Worst to first, zero to hero

mikemac

For 8 years in a row and 10 of the last 11, a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

Below are the last place finishers from last season.

Who do you think has the best chance at winning their division and going zero to hero?


AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4-12)
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (6-10)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-12)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (6-10)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-14)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

I think the Cardinals are the obvious choice
Maybe not the Bills :pac:

BaronVon

Yeah, Cardinals would be my shout too.

Hopefully anyway....

stevemac

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4-12) - no
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) - no
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (6-10) -no
AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-12) - no, but possible
NFC East: Washington Redskins (6-10) - nope
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (6-10) - maybe
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-14) - not a hope
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11) - defo a chance

davyjose

mikemac wrote: »

For 8 years in a row and 10 of the last 11, a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

Below are the last place finishers from last season.

Who do you think has the best chance at winning their division and going zero to hero?


AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4-12)
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (6-10)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-12)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (6-10)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-14)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

I think the Cardinals are the obvious choice
Maybe not the Bills :pac:

What's strange too is how 3 of those teams finished 1st the season before.

TaosHum

Cardinals are certainly the best candidates to do so, but Tennessee could be quite dangerous, IF Hasselbeck can last a whole season.

Pherekydes

The Cards weren't that far away, and were winners previously.

Others like the Panthers (dreadful) and the Vikes (Division far too competitive) have little chance, though history shows that that's a dangerous thing to say.

spiralism

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4-12) are you mad?
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) no way
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (6-10) nah
AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-12) could, john fox took a 1-15 panthers team to 7-9 the following year and a narrow defeat in the superbowl the year after, he's got a track record of turnarounds. lot of potential in the team
NFC East: Washington Redskins (6-10) could improve, not that much though
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (6-10) as above
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-14) 8-8 ish
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11) its between them and us to do it, whiz is a very good coach, there's still loads of talent on that team and the quarterback situation isnt absolute garbage this time.

Brennaldo II

Vikings or Cardinals I'd say.

Lionbacker

mikemac wrote: »

For 8 years in a row and 10 of the last 11, a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

Below are the last place finishers from last season.

Who do you think has the best chance at winning their division and going zero to hero?


AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4-12)
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (6-10)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-12)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (6-10)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-14)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

I think the Cardinals are the obvious choice
Maybe not the Bills :pac:

Make that 9 years in a row now!
Well done to the Broncos. Quite a remarkable statisitic thats gone on for such a long time & always seems unlikely to continue before each NFL season begins.

Trippie

Lionbacker wrote: »

Make that 9 years in a row now!
Well done to the Broncos. Quite a remarkable statisitic thats gone on for such a long time & always seems unlikely to continue before each NFL season begins.

next season with peyton back the colts will give it a fair bash too

vinny chase

Lionbacker wrote: »

Make that 9 years in a row now!
Well done to the Broncos. Quite a remarkable statisitic thats gone on for such a long time & always seems unlikely to continue before each NFL season begins.

For me, this statistic isn't actually a freak. It's a testament to how well the draft system and free agency works, in that teams rarely remain terrible for too long, like in a lot of other sports.

Obviously, the salary cap is crucial in this too.

Really hope the Buccs keep this trend going next season.

spiralism

spiralism wrote: »

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4-12) are you mad?
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) no way
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (6-10) nah
AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-12) could, john fox took a 1-15 panthers team to 7-9 the following year and a narrow defeat in the superbowl the year after, he's got a track record of turnarounds. lot of potential in the team
NFC East: Washington Redskins (6-10) could improve, not that much though
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (6-10) as above
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-14) 8-8 ish
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11) its between them and us to do it, whiz is a very good coach, there's still loads of talent on that team and the quarterback situation isnt absolute garbage this time.

I love being right, especially when it's my team.:D

Paully D

vinny chase wrote: »

For me, this statistic isn't actually a freak. It's a testament to how well the draft system and free agency works, in that teams rarely remain terrible for too long, like in a lot of other sports.

