Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

17-01-2014 11:30AM

matthew8 wrote: »

With the Ospreys team released is it just me or is 16 points an absolute joke of a handicap? Defo have to back Ospreys there. I reckon Northampton will cover the 15 in their game but if Castres continue to really have a go they might not.

Agree, don't know really how we can be +17 favs in some places.

We've played Ospreys in Dublin already this season, a 29-29 game where we scored 3 tries. Outside of that game, Ospreys have only conceded 12 tries in 11 games in the League, and 7 in 5 games in the Heineken Cup, with a points difference of -30 for their 5 HEC games.
We beat them by 10 points in Wales which was agreed to be an excellent result.
Since then they've been within 10 at Northampton, within 10 away at Castres, and beat them at home. They shipped a fair few vs Northampton at home (losing by 12) but they haven't been beaten by more than that at any stage this season (one loss to Glasgow at home 16-28).

Ospreys have no issue coming to Dublin and putting in winning performances, have no fear whatsoever of the RDS, and know exactly our game as they see it every other week.

We're missing SOB and Tipuric has been an absolute thorn so many times when we can't get fast ball. Jennings hasn't been top drawer this season, I think he can do a job at minimizing Tipuric's influence, but he won't be able to stop him like O'Brien can.

To be honest, I saw the 10/1 offered on an Ospreys' win as a value bet, but I'm going to do the emotional hedge and back the +17 HC instead.

Hoping for a 22-9 win, with 4 tries and 1 conversion to 3 penalties.

No, you're a... · 17-01-2014 12:27PM

New Balance: 35.08

- 1 unit; Northampton v Castres; Northampton (-15.0) @ 2.00
- 1 unit; Leinster v Ospreys; Ospreys (+16.0) @ 2.10

Old Balance: 33.08

thomond2006 · 17-01-2014 02:46PM

Old Balance: 37.19 units

- 4 units (10/11) Connacht +25
- .5 units (20/1) Connacht to win
- 2 units (6/4) Ulster to win
- 1 unit (11/10) Ospreys +16
- .75 units (10/11) Racing Métro +17
- .25 units (10/3) Steffon Armitage try in 80 minutes
- .25 units (11/4) David Smith try in 80 minutes

New Balance: 28.44 units

Gracelessly Tom · 17-01-2014 03:22PM

Have done the follwing for the weekend.....

Accum on:
Ospreys +16 @11/10
Saints -15 @evs
Toulouse -21 @10/11
Connacht +22 @10/11
Toulon -6 @10/11
Cardiff -4 @10/11
Leicester -3 @10/11
Munster -17 @10/11
Scarlets to win @13/10

And a treble on Toulon -6, Cardiff -4 and Scarlets to win.

jamiedav2011 · 17-01-2014 03:26PM

Sean Cronin anytime tryscorer at 10/3 for me tonight.

matthew8 · 17-01-2014 06:28PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Shocking weekend (down to 47.22), Saracens 1 unit 2.9 to win.

46.22 after that gruesome weekend. 1 unit on Ospreys +16.5 (1.88) and Northampton -14.5 (1.9). So many bets I fancy this weekend (Toulouse -21, Saracens -22, Munster -17, Clermont -17, Montpellier -22 and Harlequins -3) could be wonderful but could get ugly.

LeeroyJones · 17-01-2014 06:30PM

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Sean Cronin anytime tryscorer at 10/3 for me tonight.

Tempted by that alright. He's made a number of breaks in recent games but failed to get over, something's gotta give!

Judgement Day · 17-01-2014 06:52PM

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Tempted by that alright. He's made a number of breaks in recent games but failed to get over, something's gotta give!

Careful, I'm thinking of going for him too and the last Leinster try scorer I backed was Sean O'Brien....:D

sydthebeat · 17-01-2014 07:26PM

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Sean Cronin anytime tryscorer at 10/3 for me tonight.

