2014 Champion Hurdle

ste2010 · 15-02-2014 12:49AM

tomaussie wrote: »

Thanks Jim. This is the kind of opinion I was looking for.

I'm not happy to hear it as I really want to back OC and quite heavily too. Damn. Don't know what to do now. Hopefully somebody can put up a good counter argument to yours.

ps, go Ade !!!! What a spot by the way.

Honestly of all the races on at the festival the champion is not the one to be going in heavy...faugheen is one I'll be going in heavy on. Last instalment ew another

ste2010 · 15-02-2014 01:02AM

tomaussie wrote: »

Yeah Ste but it's the jockey I was looking for an opinion on. I'm already convinced by the horse and will either back it or have no bet.

He's another young jockey with some learning curves ahead of him. The instructions won't matter as much in the champion as I've no doubt whatever way you look at it something is going to set a blistering pace as its the only way hurricane fly will be beaten. I think we're the jockey might lack awareness is in tactical races, this won't be particularly tactical in that everyone knows the story of the race hypothetically. It's about where the horses sit behind. I honestly wouldn't worry about it if your into
Our Conor. He's on my shortlist but so is Annie power, the new one and un de sceaux. It's difficult race to predict I wouldn't be going mad on
It

tomaussie · 15-02-2014 01:10AM

Perfect Ste. Exactly what I wanted to hear. That's me going in Bollock deep.

Bluefox21 · 15-02-2014 01:17AM

You're just doing the exact opposite of what he said!

There's better videos out there but this is nice and short

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOc5prK35oQ

I think it's fair to say Danny couldn't have given him a better ride, Ruby hit the last fence and reeled him in without even having to shake him up too much!!!

Harry Angstrom · 15-02-2014 03:10AM

tomaussie wrote: »

Perfect Ste. Exactly what I wanted to hear. That's me going in Bollock deep.

The stats are completely against Our Conor. The Sun Alliance Hurdle/Neptune has proven to be the best yardstick in recent years for finding the following season's Champion Hurdle horse, as far as novices/juveniles are concerned. I'll be very surprised if Our Conor finishes in front of The New One.

prettyboy81 · 15-02-2014 07:58AM

Tic Toc Tic Toc until just after 8 to see if UDS runs today. Really hoping he does good card down for Gowran today.

ste2010 · 15-02-2014 12:12PM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

The stats are completely against Our Conor. The Sun Alliance Hurdle/Neptune has proven to be the best yardstick in recent years for finding the following season's Champion Hurdle horse, as far as novices/juveniles are concerned. I'll be very surprised if Our Conor finishes in front of The New One.

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

Bluefox21 · 15-02-2014 12:56PM

ste2010 wrote: »

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

How though? See my previous post (last page). 'It's pretty obvious that......' How is it pretty obvious? What has he done this year to suggest that it is pretty obvious!? It is pure speculation that he will improve to the level required to beat the three favourites. At this point you are just misleading people like tomaussie into betting on something they clearly don't really know that much about!

tomaussie · 15-02-2014 01:01PM

Bluefox21 wrote: »

How though? See my previous post (last page). 'It's pretty obvious that......' How is it pretty obvious? What has he done this year to suggest that it is pretty obvious!? It is pure speculation that he will improve to the level required to beat the three favourites. At this point you are just misleading people like tomaussie into betting on something they clearly don't really know that much about!

Not true. I backed OC last year and want to back him again this year.

I was looking for opinions on the abilities of the jockey as he has received some heat on this forum recently and I don't see enough to judge him myself.

I'll be backing OC or having no bet in the race. Jimjam and Ste gave me their opinions on the jockey. That's what I was looking for. Feel free to add your opinion on the jockey dude.

I have enough of an eye for a horse myself but I only get to see a few meetings a year these days.

yaboya1 · 15-02-2014 01:02PM

ste2010 wrote: »

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

Brave Inca was only third the year after he won the Supreme. The last winner of that race to follow up was Bula in 1971!

mulbot · 15-02-2014 01:11PM

ste2010 wrote: »

The most important stat of all. Juveniles and novices winning the champion the season after novice/juvenile running. Katchit was the last. Brave inca I think was the one before so the stats are against all of them. But it's pretty obvious this year that stat will
More than likely be broken.

hardy eustace won a novice race in 03 before goin on to win the next 2 CH races,no reason our conor cant break that stat too

Malarkey121 · 15-02-2014 01:21PM

Great to see the video of Dessie Hughes yard on the morning line, like the remarks from Dessie also, I am biased but the horse OC looked a picture and much stronger.

bring it on!

jimjamcos · 15-02-2014 01:25PM

Malarkey121 wrote: »

Great to see the video of Dessie Hughes yard on the morning line, like the remarks from Dessie also, I am biased but the horse OC looked a picture and much stronger.

bring it on!

I thought the horse himself looked happier with the jock on his back too! :P

Dessie must stand there every morning thinking "God, I wish that lad was still on him".

Bluefox21 · 15-02-2014 01:36PM

tomaussie wrote: »

Not true. I backed OC last year and want to back him again this year.

I was looking for opinions on the abilities of the jockey as he has received some heat on this forum recently and I don't see enough to judge him myself.

