High risk stocks (Petroceltic)

yobr · 19-12-2011 9:21am

Ratification through.....lets see a good rise today..fingers crossed

turbobaby · 19-12-2011 10:42am

Slow and steady wins the race!

Grecco · 19-12-2011 2:45pm

AT9 Super flow rates
and now money in the Bank for Kurdistan
Roll on Jan 2012 for the results of the appraisel and we get the Gas reserves fully booked, I`m now hoping for 12 Tcf of gas in place
(And the SP to hit the mid teens Q1 2012

)

turbobaby · 19-12-2011 2:51pm

turbobaby wrote: »

In the near future we will more than likely have the following:

1. Further test results from AT7 and AT9 proving up resources with tasty flow rates.
2. Ratification of Enel farm-out by Algerian government
3. Completion of the development plan in Jan 2012.

4. A further farm out to a major player as suggested by BOC today.
5. Passage of the Kurdi legislation in Iraq.
6. Meanwhile, macro conditions continue to worsen with European banks being nationalised (and possibly Bank of America) after a Greek default.
7. Oil and gas prices continue to drop until...
8. War breaks out in the MENA region, QE3 and some Euro printing is announced giving a major boost to markets and commodity prices, but failing to address the deep rooted issues of the global economy.
9. The derivitive bomb explodes!

I posted this on October 10th. Not too bad if I say so myself!

Grecco · 19-12-2011 3:10pm

turbobaby wrote: »

I posted this on October 10th. Not too bad if I say so myself!

Very sharp turbo

The eu is still fudging along with meetings and half solutions but I don't think we`ll hear of Greece officially defaulting, they are too small for that to happen instead there Debt is being picked up by the rest.

On another topic do you think that we could be in for some type of Oil shock in 2012?? As in if demand continues to rise can production keep up especially if the developing nations start to rally

turbobaby · 20-12-2011 2:12pm

Well the big question in relation to oil right now is Iran and the constant rumour that the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked by the Iranians.

I note Obama finally pulled his troops out of Iraq, which would indicate there is not going to be a ground invasion of Iran, but there are many in the US war mongering so it is hard to say.

Peter Schiff, who I have great respect for, believes oil prices will rise during 2012. He believes supply constraints will be greater than any decrease in demand brought on by recession.

Im happy to have exposure to oil, gas, gold, silver and uranium during 2012.

Lord TSC · 24-12-2011 3:48pm

Thrilled to see this back up to 10c. I bought in at 11c and it seemed to drop way down straight afterwards

rs500ff · 03-02-2012 6:16pm

And another price drop for PCI.

Like any fruitless punt the regrets never leave you.
This really has been an incredibly poor share considering its activities and its potential/perceived upside.

With allegations of corruption over on iii I can only say that when it hits break even for me, I am gone.

For those of you that stay with it, well, you’re nuts.

zagamuffin · 03-02-2012 6:29pm

rs500ff wrote: »

And another price drop for PCI.

Like any fruitless punt the regrets never leave you.
This really has been an incredibly poor share considering its activities and its potential/perceived upside.

With allegations of corruption over on iii I can only say that when it hits break even for me, I am gone.

For those of you that stay with it, well, you’re nuts.

Recon this is a rocket primed , all the numbers say it will fly but they have just not lite the fuse yet, in here and usop and both are life changing punts if they play but not to much loss if they tank .

Have been in petro a long time and persistence in the dips and rises may hopefully pay off one day

Your siggy suggests a motorsport link, ???

turbobaby · 03-02-2012 8:38pm

zagamuffin wrote: »

Recon this is a rocket primed , all the numbers say it will fly but they have just not lite the fuse yet, in here and usop and both are life changing punts if they play but not to much loss if they tank .

Have been in petro a long time and persistence in the dips and rises may hopefully pay off one day

Your siggy suggests a motorsport link, ???

Agreed. Simple Maths dictates that this is seriously undervalued. Don't mind people on iii suggesting foul play. Punters on message boards think the world is against them.

There are a whole pile of AIM oil explorers undervalued right now. I think PCI and CHAR are two of the best but have all my eggs in the PCI basket as the 2nd half of this year will be a very exciting time for this little company with big assets, and in a month's time a cash laden balance sheet.

I couldn't contemplate selling now after holding for 10 months of a rollercoaster ride.

Also, it was interesting to read rumours about Russia's gas supplies being in v heavy demand and under pressure to supply adequate amounts.

