beef price tracker

mikeoh · 07-02-2014 08:41AM

What price are they paying for 16 month old bulls??

Farmer Pudsey · 07-02-2014 10:03AM

just do it wrote: »

It's a tricky one isn't it. The one thing I know is fighting never solved anything. The IFA in fairness to them I believe are a powerful lobbiest group and good at it. However it's ingrained in the national psyche to bash factories, department etc etc etc. I hear it at the mart, I hear it at my discussion group etc. How is an IFA president remembered? By the best protest he organised? (I'm gone off on a tangent here so to come back on topic...) I suppose generally as farmers we work away as islands taking in info from here, there and everywhere. Maybe we need some organised structure such as:
A demand database overseen by someone like Bord Bia or ICBF

Factories feed in forecast demand for all the different categories at what times of the year

Factories feed in how much of this they intend to supply themselves

Farmers could then see what best suits them and target a particular sector

Farmers feed this into the database

Then if there oversupply/ undersupply of certain categories action could be taken well ahead of the farmer coming to the end of his finishing period

Fairly aspirational stuff and requires alot of trust which for sure and certain is severely lacking. But ultimately team effort is best. I remember arguing 20yrs ago with a friend of mine from Tyrone that there could be a peace agreement. Now who would have thought there would be a power sharing executive?

As it stands at the minute farmers have least control over price along the supply chain. Supermarkets have the dominant position, followed by factories with the farmers being price takers. Without some form of co-operative effort farmers will always remain price takers.

As a practical first step I'd like to see the journal follow up on last week's article and tell us how to produce the desired carcase profitably. The journal has a large part to play in this.

Also if the factories are buying animals to fatten maybe this is where the market now is, getting them to within 100 days of slaughter?

This in grand in theory, however the factory;s have it already. They get this data from the CMS which they have total access to. The big issue I think is there access to it and there ability to put animals into lairages/finishing units themselves. 20K cattle spread over 3-6 weeks can at certain times of year can control the factory price.

History seems to tell us that when the kill exceeds 30K the factory's do not compete for cattle. On that I see that while the kill was 3K above last year 3-4 weeks it has declined to 1K now is supply tightening word on the ground is that it is not. If this is so factory's are controlling numbers that they kill to stretch out supply.

The big question is can we supply cattle and make a profit. As I posted earlier in the thred to Rancher when he had sucklers that he could produce a bullock 400kg at 22 months and a heifer 350 at 18 months. Running a sucker unit/HA at 95% calves slaughtered to born this would return 1500/HA at todays prices

At 5/KG this would return 1800/HA annd at 1.3 units/HA it would return 2K/HA. Can this be done profitably. This is carrying to finish. I did a calulation on finishing suckler cattle about 3 years ago and left it because of the margin and the capital tied up. During the high beef prices I may have lost some profit as prices drop I will make it back I think on poorer quality cattle. I only consider myself a trader.

At the above prices can farmers make money but the bullock longterm is more than likly too heavy especially if a U animal. Farmers too often look at the optimistic outlook rather than the most pessimistic. They also fail to sit down and calculate across a range of senario's. My opinion if farmers did this the suckler herd would be chopped in half.

rushvalley · 07-02-2014 07:33PM

is there any demand for 12 month old bulls these days ?

Robson99 · 08-02-2014 06:48PM

4.00 base for heifers next week. Talk of more cuts over the next few weeks
Yet store cattle remain a good trade in the marts [heifers]

Something is going to give. Store heifers are going to have to come back to 2.00/kg or less for R+ grades if it is going to leave any profit for the finisher

tanko · 08-02-2014 07:16PM

Robson99 wrote: »

4.00 base for heifers next week. Talk of more cuts over the next few weeks
Yet store cattle remain a good trade in the marts [heifers]

Something is going to give. Store heifers are going to have to come back to 2.00/kg or less for R+ grades if it is going to leave any profit for the finisher

R+ store heifers selling for less than €2/kg in february:eek::eek:. What about the man selling them? That won't solve anything.

I don't mean to have a go at you but it's costing a serious amount of money to produce cattle from scratch at the moment.

