Masters 2014 Betting

Cjs21

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

If he's in contention, he'll sabotage his round. He's done it before.

He has done it before. In fact he done it 2 years in a row.

Last year he didn't, last year he came out saying he wants to win the masters, but he also said he wants to be the 1st to win the masters and par 3 contest.

Also mentioned it in yesterdays interview. Only a tenner on him anyway, thought it was worth the risk!

Pilsbury Doughboy

tomaussie wrote: »

Have you seen enough recently to suggest a return to top form ?

I've been looking but I haven't really seen it and he's short enough off the tee too.

He's been in better form in past years and not contested.

Yeah I don't understand the Snedeker love, I think it's a very poor price. I've had him at way bigger prices this year in regular PGA Tour events and he's done nothing. So in a major at Augusta I can't be having him so low, the good news is his odds had just shortened purely from this post saying he has no chance.

hoopyhoopy

This looks good shows different trend of masters winners and then gives a list of the players that match these trends coming into the masters.


http://bettingbias.com/golf/us-masters/us-master-trends

Speak Now

Schwartzel and Mickleson for me.

unplayable

ive done-

scott (big bet)
phil
day
kuchar
charl
angel-top 5 only
woodland-top 5 only

good luck to all. great weekend ahead!

langer91

only 1 bet for me - 20 euro on Scott at 16/1 backed earlier in the year

Boskowski

10 on Oosthuizen
10 on Dufner
10 on Jimenez (for the laugh and well...)

redzerdrog

Unfortunately only in from work so didn't get a bet on the par 3 contest

Added another small bet on Snedeker and my reasoning for it

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=89863980&postcount=271

Cjs21

Cjs21 wrote: »

Right so all bets done (Until the cut anyway)

Jason Dufner E/W 6 places at 50/1

Graeme McDowell E/W 5 places 66/1

Angel Cabrera E/W 6 Places 60/1



Par 3 contest

Phil Mickelson 20/1

Bill Haas 33/1

Ryan Moore 40/1

Nice start!

The_Kew_Tour

Cjs21 wrote: »

Nice start!

Well done.

Bad news for me is that I backed him to win Masters..

One bet down:(:pac:

tomaussie

Pilsbury Doughboy wrote: »

Yeah I don't understand the Snedeker love, I think it's a very poor price. I've had him at way bigger prices this year in regular PGA Tour events and he's done nothing. So in a major at Augusta I can't be having him so low, the good news is his odds had just shortened purely from this post saying he has no chance.

I wasn't really questioning his wisdom in backing him as I'm a big Snedeker fan myself but I haven't seen anything recently that would encourage me to back him.

I thought Rezer had seen something to encourage him to back Snedeker. My feeling is that in previous years he's been in much better form and hasn't really looked like winning with maybe one exception.

tomaussie

Anybody got an angle on first round leader ?

I'd like to back somebody who was on my shortlist to win it but didn't make my final bets.

I'm thinking Kuchar who is hot but I think lacks the ability to win it.

Also think McIlroy, Stenson and Garcia could be quick out of the blocks but I have no statistical information to help me make a pick.

rambojon

weather forecast favours morning starters tomorrow.. calm early 10-15 winds afternoon.was going in on langer to beat kaymer [EMAIL="'@13"]@13[/EMAIL]\8 top german but scuppered by forecast kaymer out early and langer much later. also liked maj for top senior given freddies back troubles.. but again fred starting early ( prob worth 2 shots min) getting better of the weather.. ah well back to the drawing board!

Cjs21

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Well done.

Bad news for me is that I backed him to win Masters..

One bet down:(:pac:

If anyone can do it he can.

His masters record is good, he obviously thinks he can do it.

Have to reinvest some winnings on him for winning me that tonight!

qwabercd

Z.Johnson
Donald
Woodland

Wouldn't normally back Donald (I had him each way when he came third here back in '05, would be surprised if I've backed him more than twice since) but 50/1 is very good value in my opinion. Good course form with 3 top 10s. He has found a bit of form this year with the swing changes, 2 top 10s in the Velspar and the Honda.

Have also backed De Laet to be top debutant at 10/1, would be fearful of Harris English who I may add as an outright bet at 66/1.

Best of luck to all.

shmeee

A fourfold just shy of 17/2, best price with Stan James and there seems to be a big difference among bookies.

Top Spanish Player - Garcia
Top South African Player - Schwartzel
Top Australian Player - Scott
Top Irish Player - Mcilroy

Joe Doe

1. To Win: Henrik Stenson best price up to x34 single to win, might wait 1r+ for move to x40+ for even more value.
2. Safe card: The most tipped appears to be Sergio Garcia x18 - x21 so 2nd choice ew 6pl. Again wait 1st day out till x35+ for value again.
3. Wild card: Victor Dubuisson good to go at x100 odds why not? ew6pl.

No interest in Rory McIlroy at x11 due to lack of value, same for Scott, won't suit my accumulator layouts. Rory will either roar to lead all the way through ...but very much more likely think perform average with final round recovery back up to 5-6th place. Not meaning to being funny but these youngest (and best) of players should just party more, watch happy gilmore lots, simply enjoy playing, rather than trying too hard from a sports psychological pov, you got another 20yrs+ to continue being a legend, no rush, no pressure.

