Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

gaius c

It's about that time of year when I return to the weather forum in order to have my hopes of snow validated by others of like mind!

Sephiroth_dude

ZX7R wrote: »

Its amazing that parts of Poland were having temperatures up to 20 degrees 4 days ago and snow today,my wifes in laws reckon they are to get up to 15 Cm today

That is crazy :eek:

jeltz

Musicman2000 wrote: »

And here is the document from the UK Met

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/r/m/A3-plots-temps-NDJ.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/6/A3-plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

The UK Met are still a pack of chancers. :mad:

That was issued before the sudden rapid advance of snow in the Northern Hemisphere. The Snow Advance Index SAI correlates that with -AO conditions predominating. Though before the SAI was hypothesized a link was always mooted.

jeltz

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

I'm afraid I have some issues with your forecast and claims of being an expert and professional.

. . .

And so on, and so on.

At the very least, it's extremely poor form and far from being up to the level of responsibility and respect of a professional forecaster.

Hang your head in shame sir.

Yes, it is an excellent bad example, to go along with the aptly named Madden who this year has used typical descriptions of averaged historical weather for each month instead of a proper forecast in response to the psychic violence inflicted upon him by actual reality, and Vogan who has thrown all pretense of scientific rationality to the four winds, preferring rambling meandering Vogon poetry instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrIrcV9Bgmc

bb1234567

I cant help but get a teeny weeny itty bit excited for this winter:) but Im not buying into it just yet, I would'nt be able to deal with the same disappointment as last year:pac:

Wolfe_IRE

no dramatic cooling expected during the next 10 days in the latest GFS output. Temps likely to be slightly below average overall

tylercollins

another article by The Express: goo.gl/gx4wO

A FREEZING winter is on the cards with experts forecasting a repeat of conditions that led to temperatures of -22C (-8F) in 2010.
The Met Office’s long-term forecast suggests that, like two years ago, high-pressure systems will cut off mild Atlantic air, sending temperatures plunging as Arctic air moves in.

More snow could fall than last winter, which was much drier than average in England, leading to weeks of transport chaos, it adds.

British Weather Services also warns of “significant” snow, temperatures of -18C and transport disruption.

The Met Office said its winter forecast is more accurate than ever thanks to a new computer programme.

Government meteorologists have briefed ministers and transport leaders to be ready for colder-than-average temperatures until the end of January.

Councils have put thousands of extra staff on standby for snow clearing duties and a record three million tons of salt has been stockpiled.

ì
British Weather Services also warns of “significant” snow
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A spokesman for the Department for Transport said the sector is “prepared”.

Temperatures fell as low as -7.5C in the UK over the weekend, making some parts of the UK colder than the Arctic.

It was 6C in Akureyri, Iceland, near the Arctic Circle, while windchill from 62mph gales in north-east Scotland made temperatures feel far below zero.

Some snow even settled in London – only the second time that this has happened in October since 1934.

MeteoGroup forecasters, meanwhile, warned of a “miserable” half-term week, with soggy, chilly weather today and tomorrow then rain “piling in across the country” from Wednesday until the weekend, when temperatures will rise.

Wolfe_IRE

From a winter weather perspective, there is very little of interest to report in the 18z run of the GFS up to the 6-7 Nov or so. Thereafter, some interesting developments are taking place to our sw, w and nw in the form of ridging pressure. What's notable is that the Jetstream influenced weather of the coming 7-10 days gets blocked off by high pressure in the atlantic hooking up with a ridge of high pressure over greenland. Interestingly, this setup remains in place to the end of the run (from 8/9 Nov to 14/15).

In the Continent, HP attemps to build Westward. However, the GFS is not showing much progress there.

The AO is due to withdraw to near neutral or low positive territory in the coming days. This should allow for a reload of colder air that could coincide with a reload of cold air during the middle of November. It's all coulds, shoulds, mights and mays at the moment but I thought the ridging outliers were worth noting.

The below charts show the differences between the 12z and 18z runs in relation to surface pressure and the jetstream position. The first chart in each set is the latest run.

dexter647

Interesting developments indeed so fingers crossed.. Pity its so far out put but its the trends we are looking for:)

MrDerp

Dublin, next 48 hours:


Broadly speaking, there's your winter right there

Wolfe_IRE

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

. It's all coulds, shoulds, mights and mays at the moment but I thought the ridging outliers were worth noting.

Still showing up with a cold, snowy northerly blast at the end of the run. Let's see if this trend continues.

Hmmmm...

Iancar29

Ah well HELLO there Mr Block... welcome back... settle down there now and get comfy for awhile

ZX7R

Iancar or wolf ire or anyone with more knolage than I ,i was looking at all the different charts and just wondering how accurate the gfs ensembles is [control model] is compared to ecwm, jam, gsf Europe etc it is showing some very cold looking uppers at the end of November

Gonzo

no idea how this winter will turn out but already I can feel the chill alot more than I did most of last winter and it's not even November yet!

