2014 Champion Hurdle

Hulk Hands · 18-02-2014 10:35PM

handsfree wrote: »

with the smaller field and probable softer ground conditions, the race conditions are looking like they will favour the fly.

can you see our Conor improving the 6lbs or so required to beat him?

He improved at least that from Leopardstown to Cheltenham last year so i'd say every chnace. Have heard that he's very much a spring horse

handsfree · 18-02-2014 10:44PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

He improved at least that from Leopardstown to Cheltenham last year so i'd say every chnace. Have heard that he's very much a spring horse

I'm very much leaning towards him after his leopardstown run and dessie Hughes interview after on rte. HF getting his optimum conditions is a concern for me.

Nulty · 18-02-2014 10:50PM

I think he can, but its very tight. It could go wither way. I'm gonna do a reverse forecast I think. I did the straight forecast HF-OC in the Irish Champion but I wouldn't be as confident Hurricane Fly can beat him in a race with Championship pace. I'd say the faster they go the better for OC - not to say conditions won't suit HF.

rossom · 18-02-2014 10:59PM

I definitely think its possible for Our Conor to overturn the form with HF but it is very tight. Our Conor proved he really liked Cheltenham (albeit on the new course) and Hurricane Fly certainly is a different animal at Leopardstown than Cheltenham.

On that alone, you could say that could easily give OC enough to turn the form around on the Irish Champion Hurdle run but then again HF pulled out enough when needed. Both probably won't be 100% primed until Cheltenham but Our Conor is entitled to improve that bit more as he's only 5.

Think they will probably be the first two home.

Harry Angstrom · 18-02-2014 11:27PM

I really can't see how anybody could fancy Our Conor, considering the appalling record of Triumph Hurdle winners in the following year's Champion Hurdle. Even the great Kribensis couldn't do it.

Gregk961 · 18-02-2014 11:27PM

I'll be doing Our Conor myself, although I probebly made that decision 13 months ago to be honest.

He can at the very least beat jezki and run the fly very close. As for TNO and MTOY its hard to assess, but im willing to put a solid day 1 bet on Our Conor

Hulk Hands · 18-02-2014 11:33PM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I really can't see how anybody could fancy Our Conor, considering the appalling record of Triumph Hurdle winners in the following year's Champion. Even the great Kribensis couldn't do it.

But the quite average Katchit could. He's got as close to anyone to beating HF in ireland in the last couple of years. He's a spring horse who will likely improve, and is following a very obvious training path by Dessie that will see him improve. He's been exceptional on a very similar course to the one he'll be racing on next time. He's also had only 5 runs, so has the most room to improve in the field. He also has the two key components for Cheltenham, the ability to jump and travel. The triumph stat is a load of crap. Would he somehow have a better chance if he had run in the Supreme instead last season? He's only 5 which is a slight worry but on the form he's shown there's every reason for someone believing he can win.

jimjamcos · 18-02-2014 11:42PM

handsfree wrote: »

with the smaller field and probable softer ground conditions, the race conditions are looking like they will favour the fly.

can you see our Conor improving the 6lbs or so required to beat him?

OC wont necessarily have to improve that much for Cheltenham. As has been said, he should improve for it while HF is likely to slightly dis-improve for it. Can definitely see OC reversing Leopardstown form.

klairondavis · 18-02-2014 11:47PM

Our Conor won't be in receipt of 2 lbs from Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham. I expect it will be very close between the two again and those small things can make all the difference. The Champion Hurdle will also be Danny Mullins's biggest race of his short career. I don't think there has been as much hype about a Champion Hurdle since 2005. It would be great if we got two or three of them jumping the last together again.

Harry Angstrom · 18-02-2014 11:48PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

But the quite average Katchit could. He's got as close to anyone to beating HF in ireland in the last couple of years. He's a spring horse who will likely improve, and is following a very obvious training path by Dessie that will see him improve. He's been exceptional on a very similar course to the one he'll be racing on next time. He's also had only 5 runs, so has the most room to improve in the field. He also has the two key components for Cheltenham, the ability to jump and travel. The triumph stat is a load of crap. Would he somehow have a better chance if he had run in the Supreme instead last season? He's only 5 which is a slight worry but on the form he's shown there's every reason for someone believing he can win.

