Worst to first, zero to hero

HigginsJ · 03-08-2013 11:16pm

I failed badly at this last year tipping Chiefs to turn it around and had a pop at people tipping the Skins for the NFC east.

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (5-11)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
NFC North: Detroit Lions (4-12)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

I didn't like the Browns draft so I can't see them doing it this year. It's hard to see any of these turning it around. The Chiefs are an obvious selection but ill go with the Buffalo Bills to go worst to first.

D3PO · 03-08-2013 11:37pm

HigginsJ wrote: »

I failed badly at this last year tipping Chiefs to turn it around and had a pop at people tipping the Skins for the NFC east.

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (5-11)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
NFC North: Detroit Lions (4-12)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

I didn't like the Browns draft so I can't see them doing it this year. It's hard to see any of these turning it around. The Chiefs are an obvious selection but ill go with the Buffalo Bills to go worst to first.

Tampa have a great chance I liked their draft and Revis added will make a big difference too.

Kansas have a real chance of last to first too and the Eagles were much better than they played last year and have a chance to.

For me one or multiple of these 3 will win their divisions.

eagle eye · 03-08-2013 11:53pm

I didn't buy into the Kansas thing last year, went for Bucs over Colts.

This year I'll go for Andy Reid and the Chiefs over his old team and Chip Kelly. I expect both of them to do well but Reid for me is one of the best coaches in the NFL. I think he does better with the Chiefs than he did with the Eagles.

theRB · 04-08-2013 12:55am

1. Tampa Bay- They have a real shot if Freeman has a decent season. I like Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson on offense and their secondary is phenomenal.
2. Cleveland- Their defense is decent and Trent Richardson has potential. I think they're probably the worst team in the division but not far off Pittsburgh and I don't like the Ravens receivers situation. Cincinnati should win the division but if Dalton can't produce Cleveland have a shot.
3. Philidelphia- Unlikely but they have a lot of players who, in theory, could be very productive. They're so unpredictable I'd say they have a small chance.
4. Buffalo- Patriots could be weaker than in the past this season with their receiver issues and I don't like their defense. If EJ Manuel works out well Buffalo have a chance albeit a small one.

I'd be surprised if Jacksonville weren't last in their division. Kansas will finish ahead of Oakland but can't see them finishing ahead of San Diego or Denver. Can't see Detroit finishing ahead of the Packers in any scenario. Arizona have absolutely no chance.

UnitedIrishman · 20-08-2013 12:34pm

Been looking at this stat over the last couple days and the one thing that is prevalent in all of the last ten seasons is the fact that the year before they were 'worst' in their division, the team had a relatively decent season. 8 of the 13 sides who bucked the trend had a win % of 50% or more two years previously whilst all had won at least 6 games two years previously.

The reasons I bring this up is that it shows that teams who are consistently bad have rarely bucked the trend, but sides who maybe had a tougher schedule last year due to their relatively good finishing position the season before, or suffered a key injury to their QB etc. for a season are the sides to look out for.

If you were using this as a basis to make your choice you'd be down to Kansas, Arizona, Detroit and the Eagles.

The Bills, Jags and Jets have showed little sign of bucking their trend of being losing sides, Tampa are on the upgrade but in a fiercely competitive division and the Browns, despite some positive signs, have been 3rd or 4th the last 5 years.

Of the four left Kansas are 7/1, Eagles are 10/3, Lions 6/1, Cardinals 40/1 - to win their respective divisions. The Cardinals are in a seriously tough division and I just can't see it happening against the 49ers or Seahawks and the Lions have a tough enough schedule this season despite going close in a lot of their games last year.

I have the Eagles and Kansas possibly winning 9-10 games, which could be enough to win the NFC East for the Eagles but might not be enough for Kansas to outdo Denver to win the division.

So after that longwinded answer, I'm backing the Eagles to go from worst to first.

Paully D · 11-11-2013 11:45pm

Paully D wrote: »

I'd go with the Eagles as having the best chance. The NFC East is such a close division with not much between the teams in terms of talent (bookies odds reflect this, with the Redskins favourites at 2/1, Cowboys 13/5, Redskins 11/4 and Eagles 4/1) and Chip Kelly's offense will have the element of surprise this year especially which could catch plenty of teams on the hop.

