Nigel Farage MEP

McDave · 21-05-2014 05:54PM

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The financial crisis is far from over. Jesus wept. The EU is barely growing, there is a debt deflationary spiral and the thorny problem of interest rates which can't stay low forever. Kicking the can down the road can't go on forever.

The SE of the UK has a fairly massive housing bubble which will either pop or won't pop. Neither outcome would be good for ordinary people.

I'd be leaving Jesus out of it if I were you. Not least because I never said the crisis was over. I actually said we had passed the high water mark of the crisis. Quite a defensible standpoint considering all that has come to pass.

Indeed if anything, the repetitive resort to the cliche of kicking the can down the road has by now been demonstrated to be an empty formula deployed by hurlers on the ditch with few constructive solutions, and anti-EU/EZ advocates in London and the likes of UKIP.

As for growth, the EU is composed of very different economies at different stages of development. Some economies are doing very well indeed, and have been right through the EZ crisis. Others have goofed up royally, including ourselves. Although deflation is feared, it is not yet an existing phenomenon worth getting worked up about just yet. Indeed, I think we'll see deflation disappear off the agenda once banking union is agreed and investment takes off again. The money is there. It's just not going to be thrown down the drain.

Frank Lee Midere · 21-05-2014 07:15PM

McDave wrote: »

I'd be leaving Jesus out of it if I were you. Not least because I never said the crisis was over. I actually said we had passed the high water mark of the crisis. Quite a defensible standpoint considering all that has come to pass.

Indeed if anything, the repetitive resort to the cliche of kicking the can down the road has by now been demonstrated to be an empty formula deployed by hurlers on the ditch with few constructive solutions, and anti-EU/EZ advocates in London and the likes of UKIP.

As for growth, the EU is composed of very different economies at different stages of development. Some economies are doing very well indeed, and have been right through the EZ crisis. Others have goofed up royally, including ourselves. Although deflation is feared, it is not yet an existing phenomenon worth getting worked up about just yet. Indeed, I think we'll see deflation disappear off the agenda once banking union is agreed and investment takes off again. The money is there. It's just not going to be thrown down the drain.

And I said we weren't past the high water mark. I don't know what reports you are reading but the EU was in recession last year as a whole, getting one quarter of growth. Many countries are still in recession. Meanwhile interest rates are historically low, and inflation is non existant allowing the debt to GDP ratio of most countries to grow. In fact it's hard to see how that can stop. The UK's growth is based in a bubble, stagnant wages and falling productivity.

We are in the middle of a two decade crisis. I'll believe it's over when all EU countries are out if recession and making catchup growth of 4% while interest rates are 5% plus and inflation is 2%.

McDave · 21-05-2014 07:36PM

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

And I said we weren't past the high water mark. I don't know what reports you are reading but the EU was in recession last year as a whole, getting one quarter of growth. Many countries are still in recession. Meanwhile interest rates are historically low, and inflation is non existant allowing the debt to GDP ratio of most countries to grow. In fact it's hard to see how that can stop. The UK's growth is based in a bubble, stagnant wages and falling productivity.

We are in the middle of a two decade crisis. I'll believe it's over when all EU countries are out if recession and making catchup growth of 4% while interest rates are 5% plus and inflation is 2%.

Not according to Eurostat, where there was marginal, but nevertheless positive growth last year of 0.1% in the EU, and where there has been on average growth through most of the crisis.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115

shanered · 21-05-2014 09:25PM

Here's a link to a Vice Article on UKIP's carnival in Croyden:

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/ukip-threw-a-****ty-carnival?utm_source=vicefbuk

Seems Nigel didn't want to go to Croyden because it's a dump, I wouldn't blame him really.
The Carnival seemed like a flop with no Nigel and the band pulling out.
The anti-UKIP protesters there also calling them Nazis seemed a bit lost also.
Bizzarre scenario by the description given.