Cash plus remaining Algerian stake alone values the company at 16p. We'll get there. The markets get it wrong all the time.

rs500ff · 04-02-2012 11:52pm

Well I'll see what happens i suppose. Unsure what to do at this stage however the below interview is encouraging.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHU3I2SWvtA

I'm holding just over 200k shares at 9p which is not insignificant however its been tied up in this company for way too long.

Undecided.

zagamuffin · 05-02-2012 12:37am

rs500ff wrote: »

Well I'll see what happens i suppose. Unsure what to do at this stage however the below interview is encouraging.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHU3I2SWvtA

I'm holding just over 200k shares at 9p which is not insignificant however its been tied up in this company for way too long.

Undecided.

Very very similar position ..lol

But what about the siggy, you a ford man

yobr · 05-02-2012 11:20am

zagamuffin wrote: »

Very very similar position ..lol

But what about the siggy, you a ford man

Same here....think I'll hang around for 1st quarter then see, maybe come back when seismic results are due....they don't help them selves by always missing deadlines...BoC said before xmas, enel sign off was 4 weeks away, it wasn't, while we now have Enel finalisation its later to get the cash...also should have been RNS about discovery report being submitted to Algerian authorities..when you keep missing your own deadlines it is worrying...

Grecco · 05-02-2012 12:26pm

I think the size of the Gas find made it a lot harder for a small market cap company like PCI to handle. In hindsight they probably should have flogged the find straight away but instead they opted for a full appraisal which was a big ask for them.
Anyway the way I see it is its done now so we will just have to wait and see what type of bookable reserves are in place first of all.
As for the cash from Enel, the $100m is already committed to Kurdistan and repaying of the last loan.
Its a big Gas field, there's enough Gas in it to guarantee supply to Southern Europe for years, with the Russian Gas supply getting tight due to demand from china its a big asset for PCI.
Personally I`m sitting on a huge paper profit as my average is just over 4p but I can still see big upside to this share in the next 12 months. I`m not selling, I`ll be topping up every time the SP goes below 8p but I dont think I`ll get a chance so may have to buy at market prices.
The closer we get to Kurdistan/another Farmout/Rovasenda there will be sharp rises in the SP
Little is been said of Rovasenda but they are targeting 200+ million Barrels of Oil and if this comes in then the SP is going to roast long before Kurdistan
Patience is key now, jumping from share to share is only going to cost you money.

rs500ff · 05-02-2012 12:57pm

Thanks for the reassuring posts guys.

I don't jump from the share to share but, as it many other PCI holders, I am extremely frustrated. I hold this stock since mid 2010. I have never had a gain on this share. I have averaged down 3 times and at this stage feel like i am just chasing my tail.

Yes, these are risky shares & No, I am not professional investor, but I have tried to learn from my mistakes over the last few years and generally I have done ok. However this share has been disaster.

I would have thought by now it would be sitting comfortably around the 40p mark and steadily moving to 50p. How utterly wrong I have been.

I'm afraid I have nothing technical or informative to add other than my rant.
Also I genuinely appreciate some of the constructive posts on this thread.

For those more experienced than me what would you objectively expect from this share in 12 months time? (I know its a futile Q but just wondering what long term holders are thinking at this stage).

@zagamuffin: I've owned many fast Fords amongst other marques. PCI could reduce me to the bus pass status though!

turbobaby · 05-02-2012 2:34pm

Brian O'Cathain wrote:

O’Cathain told us that early talks have already taken place. “We have some new venture activity which is dependent on the closing of the ENEL deal, once that closes we’ll hopefully be announcing these deals,” he said.
“We looking at both new territories as well as existing ones. At the moment it’s hard to say. Nothing is ever done, until it’s done. We haven’t concluded any deals yet.
“Some of the things we are looking at, obviously we’re not currently in a position to make any capital commitments on just yet, until we’ve closed the ENEL deal. But when that’s done we’ll have the firepower to take on new deals, so we hope to add to the portfolio in the not too distant future.

Expect some news on these in the next month. But remember the share price actually dropped when they announced the Kurdistan deal. Bizarre!

Grecco wrote: »

As for the cash from Enel, the $100m is already committed to Kurdistan and repaying of the last loan.

At 30 June 2011, PCI had $90m. They've obviously burned through some of that with current expenses over the last 6 months. Added to that the Kurdistan asset cost $72m. We don't know how much of the bridging loan was drawn down.

So I would suggest that the majority of the Enel cash can be used for asset purchases / farm ins!

There will also be more cash coming in from the farm out in Rovasenda in 2012.

On a moral level I hope they do not get involved in Libya, as what went on there was a disgrace in my opinion, but best not get into that here!