Obviously, the salary cap is crucial in this too.

Great point and one of the main reasons I was attracted to the sport.

mikemac1

Time for a huuuuuuuuuge bump

It's that time of year again

Well done to spiralism who correctly predicted the Broncos would go worst to first, zero to hero

For 9 years in a row and 11 of the last 12, a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

I need your predictions!


AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (4-12)
AFC South: Indinapolis Colts (2-14)
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (5-11)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (3-13)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
NFC West: St Louis Rams (2-14)


My prediction is the Chiefs, I like their D and offense and special teams, some great players and a good coaching staff

BigBadRob83

Yeah would have to agree with you Mike, of that sorry lot would have to pick the Chiefs.
Lot of injuries last year and still had shot of winning division.
Can't see any of the others having a realistic chance

Lionbacker

mikemac1 wrote: »

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
AFC South: Indinapolis Colts (2-14)
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (5-11)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (3-13)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
NFC West: St Louis Rams (2-14)

I assume that meant to be the Browns.

Anyway my prediction is Chiefs. That divison is up for grabs with all teams having a good shot at topping it. If the Chiefs can avoid injuries to key players unlike what happened last season, they could do it.
Can also see the Rams and Bills as been outside bets.

matthew8

The Chiefs are the obvious pick, but they have no hope if Manning is Manning. The Redskins have a shot, they really do.

Spongey1975

I'd say the Chiefs, Redskins and Bucs are your best shot. I would have said Bills too and i see them as nearest challengers to Pats but too much of a gap to bridge in one season.

Leslie91

Chiefs

(even if I hope to F it does not happen)

UnitedIrishman

I'd be going with the Chiefs out of those followed by the Redskins and Bucs.

matthew8

Wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs or Redskins won it. If the NFC South regresses into mediocrity and Freeman still has it the Buccs could win it. If Bradford finally has a great season the Rams could win the NFC West. The Bills are probably the best of the last placed teams but I give them very little chance in the same division as the Patriots who have to be first or second favourite for the superbowl. The Vikings seem at least a year away. If the Texans D regresses, Chuck Pagano is as good defensively as he was in Baltimore and Luck has a rookie season for the ages, the Colts could do it. The only team I would completely rule out are the Browns, not because of anything in particular, but because they're the Browns.

eagle eye

Personally I'd be favouring the Bucs over the Colts.

The reason I'll take the Bucs is two pronged. Firstly they have done a nice job putting a real good looking team together. Then you look at the division. I expect the Saints to have an awful year, they will be hearing it from the fans on their travels and with their head coach gone for the year I think things will nosedive for them even with Brees still there.
The Panthers for me needed to strengthen more at WR and they didn't. The Falcons look a serious team and I'd fancy them to win the division but the Bucs could give them a real go for it imo.

Yeah the Colts have lost Manning and a couple of tight ends and receivers but they've put together a pretty decent looking offensive line in front of Luck. They've also picked up Avery and brought in Hilton, to add to Wayne and Collie.
In the RB department they have added Ballard in the draft and brought in Mewelde Moore who I have always liked. Fleener looks like a clone of Dallas Clark almost. I really think it all rests for them on Luck being what we all expect him to be and then the receivers staying healthy.
I really do think they can give it a serious shot. I do realise that they are in a rebuilding phase right now but I won't be surprised to see them have a winning season. For me Luck was always the guy who would have a seamless transition from College ball to NFL and I really do believe he is going to be a member of the elite at this level.

spiralism

Chiefs seem to be everyone's sleeper pick this year and that they'll upset the odds and win the afc west..Manning will have something to say about that if he's at full strength and training camp reports are ominous in that regard. Be warned...