Frank Lee Midere · 21-05-2014 09:25PM

McDave wrote: »

Not according to Eurostat, where there was marginal, but nevertheless positive growth last year of 0.1% in the EU, and where there has been on average growth through most of the crisis.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115

I don't feel that totally destroys my argument. The euro area was in recession. As was Ireland at least in terms of GDP. Now look at 2010 & 2011. It looked naively as if things were getting better. The euro area grows at 2.0 and 1.6, followed by -0.7 and -0.4.

Two years recession. Four out of six in the Euro area. And no structural problems solved. Cans are most definitely being kicked.

McDave · 22-05-2014 07:54AM

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

I don't feel that totally destroys my argument. The euro area was in recession. As was Ireland at least in terms of GDP. Now look at 2010 & 2011. It looked naively as if things were getting better. The euro area grows at 2.0 and 1.6, followed by -0.7 and -0.4.

Two years recession. Four out of six in the Euro area. And no structural problems solved. Cans are most definitely being kicked.

You made a simple claim that the EU was in recession in 2013. Eurostat data demonstrates that it was not.

The EZ is a different matter. Certain countries within the Euro are being forced by their EZ obligations to address their unsustainable macroeconomic performances. Cutbacks and the inability to borrow unsustainably have obviously affected the growth rates of certain countries. What would you prefer? Countries that overborrowed before 2008 continuing to overborrow into perpetuity? That model just doesn't fly anymore.

As for structural problems, Greece is in primary surplus. Spain and Italy's budgets are roughly in balance. (Our position is less certain, with evidence of spending slippage and the continued use of GDP as a yardstick.) Within the EZ in particular, there are moves towards banking union, which have to be agreed before there will be renewed continental investment.

Of course nothing is perfect in the EU or the EZ. But there is no political state of nirvana anywhere. The EU itself suffered from stagflation and economic sclerosis after the oil crises in the 70s and 80s. We came through that. We'll emerge from the current crisis as well, some in better shape than others. But that's always been the case.

In short, there are few grounds for unbridled optimism, now that the West has lost many competitive advantages, including cheap oil and commodities, and its very advantageous terms of trade. But neither are there grounds for hopeless pessimism. Doom merchants have overplayed their hands on the EZ crisis. Like many, they underestimate the ability of political forces to condition the environments in which they operate.

Frank Lee Midere · 22-05-2014 01:07PM

McDave wrote: »

You made a simple claim that the EU was in recession in 2013. Eurostat data demonstrates that it was not.

The EZ is a different matter. Certain countries within the Euro are being forced by their EZ obligations to address their unsustainable macroeconomic performances. Cutbacks and the inability to borrow unsustainably have obviously affected the growth rates of certain countries. What would you prefer? Countries that overborrowed before 2008 continuing to overborrow into perpetuity? That model just doesn't fly anymore.

As for structural problems, Greece is in primary surplus. Spain and Italy's budgets are roughly in balance. (Our position is less certain, with evidence of spending slippage and the continued use of GDP as a yardstick.) Within the EZ in particular, there are moves towards banking union, which have to be agreed before there will be renewed continental investment.

Of course nothing is perfect in the EU or the EZ. But there is no political state of nirvana anywhere. The EU itself suffered from stagflation and economic sclerosis after the oil crises in the 70s and 80s. We came through that. We'll emerge from the current crisis as well, some in better shape than others. But that's always been the case.

In short, there are few grounds for unbridled optimism, now that the West has lost many competitive advantages, including cheap oil and commodities, and its very advantageous terms of trade. But neither are there grounds for hopeless pessimism. Doom merchants have overplayed their hands on the EZ crisis. Like many, they underestimate the ability of political forces to condition the environments in which they operate.

No real answers there. You are technically correct that growth in the EU was a stunning 0.1% a full 5 years after 2008. I doubt if too many neutrals are seeing you as winning the argument of being out if the woods particularly since that's a fall back since 2010-2011. Back then you were probably chanting about being out of the woods too. It was looking rosier. But we weren't.