Robson99 · 08-02-2014 07:50PM

tanko wrote: »

R+ store heifers selling for less than €2/kg in february:eek::eek:. What about the man selling them? That won't solve anything.

I don't mean to have a go at you but it's costing a serious amount of money to produce cattle from scratch at the moment.

I know tanko and no offence taken but it will work its way down the ladder. If im only getting say 3.80-4.00 base for heifers then I cant be paying anymore than 2.00/kg liveweight.

It doesnt solve anything but these price cuts dont just effect the finisher they also effect the suckler cow system. There will be pain for all

tanko · 08-02-2014 08:01PM

I could be wrong about this but I think I read somewhere that if a finisher sells beef at €4/kg the carcass is sold for €9/kg on average by the supermarkets etc.

This would mean that the factories and supermarkets have €5/kg to divide amongst themselves for just cutting up the beef and putting it on a shelf, while the farmer/ finisher get less for all the work they put in.

Unless there is a fairer distribution of the pie then we're wasting our time.

Are these figures wrong?

mf240 · 08-02-2014 08:21PM

Then there Is the tongue, liver,and all the offal and the hides all of which the factories sell and is removed before the carcase is weighed,

I'm told this fifth quarter pays the wage bill in most factories.

Farmer Pudsey · 09-02-2014 01:10AM

tanko wrote: »

R+ store heifers selling for less than €2/kg in february:eek::eek:. What about the man selling them? That won't solve anything.

I don't mean to have a go at you but it's costing a serious amount of money to produce cattle from scratch at the moment.

At present the price of some store cattle is not reflecting the poorer factory price. As the heifer kill increases as fewer hold them for breeding will we see the base drop. In the UK the price of heifers is below bullocks.

I also see that AA and HE weanlings and stores do no reflect the 4/kg base. Prices may well hold up until mid summer as summer grazer spend all the money they have made over the last two years.

blue5000 · 09-02-2014 01:48AM

Robson99 wrote: »

I know tanko and no offence taken but it will work its way down the ladder. If im only getting say 3.80-4.00 base for heifers then I cant be paying anymore than 2.00/kg liveweight.

It doesnt solve anything but these price cuts dont just effect the finisher they also effect the suckler cow system. There will be pain for all

Another couple of years you won't have to worry about what price you'll be paying for R and U grade heifers, there simply won't be any:(

Robson99 · 09-02-2014 12:37PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Another couple of years you won't have to worry about what price you'll be paying for R and U grade heifers, there simply won't be any:(

It will break a lot of good farmers hearts if they have to be fattening Zebras and dairymens cast offs

simx · 09-02-2014 01:29PM

Robson99 wrote: »

It will break a lot of good farmers hearts if they have to be fattening Zebras and dairymens cast offs

I know of lads that I reckon simply wouldn't do it, best of the best all they want

mf240 · 09-02-2014 01:34PM

Robson99 wrote: »

It will break a lot of good farmers hearts if they have to be fattening Zebras and dairymens cast offs

Some of the shrewdest beef men I know buy a lot of friesans.

simx · 09-02-2014 02:02PM

mf240 wrote: »

Some of the shrewdest beef men I know buy a lot of friesans.

Would totally agree with you. If you were around a mart late in evening you would see a lot of black and whites going into lorries that lads would be finishing, have 75% fr here but I don't know would I consider myself shrewd

bob charles · 09-02-2014 03:48PM

mf240 wrote: »

Some of the shrewdest beef men I know buy a lot of friesans.

There must be loads of shrewd beef men as I know plenty that wont entertain friesians:rolleyes:, wonder how the farmer who buys 50/50 get on.

whats worst, none of these shrewd people seem to be able to make money. maybe we just have too a high opinion of our peers

Farmer Pudsey · 09-02-2014 03:59PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Another couple of years you won't have to worry about what price you'll be paying for R and U grade heifers, there simply won't be any:(

Robson99 wrote: »

It will break a lot of good farmers hearts if they have to be fattening Zebras and dairymens cast offs

simx wrote: »

I know of lads that I reckon simply wouldn't do it, best of the best all they want

200 euro out of a donkey is the same as 200 euro out of a thoroughbred only you have less money tied up in cattle. having said that I be slow to finish Friesians out of a shed. It make little difference what you finish or how efficient an animal is to convert if you but it at the wrong price. Friesians are long term cattle. while prices were rising better quality cattle will leave you more money but as prices fall poorer quality cattle leave more money.