TaosHum

If Fisher can get the offense going, the Rams wil be dangerous.

poldebruin

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10) I can see them improving, but not jumping over the Patriots. Will give Miami and the Jets a run for their money though.
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (4-12) Bottom again for the Browns I feel.
AFC South: Indinapolis Colts (2-14) I think the Colts are in for another long year - 4/5 wins.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) After finishing 1 game out of winning the division, the Chiefs are an easy pick to go from worst to first. I think the West will be as tight as last year, with all teams giving an improved showing. No 8-8 winner here next year.
NFC East: Washington Redskins (5-11) Chiefs aside, the Redskins are my pick as likliest of the bunch to win their division. 9 wins won the division last year and I can see Washington achieve a 9/10 win season
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (3-13) No chance of a division win. A lot will depend on how/if AP's returns, With Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago in the same division I can only see bottom again for the Vikes.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) The Bucc shouldn't be as bad as last year, but I expect Carolina to be improved, while the Falsons and the Saints should remain solid - bottom again for Tampa with 6 wins.
NFC West: St Louis Rams (2-14) I was surprised to see how bad the Rams were last season, even with Bradford out - No chance of a division win though this year.

HigginsJ

If the Bills were in any other division they would be my pick. Think they will make the playoffs but wont topple the Pats.

The Chiefs are obvious pick if Charles, Moeaki and Berry are all fully fit and they'll be my selection.

To those tipping the Redskins. Get a grip. If Griffin can get them back to the same mark 5-11 in his rookie season he will be doing well.

poldebruin

HigginsJ wrote: »

To those tipping the Redskins. Get a grip. If Griffin can get them back to the same mark 5-11 in his rookie season he will be doing well.

.... a little strong! I agree, he will have to do/will have done very well, but it's achieveable and no huge leap of imagination required imo. RG3 should be an upgrade over Beck/Grossman, and they went 5-7 in the division last year. The defense needs to do better of course, but I actually feel the defense underachieved last year and should be better this season.

I doubt many are tipping the Redskins to win the division without the caveat that they have to pick from teams that finished last the previous year.

davyjose

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah the Colts have lost Manning and a couple of tight ends and receivers but they've put together a pretty decent looking offensive line in front of Luck. They've also picked up Avery and brought in Hilton, to add to Wayne and Collie.
In the RB department they have added Ballard in the draft and brought in Mewelde Moore who I have always liked. Fleener looks like a clone of Dallas Clark almost. I really think it all rests for them on Luck being what we all expect him to be and then the receivers staying healthy.
I really do think they can give it a serious shot. I do realise that they are in a rebuilding phase right now but I won't be surprised to see them have a winning season. For me Luck was always the guy who would have a seamless transition from College ball to NFL and I really do believe he is going to be a member of the elite at this level.

Nice post Eagle. Problem is the D. It's barely passable as an NFL Defense IMO, and I can see them in the bottom three or four for points, passing yards, and rushing yards allowed.
I do agree the Offense will surprise a lot of people but moving to a 3-4 we have no real playmakers on Defense right now, and we need a big draft next season. Either way it's a win-win, because we either get a high draft position, or a surprisingly competitive season.

davyjose

I see the Bucs and Rams with the best chance of a last to first. Bucs are all around solid, in a division that has been dominated by a now depleted Saints (don't care what anyone says, they'll suffer from their punishments), and Falcons are, to me, a decent team but by no means unbeatable. Panthers, meh! Brees might drag the Saints into a 9/10 win season, but it's a "might". Otherwise, I'll have Tampa bay with, again, a 9/10 division win.

Rams are up against the mediocre seachickens (not a lot of love around here for Seattle teams), and the cardinal's that NEEDED Peyton to even compete, and without him, are not going to trouble anyone of any quality. As for SF, they flattered to deceive. They are not in a million years gonna repeat last years 13-3 season. I'll take anyone on that bet -- with odds. I do think they are better than the Rams, and are a decent team, and will probably take the division, but I'd still give the Rams a teeny, tiny chance (they have the best QB in the division, and I'm a QB man :pac:).

matthew8

davyjose wrote: »

Nice post Eagle. Problem is the D. It's barely passable as an NFL Defense IMO, and I can see them in the bottom three or four for points, passing yards, and rushing yards allowed.
I do agree the Offense will surprise a lot of people but moving to a 3-4 we have no real playmakers on Defense right now, and we need a big draft next season. Either way it's a win-win, because we either get a high draft position, or a surprisingly competitive season.