The real problem now is low inflation coupled with low growth. To reduce the debt/GDP ratio countries have to have real growth rates higher than their deficit. Not the primary surplus. The real deficit. Including interest payments. Interest payments have to be paid and are clearly very high given the debt/ GDP ratio. Even meeting Maastricht criteria on the deficit wouldn't stop the inexorable increase in debt/ GDP as none of the more adversely affected countries is going to grow more than the 2.5-2.75% necessary in the near future.

As I said I'll believe that we are out of the woods when real growth is 2% or more, inflation is about 2%, and interest rates are normalised. Until then low or negative interest rates and QE ( apparantly in the works for the EZ) are just going to kick that can. Or worse, create more bubbles in the search for yield, bubbles which need cleaning when they burst. But the cupboard is bare. Countries with huge debts won't be able to bail out the next bank or asset crisis.

I don't think anybody knows how to get to normal historical interest rates from here. It may be that they don't think they can.

In any case we are in the 6th year of a multi-year recession or stagnation. Occasional countries will grow. Mostly Europe will stagnate. The best option is low growth. The worst is a bigger crisis. I see no way to normal growth and higher interest rates.

jank · 23-05-2014 03:06PM

Well all the bluster aside, UKIP have had their most successful elections ever increasing their councillors from 2 to 124 at the last count. Most commentators now recognise that they are now a 4th national political force ok UK politics. And if people thnk its only the conservatives only suffering think again.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27534191

It has, though, also damaged Labour - challenging them in their northern heartlands and undermining Ed Miliband's hopes of winning in key election battlegrounds in the Midlands.

Saying that though they yet control a council but for a party that were nowhere a number of years ago it is impressive no matter what your views on their policy.

Nodin · 24-05-2014 07:55PM

"Nigel Farage is dealing with fresh allegations of racism and homophobia in his party only days after the local and European elections as Ukip was forced to launch an investigation into comments made by one of its newly elected councillors.
Dave Small, who was elected to Redditch borough council on Friday, faces being kicked out of the party for referring to gay people as "perverts" and African immigrants as "scroungers".
In comments posted on Facebook, he also attacked BBC broadcaster Clare Balding and singer Elton John over their sexuality and referred to "our sworn enemies in the Muslim world".
Stonewall's acting chief executive, Ruth Hunt, condemned the comments, saying Ukip would be "judged by the company they keep".
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/ukip-councillor-investigation-racist-homophobic-facebook-comments

And yet another one.........

comongethappy · 24-05-2014 11:49PM

Massive result.

The UKIP vote share is down 5% on last years local elections.

No councils controlled
No MPs
163 out of 6,200-ish council seats held.

Staggering the inflated coverage they receive.

Scofflaw · 25-05-2014 12:54AM

comongethappy wrote: »

Massive result.

The UKIP vote share is down 5% on last years local elections.

No councils controlled
No MPs
163 out of 6,200-ish council seats held.

Staggering the inflated coverage they receive.

Mm. 4% of council seats:

Did they get more than 4% of the coverage, would you say?

It's a very small sort of landslide.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Lemming · 25-05-2014 01:25AM

The UKIP result is nothing more than a protest vote (albeit a very foolish & stupid one) against the Tories & LibDems - who both took a hiding in the local elections. Protest votes tend to have short legs, so I don't really see it getting much mileage when push comes to shove, although I am utterly appalled & stupified as to how much media coverage these absolute cretins receive.

pablomakaveli · 25-05-2014 01:37AM

Lemming wrote: »

The UKIP result is nothing more than a protest vote (albeit a very foolish & stupid one) against the Tories & LibDems - who both took a hiding in the local elections. Protest votes tend to have short legs, so I don't really see it getting much mileage when push comes to shove, although I am utterly appalled & stupified as to how much media coverage these absolute cretins receive.

One of the main reasons this lot have gotten anywhere this time round was because of all the scaremongering about immigrants in the media in recent months. Particularly all the panic about the restrictions being lifted on Bulgarians on Romanians a few months ago. I hear more and more people grumbling about immigrants and it's these people UKIP are getting votes from.

jank · 25-05-2014 07:09AM

One would think that the media actually give them favourable coverage when in fact the opposite is true. Most media stories about the UKIP are about personality rather then policies.