The stats speak for themselves. Only two Triumph Hurdle winners have followed up in the following year's Champion Hurdle - Persian War and Katchit.
Persian War was exceptional. Katchit was lucky. If Sizing Europe hadn't gone wrong, he'd have been a poor second to him.

klairondavis · 18-02-2014 11:53PM

Celestial Halo went very close. Countrywide Flame ran a cracker last year.

Our Conor will improve for another year on his back but the Triumph stat shouldn't put anyone off. He was the most impressive Triumph winner in living memory and proved himself up to a point in open company the last day at Leopardstown.

Hulk Hands · 18-02-2014 11:56PM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

The stats speak for themselves. Only two Triumph Hurdle winners have followed up in the following year's Champion Hurdle - Persian War and Katchit.
Persian War was exceptional. Katchit was lucky. If Sizing Europe hadn't gone wrong, he'd have been a poor second to him.

Based on a triumph hurdle annihilation, and a 2l second to the unbeatable (around leop) HF, there's no reason to believe that OC can't be exceptional either. The race coming a little too early is my only concern. Someone mentioned Danny Mullins. The upside is OC is about as uncomplicated a ride as you can get. Jumps, travels and stays

Harry Angstrom · 18-02-2014 11:58PM

klairondavis wrote: »

Celestial Halo went very close. Countrywide Flame ran a cracker last year.

Our Conor will improve for another year on his back but the Triumph stat shouldn't put anyone off. He was the most impressive Triumph winner in living memory and proved himself up to a point in open company the last day at Leopardstown.

He beat very little in last year's Triumph. Granted, he was very impressive but the form doesn't really amount to very much. I think he'll run well in the Champion but I think 2015 might be his year.

klairondavis · 19-02-2014 12:04AM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

He beat very little in last year's Triumph. Granted, he was very impressive but the form doesn't really amount to very much. I think he'll run well in the Champion but I think 2015 might be his year.

That's true but you could argue the same about The New One, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki. The New One outsprinted a field of future staying chasers in a falsely run race in last year's Neptune. My Tent Or Yours and Jezki couldn't pass Champagne Fever last year. Jezki only finished a few lengths in front of Diakali at Fairyhouse and that horse was been well beaten on two occasions by Our Conor last year.

mulbot · 19-02-2014 12:05AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Based on a triumph hurdle annihilation, and a 2l second to the unbeatable (around leop) HF, there's no reason to believe that OC can't be exceptional either. The race coming a little too early is my only concern. Someone mentioned Danny Mullins. The upside is OC is about as uncomplicated a ride as you can get. Jumps, travels and stays

true and i think he should win,my slight fear is danny mullins might not have the tactical awareness of the more experienced jockeys,especially around chelt

longshotvalue · 19-02-2014 12:12AM

One thing that is overstated considerably is the Hurricane Fly issue with cheltenham. He has easily the best course form of anything in the field and his win last year was exceptional considering the way the race was run and looking in trouble 3 out and also going too soon.

Our Conor does look the biggest danger but last time out he got closer than expected mainly because of an uncharacteristic poor jump by HF at the last, and even then HF basically burst clear in the last 100 yards to win going away conceding 2 lbs.. Our Conor would need to improve 7-8 lbs to beat HF on the same form, and he will have to prove his jumping in a champion hurdle, which is a big ask. Im not saying he wont improve that much but he will need to. Cant have Jezki or MTOY at all.. Im not sure if Our Conor has shown a burst of finishing speed yet in any of his races, it may not be needed but he has yet to show it..

Harry Angstrom · 19-02-2014 12:24AM

klairondavis wrote: »

That's true but you could argue the same about The New One, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki. The New One outsprinted a field of future staying chasers in a falsely run race in last year's Neptune. My Tent Or Yours and Jezki couldn't pass Champagne Fever last year. Jezki only finished a few lengths in front of Diakali at Fairyhouse and that horse was been well beaten on two occasions by Our Conor last year.

I think Sun Alliance/Neptune Hurdle winners are far better equipped to cope with a race like the Champion Hurdle, compared with winners of the Supreme or the Triumph. The Champion Hurdle is a tough race, it often suits horses who stay well, rather than flashy pacey types. Istabraq and Hardy Eustace followed up in the Champion, having won the previous year's Sun Alliance, while Rock On Ruby finished second in the Neptune before going on to win the following year's Champion Hurdle. I'll be very surprised if The New One doesn't finish in front of My Tent Or Yours and Our Conor in the Champion Hurdle. For me, he's far better equipped for a race like the Champion, compared with OC or MTOY.

jimjamcos · 19-02-2014 12:26AM

aidankkk wrote: »

One thing that is overstated considerably is the Hurricane Fly issue with cheltenham. He has easily the best course form of anything in the field and his win last year was exceptional considering the way the race was run and looking in trouble 3 out and also going too soon.