Rigor Mortis · 08-02-2012 6:14pm

For those interested, there is a Proactive Investors event in the Shelbourne at the end of the month. PCI will be one of the companies presenting.

The directors of Red Rock Resources (AIM: RRR), Petroceltic International (AIM: PCI), Kedco (AIM: KED) and WesternZagros Resources (TSX-V: WZR) will be presenting:
Tuesday the 28th February 2012,
The Shelbourne Hotel, 27 St Stephen's Green, Dublin, 2 Ireland (St. Stephens Suite)

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/137

yobr · 09-02-2012 12:04pm

Thanks for notification, I will be heading along to that.. Hope its Tom Hickey presenting.

rs500ff · 14-02-2012 10:57am

Enel payment has been received.

I'm giving this til Q3 and then I hope to be out by break even.
With 2.5billion shares in issue I feel it will be an up hill battle for the sp to dramatically reflect the possibility of positive news over the next 9-12 months.

Bluefox21 · 14-02-2012 12:30pm

I can understand your frustration but with the management in place and the cash at hand, I'm in this for the long run

http://www.davy.ie/LR?id=3049&fb_source=message

rs500ff · 14-02-2012 12:41pm

Bluefox21 wrote: »

I can understand your frustration but with the management in place and the cash at hand, I'm in this for the long run

http://www.davy.ie/LR?id=3049&fb_source=message

Over what period are you holding and more importantly how long are you willing to wait??

I’m in this dog for the last year and a half or so. I have averaged down a number of times and have never held this share as a gain.
I could have further averaged down this week but can’t bring myself to so.

And yes, I know what you’re all thinking. I am emotionally attached to this share!!

Bluefox21 · 21-02-2012 10:40pm

rs500ff wrote: »

Over what period are you holding and more importantly how long are you willing to wait??

I’m in this dog for the last year and a half or so. I have averaged down a number of times and have never held this share as a gain.
I could have further averaged down this week but can’t bring myself to so.

And yes, I know what you’re all thinking. I am emotionally attached to this share!!

Hope you decided to wait! Seems like now that Blackrock are out of the picture the sp is really starting to rally

rs500ff · 22-02-2012 1:29pm

Bluefox21 wrote: »

Hope you decided to wait! Seems like now that Blackrock are out of the picture the sp is really starting to rally

Typically PCI wipes off all of yesterday’s gains. What a teflon, dog of a share!

I’m still holding but once it gets to .095-.10 (if it ever does) I am gone. Far too much money invested in this over the last 16 months with zero return.

For those of you holding at 4p-5p, well done. But there many others, like myself, that could only use the opportunity to average down.

No matter how much cheerleading PCI gets the market simply does not believe in it.

Comordha · 22-02-2012 2:40pm

I think RS is right. I was one of the first on this board to start ramping this share. Have almost lost all faith in it. No matter what they do the market just wants to either manipulate or forget about it. I need to get up to 14-15cent though so my journey is not over yet. The right time to sell was when the first reserve estimates came out and the speculation was rife.

rs500ff · 22-02-2012 3:40pm

There have been too many excuses and speculative comments for one to deduce a cogent explanation of PCI’s performance.
Institutional investors disposing of shares are the latest to be blamed.

I like to take a punt. I like the risks involved. If the share had collapsed to 4-5p and stayed there then I could accept the loss and work around it.
With companies like this I expect either a flop or a flare and I think that is why I am so frustrated with PCI.
I have almost 25k invested in PCI btw.

Anyway I will post when I get out and decide what to do then.

yobr · 23-02-2012 9:59am

Same as you guys on PCI. Going to see Tom Hickey's presentation next week so will see what that brings. Its been very frustrating.. I think as a company they don't communicate very well with the market and last year allowed themselves to be in a position, to use Brian O'Cathain's words, where "every drill result was a referendum on the company".

I might sell out in March and go into FOGL if Bor hit a duster..

turbobaby · 23-02-2012 5:16pm

I'm not selling at least until the drilling results in Italy are in. Even then, I might not sell as Kurdistan will only be around the corner.

I have been frustrated in the past too. But look at the 6 month chart if you still think it's not performing well enough for you. What price you paid is largely irrelevant. What matters is the current price and trying to predict the future price. For me, it will certainly be going higher.

rs500ff · 23-02-2012 6:03pm

That’s where I fell down with PCI before TB. Back about a year ago I thought 12-14c was a very good price.

What sort of time frame is the Italian drill and then Kurdistan?
Pie in the sky stuff I know but what would be your expectations in 6-12month scale.

