BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Sonnenblumen

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

So how do you feel after wasting your time, time which you will never recover? Jaysus:o

Scortho

Seamus1964 wrote: »

Back to 21c again
So.. is it good time to sell now or what?

It's heading towards September, never a good month.
Personally I felt it was time to sell with a view to buying again if the price falls to a level in the mid teens.

However it's up to you. If they go up to 30 cent, I ain't taking the blame if you've sold. Likewise if they go down to 10 and you held I ain't taking the blame.

It's all your own decision.
With mortgage arrears growing, with unemployment near stagnant and with stress tests coming up next year, to me they look overvalued at 21cent.
They were my reasons for getting out.

euroboom13

Hold on to these shares long term!!

We are seven years on from our "banking crisis"
Seven years worth of college grads wiating for a market turn!
54% price reduction.
Buyers are ready .

Once banks start lending in at the bottom, we will be back to a rising market!

Rising market will narrow all bad loan book problems,creating an opportunity,for any recovering bank!

Every country has pillar banks,which are very attractive for pension funds,once confidence returns,investments will come.

You will do well to find a better opportunity to equire a blue chip investment for pennies.....but IF boi can survive ,that is what you will have achieved.

go long.

Good Luck.
"you get paid for taking risk that other people think is risky,you dont particularly get paid for taking actual risks" Wilbur Ross

Seamus1964

I do like your realistic advise,Scortho
But I do like your advise, Euroboom too - very optimistic

Well there is a still bit a room for BOI share price go up - both realistic and optimistic ways
If top price should'nt exeed 60c, I can see freefloat price around 45c mark, off course if everything goes well..

Bought 10c, sold 16c but s**t did'nt happen as most of us predicted so bought back 18c , still happy - still happy. .

It's predictions ahead as we'll find out what's on the radar for the coming year, I hoping to see 30c mark by end of this year

euroboom13

23.36cent.... what a run .....state exit in talks behind close doors ,i suspect..

lucky john

euroboom13 wrote: »

23.36cent.... what a run .....state exit in talks behind close doors ,i suspect..

If it keeps up this momentum they may considered a rights issue soon enough.

green_bow

Seamus1964 wrote: »

I do like your realistic advise,Scortho
But I do like your advise, Euroboom too - very optimistic

Well there is a still bit a room for BOI share price go up - both realistic and optimistic ways
If top price should'nt exeed 60c, I can see freefloat price around 45c mark, off course if everything goes well..

Bought 10c, sold 16c but s**t did'nt happen as most of us predicted so bought back 18c , still happy - still happy. .

It's predictions ahead as we'll find out what's on the radar for the coming year, I hoping to see 30c mark by end of this year

value hunter and gekko ignore the role sentiment plays in the market , sentiment for Ireland and bank of Ireland is improving internationally , that this might be unfounded is irrelevant , at least in the short term

ranger4

lucky john wrote: »

If it keeps up this momentum they may considered a rights issue soon enough.

WHY? There could be an agreement to extend Step up clause between gov and bank until bank on more solid footing, Such a deal would be advantageous for both bank and gov.

gordongekko

ranger4 wrote: »

WHY? There could be an agreement to extend Step up clause between gov and bank until bank on more solid footing, Such a deal would be advantageous for both bank and gov.

the interest rate increases if this is not repaid.

roro2

gordongekko wrote: »

the interest rate increases if this is not repaid.

Interest rate won't increase - just the redemption value.

A rights issue is on the cards, for at least a portion of the preference shares. There could be an argument to postpone the step-up date but I don't see it happening once the capital could be raised. I can't see the govt risking it being construed as letting the bank off the hook at the expense of the state.

gordongekko

roro2 wrote: »

Interest rate won't increase - just the redemption value.

A rights issue is on the cards, for at least a portion of the preference shares. There could be an argument to postpone the step-up date but I don't see it happening once the capital could be raised. I can't see the govt risking it being construed as letting the bank off the hook at the expense of the state.

if they don't pay it back they can't issue dividends

lucky john

ranger4 wrote: »

WHY? There could be an agreement to extend Step up clause between gov and bank until bank on more solid footing, Such a deal would be advantageous for both bank and gov.

I suppose they could try and raise the money they need without going to the share holders but its unlikely. I'll be amazed if either the bank or the government want to extend this beyond March. The extra cost to the bank is one incentive but the main reasons are political in my view. The way I see it Enda ,Michael Richie and Angela will be desperate for the positive PR involved in putting a bank back in private hands. The1.5 billion cheque + the holy grail of "bank normalization" + the Bloomberg interview and all before the local elections will be impossible for them to resist.

littlemac1980

Here's Wilbur Ross's views - for what their worth

See about 1:20.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdMWLKb7lyA&feature=youtu.be

dharn

Interesting

gordongekko

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Here's Wilbur Ross's views - for what their worth

See about 1:20.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdMWLKb7lyA&feature=youtu.be

in work can't view it. Anyone care to give me a summary.

Scortho

gordongekko wrote: »

in work can't view it. Anyone care to give me a summary.

In relation to boi, nothing Richie Boucher hasn't told you already.

littlemac1980

Nice to see the positive momentum is continuing at a steady pace, and continuing to regularly break through annual highs.

ranger4

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Nice to see the positive momentum is continuing at a steady pace, and continuing to regularly break through annual highs.