Pilsbury Doughboy

Pilsbury Doughboy wrote: »

I have DJ, Bubba, ZJ, G-Mac, Haas, Bradley all backed on BF win only

I have Rickie, Furyk, English, Couples on PP each way.

Mickelson added last and that's my lot, a sweat of some variety would be nice!

tomaussie

rambojon wrote: »

weather forecast favours morning starters tomorrow.. calm early 10-15 winds afternoon.was going in on langer to beat kaymer [EMAIL="'@13"]@13[/EMAIL]\8 top german but scuppered by forecast kaymer out early and langer much later. also liked maj for top senior given freddies back troubles.. but again fred starting early ( prob worth 2 shots min) getting better of the weather.. ah well back to the drawing board!

I can't find anything to back up what you're saying.

Everything points to a dry calm day throughout.

You got any links for what you've suggested ?

It'll affect anybodies choice for first round leader.

rambojon

tomaussie wrote: »

I can't find anything to back up what you're saying.

Everything points to a dry calm day throughout.

You got any links for what you've suggested ?

It'll affect anybodies choice for first round leader.

Sky pundits both talked about it at the start of the par 3 coverage!

diomed

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/augusta_bush_field

If you want a more detailed daily forecast click Super Forecast on the menu bar.

TheNap

Here is the winner

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/mastersaugusta/10755326/Masters-2014-Who-will-win-Nine-tips-for-identifying-the-champion.html

diomed

TheNap wrote: »

Here is the winner
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/mastersaugusta/10755326/Masters-2014-Who-will-win-Nine-tips-for-identifying-the-champion.html

2. No Augusta rookie has savoured Masters victory since Fuzzy Zoeller defeated Ed Sneed and Tom Watson in a play-off in 1979.

Those 34 winners since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

[-16] 16 winners since then started their Masters careers as amateurs, and were unlikely to win on their first start
- Tom Watson; Craig Stadler; Ben Crenshaw; Jack Nicklaus; Jose Maria Olazabal; Tiger Woods; Phil Mickelson.
[-5] Seve Ballesteros (2 wins) had his first start in 1977; Nick Faldo (3 wins) had his first start in 1979 (Zoeller's year) so could not be first-time starters after 1979.
[-1] Bernhard Langer had two wins since 1979, so his second win could not be a first-time start.

That leaves 13 players in the 34 years since 1979 that did not win on their first attempt, not 34 players.
Adam Scott; Bubba Watson; Charl Schwartzel; Angel Cabrera; Zach Johnson; Mike Weir; Vijay Singh; Mark O'Meara; Fred Couples; Ian Woosnam; Sandy Lyle; Larry Mize; Bernhard Langer.


From my thread on Betfair
We hear this “stat” trotted out every year.
"No debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Players need a few years to learn the course."

I believe that stat is a combination of (1) variance/luck (2) field selection.

(1) variance/luck

These first-timers have come close:
1982: Dan Pohl was beaten in a playoff. He shot 67, 67 in four rounds.
1990: John Huston was 3rd. He opened with a 66.
1993: Tom Lehman was 3rd. He opened with a 67, and finished with a 68.
1994: Tom Lehman finished 2nd on his second appearance.
1997: Tommy Tolles finished 3rd on his first appearance, 72,72,72,67.
1999: Carlos Franco, Paraguay, his 1st year on the US tour was 6th.
2000: Carlos France was 7th on his 2nd appearance.
2001: Toshimitsu Izawa was 4th shooting a 66 and 67 (not sure if 1st appearance).
2003: Len Mattiace was 2nd, beaten in a playoff. He played once before, 15 years earlier in 1988, missing the cut.
2004: Paul Casey was 6th on his debut, shooting a 69 and 68.
2005: Mark Hensby was 5th on his debut, opening with 69.
2009: John Merrick, 6th on debut, with a 68, 66.
2011: Justin Day, 2nd on debut, clubhouse leader in a tie with Adam Scott until Charl Schwartzel finished with four birdies to win by two shots.

Those eleven players shot low rounds in 13 tournaments without years of experience.

(2) field selection

The chances of debutants are lowered by Masters field selection rules.
(a) previous winners (19 of 2014 field)
(b) previous year top twelve, including ties (4 of 2014 field)
(c) amateurs (6 of 2014 field)

Over 50% of Masters were won by repeat winners (counting their first win and subsequent wins.) probably because the field is full of old champions and amateurs that limit realistic contenders.

Many later multiple winners: Nicklaus; Crenshaw; Mickelson, Woods; made their debuts as amateurs, boosting the "didn't win on debut" stat. They were inexperienced in professional golf on their Masters debut.



I have never seen a stat for any other tournament that demonstrates that players win on their first start in that tournament. Name one.
This lazy Masters stat is horse droppings imo.

diomed

5. The past 15 champions at Augusta all made the cut at the previous year’s Masters.

Another dodgy stat.
In 2013 Jason Day led by two shots after the 15th in the final round. He dropped shots at the 16th and 17th and finished 3rd, a shot behind Scott and Cabrera.
The previous year he did not make the cut. He withdrew during play with an ankle injury.

