The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

maquiladora · 07-11-2014 03:12PM

Iancar29 wrote: »

Arctic Oscillation forecast showing a nice negative trend :cool:

Only a few members going back positive. Haven't seen that before today.

diceyd · 07-11-2014 03:23PM

Tv3 weather girl was in tescos,i overheard her sayin theres a very good chance of a lot of snow

hatrickpatrick · 07-11-2014 03:24PM

Well this is a first, the end of the ECM run is actually still showing the disintegrating PV and the Greenland pressure rise, while the GFS has retreated from that. O_o

maquiladora · 07-11-2014 03:29PM

spoonerhead wrote: »

The last time I have seen this confidence about snow in November was 2010, I'm actually confident we will get a decent cold spell this winter. (I'm so confident I'm posting on a snow thread for the first time in 3 years).

I don't think there is any confidence in cold for Ireland. There is growing confidence for a significant pattern change over the northern hemisphere, a type of setup that could lead to cold, but could easily lead to it going elsewhere, that's all.

esposito · 07-11-2014 03:33PM

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't think there is any confidence in cold for Ireland. There is growing confidence for a significant pattern change over the northern hemisphere, a type of setup that could lead to cold, but could easily leasd to it going elsewhere, that's all.

Still, at least the signs are good. It may just happen this winter. Exciting times indeed.

Iancar29 · 07-11-2014 04:29PM

diceyd wrote: »

Tv3 weather girl was in tescos,i overheard her sayin theres a very good chance of a lot of snow

You may as well be reading the daily mail listening to her tbh , the majority of the regulars on here know more about meteorology than the "weather team" on Tv3

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't think there is any confidence in cold for Ireland. There is growing confidence for a significant pattern change over the northern hemisphere, a type of setup that could lead to cold, but could easily lead to it going elsewhere, that's all.

Totally agree... nothing that I've seen has shown the S*ow setup for us , more so the pattern to get a nice cold pooling setup started to our NE

Liberalbrehon · 07-11-2014 04:33PM

diceyd wrote: »

Tv3 weather girl was in tescos,i overheard her sayin theres a very good chance of a lot of snow

She was probably talking about the other white stuff

Lucreto · 07-11-2014 04:46PM

You are getting me hyped up for snow. Please stop.

I expect again most of the northern latitudes will be white while Ireland will be green on the satellite maps.

Tabnabs · 07-11-2014 04:49PM

We'll be back to this soon enough:

Larbre34 · 07-11-2014 05:20PM

Lucreto wrote: »

You are getting me hyped up for snow. Please stop.

I expect again most of the northern latitudes will be white while Ireland will be green on the satellite maps.

No, just Waterford.

LordNorbury · 07-11-2014 05:30PM

I think I just saw a bit of GRAUPEL!!! :D:D

snowstorm445 · 07-11-2014 05:34PM

Models not as keen today on a major cold snap hitting Ireland just yet, but the building blocks are still there. Again, this is to be expected. Seeing such quality synoptics this early in the year is an excellent sign anyway, regardless of whether it is consistent or not. We may just have to with that little bit longer.

snowstorm445 · 07-11-2014 05:50PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

No, just Waterford.

Lovely bit of snowless green there down in West Cork.

"Shnow? What shnow? No shnow here atall, bai!"

hatrickpatrick · 07-11-2014 07:10PM

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Models not as keen today on a major cold snap hitting Ireland just yet, but the building blocks are still there.

Terrible pun

snowstorm445 · 07-11-2014 07:40PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Terrible pun

*Guffaw* :pac:

Oneiric 3 · 07-11-2014 10:54PM

Generated a quick table (whatever a 'quick table' is) listing the 10 most negative Novembers - in terms of the mean NAO - since 1966. Included are the corresponding mean anomalies for a few other monthly indices:

At face value, many of these negative NAO Novembers seem to be followed by pretty variable Winters, with both very mild & very cold spells contained within them. But that in itself may not mean anything regarding this coming winter as that would be the standard norm anyway in an average Irish Winter.

We'll see anyways.. :cool:

All data from NOAA

barney 20v · 07-11-2014 11:34PM

Jaaayzusss lads you've started your " building blocks" posts early this year!