I'll be backing OC or having no bet in the race. Jimjam and Ste gave me their opinions on the jockey. That's what I was looking for. Feel free to add your opinion on the jockey dude.

I have enough of an eye for a horse myself but I only get to see a few meetings a year these days.

Sorry man I just get overly defensive when it comes to Hurricane Fly! Like I said, my own personal opinion is that the jockey will make a big difference. Our Conor is a fantastic horse but very competitive race and not really one to be lumping on.

Cannot wait for this race - here's hoping all five are neck and neck at the bottom of the hill!

BumperD · 15-02-2014 01:37PM

Lets hope they are neck and neck jumping the last

RichieLawlor · 15-02-2014 02:41PM

The might be neck and neck jumping the last but they will all be 4 lengths behind The New One crossing the line

ste2010 · 15-02-2014 03:15PM

Bluefox21 wrote: »

How though? See my previous post (last page). 'It's pretty obvious that......' How is it pretty obvious? What has he done this year to suggest that it is pretty obvious!? It is pure speculation that he will improve to the level required to beat the three favourites. At this point you are just misleading people like tomaussie into betting on something they clearly don't really know that much about!

Your missing the point..I'm not referring to our conor. I'm referring to any juvenile or novice who contends the champion hurdle the following season. The stat will be broken this march

ste2010 · 15-02-2014 03:18PM

mulbot wrote: »

hardy eustace won a novice race in 03 before goin on to win the next 2 CH races,no reason our conor cant break that stat too

I'm not saying he won't...I'm saying the stat will be broken because of the number of horses out of juvenile an novice last season...IF hurricane fly loses that is

hucklebuck · 15-02-2014 04:00PM

Stats are for twats in bowler hats.

12 of the last 12 winners have a a vowel in their name, zxfgyhgf won it 13 years ago.

7 of the last 7 winners had previously ran on a racecourse.

13 of the last 14 winners had male jockeys on board.

hucklebuck · 15-02-2014 04:01PM

ste2010 wrote: »

I'm not saying he won't...I'm saying the stat will be broken because of the number of horses out of juvenile an novice last season...IF hurricane fly loses that is

Montjeu's have a terrible record at Cheltenham, yawnnnnn!

mulbot · 15-02-2014 04:04PM

ste2010 wrote: »

I'm not saying he won't...I'm saying the stat will be broken because of the number of horses out of juvenile an novice last season...IF hurricane fly loses that is

oh it will be a novice all right i agree,wud be nice for HF to win,just dont see it happening for him this time around

ste2010 · 15-02-2014 04:22PM

As Duncan bannatyne says "I'm out"

Crash Bang Wall · 15-02-2014 04:25PM

Hi,

I dont want to start a new thread as my query doesnt warrant it, and I dont want to derail this one either....Im just looking for opinions on 4 Cheltenhm bets

Entering a sports predictions comp, and 4 Qs relate to Cheltenham, and Im just looking for one or 2 opinions on what Im predicting. Not really a big horse racing gambler so any ideas/alternatives welcome.

Top Trainer......Willie Mullins
Top Jockey.......Ruby
Gold Cup..........Bobs Worth
Champion Hurdle...Our Conor

Thanks

mulbot · 15-02-2014 04:51PM

wonder after seeing UDS just win will we get "news" in a week or two of HF scoping badly and missing cheltenham!!!

carpothepunk · 15-02-2014 05:08PM

Don't be absolutely ridiculous

mulbot · 15-02-2014 05:18PM

carpothepunk wrote: »

Don't be absolutely ridiculous

:D:D,

UrbanSea · 15-02-2014 06:37PM

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

Hi,

I dont want to start a new thread as my query doesnt warrant it, and I dont want to derail this one either....Im just looking for opinions on 4 Cheltenhm bets

Entering a sports predictions comp, and 4 Qs relate to Cheltenham, and Im just looking for one or 2 opinions on what Im predicting. Not really a big horse racing gambler so any ideas/alternatives welcome.

Top Trainer......Willie Mullins
Top Jockey.......Ruby
Gold Cup..........Bobs Worth
Champion Hurdle...Our Conor

Thanks

All fairly solid. First two are odds on, Bob's Worth around 2/1 and Our Conor has a very good chance 5/1.

Crash Bang Wall · 15-02-2014 07:51PM

UrbanSea wrote: »

All fairly solid. First two are odds on, Bob's Worth around 2/1 and Our Conor has a very good chance 5/1.

Thnks man.....would they be your choices?

jimjamcos · 15-02-2014 08:16PM

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

Thnks man.....would they be your choices?

All your choices are solid. Ruby and Willie look certs, CH is very hard to call but OC should go close and Last Instalment could be worth considering as an alternative to BW. BW the more solid option though.

mulbot · 15-02-2014 08:49PM

Crash Bang Wall wrote: »

Thnks man.....would they be your choices?

our conor and bobs worth-good value there,-does anyone think there might be better value for top jock other than ruby(no nicholls horses,no chase wins since 2009) coupled with the fact mullins chase record there isn't great(2 wins in last 3 years) obviously they have the hurdle horses but maybe there some value elsewhere

2014 Champion Hurdle

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