I think the Colts certainly have a good LB corps, and Chuck Pagano is in my opinion an excellent defensive coach. Expect loads of sacks at the very least.

CoachTO

TaosHum wrote: »

If Fisher can get the offense going, the Rams wil be dangerous.

Rams season hangs on whether or not their Oline is up to the task of protecting their QB.

mikemac1

matthew8 wrote: »

Chuck Pagano is in my opinion an excellent defensive coach.

He certainly is

Colts were very wise to snap him up and give him a contract.

He'll achieve good things in Indy in time

matthew8

The thing with Ravens defensive coordinators is they tend to make awful offensive head coaches. Luckily for Pagano, he may have drafted a guy who will take a lot of the weight off his shoulders.

davyjose

matthew8 wrote: »

I think the Colts certainly have a good LB corps, and Chuck Pagano is in my opinion an excellent defensive coach. Expect loads of sacks at the very least.

Too many gaps though. Hopefully you're right. If so I'll expect 8-8. But, the defense is sparse. Zero depth and the DB's would be second or third stringers on some teams.

TaosHum

CoachTO wrote: »

Rams season hangs on whether or not their Oline is up to the task of protecting their QB.

Guys staying healthy for them will be huge. Jackson, Smith, Bradford, Amendola, Saffold and J. Smith are all coming off injuries or have missed substantial time through injury in the past couple years.

I like the way their defensive is shaping up. Some nice FA additions aswell as good draft picks in Brockers and Jenkins.

FishHook

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (4-12)
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts (2-14)
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (5-11)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (3-13)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
NFC West: St Louis Rams (2-14)

I think the most likely of that bunch to win their division are the Kansas City Chiefs or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are both in tight divisions. I would expect the Rams, Vikings, Redskins and Colts to improve this year. I think the Bills and Browns will come last again in their respective divisions.

JaMarcus Hustle

FishHook wrote: »

I think the Bills and Browns will come last again in their respective divisions.

You think Miami will finish ahead of the Bills?

FishHook

JaMarcus Hustle wrote: »

You think Miami will finish ahead of the Bills?

Yeah, but it will be close. Patriots to win the division again :mad:...I'm a Jets fan.

spiralism

Bills are such a ludicrous pick imo. Pats are looking at at least 12-4 and the division title, so people expecting the famously unlucky/inept bills to make a wildcard are looking at them battling for a wildcard place with one of Cincinnati, Chargers, Kansas and the Broncos at least and ousting all of them. And that's just the safe picks, who knows, Titans and Jets could be in that mix too. Naturally, Baltimore/Pitt will take the other WC spot.

Buffalo will get off the AFC East floor, with Miami replacing them but thats about as far as i expect.

Danger_dave1

spiralism wrote: »

Buffalo will get off the AFC East floor, with Miami replacing them but thats about as far as i expect.

The AFC East face the AFC South and NFC West. The Patriots, Bill's , Jets could all make the play off's

Which team can go from zero to hero ? Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Kansas City Chiefs that could make the biggest leap forward.

Tampa bay (4-12) because no one knows how the Saints will play this season, Do the Falcons improve ? What do Carolina do ? Its an interesting one. I suspect Newton to have a sophomore slump. Not sure about Falcons new offense coordinator could be a good thing who knows. While Tampa Bay have a new head coach, new work ethic and a young talented team .

