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Heineken & Amlin Cup 2013/14 General Discussion

245

Comments

  • #52
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    We're talking about H Cup.

    We need to move a level beyond 'they are in leinster's group, they must be real good'. That's utter nonsense that no knowledgeable poster will believe.

    Case closed.

    Again, you said Ospreys are "complete losers", this is not true. Not sure what you're on about in relation to people thinking sides in Leinsters group are automatically good or "knowledgeable posters"

    Get back to me if you're interested in backing up your claim that Ospreys are a bad side


  • #53
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Rightwing wrote: »
    We're talking about H Cup.

    We need to move a level beyond 'they are in leinster's group, they must be real good'. That's utter nonsense that no knowledgeable poster will believe.

    Case closed.

    Toulouse, Leicester, Biarritz, Munster, Toulon, Clermont.

    What do these perennial HEC losers all have in common?

    They've all failed to beat the Ospreys in Swansea in the last 6 seasons. In fact, they've only lost once at home in the last 6 seasons.

    That is all people are saying - not that the Ospreys are contenders or have a huge HEC pedigree.


  • #54
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Toulouse, Leicester, Biarritz, Munster, Toulon, Clermont.

    What do these perennial HEC losers all have in common?

    They've all failed to beat the Ospreys in Swansea in the last 6 seasons. In fact, they've only lost once at home in the last 6 seasons.

    That is all people are saying - not that the Ospreys are contenders or have a huge HEC pedigree.

    Which is all in response to the claim that Ospreys are "complete losers". Which is completely untrue, both at HC and Rabo level


  • #55
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    I'm gonna assume this is a thinly veiled potshot at me.

    When exactly did I say your quote? You did read my post on it before? I actually tried to justify my point, something which you (from my own POV) don't seem to do.

    Case Closed indeed, sorry mate but I'm making a point to not respond to you.

    Incorrect, nothing to do with you, or indeed any one individual.


  • #56
    thomond2006
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Incorrect, nothing to do with you, or indeed any one individual.

    Fair enough. I try to justify posts as much as possible!


  • #57
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Toulouse, Leicester, Biarritz, Munster, Toulon, Clermont.

    What do these perennial HEC losers all have in common?

    They've all failed to beat the Ospreys in Swansea in the last 6 seasons. In fact, they've only lost once at home in the last 6 seasons.

    That is all people are saying - not that the Ospreys are contenders or have a huge HEC pedigree.

    Indeed but Edinburgh beat Toulouse en route to a H cup semi, something the ospreys have failed to reach yet. The 2 groups are easy, no question about that.


  • #58
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Indeed but Edinburgh beat Toulouse en route to a H cup semi, something the ospreys have failed to reach yet. The 2 groups are easy, no question about that.

    Obviously there is a question if literally everyone on this thread disagrees with you.

    Again, saying Ospreys are complete losers and saying their part of an easy group. ? Do you really think two fixtures against the Osrpeys will be easy for Leinster?


  • #59
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    Obviously there is a question if literally everyone on this thread disagrees with you.

    Again, saying Ospreys are complete losers and saying their part of an easy group. ? Do you really think two fixtures against the Osrpeys will be easy for Leinster?

    Anyone who thinks that is a tough group simply isn't at the races imho.

    Sometimes I wonder do the Welsh teams even care. Cardiff Blues a prime example, but at least they managed to get to a semi a few years back, and indeed were unlucky not to get to a final.


  • #60
    former legend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Indeed but Edinburgh beat Toulouse en route to a H cup semi, something the ospreys have failed to reach yet. The 2 groups are easy, no question about that.

    RTE's take:
    http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/european/2013/0605/454758-rugby-draws/

    Midi Olympique reckon it's the pool of death;
    http://www.rugbyrama.fr/rugby/coupe-d-europe/2012-2013/h-cup-castres-dans-la-poule-de-la-mort-clermont-avec-le-racing_sto3789783/story.shtml

    The Guardian reckon it's the most demanding assignment:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jun/05/heineken-cup-draw-english-clubs

    I could go on. Leinster have a very tough group.