As John Shirley use to quote it never pays to breed a bad one it often pays to buy one.

rancher · 09-02-2014 11:17PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

200 euro out of a donkey is the same as 200 euro out of a thoroughbred only you have less money tied up in cattle. having said that I be slow to finish Friesians out of a shed. It make little difference what you finish or how efficient an animal is to convert if you but it at the wrong price. Friesians are long term cattle. while prices were rising better quality cattle will leave you more money but as prices fall poorer quality cattle leave more money.

As John Shirley use to quote it never pays to breed a bad one it often pays to buy one.

See on The Farming Forum that ABP is putting a lot of Polish Friesian beef in to England and undercutting even the Irish beef, apparently there's a glut in Poland
A farmer phoned tonight saying he's waiting three weeks to get inspec continental heifers killed, anyone else have inspec cattle held up

TUBBY · 09-02-2014 11:37PM

rancher wrote: »

See on The Farming Forum that ABP is putting a lot of Polish Friesian beef in to England and undercutting even the Irish beef, apparently there's a glut in Poland
A farmer phoned tonight saying he's waiting three weeks to get inspec continental heifers killed, anyone else have inspec cattle held up

yes rancher. Rang round for prices last week and was told in two factories that unless they dealt with you a good bit, I be waiting that there is a glut. Factory I normally go to was no prob though. This for in spec bullocks.

Muckit · 09-02-2014 11:51PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

200 euro out of a donkey is the same as 200 euro out of a thoroughbred

So long as lads aren't looking in at your donkey sanctuary and saying ' the real ass is inside'

coolshannagh28 · 10-02-2014 12:00AM

rancher wrote: »

See on The Farming Forum that ABP is putting a lot of Polish Friesian beef in to England and undercutting even the Irish beef, apparently there's a glut in Poland
A farmer phoned tonight saying he's waiting three weeks to get inspec continental heifers killed, anyone else have inspec cattle held up

ABP stooping to new lows all part of their long term strategy to buy Irish beef as cheap as possible and take low margin on high volume into UK multiples .
Is this use of Polish beef and their own feedlots strategically. anticompetitive and it does beggar belief that this company was bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.
The cartel controls the market and its about time the govt addressed it

bob charles · 10-02-2014 12:19AM

unfortunately we are competing with every one when it comes to supplying export. What gives Irelands producers the right to moan about Polish beef being sold into the UK market vs our own meat. Poland always export a large quantity of meat into UK so not allot has changed. ABP are now a international company so they will trade meat into markets where it gives the best return. Customers want cheap product and majority of the time they dont care where it comes from or under what conditions its produced. If its being produced within the same legislation etc we can complain. UK beef was way over priced for the last 12 months as there was alternative forces at plan I would think. Market is going to realign over the next few months

UK Customs Figures not showing any noticable increases up to December
http://www.farminguk.com/News/Figures-show-very-little-increase-in-Polish-beef-imports_27280.html

rancher · 10-02-2014 12:25AM

bob charles wrote: »

unfortunately we are competing with every one when it comes to supplying export. What gives Irelands producers the right to moan about Polish beef being sold into the UK market vs our own meat. Poland always export a large quantity of meat into UK so not allot has changed. ABP are now a international company so they will trade meat into markets where it gives the best return. Customers want cheap product and majority of the time they dont care where it comes from or under what conditions its produced. If its being produced within the same legislation etc we can complain. UK beef was way over priced for the last 12 months as there was alternative forces at plan I would think. Market is going to realign over the next few months

''high prices cure high prices'' If a product gets too expensive people will look elsewhere,
Good to hear that polish beef isn't flooding into uk, TFF farmers panicking I suppose

coolshannagh28 · 10-02-2014 12:39AM

Wonder how those French farmers would react if they were being undermined by a company which survived on taxpayers money

bob charles · 10-02-2014 12:43AM

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Wonder how those French farmers would react if they were being undermined by a company which survived on taxpayers money