Next best for me would be the Chiefs. Top running game, a workable quarterback and a good D, but I do expect the Broncos to win the division.

The third best chance would be the Bucs. They will have a seriously improved defense this year, potentially one of the best in the league if everything goes right, but as Matthew has said being in Atlanta's division makes it tough.

A lot of people will fancy the Lions to do this, but I think their coaching (and discipline issues) stops them from being anywhere near as good as they could be and I don't think Green Bay will have the down year which would be required.

Jaguars, Browns, Bills and Cardinals have about as much chance as me waking up beside Mila Kunis tomorrow morning.

So, IMO:

1) Eagles
2) Chiefs
3) Bucs

4) Lions

5) Jaguars, Browns, Bills, Cardinals

How are people feeling about their picks so far then now that we're coming to the business end of the season?

Eagles and Chiefs are giving me a good run, although I do still expect the Broncos to win that division.

I was horrendously wrong about the Buccaneers and the Lions could profit big time from Rodgers' injury. I read today that they have the easiest schedule during the run-in on paper too.

So it looks like the 8 year (and 10 of the last 11 years) trend of a team coming from bottom of their division to winning it has a great chance of happening once again, with the Eagles, Chiefs and Lions all in with a cracking chance.

mikemac1 · 12-11-2013 7:32am

It's a longer streak then that Paully. ^^^^

10 years in a row and 12 of the last 13

Paully D wrote: »

How are people feeling about their picks so far then now that we're coming to the business end of the season?

My prediction was the Lions and they lead the NFC North

Paully D · 30-12-2013 5:23am

The Eagles it is.

mikemac1 · 30-12-2013 9:26am

The streak continues!

UnitedIrishman · 30-12-2013 12:05pm

Somehow I got my prediction spot on! :pac:

Pity it happens about once in a blue moon.

mikemac1 · 26-08-2014 5:04pm

That time of year again!

This thread has been going 3 seasons and the streak is still alive

For 11 years in a row and 13 out of the last 14 a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

Below are the last place finishers from last season.

Who do you think has the best chance at winning their division and going zero to hero?

***********************************************
EDIT: Falcons & Bucs had the same record and both are now added!

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (4-12)
AFC South: Houston Texans (2-14)
AFC West: Oakland Raiders (4-12)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (3-13)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (5-12-1)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) / Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
NFC West: St Louis Rams (7-9)

matthew8 · 26-08-2014 5:12pm

Texans are the most obvious choice, Redskins have a chance too and Browns can't be counted out in a bad division.

HigginsJ · 26-08-2014 5:44pm

I will go with the Vikings or the Bucs. If Bridgewater was starting for the Vikes they would have a great shot I reckon.

It is probably said all the time but it is hard to see any of these teams realistically doing it.

madalig12 · 26-08-2014 7:39pm

Im sticking with...no team will do this this year.

adrian522 · 26-08-2014 8:14pm

I'd have to go with the Redskins, that division is a crapshoot and anyone could win it, if RG3 is a little less terrible than Romo or Eli they have a chance.

Hazys · 26-08-2014 8:20pm

Redskins D is awful but i think they can overcome that in a weak division and finish 2nd behind the Eagles.

Guffy · 26-08-2014 8:32pm

Wow... I can't really see it this year.

texans obv choice but gona tip the browns I think.

mikemac1 · 26-08-2014 9:31pm

I'm going to go with the Vikings

Mike Zimmer will sort out that D and Norv Turner will get the offence flying. Whether its Cassell or Bridgewater who starts I don't really know, maybe both will contribute

Amerika · 26-08-2014 9:54pm

Washington Redskins could have a fine year as they’ve beefed up the WR position, but it all depends if RG III gets back in form. The Atlanta Falcons reached the postseason three consecutive seasons before going 4-12 last year, and have the best chance of worst to first IMO.

Paully D · 26-08-2014 11:04pm

Called the Eagles correctly last year.

I'll go for the Redskins this year. As Adrian has mentioned, the NFC East is a crapshoot and I wouldn't be confident on calling any team to win it. That's the main reason I went for the Eagles last year too. With RGIII back properly fit, they have almost as good a chance as any of the teams in the division despite their obvious deficiencies. They're the same odds with the bookies as the Eagles were last year. I don't know if they can do it but I'd give them the best shot.

