Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Nabber

Not to mention, March is a cold month, I've seen snow in April, remember "insert year" when we had snow in May.

Charts are looking bad for any cold spell. But good or bad they are still FI. They could change. There is a nice cold pool building in Russia and Scandi compared to this time last year.

Wolfe_IRE

Nabber wrote: »

There is a nice cold pool building in Russia and Scandi compared to this time last year.

Europe-Asia snow cover (white) and sea ice (yellow) 2 November 2011 (left) and 2012 (right). Map source: National Ice Center (NIC).

Redsunset

t|nt|n wrote: »

@Redsunset - if you see this !

What are your thoughts on the start warming for this season or is it too early to look at that ?

Strat season watch officially started Nov 1st.
Will do up thread after weekend.
At 30mb all is average at the moment but the polar vortex will be gathering steam from here on in.

Need some ozone to keep it at bay. Anyway there is a lot of easterly winds throughout the atmosphere helping height rises to form. Where they form is the question.

QBO helping things I feel. Really in full swing of negative winds over equator although starting to wain now.
I'm very busy lately and will get to it next week. Cheers

Wolfe_IRE

From the Irish Examiner



Local authorities said yesterday they have already stockpiled thousands of tonnes of rock salt in preparation for a "hard winter".


Cork County Council has an estimated 4,000 tonnes stored at a number of salt barns.

The country’s largest local authority is also planning to create regional storage centres in Skibbereen, Ballincollig, and Little Island.

And, Clare County Council said yesterday it has stockpiled over 3,000 tonnes of rock salt.

The salt has been acquired from the National Roads Authority and the Department of Transport and will be available to treat main roads during the coming winter.

Following a much milder winter in 2011/2012, more than half the stock had been left.

However, in 2010/2011, many local authorities across the country were left with minimal salt stocks and had to use grit or a mixture of both when the country was hit by a harsher than expected cold snap.

In Clare, council staff have already been out treating the roads network with the first road treatment operation of the winter taking place on Wednesday night.

Surface temperatures dropped low enough for a number of trucks to be dispatched from the local authority’s depot at Beechpark near Ennis.

Clare council engineer Tom Tiernan said: "Presently, more than 3,000 tonnes of salt has been stored at Beechpark after storage capacity at the facility was upgraded from 1,200 to 3,000 tonnes earlier this year."

However, Mr Tiernan said: "We have received no indication from Met Éireann that the country is going to experience a prolonged period of cold weather in the near future.

"However, since Met Éireann does not provide long range forecasts and there is a low confidence factor associated with such forecasts, it is extremely difficult to tell if a sustained period of severe weather is likely to occur later in the year or in early 2013.

"Either way, the council is well prepared."

Smidge

odyboody wrote: »

Snow plough attached to the front is a bit of a hint

Soooorrrrryyyy, I was only asking(and the plough is not that visible)

pauldry

Still see a mild Winter myself but not like last year.

I think it will be mild and dry a lot of the time but there will be brief cold incursions from the North and Northwest just to keep us interested and this may produce the odd snowy episode in these areas particularly on mountains.

Cold like 2010/11 is very rare so these short cold snaps are realistically the best we can hope for. Also a lot of our cold in most Winters happens from January onwards so we are nowhere near there yet.

Last Winter I was completely wrong with my prediction, as I was the year before but my monthly forecasts are a little better so I predict a mild second half to November with plenty of dry weather too after the cold first week.

maw368

Not that this is a scientifically supported prediction, but there is no widely agreed forecasting technique anyway. I can't see how we can expect a warm or mild winter when the UK has had colder than average temps this year for most months, with higher than average rain levels and many areas experiencing snow so early in the year and I don't mean snow at high elevations either.

Places in Scotland, Ireland and Northern England have had snow on the ground at low level already this year, I suppose you may expect these northern regions to get it first but there has been a couple cm accumulations at low levels in the south of the UK already too. A number of south wales towns had snow on the ground in the last week and this morning a number of towns in the Somerset Region have had a good few cm of snow too.

And it's not even winter yet, with the lesser hours in day light and increase in night will naturally make things colder than they already are, and it is pretty much colder than average as it is, Country wide. I know you can argue that a cold spell means nothing in the whole scale of things but we haven't been experiencing a short spell of cold, we have been experiencing months of colder and wetter than average and so far there seems nothing to suggest any warmth.

Ms Cool

Nabber wrote: »

Not to mention, March is a cold month, I've seen snow in April, remember "insert year" when we had snow in May.

Charts are looking bad for any cold spell. But good or bad they are still FI. They could change. There is a nice cold pool building in Russia and Scandi compared to this time last year.

I doubt you can read those charts properly. You are not a professional so don't get too upset

maw368

Bath Somerset had snow this morning...

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B3b4srE9hp5ELTdCdE1oM0U5YXc

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B3b4srE9hp5EZFp1TUxBcGplXzQ

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B3b4srE9hp5EQWJrU0oycm1WUGc

Cantona's Collars

Heard the statement of the week yesterday,a woman I know was buying Ski Jackets & declared "It's going to snow on the 14th December",wonder if she was listening to yer man in Donegal??