Now wether this is a flash in the pan or something more permanent remains to be seen but one is assured that people are sick and tired of the same old parties that are seen as out of touch and in many respects they frame the argument. Lib Dems came form nowhere in the 90's to become a third choice and I imagine that UKIP will be a forth choice. They might be the king makers in next years GE although its a long time away.

Just look at Ireland and the amount of votes that are going to independent candidates. It is easy to suggest that its just a protest vote and normal service will resume next year. Its not that simple. Similar stories in Finland, Greece, Italy and so on. Mainstream parties are having a hard time of it.

Also, kinda odd that people are saying they had a 'bad' election.

A Dub in Glasgo · 25-05-2014 09:41AM

It was absolutely ridiculous that the UK DPM was doing presidential style debates with UKIP (a party at that stage with 1 MEP, no MP's and 2 councillors). There are many many other parties in the UK with more right to debate issues with the UK Government than UKIP.

Looks like the Tories will now move even more to the right to counter UKIP's threat to them

Lesson is clear: Ukip must be opposed, not absorbed

jank · 25-05-2014 09:56AM

The Lib Dems were plummeting in the polls and it seemed Clegg had no option but to debate UKIP and put forward their own message. It didn't work as the vast majority of those who viewed the debates thought that Farage won. It actually may cost Clegg his job as now a number of Lib Dem Candidates have openly stated that he should step down.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27561917

Scofflaw · 25-05-2014 11:39AM

jank wrote: »

One would think that the media actually give them favourable coverage when in fact the opposite is true. Most media stories about the UKIP are about personality rather then policies.

To an 'outsider' party it doesn't much matter whether coverage is negative or positive - coverage is coverage.

jank wrote: »

Now wether this is a flash in the pan or something more permanent remains to be seen but one is assured that people are sick and tired of the same old parties that are seen as out of touch and in many respects they frame the argument. Lib Dems came form nowhere in the 90's to become a third choice and I imagine that UKIP will be a forth choice. They might be the king makers in next years GE although its a long time away.

Lib Dems "came from nowhere"? They've always been the third choice in the UK, and generally in the majority at the local government level. They're getting the kicking traditionally reserved for minor coalition partners in recessionary governments.

jank wrote: »

Just look at Ireland and the amount of votes that are going to independent candidates. It is easy to suggest that its just a protest vote and normal service will resume next year. Its not that simple. Similar stories in Finland, Greece, Italy and so on. Mainstream parties are having a hard time of it.

True, although some of that is the fact that it has been primarily mainstream parties in government during the crisis. Where minor parties have been in government during the period, they too have suffered.

jank wrote: »

Also, kinda odd that people are saying they had a 'bad' election.

I don't think they had a 'bad' election - on the contrary, it's a good election for them, despite the reduced vote share, and the euros will probably be better. It's just that touting 4% of council seats as a 'landslide' seems rather overblown.

cordially,
Scofflaw

dlouth15 · 25-05-2014 12:16PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

True, although some of that is the fact that it has been primarily mainstream parties in government during the crisis. Where minor parties have been in government during the period, they too have suffered.

Hmmm. I thought the offficial line was that the Euro crisis was largely fixed and that we had moved from crisis mode.

endacl · 25-05-2014 12:27PM

Just scanned the thread title. Whoops!

'MEP'. Not 'RIP'.

Disappointed...

Frank Lee Midere · 25-05-2014 12:28PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Mm. 4% of council seats:

Did they get more than 4% of the coverage, would you say?

It's a very small sort of landslide.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I've seen this being tweeted all day but it is disingenuous.

1) both the number of councils they control and the percentage of seats is determined by the electoral system. 4% of the seats and 0% of councils is not 4% or 0% of votes.
2) their overall council percentage was lower than last year but not lower than the last time these particular wards were contested. How else could they have increased seats?
3) they seem to have not really targeted London at all and reduced their overall targets from last year. If they aren't contesting a ward they can only get 0% in that ward.
4) despite its name UKIP is really an English party. Maybe Wales too. Excluding London.

