The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Its Only Ray Parlour · 05-11-2014 07:54PM

It was 10*C this afternoon and I was slightly sweating in that sunshine when I went for a walk. I would be worried about the snow melting if the temperatures weren't low enough.

snowstorm445 · 05-11-2014 08:02PM

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Mild weather stretching into next week.....

You can literally hear the tedium oozing from this post.

MidMan25 · 05-11-2014 08:04PM

Lucreto wrote: »

BBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO:mad:

I was looking at last year hoping they were miles off

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

They were not:(

Both forecasts are fairly nondescript

Wouldn't read much into them.

xXxkorixXx · 05-11-2014 08:17PM

Your right MidMan25 nobody knows what going to happen.

Frank Lee Midere · 06-11-2014 06:46PM

I'm putting the gloves away.

elecktras weather bomb · 06-11-2014 08:17PM

Winter has not even got going yet regardless of what may come and go. people that put the dampners on winter before its even started first week in November fair play to you for being so well educated. I for one am having a great time watching all the models and learning curves that go with it and the thrill of the chase, so anyone posting winter is over is very daunting and confusing for a newbie like me.
there is a trend there for colder...so you may need your gloves yet regardless of whether it brings a flake or not. try not get caught up on things till they are even coming into the reliable time frame that's what I have learnt being a lurker.

jamo2oo9 · 06-11-2014 08:50PM

Keith Barry predicts that we will have the heaviest snowfall in Ireland in history.

That's good enough for me lads :P

maquiladora · 06-11-2014 08:58PM

I thought the Keith Barry stuff was a Boards joke until I looked at facebook...

wexie · 06-11-2014 09:08PM

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

Keith Barry predicts that we will have the heaviest snowfall in Ireland in history.

That's good enough for me lads :P

If that's going to come true we're going to want to get preparing, if it's worse than the Great Frost of 1740 we'll be in trouble.

Lucreto · 06-11-2014 09:51PM

I saw in in the Irish Mirror page this morning

The poll at the bottom defies my opinion of humanity.

Will Keith Barry's predictions come true?

Yes 72% - 28% No.

Fiskar · 06-11-2014 10:32PM

Thresholds being set for school closures due to snow

http://bringmethenews.com/2014/11/05/cold-logic-st-paul-schools-set-threshold-for-winter-closures/

In Minnesota !

davidsr20 · 06-11-2014 10:34PM

Anyone explain this cause mt doesn't think so as far as I'm aware.

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html

HighLine · 06-11-2014 10:44PM

davidsr20 wrote: »

Anyone explain this cause mt doesn't think so as far as I'm aware.

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html

No one can explain it because no one knows what the weather will be like in a few months. Long range forecasting is akin to looking into a crystal ball.

Blizzard 2010 · 06-11-2014 11:02PM

HighLine wrote: »

No one can explain it because no one knows what the weather will be like in a few months. Long range forecasting is akin to looking into a crystal ball.

Courtesy of Mr Madden. He could be right

snowstorm445 · 06-11-2014 11:03PM

Some seriously cold synoptics showing up on the GFS parallel run at the moment. Major blocking to our north, cold pool filtering down over Europe.

Its FI of course and will probably be gone by morning but obviously the signs are positive across the board atm, patience is required though. It could be several weeks before any of this materialises. Lots of potential further down the line.

maquiladora · 06-11-2014 11:18PM

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Some seriously cold synoptics showing up on the GFS parallel run at the moment. Major blocking to our north, cold pool filtering down over Europe.

Its FI of course and will probably be gone by morning but obviously the signs are positive across the board atm, patience is required though. It could be several weeks before any of this materialises. Lots of potential further down the line.

A long way off but a weakening/splitting of the polar vortex has been on the cards for the past few days now so I wouldn't be surprised if it actually happened. The thing to remember is that when the cold air spreads down to the mid-latitudes, it doesn't happen evenly, some areas get cold, some areas don't. Ireland is a very small place so even if the polar vortex gets nuked from orbit, those lobes could still end up spreading out to North America or central Eurasia etc. and we have to be lucky to be in the right spot so that the cold air heads our direction, as happened in late Nov '10. But we can very easily end up in the "wrong" place.

ninebeanrows · 06-11-2014 11:49PM

I think people must play the long game at the moment, the synoptics unfolding are actually beautiful, the polar vortex is struggling and is being broken into 3 or 4 segments. Comparing the NH profile from this year to last is telling. Whether Ireland and the UK manage to get a direct, deep and prolonged Arctic outbreak is uncertain. But at this early stage I would be confident that we will get a sig. cold spell at some stage.