Smidge · 08-11-2014 03:00AM

Tabnabs wrote: »

We'll be back to this soon enough:

I've already ordered my supply of F5 buttons.

kstand · 08-11-2014 10:16AM

"Building blocks" mentioned on the 7th of November. Has to be a record.

rickdangerouss · 08-11-2014 10:18AM

The trending from the Stratosphere watch over on netweather and the OPI makes me think it could be a good winter for the S worrd.

Results of the OPI should be release on Monday. Check the website, will be released in English, Italian, French.

Trends is my friend this year.

space2ground1 · 08-11-2014 10:27AM

Newbie question! Was the November 2010 event a surprise to the experts or did the trends in October or earlier indicate something special was on the way?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 08-11-2014 10:28AM

space2ground1 wrote: »

Newbie question! Was the November 2010 event a surprise to the experts or did the trends in October or earlier indicate something special was on the way?

As far as i remember we knew it was coming a good bit before

lucernarian · 08-11-2014 10:48AM

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

As far as i remember we knew it was coming a good bit before

There was a healthy amount of temptations from the models and hints and signs and so on but iirc the spell was delayed by a day or two from initial medium range forecasts, which initially indicated an arrival on 26th and this inspired much skepticism (myself included).

The other thing was the synoptics after the 29th of November were jaw-dropping at times and such conditions do not come together every decade or even every century. Generally there was a lot of snow but the severity of the synopsis should have produced something much more intense than 1982 for snowfall. Just one event, the migration of the primary part of the polar vortex to ireland last happened in 1956 I think. That doesn't even include the severity of the initial NE airflow at the end of nov (comparable with 1987) and the troughs circulating around ireland in the run up to christmas. I'd say it snowed more in the Irish sea than it did in Dublin city.

maquiladora · 08-11-2014 11:01AM

space2ground1 wrote: »

Newbie question! Was the November 2010 event a surprise to the experts or did the trends in October or earlier indicate something special was on the way?

Interesting charts first started to appear out in FI on the GFS around Nov 8th or 9th I think.
It wasn't a surprise, neither was 2009. Events like that feature hemispherical changes that take time to evolve and are so large that models can pick up on them quite early.

hatrickpatrick · 08-11-2014 11:24AM

lucernarian wrote: »

There was a healthy amount of temptations from the models and hints and signs and so on but iirc the spell was delayed by a day or two from initial medium range forecasts, which initially indicated an arrival on 26th and this inspired much skepticism (myself included).

That's right, as far as I remember it wasn't until the Nov 30 / Dec 1 that things really started to take off, and wasn't until some time in the middle of the first week of December that Dublin was properly buried in snow. And a lot of people at the time (I wasn't really active on this forum so can't comment, but on Wunderground and elsewhere) lost faith in forecasting and models when it took those few days longer than had been anticipated.

Calibos · 08-11-2014 12:05PM

IIRC the snow train did indeed start on the night of the 26th in Bray. ie. a single snow train streaming in off the Irish Sea aimed directly at Bray. We got about 4 inches from it. I was peeved thereafter though because that was Brays lot for the next 2 weeks for the most part except for a half inch top up now and then. All subsequent snow-streamers till the 16th of December pretty much missed us. Areas that had to wait till 30th Nov for their first snow rapidly overtook Brays snow amounts. We even had a thaw to nothing down near the seafront between the 6th and 16th Dec. I developed a deep and abiding hatred for the Isle of Man that Winter.

hatrickpatrick · 08-11-2014 12:12PM

End ECM charts are now showing an Atlantic block developing directly over us... Hopefully this shifts significantly by the time the charts leave FI.

Calibos · 08-11-2014 12:26PM

I'd say after such a long warm Summer stretching into October means that SST's this year will be higher than in Nov 2010. Thunder Snow!!!

xXxkorixXx · 08-11-2014 12:41PM

Can u find these EMC charts on google or the ones that change every minute. The one with the colours? Where can I find them to have a look? Or could someone so kindly post them on here

hatrickpatrick · 08-11-2014 12:45PM

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

Can u find these EMC charts on google or the ones that change every minute. The one with the colours? Where can I find them to have a look? Or could someone so kindly post them on here

The most popular ones are on www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php and also www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf .

If you want the birdseye view of the entire northern hemisphere as opposed to the Europe chart, click the button which says "cartes N Hemi" in the list of links above the chart.

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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