Gameweek 7 Transfers

SlickRic · 04-10-2013 3:16pm

i've already done Benteke ----> Giroud and Lamps

> Siggy for a 4pt hit.

i'm not taking an 8 pointer to get rid of Ben Arfa. tor risky IMO.

Dont be at yourself · 04-10-2013 3:22pm

bezuaua wrote: »

Greetings!

With all the speculation around Ben Arfa would it be wise to take a hit (-4pts) and dump him for Siggy?
He didn’t perform well last weekend, is going do drop 0.1 today and as things stand, is in doubt for this GW..
On the other end… I would like some spurs cover and Siggy looks in form for the present GW (home against west ham) and for the next GW’s – Aston Villa (A); Hull (H); Everton (A); Newcastle (H).

Already swapped (No) goldado for the ear-bitter Suarez (looking good with the Armband..)

My current team:

Mignolet / Davis

Zabaleta / Vidic / Coleman / Dawson / Chester

Ozil / Moses / Ben Arfa / Redmond / Ward-Prowse

Suarez / Giroud / Rooney

All opinions are more than appreciated!

Siggy's not guaranteed to start, and Ben Arfa's not guaranteed to be dropped. You've to weigh up the likelihood of each, as well as the potential of scoring/assisting/keeping a clean sheet to tell you if the 4pt swing is worthwhile. Here's a quick back-of-napkin calculation:

X = chance of playing >= 60 mins
Y = chance of getting a clean sheet
Z = chance of scoring a goal
W = chance of providing an assist

Ben Arfa:
X: 50%
Y: 25%
Z: 10%
W: 10%

Siggy:
X: 70%
Y: 35%
Z: 20%
W: 20%

Ben Arfa (.5 * 2) + (.25 * 1) + (.1 * 5) + (.1 * 3) = 2.05 points
Siggy (.7 * 2) + (.35 * 1) + (.2 * 5) + (.2 * 3) = 3.35 points

Forever And Ever · 04-10-2013 3:25pm

This Rooney dilemma is doing my head in.

If he's not playing, Im on Suarez

IvySlayer · 04-10-2013 3:41pm

Rooney out, Suarez in and captained

roryc · 04-10-2013 3:43pm

Captaining Suarez either way, he's guaranteed to play.

Forever And Ever · 04-10-2013 3:54pm

IvySlayer wrote: »

Rooney out, Suarez in and captained

Has it been confirmed hes not playing?

Mr.Prodston · 04-10-2013 3:58pm

Sky Sports News said he should be fit for the game against Sunderland...that's what we know which isn't much but I think he'll start personally. I have nothing more to back that up with. I have him and I'm keeping him anyway.

alchemist33 · 04-10-2013 4:09pm

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Siggy's not guaranteed to start, and Ben Arfa's not guaranteed to be dropped. You've to weigh up the likelihood of each, as well as the potential of scoring/assisting/keeping a clean sheet to tell you if the 4pt swing is worthwhile. Here's a quick back-of-napkin calculation:

X = chance of playing >= 60 mins
Y = chance of getting a clean sheet
Z = chance of scoring a goal
W = chance of providing an assist

Ben Arfa:
X: 50%
Y: 25%
Z: 10%
W: 10%

Siggy:
X: 70%
Y: 35%
Z: 20%
W: 20%

Ben Arfa (.5 * 2) + (.25 * 1) + (.1 * 5) + (.1 * 3) = 2.05 points
Siggy (.7 * 2) + (.35 * 1) + (.2 * 5) + (.2 * 3) = 3.35 points

I applaud your industry, sir. I don't have either, but I'd rate Barfa's chances of scoring at least as highly as Siggy. Siggy would still come out on top though.

alchemist33 · 04-10-2013 4:11pm

It should also be noted Moyes was extremely coy about injuries and line-ups when at Everton. Looks like that's going to continue.

FHFC · 04-10-2013 4:22pm

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Siggy's not guaranteed to start, and Ben Arfa's not guaranteed to be dropped. You've to weigh up the likelihood of each, as well as the potential of scoring/assisting/keeping a clean sheet to tell you if the 4pt swing is worthwhile. Here's a quick back-of-napkin calculation:

X = chance of playing >= 60 mins
Y = chance of getting a clean sheet
Z = chance of scoring a goal
W = chance of providing an assist

Ben Arfa:
X: 50%
Y: 25%
Z: 10%
W: 10%

Siggy:
X: 70%
Y: 35%
Z: 20%
W: 20%

Ben Arfa (.5 * 2) + (.25 * 1) + (.1 * 5) + (.1 * 3) = 2.05 points
Siggy (.7 * 2) + (.35 * 1) + (.2 * 5) + (.2 * 3) = 3.35 points

I love it!! My -4 transfer would be Barfa to Michu, if Michu had an easier fixture I'd go for it, so using your excellent formula....

Ben Arfa:
X: 50%
Y: 25%
Z: 10%
W: 10%

Michu:
X: 100%
Y: 40%
Z: 30%
W: 30%

Ben Arfa (.5 * 2) + (.25 * 1) + (.1 * 5) + (.1 * 3) = 2.05 points
Michu (1 * 2) + (.4 * 1) + (.3 * 5) + (.3 * 3) = 4.8 points

Add in the fact that Barfa's value will fall tonight and Michu well on way to a rise....hmmm

Dont be at yourself · 04-10-2013 4:23pm

alchemist33 wrote: »

I applaud your industry, sir. I don't have either, but I'd rate Barfa's chances of scoring at least as highly as Siggy. Siggy would still come out on top though.