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  • #61
    Lelantos
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,612 ✭✭✭Lelantos


    former legend wrote: »
    RTE's take:
    http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/european/2013/0605/454758-rugby-draws/

    Midi Olympique reckon it's the pool of death;
    http://www.rugbyrama.fr/rugby/coupe-d-europe/2012-2013/h-cup-castres-dans-la-poule-de-la-mort-clermont-avec-le-racing_sto3789783/story.shtml

    The Guardian reckon it's the most demanding assignment:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jun/05/heineken-cup-draw-english-clubs

    I could go on. Leinster have a very tough group.

    we'll give them Niall Ronan & they'll sail thru!
    :)


  • #62
    thomond2006
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Anyone who thinks that is a tough group simply isn't at the races imho.

    *Lack of self-restraint wins out again*

    One word to the above: WHY?


  • #63
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Anyone who thinks that is a tough group simply isn't at the races imho.

    Sometimes I wonder do the Welsh teams even care. Cardiff Blues a prime example, but at least they managed to get to a semi a few years back, and indeed were unlucky not to get to a final.

    Most people here not at the races so? Most of these well respected papers and media outlets not at the races either?
    former legend wrote: »
    RTE's take:
    http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/european/2013/0605/454758-rugby-draws/

    Midi Olympique reckon it's the pool of death;
    http://www.rugbyrama.fr/rugby/coupe-d-europe/2012-2013/h-cup-castres-dans-la-poule-de-la-mort-clermont-avec-le-racing_sto3789783/story.shtml

    The Guardian reckon it's the most demanding assignment:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jun/05/heineken-cup-draw-english-clubs

    I could go on. Leinster have a very tough group.


  • #64
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    former legend wrote: »
    RTE's take:
    http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/european/2013/0605/454758-rugby-draws/

    Midi Olympique reckon it's the pool of death;
    http://www.rugbyrama.fr/rugby/coupe-d-europe/2012-2013/h-cup-castres-dans-la-poule-de-la-mort-clermont-avec-le-racing_sto3789783/story.shtml

    The Guardian reckon it's the most demanding assignment:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jun/05/heineken-cup-draw-english-clubs

    I could go on. Leinster have a very tough group.

    The most knowledgeable of all, the bookies, they don't.


  • #65
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    *Lack of self-restraint wins out again*

    One word to the above: WHY?

    What do you mean ?


  • #66
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The most knowledgeable of all, the bookies, they don't.

    What bookies have said it's not a tough group? :confused:


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  • #67
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    What bookies have said it's not a tough group? :confused:

    The bookies have
    Castres @ 55/1
    Ospreys @ 40/1
    Saints @ 28/1

    If you think any of those teams are doing anything more than making up the numbers fill your boots.

    However, I would suggest you don't. Even at those massive odds, it's a complete waste of money imho.


  • #68
    thomond2006
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The bookies have
    Castres @ 55/1
    Ospreys @ 40/1
    Saints @ 28/1

    If you think any of those teams are doing anything more than making up the numbers fill your boots.

    However, I would suggest you don't. Even at those massive odds, it's a complete waste of money imho.

    Why can't you tell us why you think it's an easy group instead of always referring to odds? That is what is pissing us off. Talk about players, form, past success/failure, signings/departures.


  • #69
    .ak
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The bookies have
    Castres @ 55/1
    Ospreys @ 40/1
    Saints @ 28/1

    If you think any of those teams are doing anything more than making up the numbers fill your boots.

    However, I would suggest you don't. Even at those massive odds, it's a complete waste of money imho.

    Are those odds to win the competition? If so, it doesn't make your point.


  • #70
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The bookies have
    Castres @ 55/1
    Ospreys @ 40/1
    Saints @ 28/1

    If you think any of those teams are doing anything more than making up the numbers fill your boots.

    However, I would suggest you don't. Even at those massive odds, it's a complete waste of money imho.

    You do realis that the big odds for Saints and Ospreys are a direct result of them being in such a hard group?


  • #71
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Why can't you tell us why you think it's an easy group instead of always referring to odds? That is what is pissing us off. Talk about players, form, past success/failure, signings/departures.

    this, times a million


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  • #72
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The bookies have
    Castres @ 55/1
    Ospreys @ 40/1
    Saints @ 28/1

    If you think any of those teams are doing anything more than making up the numbers fill your boots.

    However, I would suggest you don't. Even at those massive odds, it's a complete waste of money imho.

    You do realise that the reason their odds are longer are because it's unlikely that there will be more than one qualifier from the group due to the difficulty of that group?

    And that the difficulty of the group means it's unlikely that there will be a home quarter finalist from the group?

