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Masters 2014 Betting

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    #62
    Cjs21
    Registered Users Posts: 546 ✭✭✭Cjs21


    Ended up backing Dufner at 50/1 in PP 6 places yesterday and Rose to be 1st round leader at 40/1 with 5 places.

    Both over priced I think.

    Remember backing Rose last year and he was leading it by 3 shots after his front 9 last year but ended up with a few bogeys on the way with missing putts from 2-4 foot on 3 or 4 holes.


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    #63
    SnowDrifts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,733 ✭✭✭SnowDrifts


    Places seem very poor this year. Most book makers still only offering 5 places. Last year, Betvictor went out to 7 and so did StanJames and Paddypower if you used their mobile sites.


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    #64
    lmao
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭lmao


    I will be jinxing the following golfers this week:

    Kuchar 22/1
    D.Johnson 25/1
    Watson 28/1
    Z.Johnson 35/1
    Mahan 45/1
    DeLaet 100/1
    Stradler 300/1


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    #65
    premierstone
    Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    diomed wrote: »
    The "statistic" that first time Masters players can't/won't win is imo not really a statistic.

    Dan Pohl was beaten in a playoff by Craig Stadler in 1992.
    Len Mattiace was beaten in a playoff by Mike Weir in 2003.
    Mattiace was not a first-timer, but he had only played once before 15 years earlier in 1998.

    Several serial Masters winners had their first appearance as amateurs: Nicklaus; Crenshaw; Mickleson; Woods, and were not seasoned PGA Tour competitors.

    This comment in the review is wrong:
    "I also eliminated any first time invitees, as the only first time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979."
    Horton Smith, Gene Sarazen, and Fuzzy Zoeller won first time.

    Talk about been pedantic Pohl didnt win and neither did Mattiace, who besides wasn't a debutant.

    Re the invitee, considering the first 5 stagings of the tournament were invite only I think its safe to say the authour is referring to the masters in its current guise.


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    #66
    redzerdrog
    Registered Users Posts: 7,750 ✭✭✭redzerdrog


    This weeks bets strong possibility I will even have a bet on the par 3 contest tomorrow aswell :o

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=89844591&postcount=270


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    #67
    Mr.Prodston
    Registered Users Posts: 16,304 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Prodston


    Jason Day 16/1
    Dufner 40/1
    Cabrera 60/1
    Ryan Moore 80/1
    Marc Leishman 80/1
    Jamie Donaldson 100/1
    Stephen Gallagher 200/1

    All small money, all e/w. Just a bit of fun to add to the interest.


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    #68
    Degag
    Registered Users Posts: 9,952 ✭✭✭Degag


    bradlente wrote: »
    ^ 8/10 top ten picks last year though,no harm in a little follow.

    It's not that impressive though - it was 8 out of 23 players in the top 10. I'd hope to get 5 or 6 myself.


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    #69
    Degag
    Registered Users Posts: 9,952 ✭✭✭Degag


    diomed wrote: »
    Horton Smith, Gene Sarazen, and Fuzzy Zoeller won first time.

    Ah come on, he won it the first ever year of the Masters. A debutant had to win!!!:pac:


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    #70
    bradlente
    Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭bradlente


    Degag wrote: »
    It's not that impressive though - it was 8 out of 23 players in the top 10. I'd hope to get 5 or 6 myself.

    True,I was kind of looking for a reason to back Cabrera tbh,and any reason to back a 300/1 shot like Cink convinces me.I'm a sucker for those long shots,need very little convincing.:o


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    #71
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Yeah, sure, I was being pedantic. The first Masters winner and the second winner were both first-timers. But I did list two players without (much) Masters experience who went very close. Over half Masters winners since it started in 1934 are repeat winners. That suggests that something about the place gives some players an edge.
    I prefer to look for that quality and see if I can find high price players with that. That quality imo is long driving with a high flight. Getting close to the greens give a better chance with a short iron of hitting the area of the green you need to hit with control. If a player does not have that then they need excellent distance control with their approach shots (Z Johnson, B Langer).

    Day failed a "stat" going into the 2013 Masters in that he did not finish 72 holes in the previous (2012) Masters. No player had won a Masters since Zoeller in 1979 without completing 72 holes the year before their win. Day did compete in 2012 but didn't complete because he had to withdraw during play with an ankle injury. So the "stats" followers gave him no chance.

    My major bets this year are DeLaet (107.2) and Stadler (344.1). My minor bets are Blixt (430.3) and Weekly (761.6). Last year my big bet was Jason Day at 85s. When Day led in 2013 after the 15th hole in the last round and was trading at 1.7 on Betfair (4/6 on) I sold my position. This year Day is trading at 19s - no value for trading.

    No problem if my outsiders fail to fire. They have the driving ability. No regrets.

    I am not trying to pick the winner.


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    #72
    redzerdrog
    Registered Users Posts: 7,750 ✭✭✭redzerdrog


    I am considering going in again on Snedeker :o


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    #73
    blindside88
    Registered Users Posts: 1,968 ✭✭✭blindside88


    Have gone ew on

    J Day

    M Kucher

    D Johnson

    Was considering rose instead of Johnson but had to stick with my first choice or I'd kick myself


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    #74
    tomaussie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 913 ✭✭✭tomaussie


    redzerdrog wrote: »
    I am considering going in again on Snedeker :o

    Have you seen enough recently to suggest a return to top form ?

    I've been looking but I haven't really seen it and he's short enough off the tee too.

    He's been in better form in past years and not contested.


