your captain too often. 7 different captains out of 10 GWs. 3 you used twice. I mean your captains are given only one (max two) chance(s) to shine. Now to get 8 wrong calls out of 10 is bad luck. My solution? Chosing 1 captain and sticking with him every week. It should increase your captain chances of getting you big returns.
manual_man wrote: » Lmfao. 57,252 is my current ranking
AdpRo wrote: » I think FHFC is not counting double points when he was looking at his and you are counting double so not quite a correct comparison. However FHFC you are in teh top 1k so must have had the correct captain choice more often than not in the first 12 GW's, probably got Costa's big scores, in my opinion it's a lot to do with luck. In GW's 12-21 I've gotten 74 (not including the double) to your 36 however I am over 100 pts behind you overall, I missed out on Costa's big hauls early due to taking him out when he was supposed to be injuried. All swings and roundabouts. Just compared my first 21 weeks captains last year to this year, I managed 51 points more last year mainly due to Suarez, it's alot more difficult this year with captain choices because he was the default choice!
OneColdHand wrote: » You can't think of it like that though. So many if's and but's in this game.