    And that the difficulty in winning a HEC given that you are away in a QF and probably SF is massive?

    A far, far , far better measure of how difficult a group is is how short a price the least likely to win the group is.

    Castres at 12s to win the group is the shortest price 'worst' team
    http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup


  • #73
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    An awful lot of general HEC talk for a Munster forum.....

    Oh and we all know about circles right!?

    circles.jpeg


  • #74
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Why can't you tell us why you think it's an easy group instead of always referring to odds? That is what is pissing us off. Talk about players, form, past success/failure, signings/departures.

    I've tried.

    Castres are like the blackburn rovers of 20 yrs ago, they've won a league, struggle in the H cup, concentrate domestically.
    Ospreys have always struggled in this competition.
    A limited munster team were able to put 50 points on the saints in 2012....wait for it - away!


  • #75
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Deleted User wrote: »
    You do realise that the reason their odds are longer are because it's unlikely that there will be more than one qualifier from the group due to the difficulty of that group?

    And that the difficulty of the group means it's likely that there will be a home quarter finalist from the group?

    And that the difficulty in winning a HEC given that you are away in a QF and probably SF is massive?

    A far, far , far better measure of how difficult a group is is how short a price the least likely to win the group is.

    Castres at 12s to win the group is the shortest price 'worst' team
    http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup


    Yep, Treviso 100/1 to come out in top of a group that rightwing said was a hard group


  • #76
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Deleted User wrote: »
    You do realise that the reason their odds are longer are because it's unlikely that there will be more than one qualifier from the group due to the difficulty of that group?

    And that the difficulty of the group means it's likely that there will be a home quarter finalist from the group?

    And that the difficulty in winning a HEC given that you are away in a QF and probably SF is massive?

    A far, far , far better measure of how difficult a group is is how short a price the least likely to win the group is.

    Castres at 12s to win the group is the shortest price 'worst' team
    http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup[/QUOTE]


    Complete and utter nonsene. The odds in Clermont's group proves that.


  • #77
    Buer
    Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The most knowledgeable of all, the bookies, they don't.

    Going on the bookies odds across the respective pools, that pool is actually deemed to be the second hardest. Now, personally, I wouldn't agree with that but if they're the most knowledgeable of all, then who are we to argue?


  • #78
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »

    Complete and utter nonsene. The odds in Clermont's group proves that.

    Could you explain how it is nonsense please? Or how on earth Clermont's group proves anything to do with what I've posted?


  • #79
    Hagz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,257 ✭✭✭Hagz


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Sometimes I wonder do the Welsh teams even care. Cardiff Blues a prime example, but at least they managed to get to a semi a few years back, and indeed were unlucky not to get to a final.

    I can see how one might think that, but I think they do care. They simply don't have the money to compete and to compound it, they aren't as lucky as we are in the sense that many welsh players have chosen to take the money in France (which is fair enough).

    Focusing on Ospreys, not only have they drawn some of the most difficult opposition in their pools over the last several years (Tigers+Toulouse/Munster+Toulon/Biarritz+Saraces/Clermont+Tigers), but they've also suffered a large outflow of quality players (Shane Williams, Lee Byrne, Mike Phillips, Marty Holah, Paul James, Tommy Bowe, Jerry Collins, James Hook etc.).

    Any of the Irish provinces would struggle to get out of such pools, and as we've seen with Munster, losing a heap of top end players is a hard thing to recover from. Putting that all to one side, I still think that they have been competitive throughout the years and visibly invested in the competition.


  • #80
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Buer wrote: »
    Going on the bookies odds across the respective pools, that pool is actually deemed to be the second hardest. Now, personally, I wouldn't agree with that but if they're the most knowledgeable of all, then who are we to argue?

    There is an element of truth in this. Not many groups stand out as being hard this year, the obvious exception being Clermonts where the bookies think there are a few contenders.


  • #81
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    I've tried.

    Castres are like the blackburn rovers of 20 yrs ago, they've won a league, struggle in the H cup, concentrate domestically.

    Football analogy, how original
    Ospreys have always struggled in this competition.

    They've underachieved. But they always get a very hard group. But even still they've beaten some very big sides at home in the HC and Leinster of all teams will not have wanted to draw them. This all flys in the face of you calling them "complete losers" when in fact they're a very successful club
    A limited munster team were able to put 50 points on the saints in 2012....wait for it - away!