I'm a big fan of the Vikings' potential but I think if Rodgers stays healthy he gives the Packers the win in that division this year. Perhaps a year or two too early for the Vikings.

Texans D is very good, they've also got a couple of weapons on O, but they lack where it really counts at the QB position and I'm not high on them in many parts of the field. I think the Colts take that division and could see the Jags frightening the Texans too.

Buccaneers should be hugely improved under Lovie but the Saints are genuine Super Bowl contenders there and will be extremely hard to finish ahead of IMO.

I'll go:

1) Redskins
2) Vikings
3) Buccaneers
4) Texans

I'm struggling to split which one of the Vikings and Buccaneers should be 2nd or 3rd.

I can't see the others, including the Browns, coming close.

mikemac1 · 27-08-2014 6:30am

madalig12 wrote: »

None of the above will do it this year:eek:

madalig12 wrote: »

Im sticking with...no team will do this this year.

Don't question the streak. The streak doesn't fail :cool:

kennyb3 · 27-08-2014 9:02am

Think the Vikes will finish bottom of the division. So going to say the Texans. Redskins would be my second choice.

adrian522 · 27-08-2014 9:06am

How come the Buccs are deemed bottom in the NFC South yet Atlanta had the higher draft pick?

kennyb3 · 27-08-2014 9:12am

adrian522 wrote: »

How come the Buccs are deemed bottom in the NFC South yet Atlanta had the higher draft pick?

Conference record over points difference?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/year/2013/seasontype/2

mikemac1 · 27-08-2014 9:16am

I took it from the NFL website, it shows the Bucs at the bottom
http://www.nfl.com/standings?category=div&season=2013-REG&split=Overall

I've now looked elsewhere ESPN show Atlanta at the bottom
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/year/2013/seasontype/2

Ok, I'll put both of them in as they were both 4-12

kennyb3 · 27-08-2014 12:16pm

mikemac1 wrote: »

I'm going to go with the Vikings

Mike Zimmer will sort out that D and Norv Turner will get the offence flying. Whether its Cassell or Bridgewater who starts I don't really know, maybe both will contribute

20/1 at present if you fancy it.

Chardee MacDennis · 27-08-2014 3:03pm

mikemac1 wrote: »

I'm going to go with the Vikings

Mike Zimmer will sort out that D and Norv Turner will get the offence flying. Whether its Cassell or Bridgewater who starts I don't really know, maybe both will contribute

agree with the Vikings myself, also think the Jags could do it but it's a much less likely.

glued · 27-08-2014 3:27pm

We all hear the same rhetoric about the NFC East and now the word 'crapshoot' can be added as a poor description to mass hyperbole surrounding this division. It's all a bit tiring really to hear so many becoming blasé about the division. It's definitely one of the more exciting divisions in the league and it's quality is definitely underestimated. To describe it as a 'crapshoot' too is slanderous, particularly to the Eagles, who were a fine team last season and are arguably a better team despite losing DeSean. With RGIII in his second year of recovery after his ACL you would expect him to be better and with their WR core they should be a pretty talented offence.

adrian522 · 27-08-2014 3:32pm

slanderous? Really. You have 4 teams no better than 9-7. Any of them could conceivably win the division, any of them could finish bottom.

Crap shoot seems a pretty apt description. I'll take my chances on getting sued for slander for using that term.

glued · 27-08-2014 3:52pm

adrian522 wrote: »

slanderous? Really. You have 4 teams no better than 9-7. Any of them could conceivably win the division, any of them could finish bottom.

Crap shoot seems a pretty apt description. I'll take my chances on getting sued for slander for using that term.

Don't worry I think the NFL have bigger fish to fry. Do you think that the Eagles could finish bottom? Do you think the Cowboys will win the division? Eagles were 10-6 last season too, Washington the year before. It's a tough division where anyone could beat anyone but the Eagles aren't going to finish last and the Cowboys aren't going to win anything. It's not as tight as everybody would like to make out.

Crapshoot is also just a silly Americanism.

Worst to first, zero to hero

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