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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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    #1382
    Spindle
    Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Sorry if this may have been posted elsewhere....accuweather have issued their 2012-13 winter weather forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Euro/winter-20122013-forecast/972170

    Going for below average in Ireland and UK (and western europe in general).

    Accuweather.com wrote:
    Another story I think may be huge is the correlation with some of the weak El Nino or neutral years Paul Pastelok has narrowed in on. Many of these years tend to have some strong wind events that bring, unfortunately, severe winds and even some major damage to Europe. I think this could be the case this year. 2007 had a storm which caused almost 5 billion Euros of damages; another storm in 1993 caused major damage also. Some of the wind reports during these storms were close to category 3 winds, so winds of over 145 knots, will cause major damage. Look for this to happen over Ireland, the U.K. and northern France and Germany into the Netherlands.
    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    .

    My problem with these type of forecasts is that they don't include anything at all about what methods they used to arrive at this forecast. At least the postman tells you he looks at berries in bushes etc. If you agree with the methods used (I don't), then at least you can take the forecast serious.

    Just for example he mentions the Jet stream heading south and a Scandi high, how did he come to this conclusion, what are the signs/patterns for this?

    I think a lot of these type forecasts are more hopecasts. Where their start point is to come up with a central theme saying something like it will be colder than average, then the rest of the forecast will lay out the conditions for this to come true (jet stream moving south, high pressure over Scandi etc).

    They may actually have scientific methods and reasoning to how they arrived at the forecast, but I suppose since weather is big business they may choose to keep them secret?? If there is no method behind the forecast then it is just a bunch of words.


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    #1383
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,496 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Saw a picture of snow in limerick on facebook ? could this be true?looked like it was coming down pretty heavy with atleast an inch or two on the ground .


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    #1384
    musical theatre manic
    Registered Users Posts: 4 ✭musical theatre manic


    @bb1234567

    you aswell thats 3 sources who said that to me now
    :D


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    #1385
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    NMM showing more of a chance for wintry precip. later tonight in N. Leinster.. :)

    226805.png


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    #1386
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Spindle wrote: »
    My problem with these type of forecasts is that they don't include anything at all about what methods they used to arrive at this forecast. At least the postman tells you he looks at berries in bushes etc. If you agree with the methods used (I don't), then at least you can take the forecast serious.

    Just for example he mentions the Jet stream heading south and a Scandi high, how did he come to this conclusion, what are the signs/patterns for this?

    I think a lot of these type forecasts are more hopecasts. Where their start point is to come up with a central theme saying something like it will be colder than average, then the rest of the forecast will lay out the conditions for this to come true (jet stream moving south, high pressure over Scandi etc).

    They may actually have scientific methods and reasoning to how they arrived at the forecast, but I suppose since weather is big business they may choose to keep them secret?? If there is no method behind the forecast then it is just a bunch of words.

    If you check the link above that one of the lads posted you will see there reasoning , there all qualified meteorologists I think , I only took a snippet out of there report .


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    #1387
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Casement was reporting slight frost on horizontal surfaces at 18Z. Air temp 2.0 C

    03967 11581 12304 10020 20018 39787 49901 51022 69912 72186 81801 333 10081 81820 92600=


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    #1388
    TURRICAN
    Closed Accounts Posts: 717 ✭✭✭TURRICAN


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Casement was reporting slight frost on horizontal surfaces at 18Z. Air temp 2.0 C

    03967 11581 12304 10020 20018 39787 49901 51022 69912 72186 81801 333 10081 81820 92600=


    607,333


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    #1389
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,371 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We would like to be seeing the synoptics of the next 2-3 days in the heart of winter, but I think there could be some snow on hills especially Sunday into Monday, looks a bit too marginal for snow to stick where most people actually live but the higher parts of the country especially those above 300m could find some sticking snow, more of a melting snow a bit lower down with shifts back and forth to rain, and little chance near sea level. These 10-13 C offshore sea temperatures would require a more robust set-up but don't you wish there would be a low moving southeast across the country in late January or early February?

    Some heavy falls of snow could develop then on highest slopes, the mountains should be nice to see come Tuesday morning in clearer weather.


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    #1390
    jeltz
    Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭jeltz


    I spent years at over 300m.

    Everything can freeze up for months on end. Some years the pucking cold felt like it was never going to end. Valley dwellers haven't a clue.