    You making that sound as if Munster won by 50 points. They only won by 14. And even if they did the Saints of early 2012 are going to be very different to the saints of 13/14 who have secured the services of Corbs and North


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  • #82
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Could you explain how it is nonsense please? Or how on earth Clermont's group proves anything to do with what I've posted?

    Clermont 5/1 v Leinster 13/2
    Racing 20/1 v Saints 28/1
    Quins 25/1 v Castres 55/1

    In each of the above instance, the team from Clermonts group has a shorter price.


  • #83
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Clermont 5/1 v Leinster 13/2
    Racing 20/1 v Saints 28/1
    Quins 25/1 v Castres 55/1

    In each of the above instance, the team from Clermonts group has a shorter price.

    They are prices to win the competition.

    Not to win the group.
    Deleted User wrote: »
    A far, far , far better measure of how difficult a group is is how short a price the least likely to win the group is.

    Castres at 12s to win the group is the shortest price 'worst' team
    http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup


  • #84
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Hagz wrote: »
    I can see how one might think that, but I think they do care. They simply don't have the money to compete and to compound it, they aren't as lucky as we are in the sense that many welsh players have chosen to take the money in France (which is fair enough).

    Focusing on Ospreys, not only have they drawn some of the most difficult opposition in their pools over the last several years (Tigers+Toulouse/Munster+Toulon/Biarritz+Saraces/Clermont+Tigers), but they've also suffered a large outflow of quality players (Shane Williams, Lee Byrne, Mike Phillips, Marty Holah, Paul James, Tommy Bowe, Jerry Collins, James Hook etc.).

    Any of the Irish provinces would struggle to get out of such pools, and as we've seen with Munster, losing a heap of top end players is a hard thing to recover from. Putting that all to one side, I still think that they have been competitive throughout the years and visibly invested in the competition.

    Yes, that's a balanced post from both angles.


  • #85
    jamiedav2011
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,906 ✭✭✭jamiedav2011


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    the Saints of early 2012 are going to be very different to the saints of 13/14 who have secured the services of Corbs and North

    And the second best SH in the world atm.


  • #86
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Clermont 5/1 v Leinster 13/2
    Racing 20/1 v Saints 28/1
    Quins 25/1 v Castres 55/1

    In each of the above instance, the team from Clermonts group has a shorter price.

    Do that exact same comparison with any other group (with a focus on odds to win the group) and you can see that Leinster's group is the second hardest. It's not an easy group, it's a hard one. Not the hardest group in HC history but a tricky one nonetheless

    The papers don't think it's easy, the posters here don't, even the bookies, who you yourself said "are the most knowledgable of all" think it's the second hardest group. So basically the consensus is that it's a hard group, and certainly not an easy one as you claim


  • #87
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    jamiedav2011 wrote: »
    And the second best SH in the world atm.

    If they had a decent fly-half they'd be laughing.....


  • #88
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Deleted User wrote: »
    They are prices to win the competition.

    Not to win the group.

    Therein lies the truth.

    The pool winners is even more conclusive. They have Clermont at 1/2. Yet, they still think teams from that group are more likely to win than teams from Leinsters, and Leinster are only 8/13 to win their group.


  • #89
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    Do that exact same comparison with any other group (with a focus on odds to win the group) and you can see that Leinster's group is the second hardest. It's not an easy group, it's a hard one. Not the hardest group in HC history but a tricky one nonetheless

    The papers don't think it's easy, the posters here don't, even the bookies, who you yourself said "are the most knowledgable of all" think it's the second hardest group. So basically the consensus is that it's a hard group, and certainly not an easy one as you claim

    Guys come on....we've got someone here who, despite having had multiple detailed posts, links to media articles, information on bookies odds etc all pointing to one conclusion, will refuse to even properly discuss the topic never mind contemplate reviewing his position. This whole conversation is going all of nowhere.


  • #90
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Therein lies the truth.

    The pool winners is even more conclusive. They have Clermont at 1/2. Yet, they still think teams from that group are more likely to win than teams from Leinsters, and Leinster are only 8/13 to win their group.

    so basically you have absolutely no idea of what we are talking about.
    --

    Firstly, I explained that the prices to win the competition were implicitly adjusted to factor in the difficulty that occurs when the group is so tough. A team that can sail to 6 BP victories in an easy group, get a good seeding position and a home QF and SF slot is always going to be more likely to win the competition than a team with the exact same ability, but in a group where the seeding, and home/away QF/SF rules will 'hurt' their chances.