Odds not long enough for me.

sydthebeat · 17-01-2014 07:31PM

on dan biggar myself at 10/1

Jimmy was wet paper last weekend.

matthew8 · 18-01-2014 12:34AM

matthew8 wrote: »

46.22 after that gruesome weekend. 1 unit on Ospreys +16.5 (1.88) and Northampton -14.5 (1.9). So many bets I fancy this weekend (Toulouse -21, Saracens -22, Munster -17, Clermont -17, Montpellier -22 and Harlequins -3) could be wonderful but could get ugly.

44.22 courtesy of Ian Evans. Badly need to win a lot of these next bets.

18-01-2014 10:44AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Agree, don't know really how we can be +17 favs in some places.

We've played Ospreys in Dublin already this season, a 29-29 game where we scored 3 tries. Outside of that game, Ospreys have only conceded 12 tries in 11 games in the League, and 7 in 5 games in the Heineken Cup, with a points difference of -30 for their 5 HEC games.
We beat them by 10 points in Wales which was agreed to be an excellent result.
Since then they've been within 10 at Northampton, within 10 away at Castres, and beat them at home. They shipped a fair few vs Northampton at home (losing by 12) but they haven't been beaten by more than that at any stage this season (one loss to Glasgow at home 16-28).

Ospreys have no issue coming to Dublin and putting in winning performances, have no fear whatsoever of the RDS, and know exactly our game as they see it every other week.

We're missing SOB and Tipuric has been an absolute thorn so many times when we can't get fast ball. Jennings hasn't been top drawer this season, I think he can do a job at minimizing Tipuric's influence, but he won't be able to stop him like O'Brien can.

To be honest, I saw the 10/1 offered on an Ospreys' win as a value bet, but I'm going to do the emotional hedge and back the +17 HC instead.

Hoping for a 22-9 win, with 4 tries and 1 conversion to 3 penalties.

Red card with 60 minutes left was worth about 21 points.

Not sorry to lose this one

matthew8 · 18-01-2014 01:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Red card with 60 minutes left was worth about 21 points.

Not sorry to lose this one

Never seen a red card have such an impact. Though he may have been a lion it was incredible. It was like the team threw in the towel. Never did anything after it. Although perhaps the team would have tired badly after 60 anyway.

matthew8 wrote: »

44.22 courtesy of Ian Evans. Badly need to win a lot of these next bets.

Saracens -22.5 (2) and Toulouse -21.5 (1.89). In dire straits if I lose these both but really really don't see Connacht/Zebre making a game of it.

sydthebeat · 18-01-2014 01:41PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Never seen a red card have such an impact. Though he may have been a lion it was incredible. It was like the team threw in the towel. Never did anything after it. Although perhaps the team would have tired badly after 60 anyway.

The certainly did not throw in the towel and die after the red card, not quite sure how you saw that. ..

matthew8 · 18-01-2014 02:04PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

The certainly did not throw in the towel and die after the red card, not quite sure how you saw that. ..

It was certainly an awful performance anyway. Lost the next 60 minutes 33-0 and could have been quite a bit more.

matthew8 · 18-01-2014 06:38PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Never seen a red card have such an impact. Though he may have been a lion it was incredible. It was like the team threw in the towel. Never did anything after it. Although perhaps the team would have tired badly after 60 anyway.

Saracens -22.5 (2) and Toulouse -21.5 (1.89). In dire straits if I lose these both but really really don't see Connacht/Zebre making a game of it.

Still 44.22 units, with one on each of Leicester to win (1.73) and Montpellier -21.5 (1.92).

matthew8 · 19-01-2014 12:02AM

matthew8 wrote: »

Still 44.22 units, with one on each of Leicester to win (1.73) and Montpellier -21.5 (1.92).

Mother of god. These 2 Heineken weekends slaughtering me. Even still, a unit on Quins to win (1.75), Munster -16.5 (1.88) and Clermont -16.5 (1.9). Going to have to place far fewer bets per weekend in the future.

thomond2006 · 19-01-2014 11:47AM

Just realised PP refunded my tryscorer bets because of a money back special.