Wolfe_IRE

ZX7R wrote: »

Iancar or wolf ire or anyone with more knolage than I ,i was looking at all the different charts and just wondering how accurate the gfs ensembles is [control model] is compared to ecwm, jam, gsf Europe etc it is showing some very cold looking uppers at the end of November

ECM is showing heights building to our west and over Greenland too from around the 5-6 Nov too, ZX7R.

Certainly, one to watch

Iancar29

ZX7R wrote: »

Iancar or wolf ire or anyone with more knolage than I ,i was looking at all the different charts and just wondering how accurate the gfs ensembles is [control model] is compared to ecwm, jam, gsf Europe etc it is showing some very cold looking uppers at the end of November

It is known that the GFS overdoes scenarios alot compared to the ECM .
So basically a broad look at them all is usually needed to try mix them together. Especially at day 4 +

Heres a varification chart for 500-hPa heights . Scale going from 0-1 , with one being 100% correct.

EC is the ECM , so yeah...pretty much somes it up.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/aczhist.html

Personally though i dislike the lack of graphics and runs by the ECM and find it easier to work around the GFS , so i have to always add in some salt when looking at the decent charts .

Lucreto

Fresh from Russia

derekon

Lucreto wrote: »

Fresh from Russia

Thanks Lucreto - these charts might be suggesting blocking given temps below normal over the British Isles along with lower than average rainfall (which would suggest less of an Atlantic influence and a higher chance of blocking?)

That is my read on this in any case.

D

Wolfe_IRE

UKMO Update for mid-late Nov

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 28 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that, on the whole, the weather may become less unsettled than it has been. There is a signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year across much of the UK. Later in the month, there are indications that northern and western parts of the UK may see somewhat drier conditions than normal for this time of year. Overnight frosts are likely to become more widespread with time.

leahyl

Met.ie outlook:

October has been quite a cool month with mean temperatures one to two degrees below average. The first week in November will be very cold with a Polar air mass over Ireland producing mean temperatures 3 to 5 degrees below average. Daytime values less than 10 degrees and as low as 5 degrees in places and both air and ground frosts at night. As is normal for a Polar air mass there will be periods of dazzling sunshine and excellent visibility but it will turn very showery at times also with some heavy downpours likely and also some hail and sleet mixed in with a risk of some thunderstorm activity also. Very wet overall in the southwest, west and northwest with rainfall well in excess of average with typically about 50 to 70mm likely and over 100mm possible over the mountains in the northwest. Over the bulk of the country however there will be good sunny intervals and rainfall amounts below average at between 10 and 30mm for the next week.

There is a possibility of somewhat less cold weather on Tuesday and Wednesday as milder southwesterlies feed up over Ireland bringing temperatures back into the low teens but also bringing bands of rain.

Larbre34

leahyl wrote: »

Met.ie outlook:

October has been quite a cool month with mean temperatures one to two degrees below average. The first week in November will be very cold with a Polar air mass over Ireland producing mean temperatures 3 to 5 degrees below average. Daytime values less than 10 degrees and as low as 5 degrees in places and both air and ground frosts at night. As is normal for a Polar air mass there will be periods of dazzling sunshine and excellent visibility but it will turn very showery at times also with some heavy downpours likely and also some hail and sleet mixed in with a risk of some thunderstorm activity also. Very wet overall in the southwest, west and northwest with rainfall well in excess of average with typically about 50 to 70mm likely and over 100mm possible over the mountains in the northwest. Over the bulk of the country however there will be good sunny intervals and rainfall amounts below average at between 10 and 30mm for the next week.

There is a possibility of somewhat less cold weather on Tuesday and Wednesday as milder southwesterlies feed up over Ireland bringing temperatures back into the low teens but also bringing bands of rain.

Ill buy that for a dollar, except that last bit

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Saturday looks interesting

Elmer Blooker

Larbre34 wrote: »

Ill buy that for a dollar, except that last bit

now that you mention the "last bit" I have noticed the Azores high is making it's annual appearance.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Blizzard 2010

ECM 32 day looks very blocked maybe a repeat of November 2010 is on the cards.:eek:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

ECM 32 day looks very blocked maybe a repeat of November 2010 is on the cards.:eek:

Go on, stick up a few oul charts there !

Blizzard 2010

t|nt|n wrote: »

Go on, stick up a few oul charts there !

I have access only.Copyright issues ect sorry

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I have access only.Copyright issues ect sorry

Gotcha, sorry, missed the bit about it being the 32 day !

dexter647

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I have access only.Copyright issues ect sorry

How can one get access?:)

Spindle

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

now that you mention the "last bit" I have noticed the Azores high is making it's annual appearance.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

About 6 Months too late for Summer

hotwhiskey

dexter647 wrote: »

How can one get access?:)