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    #75
    tomaussie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 913 ✭✭✭tomaussie


    Don't normally have so many selections but in order of how much I've staked....

    Jason Day. Have quite a large bet on him and will probably back him again before the start.

    Schwartzel.

    Stenson.

    Mahan.

    Watney.

    Haas.

    Zach Johnson    .

    Also have a very small bet ($20) on Stricker because I think he has the class to win it and would hate him to win and not be on.


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    #76
    SnowDrifts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,733 ✭✭✭SnowDrifts


    McIlroy gone out to 14/1 on StanJames... that's a very tasty price for a guy who is on form.


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    #77
    Tsipras
    Closed Accounts Posts: 493 ✭✭Tsipras


    Anyone got Steve Palmer's Racing Post tips?


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    #78
    Dolph Starbeam
    Registered Users Posts: 4,536 ✭✭✭Dolph Starbeam


    Strange to see so few offers from the bookies, PP and StanJames are the only ones offering 6 places.


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    #79
    SnowDrifts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,733 ✭✭✭SnowDrifts


    YayaBanana wrote: »
    Strange to see so few offers from the bookies, PP and StanJames are the only ones offering 6 places.

    Yeah said the same yesterday... they went out to 7 places last year along with betvictor. I wonder is Tiger not being in the field the reason?


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    #80
    Dolph Starbeam
    Registered Users Posts: 4,536 ✭✭✭Dolph Starbeam


    SnowDrifts wrote: »
    Yeah said the same yesterday... they went out to 7 places last year along with betvictor. I wonder is Tiger not being in the field the reason?

    Yeah I thought the same, PP went 6 places the last few PGA events so I was sure they would be offering 7 places this week.


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    #81
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    enough to make it easy to understand


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    #82
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users Posts: 34,044 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »
    Right I have got on my Top end of the market done with

    Jason Day 23 win only
    Dustin Johnson 24 win only
    Zach Johnson 38 win and hope to do place

    Only ever won this once with Zach Johnson in 2007 but few ok places since too.

    Love this tournament aside from the betting. It really is the best tournament around
    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »
    Added Sergio yesterday at 30/1. Just have a gut feeling more then anything. I think he could give this a right good go especially with Tiger out and Phil injury concerns.

    Edit:Just see he is leading in Huston. Not sure if I want him playing that well this week.
    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »
    Bowditch 2e @520 on betfair. Will nibble at top 10 too.

    Right I added Bubba Watson 28/1ew
    Gary Woodland 80 win and place
    Ryan Moore 110 win and place
    Got 40/1 on Bowditch Top 10 with StanJames

    So 8 Golfers in total.

    TBH I could have picked another 5 or 6.

    At least you know in weeks like this that you know every player is out to win.


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    #83
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users Posts: 34,044 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    Racing Post Selection were

    the masters
    r mcilroy,s garcia,c schwartzel,g woodland,t olesen.

    top debutant. p reed
    top amateur. m fitzpatrick
    top american. g woodland
    top asian. h matsuyama
    top australian a scott


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    #84
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,617 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Steve Palmers are

    Top tip McIlroy at 14/1
    Next best Garcia 22/1
    Other selections
    Schwartzel 40/1
    Woodland 80/1
    &
    T Olesen 150/1

    Prices as published in RP this morning, I'm sure they have moved since.


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    #85
    Nuri Sahin
    Site Banned Posts: 26,456 ✭✭✭✭Nuri Sahin


    New customers of Coral can avail of Rory to be in the Top 10 @ 3/1.

    Generally Evens elsewhere.


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    #86
    cheekypup
    Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭cheekypup


    can't believe no one backing Mickelson!!!!
    I'm going back Big Phil and Jason Day, not sure the odds or whether to back ew yet.


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    #87
    TheNap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 786 ✭✭✭TheNap


    3 Bets to win for me

    Day
    Dufner
    Bubba


    And as always at the Masters an ew on Couples and Cabrera ( its a ritual )


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    #88
    premierstone
    Registered Users Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    cheekypup wrote: »
    can't believe no one backing Mickelson!!!!
    I'm going back Big Phil and Jason Day, not sure the odds or whether to back ew yet.

    Not going to put you off or anything, and in fact I have taken a chance on Day myself, but both of those have been strugling with injury, back and thumb respectively.


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    #89
    Cjs21
    Registered Users Posts: 546 ✭✭✭Cjs21


    Right so all bets done (Until the cut anyway)

    Jason Dufner E/W 6 places at 50/1

    Graeme McDowell E/W 5 places 66/1

    Angel Cabrera E/W 6 Places 60/1



    Par 3 contest

    Phil Mickelson 20/1

    Bill Haas 33/1

    Ryan Moore 40/1


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    #90
    cheekypup
    Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭cheekypup


    premierstone wrote: »
    Not going to put you off or anything, and in fact I have taken a chance on Day myself, but both of those have been strugling with injury, back and thumb respectively.
    I'm not sure if they're struggling (with injury or form) though, I'd say pulling out of tournaments was more precautionary in preparation for the Masters.


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    #91
    Nuri Sahin
    Site Banned Posts: 26,456 ✭✭✭✭Nuri Sahin


    Cjs21 wrote: »
    Right so all bets done (Until the cut anyway)

    Jason Dufner E/W 6 places at 50/1

    Graeme McDowell E/W 5 places 66/1

    Angel Cabrera E/W 6 Places 60/1



    Par 3 contest

    Phil Mickelson 20/1

    Bill Haas 33/1

    Ryan Moore 40/1

    If he's in contention, he'll sabotage his round. He's done it before.


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