The stat suggests he had no chance in 2013 as he did not make the cut in 2012.

adrian522

8. There is a pattern of peaking at the right moment. Six of the past 13 Masters winners had a PGA Tour victory earlier in the season.

Surely 6 out of 13 is not a reason to be eliminating anyone, it's as close to 50/50 as you can get with an odd number.

Irish94

Miguel Angel Jimenez To Make The Cut - 1/2

He has made the cut 9/10 times playing at the Masters. Has made the cut the last 8 times he has played in Augusta.

gordongekko

diomed wrote: »

5. The past 15 champions at Augusta all made the cut at the previous year’s Masters.

Another dodgy stat.
In 2013 Jason Day led by two shots after the 15th in the final round. He dropped shots at the 16th and 17th and finished 3rd, a shot behind Scott and Cabrera.
The previous year he did not make the cut. He withdrew during play with an ankle injury.

The stat suggests he had no chance in 2013 as he did not make the cut in 2012.

he did not win in 2013

gordongekko

diomed wrote: »

2. No Augusta rookie has savoured Masters victory since Fuzzy Zoeller defeated Ed Sneed and Tom Watson in a play-off in 1979.

Those 34 winners since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

[-16] 16 winners since then started their Masters careers as amateurs, and were unlikely to win on their first start
- Tom Watson; Craig Stadler; Ben Crenshaw; Jack Nicklaus; Jose Maria Olazabal; Tiger Woods; Phil Mickelson.
[-5] Seve Ballesteros (2 wins) had his first start in 1977; Nick Faldo (3 wins) had his first start in 1979 (Zoeller's year) so could not be first-time starters after 1979.
[-1] Bernhard Langer had two wins since 1979, so his second win could not be a first-time start.

That leaves 13 players in the 34 years since 1979 that did not win on their first attempt, not 34 players.
Adam Scott; Bubba Watson; Charl Schwartzel; Angel Cabrera; Zach Johnson; Mike Weir; Vijay Singh; Mark O'Meara; Fred Couples; Ian Woosnam; Sandy Lyle; Larry Mize; Bernhard Langer.


From my thread on Betfair
We hear this “stat” trotted out every year.
"No debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Players need a few years to learn the course."

I believe that stat is a combination of (1) variance/luck (2) field selection.

(1) variance/luck

These first-timers have come close:
1982: Dan Pohl was beaten in a playoff. He shot 67, 67 in four rounds.
1990: John Huston was 3rd. He opened with a 66.
1993: Tom Lehman was 3rd. He opened with a 67, and finished with a 68.
1994: Tom Lehman finished 2nd on his second appearance.
1997: Tommy Tolles finished 3rd on his first appearance, 72,72,72,67.
1999: Carlos Franco, Paraguay, his 1st year on the US tour was 6th.
2000: Carlos France was 7th on his 2nd appearance.
2001: Toshimitsu Izawa was 4th shooting a 66 and 67 (not sure if 1st appearance).
2003: Len Mattiace was 2nd, beaten in a playoff. He played once before, 15 years earlier in 1988, missing the cut.
2004: Paul Casey was 6th on his debut, shooting a 69 and 68.
2005: Mark Hensby was 5th on his debut, opening with 69.
2009: John Merrick, 6th on debut, with a 68, 66.
2011: Justin Day, 2nd on debut, clubhouse leader in a tie with Adam Scott until Charl Schwartzel finished with four birdies to win by two shots.

Those eleven players shot low rounds in 13 tournaments without years of experience.

(2) field selection

The chances of debutants are lowered by Masters field selection rules.
(a) previous winners (19 of 2014 field)
(b) previous year top twelve, including ties (4 of 2014 field)
(c) amateurs (6 of 2014 field)

Over 50% of Masters were won by repeat winners (counting their first win and subsequent wins.) probably because the field is full of old champions and amateurs that limit realistic contenders.

Many later multiple winners: Nicklaus; Crenshaw; Mickelson, Woods; made their debuts as amateurs, boosting the "didn't win on debut" stat. They were inexperienced in professional golf on their Masters debut.



I have never seen a stat for any other tournament that demonstrates that players win on their first start in that tournament. Name one.
This lazy Masters stat is horse droppings imo.

no first timer have won so the stat is fine

bobwilliams

Outright
Rory
Watney
Haas
Fowler
Charl

First round leader
Charl
Stallings
Haas
Fowler

Nuri Sahin

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

For the time being, all I have is..

1) Sergio Garcia @ 22/1
2) Zach Johnson @ 33/1
3) Keegan Bradley @ 33/1
4) Charl Schwartzel @ 33/1
5) Angel Cabrera @ 66/1
6) Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1


Will edit this a little and add one more at least.

Can't edit original post.

Adding Sergio or Matsuyama. I've been debating over these two all week as a few know on the Tweet machine, just couldn't decide between either and sure, it's the Masters. Nowt wrong with an extra bet. Used to back Sergio regularly and Matsuyama has been a fairly regular fixture (not on Speith or Stenson levels mind you) the past year or so.