I wonder did there protest actually get them anywhere, then again they didnt seem to me like men that were going taking No for an answer

coolshannagh28 · 10-02-2014 01:26AM

bob charles wrote: »

I wonder did there protest actually get them anywhere, then again they didnt seem to me like men that were going taking No for an answer

Beats ambivilance, they are one of the most effective lobby groups in Europe

freedominacup · 10-02-2014 01:36AM

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Beats ambivilance, they are one of the most effective lobby groups in Europe

How are they effective? Are the french seeing a lot of new entrants and an increase in farmer numbers? Noisy is not the same as effective.

coolshannagh28 · 10-02-2014 09:01AM

Well off topic but France has a very robust agricultural sector gaining the lions share of CAP backed up by very militant farmers and widely supported by the people

just do it · 10-02-2014 10:43AM

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Well off topic but France has a very robust agricultural sector gaining the lions share of CAP backed up by very militant farmers and widely supported by the people

And I believe they also have a lot of middle men that we don't have here.

bob charles · 10-02-2014 10:56AM

but what they are doing in that video clip is an attack on the rest of society. How do the normal people of that city feel for some ignorant people come into town and fire sh*t everywhere. Imagine the shoe was on the other foot and say rubbish trucks started tipping waste all around Dublin, and knocking down the gates of Leinster house with a JCB. Throwing a couple of dead cattle at the butt of the gates is unfair on the animal to begin with and see these buffoons cheering it is in bad taste. Thats sort of crap doesnt do anything for public relations. Since I was knee high I have heard of French protestors firing sh*te about etc. I would like to know what they have achieved. Negotiation is nearly always the busy way to achieve something aslong as you have good negotiators on your side. There wasnt much sympathy for the ESB pre christmas when they were threatening to have power outages

rancher · 10-02-2014 11:11AM

bob charles wrote: »

unfortunately we are competing with every one when it comes to supplying export. What gives Irelands producers the right to moan about Polish beef being sold into the UK market vs our own meat. Poland always export a large quantity of meat into UK so not allot has changed. ABP are now a international company so they will trade meat into markets where it gives the best return. Customers want cheap product and majority of the time they dont care where it comes from or under what conditions its produced. If its being produced within the same legislation etc we can complain. UK beef was way over priced for the last 12 months as there was alternative forces at plan I would think. Market is going to realign over the next few months

UK Customs Figures not showing any noticable increases up to December
http://www.farminguk.com/News/Figures-show-very-little-increase-in-Polish-beef-imports_27280.html

Again just to confirm you're right, a letter from ABP to english farmers

SIR, - I read with interest Patsy Hunter's article 'Beef brands devalued' last week.

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The article tries to draw a link between increasing imports from Poland and reductions in the price of Scottish cattle and included comments from the National Beef Association appearing to link this to ABP's expansion in the Polish market.
Our experience in the market is not consistent with the NBA's comments, and we have seen no increasing pressure to use Polish rather than British beef.
ABP's export levels from Poland to the UK have remained at the same level for the last two years and, most recently, rather than seeing increasing exports, our Polish business has actually seen a 25-30% decrease in monthly volumes sold into the UK.
The major driver of the current beef price is a fall in demand. In the 12 weeks to December 8, the volume of beef sold by retailers in the UK fell by almost 6%.
The significance of the impact of weaker demand on pricing should not be under-estimated, neither should the fact that the Scottish beef price is still 25p higher than it was in January, 2013. Both these points appear to have been ignored in the comment of the NBA's Chris Mallon.

The plant we recently acquired in Poland is strategically located to serve ABP customers across mainland Europe and, as the only significant exporting country in continental Europe, it is ideally placed to support our growing business in Italy, Portugal, Germany, and Spain.

In relation to our UK operation, we have invested more than £100m during the last five years to expand and modernise our British business and today we are processing 20% more British cattle than we were in 2008. In the last 12 months we have processed more Scottish born, reared and slaughtered cattle than at any time in the company's history and we do not import any cattle from Northern Ireland for slaughter.
I can also confirm we recently obtained planning permission to expand our operations in Perth. We are extremely proud of the quality Scotch Beef we process and we will continue to invest in the industry's future, both here in Scotland and throughout the UK.
Frank Ross,
General Manager,
ABP, Perth.

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