Wicklow Weather

Any reports of snowfall overnight in Ireland on hills. UK got 3 inches or so at low land areas across the SW.

ZX7R

Looking at the last run of charts next weekend looks if it cold one,after that things look to be average or just below temperature Wise till the end of the month,looking Like blocking will return in early December with a return to colder temperatures once again
I stand to be corected on this

Caff Caff

maw368 wrote: »

Bath Somerset had snow this morning...

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B3b4srE9hp5ELTdCdE1oM0U5YXc

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B3b4srE9hp5EZFp1TUxBcGplXzQ

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B3b4srE9hp5EQWJrU0oycm1WUGc

Thanks for the pics. looks fantastic...as a snow lover! It seems Bath were caught unawares as snow was not forecast. I wonder was there anything on the charts to suggest this event. Forecasters were left red faced yet again.:)

Caff Caff

zerks wrote: »

Heard the statement of the week yesterday,a woman I know was buying Ski Jackets & declared "It's going to snow on the 14th December",wonder if she was listening to yer man in Donegal??

I was down in the local Lidl buying logs and kindle for the fire and two women were holding up the queue talking about the weather. One of them was saying she heard it will be a colder than average winter, just not as cold as 2010. Haha... I bet she's here! Everyone is suggeating a cold winter. It is extremely changeable at the moment where anything up to 3-4 day forecasts are off. I best practice my snow dance...

jeltz

pauldry wrote: »

Still see a mild Winter myself but not like last year.

I think it will be mild and dry a lot of the time but there will be brief cold incursions from the North and Northwest just to keep us interested and this may produce the odd snowy episode in these areas particularly on mountains.

Isn't that what has already happened the last week or so

Deep Easterly

Interesting is that the mean temperature for the first 3 days of November at all stations on the met.ie page are running, on average, around 1.0c below the January average!

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp

Coolest stations so far this month with comparison to Jan monthly mean:

Mullingar: 3.5 / 4.5
Mt. Dillon: 3.6 / 4.8
Ballyhaise: 3.8 / 5.1

Wicklow Weather

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012110400/ECM1-216.GIF?04-12 interesting set up on the ECM?

Conrach

No matter what you think of him, Joe Bastardi forecast the snow in England when the UKMO didn't.

He said, early last week, that some parts of the UK would have snow at low levels before the 5th Nov.

Iancar29

Hail River anyone?

Sponge Bob

He forecast months of continual snow and cold..not a small bit of a day or two. Sure if it warms up at all before Feb then bastardi is wrong for the winter...again may I add.

Calibos

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hail River anyone?

Thats not a Hail River...

This...Is a Hail River

So you're the guy the thread was about..."Neighbour keeps letting his Husky Piss in my Garden, What should I do??"

jeltz

Calibos wrote: »

Thats not a Hail River...

This...Is a Hail River

Lucky we don't have that here, the cost to get the dents out of the car would be unbearable.

Nabber

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hail River anyone?

Nice to see your dog give your neighbours garden a golden shower :pac::pac:

Was that today at 4:30?

If so I was in Clondalkin and it's was an intense rain shower but no hail.

rickdangerouss

Sponge Bob wrote: »

He forecast months of continual snow and cold..not a small bit of a day or two. Sure if it warms up at all before Feb then bastardi is wrong for the winter...again may I add.

Spin 103 today, said that Ireland was getting 2 months of snow and this was trending on twitter. After a few clicks I found this site link.

http://www.stephenoconnor.info/about/latest-news/big-freeze-2012.html#.UJam-sUxqt0

No need to click on it, The site does Insurance and it quotes BWS senior meteorologist Jim Dale.

Its all about something other than weather when i read 2 months of snow in Ireland.

Looked at Matt's blog and trending towards an mild, wet and winding spell for the second half of Nov.

He does say this has an building affect for early winter. MT could be spot on!!

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/

glossy

babalobioddy wrote: »

Hi, just wondering has MT posted his winter forecast, or did I miss the boat on that one ?

just thinking the same

Su Campu

Sure is a lot of snow cover.

diceyd

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hail River anyone?

is that cappagh ian?

Daniel2590

Su Campu wrote: »

Sure is a lot of snow cover.

Do the grayer parts just indicate areas with less snow?

jeltz

Su Campu wrote: »

Sure is a lot of snow cover.

I don't think it will be very difficult to guesstimate what the outcome of the Snow Advance Index SAI is going to be.

IIRC confidence level is allegedly around 85% due to hindcasting confirmation.

But then hindcasting and best fit are another thing altogether. Not to mention confirmation bias.

Still, I like the idea a lot, the connection has been long mooted, the hypothesis has a nice ring to it. . . :pac:

Wolfe_IRE

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Do the grayer parts just indicate areas with less snow?

No. the purple is sea ice i think