So psephologists haven't written them off. Where they contested they mostly did better than expected (25%+ ex London) and the constituencies they contested are often the battle grounds where the next election will be decided.

Hence UKIP remain a threat.

Scofflaw · 25-05-2014 12:51PM

dlouth15 wrote: »

Hmmm. I thought the offficial line was that the Euro crisis was largely fixed and that we had moved from crisis mode.

I dare say it is. And perhaps we're no longer in "crisis" if that means an imminent or obviously imminent risk of something dramatic. It hardly means anyone is out of the woods yet.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw · 25-05-2014 12:54PM

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

I've seen this being tweeted all day but it is disingenuous.

1) both the number of councils they control and the percentage of seats is determined by the electoral system. 4% of the seats and 0% of councils is not 4% or 0% of votes.
2) their overall council percentage was lower than last year but not lower than the last time these particular wards were contested. How else could they have increased seats?
3) they seem to have not really targeted London at all and reduced their overall targets from last year. If they aren't contesting a ward they can only get 0% in that ward.
4) despite its name UKIP is really an English party. Maybe Wales too. Excluding London.

So psephologists haven't written them off. Where they contested they mostly did better than expected (25%+ ex London) and the constituencies they contested are often the battle grounds where the next election will be decided.

Hence UKIP remain a threat.

Again, I don't think anyone denies that. What that picture is targeted at is the idea that there's some kind of "UKIP landslide" going on at the local level. There isn't, although it's true that the emergence of any fourth force in English politics is certainly a novelty.

cordially,
Scofflaw

jank · 25-05-2014 12:58PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

To an 'outsider' party it doesn't much matter whether coverage is negative or positive - coverage is coverage.

Well, who is to blame for that? If the media have given them more coverage then what their worth that is not UKIP's fault. Nobody in their right mind you argue that they got favourable coverage like say Obama in 2008. So you want to cast blame, point the finger at the heads of the BBC and other media outlets.

Scofflaw wrote: »

I don't think they had a 'bad' election - on the contrary, it's a good election for them, despite the reduced vote share, and the euros will probably be better. It's just that touting 4% of council seats as a 'landslide' seems rather overblown.

Who said it was a landslide?

Scofflaw · 25-05-2014 02:03PM

jank wrote: »

Well, who is to blame for that? If the media have given them more coverage then what their worth that is not UKIP's fault. Nobody in their right mind you argue that they got favourable coverage like say Obama in 2008. So you want to cast blame, point the finger at the heads of the BBC and other media outlets.

Crikey, where did I "point the finger" at UKIP?

Who said it was a landslide?

Er, the media. Not sure why you're so defensive here.

puzzled,
Scofflaw

jank · 25-05-2014 03:38PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

Er, the media. Not sure why you're so defensive here.

puzzled,
Scofflaw

Who exactly in the media though as I have not seen or read those headlines myself. Can you post a link to this 'landslide'?

Lastlight. · 25-05-2014 03:51PM

UKIP is starting at a base and this was fantastic success. Nigel Farage is a fantastic leader and the results later in the European elections will produce the earthquake.

A Dub in Glasgo · 25-05-2014 03:59PM

I agree it is a base. Farage is a bigot and the party is full of them as well

Lastlight. · 25-05-2014 04:08PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I agree it is a base. Farage is a bigot and the party is full of them as well

Zzz. No answer to the UKIP question, so shout the old nonsense which was thrown around throughout the election. It hasn't worked.

Tonight will be great if they win the European election.

A Dub in Glasgo · 25-05-2014 04:33PM

What is the UKIP question again, did not see one in your post? Farage is a bigot, clearly that rocks your boat.

Tonight will not be great if they 'win' (define win?)

Lastlight. · 25-05-2014 04:39PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What is the UKIP question again, did not see one in your post? Farage is a bigot, clearly that rocks your boat.

Tonight will not be great if they 'win' (define win?)

Winning the European election.

Nigel Farage MEP

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