    Secondly, I pointed out that a good way to figure out how tough a group was was to look what price the bookie's price the worst team to win that group.

    If it's a 100/1 shot, then realistically there's only 3 teams worth talking about in that group. A closer knit distribution of prices about the entire group will always indicate a far tougher group.


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  • #91
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    Do that exact same comparison with any other group (with a focus on odds to win the group) and you can see that Leinster's group is the second hardest. It's not an easy group, it's a hard one. Not the hardest group in HC history but a tricky one nonetheless

    The papers don't think it's easy, the posters here don't, even the bookies, who you yourself said "are the most knowledgable of all" think it's the second hardest group. So basically the consensus is that it's a hard group, and certainly not an easy one as you claim

    No, if you are looking just to win the pool, then Ulster's is deemed the hardest of them all, in fact 2nd seed Leicester are slight favourites.


  • #92
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Deleted User wrote: »
    so basically you have absolutely no idea of what we are talking about.
    --

    Firstly, I explained that the prices to win the competition were implicitly adjusted to factor in the difficulty that occurs when the group is so tough. A team that can sail to 6 BP victories in an easy group, get a good seeding position and a home QF and SF slot is always going to be more likely to win the competition than a team with the exact same ability, but in a group where the seeding, and home/away QF/SF rules will 'hurt' their chances.

    Secondly, I pointed out that a good way to figure out how tough a group was was to look what price the bookie's price the worst team to win that group.

    If it's a 100/1 shot, then realistically there's only 3 teams worth talking about in that group. A closer knit distribution of prices about the entire group will always indicate a far tougher group.

    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.


  • #93
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    No, if you are looking just to win the pool, then Ulster's is deemed the hardest of them all, in fact 2nd seed Leicester are slight favourites.

    Not what I was implying, Emmets post explains how the pool odds point to it being one of the hardest groups:


    Deleted User wrote: »
    so basically you have absolutely no idea of what we are talking about.
    --

    Firstly, I explained that the prices to win the competition were implicitly adjusted to factor in the difficulty that occurs when the group is so tough. A team that can sail to 6 BP victories in an easy group, get a good seeding position and a home QF and SF slot is always going to be more likely to win the competition than a team with the exact same ability, but in a group where the seeding, and home/away QF/SF rules will 'hurt' their chances.

    Secondly, I pointed out that a good way to figure out how tough a group was was to look what price the bookie's price the worst team to win that group.

    If it's a 100/1 shot, then realistically there's only 3 teams worth talking about in that group. A closer knit distribution of prices about the entire group will always indicate a far tougher group.


  • #94
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.

    10/10


  • #95
    Buer
    Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Um, isn't Emmet qualified in statistics?


  • #96
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Buer wrote: »
    Um, isn't Emmet qualified in statistics?

    Oh deary me if that's the case.


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  • #97
    thomond2006
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.

    Oh no

    You better be a maths/probability guru to make that statement.


  • #98
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Oh no

    You better be a maths/probability guru to make that statement.

    On the contrary it's very simple.

    If the bookies have a lot of teams at a short price to win the competition (i.e. Clermont's group), we can assume that's a tough group.


  • #99
    .ak
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.

    Try engaging with the poster instead of making throw away remarks here. You've already been warned about this before. If you don't agree with him, fine, but atleast extend them the same courtesy as they are doing for you - explain your reasoning.


  • #100
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    On the contrary it's very simple.

    If the bookies have a lot of teams at a short price to win the competition (i.e. Clermont's group), we can assume that's a tough group.

    The fact that they have a weak team in the group means it is very likely that there will be two qualifiers from this group.

    Which means that the prices (to win the tournament) are shorter than tougher groups where it is likely that there will only be one qualifier.

    Groups where there are 'easy' Bonus points on offer are always going to be more likely to supply more than one qualifier than tougher groups.

    Of course, just say "nonsense" again and tell me to look at the odds.


  • #101
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    http://www.munsterrugby.ie/news/11985.php#.Ue6pnNLVD3Q

    Just sayin'
    Munster Rugby wrote:
    The general consensus among the sparse attendance at yesterday's Heineken Cup pool Draw in the Aviva Stadium was that Munster's Pool 6 was the best of the Irish lot.


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