2014 Champion Hurdle

Twiston Davis on TNO.... Backed TNO last time out and won't be backing again. I'll be on the HF train for the first time at Cheltenham!

When I said that TNO needs to be droped on the line I was exaggerating to an extent but have a look at his defeat agains At Fishers Cross last year and don't take my word for it Twiston Davies Jnr and Snr have both been quoted as saying that he needs to be held on to for as long as possible, my point been Hurricane Fly can do it either way. Its also worth noteing that TNO has only ever won one race over 16f, a 4 runner event against ROR and trees.

With regards to MTOY, while the last run was encouraging from a battling perspective I have absolutely no doubt that again iin that regard Hurricane FLy holds the trump card with him, and in refernce to that last race he still allowed TNO to almost get back on terms despite him going through the last.

If UDS runs I wouldnt see Our Conor as the biggest benificary, it would be TNO for me, personally I cant see him running and the hype is laughable with rgard to the horse, visually impressive horses with far better formlines have been found out and I wouldnt expect anything differenet here.

The New One will battle all the way to the line. The drawback is Sam Twiston Davies. He always seems to blame himself whenever he gets beat. I can't see My Tent Or Yours getting up the hill, based on his performance in last year's Supreme. Our Conor has to buck the trends. Triumph Hurdle winners generally have a poor record in the Champion, Katchit excepted. Un De Sceaux has plenty to prove. It's between the current champion and the obvious pretender to his crown TNO, in my opinion.

Gowran in doubt for tomorrow. So if UDS doesn't run, Willie will have his reason for the owner not to send him over to the Festival.

Hopefully they some how manage to get Gowran on tomorrow.

RichieLawlor wrote: »

One could argue that his run in the supreme was the equal of any of those at the time, and that he ran into a monster on the day

One could argue anything but one would not neccessarily be right!

Huntley wrote: »

I'd agree but it isn't a case of him not getting the hill. That term is reserved for horses who usually fall into a hole quite rapidly and weaken. MTOY didn't do that in the Supreme. Visually the two in front are pulling away from a stretched field in behind.

What have I overlooked that leads you to believe he didn't get up the hill?

MTOY came there swinging into the home turn. Granted, Ruby rode a very canny race from the front but I genuinely believe that if MTOY was a Champion Hurdle horse he'd have picked up Champagne Fever easily enough.
Champagne Fever might very well win the Arkle but he wouldn't have a hope of winning the Champion Hurdle.

I'll be backing MTOY to win the Aintree hurdle, even though it's over half a mile extra, but I wouldn't be touching him over 2m 1f of a well contested Champion Hurdle.

hucklebuck wrote: »

UDS and Our Conor are the key to this race for me.

If UDS is as good as I think he will be and maintains the gallop, he wins.

If UDS cant maintain the gallop I think it will be Our Conor holding off HF.

Without UDS its a whole different race

Mullins has said he has a stone to find with HF

Not doubting his ability....he has looked impressive winning but he's beaten f*ck all

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

If he was a Champion Hurdle horse, he should've beaten Champagne Fever. Willie Mullins must be laughing. If anybody fancies MTOY for the Champion Hurdle, surely Willie should be keeping Champagne Fever to hurdles? The fact that he's jumping fences says it all.

Why did Simonsig go over fences when he likely had a Champion Hurdle at his mercy. Dawn Run? Even horses like Best Mate and Moscow Flyer and Sprinter Sacre. Fences are the pinnacle of the national hunt game. Why would you keep a horse bred and with the scope for chasing over hurdles? Hurdlers are admirable. However jumping 8 hurdles on the way to victory is never going to be as prestigious or likely profitable as having a true champion chaser.

I'm sorry I have to interject here and feel free to quote! I simply cannot understand the love in for Our Conor. Fair enough he blitzed the field last year but he has not looked like he can beat any of the top three in the betting at any point this year. Can people backing him at least admit it is purely on last seasons form? Or provide another reason?

Don't forget Hurricane Fly had a poor workout in the run up to Leopardstown and still when Ruby pressed the accelerator he coasted clear. It's not as if it was that quick a race either. Someone asks if the jockey will make a difference? Of course it will... a massive one! This is probably the most competitive Champion Hurdle in living memory even if Annie Power and UDS go elsewhere.

Fair enough at 6/1 there's an outside e/w chance based on last year but for my money Hurricane Fly beats him every time and the New One & MTOY will run Hurricane Fly extremely close. That leaves no room for Our Conor and that's assuming the two others don't run and ruling out Jezski!

In all honesty this isn't really a race to bet on. The cruising speed at the close of races demonstrated by the New One and MTOY is phenomenal but my heart says that if Hurricane Fly is in contention that champion spirit will kick in and he'll find that extra gear!

Only because I'll be sickened if I don't I'll put a small bet on HF and a tri-cast with the two others. I'd be interested to hear other opinions. And to reiterate, the jockey is going to make a huge difference - there is no way the winner will be slingshotting clear of anyone!!!

tomaussie wrote: »

Guys I'm finding myself with a difficult decision.

I had the biggest bet of my life last year on Our Conor and I really want to go in stronger this year and I would in a heartbeat but for the negative vibes on here about the jockey.

It seems the tactical side may be more relevant this year so am I right to be tentative ? How poor is this jockey ?

I think Our Conor is at the very least a free EW bet in that I think he'll be placed at worst but I would prefer to go in big for a win.

Is the jockey good enough to read the race as it unfolds and can he be trusted to make the quick decisions needed depending on how it unfolds ?

He's average, at best. Lacks the experience/tactical awareness and weak in a finish. He's enough not to be backing OC at current price imo.