If this year does see exceptional cold across mid-latitudes it will be the year that changes future winter forecasting forever. The OPI and snow indices have not been tested enough to receive recognition from Scientists but this year would be a milestone where we have a tangible predictor of conditions in the coming 2-3 months.

Interesting times ahead.

Larbre34 · 07-11-2014 11:46AM

At the other end of the spectrum, Keith Barry had a series of premonitions on Wednesday night.

Among them, "Ireland will have the heaviest snowfall in history this Christmas."

He is flagging his foretelling of the Buncefield Oil Terminal explosion to show his credentials.

By "heaviest snowfall in history", I presumes he means Irish history, or we are looking at 11 metres (34 ft) of snow for Crimbo, which may just cure the snowbunnies for good

dave1982 · 07-11-2014 12:55PM

I say Keith had some "snow" himself

wexie · 07-11-2014 01:28PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

I presumes he means Irish history, or we are looking at 11 metres (34 ft) of snow for Crimbo,

I think that could prove to be 'somewhat' problematic

force eleven · 07-11-2014 01:37PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

At the other end of the spectrum, Keith Barry had a series of premonitions on Wednesday night.

Among them, "Ireland will have the heaviest snowfall in history this Christmas."

He is flagging his foretelling of the Buncefield Oil Terminal explosion to show his credentials.

By "heaviest snowfall in history", I presumes he means Irish history, or we are looking at 11 metres (34 ft) of snow for Crimbo, which may just cure the snowbunnies for good

Personally I much prefer the Donegal Postmans's premonitions. Unless Keith has had a priveleged look at the Hirlam +1218 hr chart, I wouldn't be rushing of to Woodies for the gritting salt n' shovels just yet...:rolleyes:

leahyl · 07-11-2014 01:56PM

You should have heard the conversation around the table at lunch in work today...one of my colleagues said that "everyone is saying, Met Eireann and everyone, that it's going to be the worst winter in 300 years"....oh how I had to bite my tongue....:mad:

Newtown90 · 07-11-2014 02:24PM

leahyl wrote: »

You should have heard the conversation around the table at lunch in work today...one of my colleagues said that "everyone is saying, Met Eireann and everyone, that it's going to be the worst winter in 300 years"....oh how I had to bite my tongue....:mad:

I feel your pain! No point in trying to explain!

07-11-2014 02:27PM

Glenviewjf wrote: »

I feel your pain! No point in trying to explain!

yeah worst winter in 300 years for fur coats and duffel sales!!!!

Mr_Red · 07-11-2014 02:28PM

Please let there be snow

mrbrianj · 07-11-2014 02:30PM

force eleven wrote: »

Personally I much prefer the Donegal Postmans's premonitions. Unless Keith has had a priveleged look at the Hirlam +1218 hr chart, I wouldn't be rushing of to Woodies for the gritting salt n' shovels just yet...:rolleyes:

11m of Snow - forget woodies, go to O'Briens for whiskey and get a heap of coal in the garage on the way home!

Agreed about the Donegal posty. After listening to everybody telling how bad a winter we are going to have, at this stage I'd prefer a forecast from An Post rather than Met Eireann:)

maquiladora · 07-11-2014 02:39PM

Didn't the postman predict "plenty of snow before Christmas" or something last year?

I'll stick with the 12Z K BARRY model.

Iancar29 · 07-11-2014 02:50PM

Arctic Oscillation forecast showing a nice negative trend :cool:

ao.sprd2.gif

spoonerhead · 07-11-2014 03:09PM

The last time I have seen this promise in November was 2010, I'm actually confident we will get a decent cold spell this winter. (I'm so confident I'm posting on a snow thread for the first time in 3 years).

spoonerhead · 07-11-2014 03:10PM

The last time I have seen this confidence about snow in November was 2010, I'm actually confident we will get a decent cold spell this winter. (I'm so confident I'm posting on a snow thread for the first time in 3 years).

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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