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    #1391
    p.oconnor
    Registered Users Posts: 548 ✭✭✭p.oconnor


    A bit of a chance of Snow tomorrow down South and in the West? Pic from Sky News

    2eqgug0.jpg


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    #1392
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Aldi are selling a weather station.....can anyone tell me if its good

    http://www.aldi.ie/ie/html/offers/offers_week45Sunday12.htm


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    #1393
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    Aldi are selling a weather station.....can anyone tell me if its good

    http://www.aldi.ie/ie/html/offers/offers_week45Sunday12.htm

    Already a thread on this :)

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056796973


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    #1394
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg


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    #1395
    Smidge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Smidge


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg

    Nice!
    What do you use them for?


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    #1396
    jeltz
    Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭jeltz


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg

    Great fun to drive but I am always wary of those things, they can flip over if they get the chance, with awful consequences.


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    #1397
    Spindle
    Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)

    40925710151302294946718.jpg
    Smidge wrote: »
    Nice!
    What do you use them for?

    Storm chasing???

    MOOREPARK CORK(A) (Up by Fermoy) was showing up on the last met.ie report as being -1 :) The first time I have seen that this year. There is rain showing up on the radar as well around there, anybody know if there is any snow up there??


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    #1398
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Look what our job has back :D ... btw , they werent there last year! :)
    How much they selling them for Ian?
    Haven't seen them on the shelves in Clarehall yet :D


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    #1399
    odyboody
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭odyboody


    Smidge wrote: »
    Nice!
    What do you use them for?

    Snow plough attached to the front is a bit of a hint


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    #1400
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    :)

    They are mainly used for gritting the car-park . They are useless at clearing any decent accumulations of snow as the weight of the snow just stops the quad altogether . ha



    Must be some more snow about this morning... first time i seen pink on radar this season! :D


    [IMG]http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php? @ 6am attachmentid=226954&stc=1&d=1351935272[/IMG]

    at 6 .30 am
    226955.png


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    #1401
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Question.

    I know the weather doesn't exactly repeat itself, but are there any similar signs in the charts/models/other areas etc that were there before the cold snaps of 09/10 and 10/11? The NAO and AO are negative and the big weather influencer, the Sun, has been very quiet recently as well, as I said, all similar conditions to before previous cold snaps.

    Anyone whose been keeping an eye on all these areas notice any other similarities, or even things that are completely different?

    Would be curious on people's thoughts.


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    #1402
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,055 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    this nothing chart is giving me nightmares, do we have months of this s***e ahead of us?

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif


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    #1403
    catch.23
    Closed Accounts Posts: 152 ✭✭catch.23


    Anyone else getting an ad for BMW winter tyres in the bottom corner? Targeted advertising!!!


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    #1404
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    @Redsunset - if you see this !

    What are your thoughts on the start warming for this season or is it too early to look at that ?


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    #1405
    dexter647
    Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    this nothing chart is giving me nightmares, do we have months of this s***e ahead of us?

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

    Utterly depressed looking at the runs this morning:mad:...Nothing even in fi to get one's hopes up.. Please weather gods not another winter like last


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    #1406
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    this nothing chart is giving me nightmares, do we have months of this s***e ahead of us?

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

    That chart is for the 7th if November. What bearing does that chart have on the weather in December, January, February and March?


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    #1407
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    patneve2 wrote: »

    That chart is for the 7th if November. What bearing does that chart have on the weather in December, January, February and March?
    I think elmer is talking about the azores high and Atlantic rainbelts that typified last winter. next week looks bland alright but good for those who don't like the cold


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    #1408
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Wolfe - What if the greenland and azores highs linked up out in the atlantic

    Would that open the door from the east ?


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    #1409
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    dexter647 wrote: »

    Utterly depressed looking at the runs this morning:mad:...Nothing even in fi to get one's hopes up.. Please weather gods not another winter like last

    The reason why cold/snowy winters are exciting in Ireland is because they are rare.

    We really shouldn't be expecting anything more than an average winter, with anything more interesting as a bonus.


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    #1410
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    dexter647 wrote: »
    Utterly depressed looking at the runs this morning:mad:...Nothing even in fi to get one's hopes up.. Please weather gods not another winter like last

    Its not even winter yet, don't panic .


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    #1411
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Its not even winter yet, don't panic .

    I remember that phrase from last year.:(

    Along with Winter is just starting, we are in the middle of Winter still another half to go and there is still a few weeks in Winter left.:(

    Hope it is not another one of those years.


This discussion has been closed.
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