Our Conor does look the biggest danger but last time out he got closer than expected mainly because of an uncharacteristic poor jump by HF at the last, and even then HF basically burst clear in the last 100 yards to win going away conceding 2 lbs.. Our Conor would need to improve 7-8 lbs to beat HF on the same form, and he will have to prove his jumping in a champion hurdle, which is a big ask. Im not saying he wont improve that much but he will need to. Cant have Jezki or MTOY at all.. Im not sure if Our Conor has shown a burst of finishing speed yet in any of his races, it may not be needed but he has yet to show it..

There's absolutely no doubting that HF hasn't shown his best at Cheltenham. Even Ruby has said so. He was overly keen the first year and outpaced the last two. It was his bit of extra class and guts that won it last year but hard to see him winning if similar happens this year. As for OC, the stronger the pace the better he'll be and don't see any issues whatsoever with his jumping.

klairondavis · 19-02-2014 12:28AM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I think Sun Alliance/Neptune Hurdle winners are far better equipped to cope with a race like the Champion Hurdle, compared with winners of the Supreme or the Triumph. The Champion Hurdle is a tough race, it often suits horses who stay well, rather than flashy pacey types. Istabraq and Hardy Eustace followed up in the Champion, having won the previous year's Sun Alliance, while Rock On Ruby finished second in the Neptune before going on to win the following year's Champion Hurdle. I'll be very surprised if The New One doesn't finish in front of My Tent Or Yours and Our Conor in the Champion Hurdle. For me, he's far better equipped for a race like the Champion, compared with OC or MTOY.

I'm not sure if the race will be run to suit The New One. I don't think he jumps well enough if he has to cut out his own running which seems likely.

longshotvalue · 19-02-2014 12:33AM

jimjamcos wrote: »

There's absolutely no doubting that HF hasn't shown his best at Cheltenham. Even Ruby has said so. He was overly keen the first year and outpaced the last two. It was his bit of extra class and guts that won it last year but hard to see him winning if similar happens this year. As for OC, the stronger the pace the better he'll be and don't see any issues whatsoever with his jumping.

I wouldn't agree in that his best runs ever were his 2 champion hurdle wins, beating there same horses each time here might seem great but its not a patch on beating the best, he may not be travelling as well or something but when it comes down to it by the line he has won 2. Last year in my view was easily his best performance ever. I don't see any problems with OC's jumping yet but he has yet to run in a Champion Hurdle which tends to be unique circumstances in that there is usually pace all the way around, and its a completely different animal than any other hurdle race.

Huntley · 19-02-2014 12:44AM

The complete and utter pace collapse last year is why Hurricane Fly won. He is banking on similar happening this year or a moderate gallop being set throughout. I think neither are likely to happen.

Hulk Hands · 19-02-2014 12:46AM

aidankkk wrote: »

I wouldn't agree in that his best runs ever were his 2 champion hurdle wins, beating there same horses each time here might seem great but its not a patch on beating the best, he may not be travelling as well or something but when it comes down to it by the line he has won 2. Last year in my view was easily his best performance ever. I don't see any problems with OC's jumping yet but he has yet to run in a Champion Hurdle which tends to be unique circumstances in that there is usually pace all the way around, and its a completely different animal than any other hurdle race.

He won last year all out by 2l or so to ROR. Then he goes to Punchestown and hammers the same horse on the bridle by a huge distance. His first year he beat TS by 7l or so all out. He beat him by 5l on the bridle next time out (couldve been 25) and has hammered him in Ireland any time since. I think he's easily been at his most impressive in Ireland, and dont take the 'same horses' argument that many throw out, as he's hammered the best of the English (Binocular, Menorah, ROR) over here also

Hulk Hands · 19-02-2014 12:49AM

Huntley wrote: »

The complete and utter pace collapse last year is why Hurricane Fly won. He is banking on similar happening this year or a moderate gallop being set throughout. I think neither are likely to happen.

If Rock on Ruby was able to sustain that ferocious gallop in 2012, why wasn't he able to last year? Who do you think of the horses likely to run will set a strong pace?

