2014 Champion Hurdle

Third to Inglis drever? And what baracouda second?

Who won the GC that year? War of attrition was it?

mulbot wrote: »

ur just missin my point completely-it doesn't look from what we've seen that he will just bottom out if he front runs,and lookin at the 2012 is an example of what a front runner can do-MTOY wud be left struggling along with HF if that happened

MTOY travels better the quicker they go imo.

jimjamcos wrote: »

Have you watched The Sunday Forum? Just watching it here and at the point where it shows Mullins interview post-race yesterday. It was beyond strange. He was hemin and hawin talking jibberish about ratings and stones and even took a few seconds to calculate what UDS needed to find. Had all the looks of a man trying to convince himself!

Not a hope of him turning up, sadly.

Haven't seen it, I was away all day.

I just can't understand why you would not send your very good horse to the CH to help another owner in your trainers yard, its mind blowing.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

But that was for you (I backed him too). But plenty of very shrew judges were on the Kauto bandwagon. In turn, plenty of joe mugs were on Denman too. It was a market that was formed over the course of a year with the betfair market run by shrewd, punters, the bookies market by compilers and the on course books largely through the money they seen. They came to the conclusion that Kauto was a more likely winner by a decent margin.

There was far more lay person money on Kauto by virtue of the fact they had backed him in previous King Georges and he was the reigning champ, Denman was a novice the year before. But over the course of the year Kauto was the champ and was clear favourite and as far as I remember Denman was around 5/1 before his Hennessy win, the markets had from March to November with the majority of money coming for Kauto as Denman was still a novice until he ran. There would also be lay person money for Ruby.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Your ramblings about Ruby 'knowing' there was no chance Kauto would beat Denman but choosing him out of loyalty are completely nonsensical.

Not sure how you can say it is nonsensical, Denman was always suited by galloping left handed tracks Kempton was Kautos ideal track, this was common knowledge and I would be amazed if Ruby didn't know. If it was Kauto V Denman in Kempton, Kauto is the obvious pick.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. The shortest price is who the traders and, increasingly these days, which horse the betfair market, run by professional traders, deems to be fav. I'll give you a simple soccer example. Olyimpiacos 9/4, Draw 11/5, United 5/4 in a few weeks wit Boyles. Who are Boyles gonna see all their money on there? Obviously all their customers are British and Irish, and the general public rarely backs the draw. 90% of bets will be on United, and they'll be a big loser. So why don't they just go 1/3 on United seeing as thats all anyone is backing? Bookmaking doesnt work like that. They just have to give a price shorter than the true 100% price they calculate, and hope that over the course of the year the well backed selection gets beaten enough for them to profit (it always does).

Based on the odds the bookies gave Kauto a 52% chance of winning and Denman about a 30% chance of winning, barring taking Kauto on then they must surely have a bigger liability if he wins. From what I remember both were odds against the morning of the race, it would quite a bold move on their part to take on the reigning champ given the money gambled on the race so they obviously shortened him up and eased Deman to mitigate their liability.

The football example is very simplistic, Man Utd have a massive amount of fans, in racing we may like certain horses but I don't know many that back a horse everytime he runs just because.