Kansas City (7-9) Cassel will be fit, Jamal Charles will be fit , Eric Berry will be fit. I think the AFC West will be a very difficult division. The Raiders have Carlson Palmer who will learn the play book with talented receivers and if Mcfadden can stay fit there going to win enough games to keep them in the mix till near the end of the season. The Bronco's have Manning (If he stays fit) Chargers (They still have Norv Turner.... not a good thing)

My reasoning is both divisions will be very competitive. 10 wins in my opinion will be the max needed to win the each division.

Lionbacker

Redskins keep the streak alive, thanks mainly to RG3 & Morris:)
Quite a few people here tipped them too.

mikemac1

Ah my thread
Well the streak is still alive so it'll be bumped again next August



Popular pick KC Chiefs bombed!

kennyb3

None this year imho

LuckyLloyd

kennyb3 wrote: »

None this year imho

Meh, Detroit / Cleveland / Tampa all have potential for a big turnaround imo.

The trend isn't some statistical oddity - it is a product of the very way in which the NFL works.

spiralism

Worth pointing out that 3 of the teams in the NFC south finished 7-9 and level on quite a few tiebreakers. Any one of those 3 could easily rise to the top. Buffalo could with a good coaching change, Detroit could if they got their **** together, Philly with a good coach could turn around fast, there is still a lot of talent on that team... All good teams with minor or coaching flaws. Not counting KC in here, they have a big hole at QB with a weak draft and FA class, as well as front office turmoil.

Way too early to say yet though, good bit left in this season sure!

mikemac1

Huzzah, it's time for yet another bump for year three

Denver did it two years ago and last year it was Washington. Some boardsies tipped these teams so well done. Can you do it again for 2013?

*****************************************************************

For 10 years in a row and 12 out of the last 13 a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

Below are the last place finishers from last season.

Who do you think has the best chance at winning their division and going zero to hero?

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (5-11)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
NFC North: Detroit Lions (4-12)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

Pherekydes

I'll go for the Chiefs and the Bucs.

adrian522

mikemac1 wrote: »

Huzzah, it's time for yet another bump for year three

Denver did it two years ago and last year it was Washington. Some boardsies tipped these teams so well done. Can you do it again for 2013?

*****************************************************************

For 10 years in a row and 12 out of the last 13 a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

Below are the last place finishers from last season.

Who do you think has the best chance at winning their division and going zero to hero?

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)
AFC North: Cleveland Browns (5-11)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
NFC North: Detroit Lions (4-12)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

There's a few there with a chance but I'd give the Eagles the best shot at taking their division.

The Buccs and Chiefs would have outside chances.

Tristram

Chiefs & Eagles

matthew8

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Hard to see it even if you ignore the QB issue and others, simply being in NE's division makes it tough.

AFC North: Cleveland Browns (5-11)

Lots of people are optimistic about the Browns going forward, but I find it hard to see anything but another last place finish.

AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)

Among the worst in the league. Everything has to go right just to get a winning record.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)

Broncos look very good, but Alex Smith, good offensive line, decent receivers, Jamaal Charles, some quality defensive players, means they could be next in line if Broncos slip up.

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)

It's not too long ago they were division champs so there's definitely a chance.

NFC North: Detroit Lions (4-12)

I quite like them, by far the best potential passing game of all the last placed teams, and if Bush can provide the running yardage and the D-line can live up to expectations they can be a serious team. Don't fancy the Vikings or Bears this year for the division, and who knows, the Packers might win a couple less than usual.

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Looking good, but Falcons are so consistently good they'll need to be brilliant.

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

In the same division as 49ers and Seahawks. Too much of a gap.

mikemac1

I'm going to go for the Detroit Lions

Vikings and Bears don't impress me and Green Bay may be excellent but any team can have an off year. They've lost some veteran players

I want to pick the Chiefs with Jamaal Charles, the Oline and talented D with Eric Berry & Tamba Hali and others but they burned me last year. I'm still can't figure out how their record was so poor with such an excellent roster! I watched them run all over Baltimore last season and still manage to lose