Huntley · 19-02-2014 12:59AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If Rock on Ruby was able to sustain that ferocious gallop in 2012, why wasn't he able to last year?

Who do you think of the horses likely to run will set a strong pace?

ROR ran a totally different race last year than 2012. I thought that was glaringly obvious.

Something will force the issue. As is always the case. Take in to account it is widely known how to get Hurricane Fly beat, and the quality horses in the field, and it is easily predictable what will happen.

Motivator · 19-02-2014 01:11AM

Huntley wrote: »

ROR ran a totally different race last year than 2012. I thought that was glaringly obvious.

Something will force the issue. As is always the case. Take in to account it is widely known how to get Hurricane Fly beat, and the quality horses in the field, and it is easily predictable what will happen.

I can see something similar happening to the year Rock on Ruby won. McCoy paid too much attention to Ruby on Hurricane Fly. Instead of riding binocular like he should have he didn't take his eyes off Ruby until 4 out & by that stage Binocular was caught for pace. I can see something similar happening this year, it'll become too tactical & something at a price (perhaps Jezki with Barry Geraghty) can slip the field. I think Danny Mullins is the number 1 candidate to get caught up in watching other horses rather than riding his own race. He's constantly at it & around Chelthenam he'll get murdered if he does it. I can't call it & I don't want to call it but I do think we could be in for a shock.

Hulk Hands · 19-02-2014 01:35AM

Huntley wrote: »

ROR ran a totally different race last year than 2012. I thought that was glaringly obvious.

Something will force the issue. As is always the case. Take in to account it is widely known how to get Hurricane Fly beat, and the quality horses in the field, and it is easily predictable what will happen.

Personally can't see which of the main contenders is going to cut its own throat and ruin their chance simply for the good of getting HF beat. Jezki being forced on to make it a strong pace for MTOY is the only scenario I can envisage, but a very unlikely one. Given that its wide open and that there's such quality in there, why would someone decide to force the pace and thus greatly aid classy horses like MTOY and OC just to get HF beat? Surely that's counterproductive. They also tried to get HF beat that way last year and it backfired massively, with none of them able to sustain that gallop. You've said plenty of times that an even galllop like 2012 is the way to beat him, but given that it's happened once, it's a theory and not proven, holding no more weight than the theory that he was sick. I'm on OC at 10s e/w and am happy with that, but im starting to come to the conclusion that this could suit HF perfectly, reasonably slowly run and on easy ground. I'll be considering backing him also, provided it's 4/1+

Huntley · 19-02-2014 02:07AM

There is a method to the madness behind ROR trying to make all last year. Nothing in behind had the class to force the issue when he needed a breather. This field is different. You won't have everything sitting in behind at a sedate pace happy to leave Hurricane Fly have a crack at them. Some rag like Grumeti or something will force the issue, TNO and Jezki will be ridden prominently to ensure that when the tempo subsides they can force it once more.

The excuses for 2012 were him not being right and being left too much to do/poor ride. The latter was rubbished last season when they tried to ride him more prominently and he lost his position by the time they turned down the back. He was stretched and only came back on terms when the pace collapsed. Had something been able to force the pace when the leader needed a breather, as ROR did to Overturn in 2012, I'd like to see how the race would have developed. If people can't see this evident flaw in HF than fair enough.

Reasonably slowly run? Don't set yourself up for the disappointment, slow Champion Hurdles don't happen provided the ground isn't a mess.

Hulk Hands · 19-02-2014 02:19AM

I very much doubt Grumeti will run. Alan King or the owners have no reason to pacemake either. Don't think 2011 was a strong pace either. Anyway, not going to get into an argument. To you're credit or detriment, ive never seen you change your opinion on anything until proven wrong after the fact, so cant imagine you will here no matter what argument anyone makes.

mdwexford · 19-02-2014 02:24AM

Just watched last year again for the first time since the day.

I thought HF was under more pressure and further back than he actually was, he was pushed along for a couple of strides and then he was right back on the bridle and he had them stone dead two out.

Hulk Hands · 19-02-2014 02:38AM

Agree. It was around the 4th hurdle (a poor jump didnt help matters). A group 2 flat horse is never going to be in bother after that distance traveled no matter what pace theyre going. Basically Ruby panicked for a few strides and pushed HF to keep up, which he did handily enough. Ruby has said that if he sat off completely, he'd have come down the hill hard on the steel and won easily

2014 Champion Hurdle

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