No, you're a... · 19-01-2014 11:14PM

No, you're a... wrote: »

New Balance: 35.08

- 1 unit; Northampton v Castres; Northampton (-15.0) @ 2.00
- 1 unit; Leinster v Ospreys; Ospreys (+16.0) @ 2.10

Old Balance: 33.08

- 2 units; Saracens v Connacht - Connacht @ 1.90 (+23.0)

- 2 units; Clermont Auvergne v Racing Metro - Racing Metro @ 2.10 (+17.0)

- 1 units; Munster v Edinburgh - Munster @ 2.00 (-17.0)

New Balance: 30.08 units

matthew8 · 19-01-2014 11:20PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Mother of god. These 2 Heineken weekends slaughtering me. Even still, a unit on Quins to win (1.75), Munster -16.5 (1.88) and Clermont -16.5 (1.9). Going to have to place far fewer bets per weekend in the future.

At least some money got salvaged. 46.75 units now, but a long wait until the next Aviva/Rabo games.

antogz1979 · 20-01-2014 03:03PM

Leicester +14 against Clermont. I'm on that, I know Leicester are limited but that is a huge cap. Munster are -3 which is worth a bet as well. This must be the worst Toulouse team in years and Munster should win this. Ulster are -3 as well which is worth a bet. They have Toulon and Leinster priced up right at + 7. I'd be leaning towards Leinster myself.

thomond2006 · 24-01-2014 04:39PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 37.19 units

- 4 units (10/11) Connacht +25
- .5 units (20/1) Connacht to win
- 2 units (6/4) Ulster to win
- 1 unit (11/10) Ospreys +16
- .75 units (10/11) Racing Métro +17
- .25 units (10/3) Steffon Armitage try in 80 minutes (refunded - MBS)
- .25 units (11/4) David Smith try in 80 minutes (refunded - MBS)

New Balance: 28.44 units

New Balance: 33.94 units

thomond2006 · 24-01-2014 04:42PM

Old Balance: 33.94 units

- 4 units (10/11) Racing Metro -5
- 2 units (5/6) Toulon to win
- 1.5 units (10/11) Ireland Wolfhounds to win
- 1 unit (4/5) Bayonne to win
- .5 units (11/4) Castres to win
- .5 units (15/8) Oyonnax to win
- .25 units (13/2) Rory Kockott try in 80 minutes

New Balance: 24.19 units

matthew8 · 24-01-2014 05:43PM

.5 units on Stade -7.5 2.3. Nothing else this weekend so I simply must turn to the T14. Only half stakes on it until I get some confidence I know what's going on. Liking Racing and Perpignan on the handicaps.

Thomond, any idea how you perform on the Top 14 in particular? Obviously not a great season so far for you, but do you think you're breaking even on it?

thomond2006 · 24-01-2014 05:57PM

matthew8 wrote: »

.5 units on Stade -7.5 2.3. Nothing else this weekend so I simply must turn to the T14. Only half stakes on it until I get some confidence I know what's going on. Liking Racing and Perpignan on the handicaps.

Thomond, any idea how you perform on the Top 14 in particular? Obviously not a great season so far for you, but do you think you're breaking even on it?

I couldn't tell you matthew tbh.

I might keep a spreadsheet next season to document my failures! :pac:

Judgement Day · 25-01-2014 01:20PM

Whole weekends gambling budget gone on this one - probably be 0-0 at HT.

sydthebeat · 25-01-2014 06:37PM

Looks like 2 from 3 So far . Nice judgement

Judgement Day · 25-01-2014 08:34PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

Looks like 2 from 3 So far . Nice judgement

I'm so happy - three weeks in a row ....Barney Curley eat your heart out.

thomond2006 · 25-01-2014 08:35PM

Just need Toulon to win now and this will be a great betting weekend!

matthew8 · 25-01-2014 10:07PM

matthew8 wrote: »

.5 units on Stade -7.5 2.3. Nothing else this weekend so I simply must turn to the T14. Only half stakes on it until I get some confidence I know what's going on. Liking Racing and Perpignan on the handicaps.

Thomond, any idea how you perform on the Top 14 in particular? Obviously not a great season so far for you, but do you think you're breaking even on it?

Never backed unfortunately. Both beat the handicaps but the Perpignan one shifted and Toulouse's team sheet put me off. Nevertheless, up to 47.4.

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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