SP down almost 15% from recent 0.24c high, declines mainly due to uncertainties with possible rights issue & dilution for exsisting shareholders to pay for govs pref shares before march deadline.

Sonnenblumen

ranger4 wrote: »

SP down almost 15% from recent 0.24c high, declines mainly due to uncertainties with possible rights issue & dilution for exsisting shareholders to pay for govs pref shares before march deadline.

My understanding is that the bank is planning another rights issue, and as is normal practice existing shareholders can decide yes/no to participate.

Those not wishing to participate will effectively suffer dilution, but I believe the bank will be in a stronger place post any new round of funding (to discharge Gov's 15% Pref shares) and will be exclusively a privately owned bank. This will hopefully pave the way eventually for more upside on SP?

ranger4

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

My understanding is that the bank is planning another rights issue, and as is normal practice existing shareholders can decide yes/no to participate.

Those not wishing to participate will effectively suffer dilution, but I believe the bank will be in a stronger place post any new round of funding (to discharge Gov's 15% Pref shares) and will be exclusively a privately owned bank. This will hopefully pave the way eventually for more upside on SP?

Hopefully large percentage of funds needed to redeem prefs can be found through debt issuance along with reduced rights issue, I for one not happy to be asked in short space of few years for 3rd time to stump up again.

gordongekko

ranger4 wrote: »

Hopefully large percentage of funds needed to redeem prefs can be found through debt issuance along with reduced rights issue, I for one not happy to be asked in short space of few years for 3rd time to stump up again.

did they not have a rights issue a few years ago at .50cent?

Sonnenblumen

ranger4 wrote: »

Hopefully large percentage of funds needed to redeem prefs can be found through debt issuance along with reduced rights issue, I for one not happy to be asked in short space of few years for 3rd time to stump up again.

The last one was around 12cent, so plenty of upside since! I see no reason for the next round not to be any different. Still if it accelerates SP growth and gets the Gov Monkey off the bank's back, it's hardly a bad thing?

At least it'll be great to see the whacky lefties forced to turn their focus elsewhere?

Comordha

Price continues to rise. Surely based on the bank's current market capitalisation & the size of the overall Irish market & the maximum profit potential of such a limited market there has to be a near term limit to how far this can actually go? Latest opinions please. Already overvalued?

Value Hunter

This is why they are rising,

useurname wrote: »

Well they are still undervalued, afterall they traded somewhere in the region of 12 euro at one stage, and money always returns to at least its previous so in time an investment now of 5k would (41666 shares) sold at €12 a share returns €500,000

at the time I wanted them at .12 and would have achieved €1mil return on a 5k investment in 10 years!!

Min I was allowed to invest was 30K at time if enquiry

Its scary how little people understand, but still spend thousands 'investing'

Cute Hoor

Pretty obvious mistake above.
For me, BOI defies logic, nobody (that I know of) has any concept of the extent of their eventual mortgage problem (among other issues), the amount of shares in issue would probably cover Ireland, and yet the sp continues to rise and rise, more than doubled (117%) in a year? Incredible. And yesterday as Noonan announced a bank levy that will relieve BOI of probably another €200m over the next 3 years, what happens, the sp rises by 4%.

Edit: Wilbur Ross is a happy man!

euroboom13

They have problems ,but ones that a rising market will improve and evenually fix.Even none performing loans will have a cash return of at least 30% on liqiudation,and less than 15% none performing?

Investing in banks is about future earnings, not about book value and current returns.

This isn`t worth 0 cent if liquidated today,but it wont be liqiudated and will be here for future post imf expanding economy!

stackerman

euroboom13 wrote: »

They have problems ,but ones that a rising market will improve and evenually fix.Even none performing loans will have a cash return of at least 30% on liqiudation,and less than 15% none performing?

Investing in banks is about future earnings, not about book value and current returns.

This isn`t worth 0 cent if liquidated today,but it wont be liqiudated and will be here for future post imf expanding economy!

Agree, and what do you think will happen to the loan book when interest rates rise ? But sure all logic has long since gone out the window, just look at the S&P ffs.

FYI word is that the big accounting firms are recommending to their clients to withdraw cash from BOI (precautionary), due to recent court actions. Pls don't ask for proof, I don't have it

euroboom13

stackerman wrote: »

Agree, and what do you think will happen to the loan book when interest rates rise ? But sure all logic has long since gone out the window, just look at the S&P ffs.

FYI word is that the big accounting firms are recommending to their clients to withdraw cash from BOI (precautionary), due to recent court actions. Pls don't ask for proof, I don't have it

Central banks appear to aqree on keeping interest rates low for next 3yrs,and i would think they will be chasing inflation when they do increase.That would mean property values(and rent) increasing before repayments increase.That may cause pain to borrowers but banks will be repossesing in a rising market which wouldnt effect earnings!I also think that those who are making repayments at the moment ,will still be able too,in an improving/expanding economy.

As for advise from big accountancy firms ,they do mislead alot.;)

euroboom13

all this qe that should be effecting (positively)gold/silver/and currencies,where is it going!

djia/s&p/ftse/iseq

They are the only rising boat i can see.20% this yr

Shurwhynot

What affect will this rights issue have on share price?

Have been speculating on whether to purchase BOI shares now for a couple of months, and have only seen them rise.

Would I be better off waiting until after the rights issue? I realise that there is no guarantee that these shares will continue to rise, but realistically they aren't going to plummet either.