Barfa's chance for goal/assist/clean sheet are lower because he's not as likely to start as Siggy (according to the rumours!).

FHFC · 04-10-2013 4:35pm

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Barfa's chance for goal/assist/clean sheet are lower because he's not as likely to start as Siggy (according to the rumours!).

Total FPL William Hills odds analysis has anytime goal odds at Siggy 40%, 27% HBA and 35% Michu. However these odds as based on assumption all will start, so your not far wrong I'd say.

Forever And Ever · 04-10-2013 4:52pm

Ugh

Jesu, Moyes

No Rooney then I'll take a gamble on Negredo

eh i dunno · 04-10-2013 4:58pm

Have Rooney giroud and lukaku. Intended bringing in Suarez for giroud this week but should I bring him in for Rooney if Rooney is a doubt

Andersonisgod · 04-10-2013 5:49pm

So I have Rooney and Hazard in my side, both are apparently doubts. Which one does everybody think is the more likely of the two to start?

Forever And Ever · 04-10-2013 5:57pm

Andersonisgod wrote: »

So I have Rooney and Hazard in my side, both are apparently doubts. Which one does everybody think is the more likely of the two to start?

With Mata's recent form, Hazard may well be benched, regardless of fitness

Lucas Hood · 04-10-2013 6:07pm

Michu could be out of Sundays game .
Head injury from last night needs to assessed .

http://www.swanseacity.net/news/article/michu-st-gallen-1095769.aspx

Mr.Prodston · 04-10-2013 6:08pm

Michu may be a slight concern, I'd be wary over bringing him in. I have him, am keeping him and expect him to play but just something to take note of perhaps if you have other injury problems.

http://www.swanseacity.net/news/article/michu-st-gallen-1095769.aspx

Necronomicon · 04-10-2013 6:16pm

Soon after the last GW I did Yaya and Suarez for Van Persie and Moses for -4. I was contemplating making that -8 to get Ben Arfa out, but then I realised that since I bought him at 7.4, he's only dropping in value back to the price I paid for him so the drop doesn't affect me. He'll be my first transfer out next week unless he does something special at the weekend.

Iused2likebusts · 04-10-2013 6:24pm

Forever And Ever wrote: »

This Rooney dilemma is doing my head in.

We sort of guessed that I think Ive read a post from you in every single thread asking about him:pac:. I dont know if he will play but I wouldnt pay any heed to what moyes said in his earlier press conference. He was the same at everton gave nothing away.

Santi101 · 04-10-2013 6:32pm

Rooney will play - pointless stuff from Moyes, they're gonna beat Sunderland regardless. One of the easiest games of the year I'd say.

Forever And Ever · 04-10-2013 6:38pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

We sort of guessed that I think Ive read a post from you in every single thread asking about him:pac:. I dont know if he will play but I wouldnt pay any heed to what moyes said in his earlier press conference. He was the same at everton gave nothing away.

Sorry

Ive kept him in and will shut up now!

narfsnonsense · 04-10-2013 6:40pm

Half thinking of hanging onto this weeks tranfer. Any glaring transfers required (apart from subs)?

Mig
zabaletta / coleman / shaw / enrique
Ozil / eriksen / yaya
Lukaku / sturridge / giroud

ward prouse / hernendez / whittaker

i know i could look at going 3 4 3 esp with city vs everton as im heavy with both, but think i'll appreciate 2 transfers after the break more. Dont really feel the need to do sturridge to suarez just yet. Any thoughts?

Iused2likebusts · 04-10-2013 6:42pm

Forever And Ever wrote: »

Sorry Ive kept him in and will shut up now!

Id wish you luck only I dont have rooney:D

Iused2likebusts · 04-10-2013 6:44pm

narfsnonsense wrote: »

Half thinking of hanging onto this weeks tranfer. Any glaring transfers required (apart from subs)?

Mig
zabaletta / coleman / shaw / enrique
Ozil / eriksen / yaya
Lukaku / sturridge / giroud

ward prouse / hernendez / whittaker

i know i could look at going 3 4 3 esp with city vs everton as im heavy with both, but think i'll appreciate 2 transfers after the break more. Dont really feel the need to do sturridge to suarez just yet. Any thoughts?

I seen on ssn that shaw is a doubt with illness. Once he plays I think your good to go. Could maybe change one of your non playing subs. Not a glamarous transfer I know.

Santi101 · 04-10-2013 6:44pm

Anyone thinking of dropping coleman?

City could be ripe for a slip but everton have looked less solid in recent games. I'll be playing 2 cheaper mids in barkley(also at city) and whittingham(home to newcastle) if i go that way, but its just a feeling.

Forever And Ever · 04-10-2013 6:55pm

Who's the liklier starter for Mna Utd tomorrow?

Evans

Or

Smalling?

jamesbere · 04-10-2013 7:36pm

Considering rooney might be a doubt, I'm going to captain Negredo. A risk but it might pay off.

FHFC · 04-10-2013 7:37pm

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

Michu may be a slight concern, I'd be wary over bringing him in. I have him, am keeping him and expect him to play but just something to take note of perhaps if you have other injury problems.

http://www.swanseacity.net/news/article/michu-st-gallen-1095769.aspx

That changes the oul formula a bit! Thanks for highlighting.

Forever And Ever · 04-10-2013 7:38pm

jamesbere wrote: »

Considering rooney might be a doubt, I'm going to captain Negredo. A risk but it might pay off.

I was actually gonna bring in Negredo for Rooney.

Do you think Negredo will start?

Gameweek 7 Transfers

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