Unfortunately most of my cash is with PCI so I think I may well leave it for a further another 6 months but I am losing interest.
TBH I don’t know what way to go.

yobr · 23-02-2012 7:46pm

rs500ff wrote: »

What sort of time frame is the Italian drill and then Kurdistan? Pie in the sky stuff I know but what would be your expectations in 6-12month scale.

TBH I don’t know what way to go.

Why not come along to the Shelbourne next Tuesday where PCI are presenting so? Tom Hickey is presenting and you can catch a word with him at the reception afterwards. I am heading along..register on Proactive Investors website..

Anyone else want questions answered...pm me...

rs500ff · 24-02-2012 10:47am

Thanks for the offer yobr.
I’m sure others with more experience could ask more challenging questions than me but if you could just slip him a note to say rs500ff wants his money back!

yobr · 24-02-2012 11:58am

rs500ff wrote: »

Thanks for the offer yobr.
I’m sure others with more experience could ask more challenging questions than me but if you could just slip him a note to say rs500ff wants his money back!

Will do, am sure he will have some of that Enel cash in his bag, minus my fee, of course

Comordha · 24-02-2012 11:59am

Tom Hickey is a great man and I was glad to see him come on board. He has an impressive track record too. Unfortunately this has not changed anything and the market still seems to want to depress this share. As I said before, the best point to sell would have been when all the hype of the Gas discovery first came out. It is kind of sad in a way to see how the market really values a share. Buy the rumour, sell the fact could not be further from the truth with this share. Kurdistan might be another game changer for Petroceltic but whats to say the Market Makers won't depress the share again. What this share really needs is for an extraordinary special dividend to be released to shareholders. Sell the rest of the Algeria stake and give holders a nice divi, I'd like to see how the market reacts then. Then use the rest of the cash to proceed with other prospects.

turbobaby · 24-02-2012 1:56pm

The reality is that shareholders of every AIM oil stock could come on here and tell you how undervalued their stock is.

It's a fact that cash is sitting on the sidelines, as there is very little appetite for risk right now. "The Market" is not surpressing the price of the share, general macro economic uncertainties are. PCI is not alone.

It seems most on here agree that PCI has a great portfolio of assets and that the share price doesn't reflect these assets. I find it fascinating that people would then want to sell under these circumstances. Of course we have traders out there who are gifted enough to buy and sell at the right time, but nobody who writes on these boards is talented enough to do this.

Tell us where you would put the proceeds of your sale and get better value?

One thing that is 100% true in markets is that the true value will always be found. Buyers and sellers overbuy and oversell. PCI is oversold. Just wait for true market value to be realised and then you can take some off the table.

Have a bit of patience. You can't invest in AIM shares and expect a nice steady rise.

As for the proposal to issue a special dividend.... PCI is a growth company. Investors have invested because they want growth, not a dividend. PCI needs to spend their cash on a new project at a price below true value, and I am confident the management team will find a bargain to make us all happy.

colinm5040 · 25-02-2012 11:05pm

Anyone going on Tuesday evening?

yobr · 26-02-2012 10:07am

colinm5040 wrote: »

Anyone going on Tuesday evening?

Yes.

Grecco · 26-02-2012 1:15pm

yobr wrote: »

Yes.

yobr
If you would, could you ask about any new ventures they are looking into.
Are they looking to farm in with another operator on an existing licence or will they go it alone.
Also what about Libya, are they looking there???

Cheers yobr

Bluefox21 · 27-02-2012 12:39pm

I'm also going tomorrow and I'm happy to ask any questions if people are interested. Definitely want to quiz them on Kurdistan! early progress again in the SP today which isn't bad for a Monday morning. Funny how getting in at different times really changes your perspective on the stock. I'm average up 20% now but don't plan on leaving anytime soon!

rs500ff · 27-02-2012 1:04pm

I won’t be attending myself unfortunately but would appreciate if you those of you attending could keep us updated.
Thanks

Back to break even for me this morning

Seb Dangerfield · 27-02-2012 1:53pm

Heading in tomorrow also, to hear the presentation.
I just bought into this share ten days ago at 8.4p, and feel there is tremendous upside to this company:
I bought in based on the two highly prospective licences in Kurdistan which are just down the road from GKP's massive Shaikan discovery. Looks like they will carry out two major drills here in early 2013 after seismics are done.
If GKP is bought out, PCI should gain from this.
The downside is the political risk of this region but hopefully this has been reduced, seeing as some of the majors are now willing to jump in.

Algeria looks like a fantastic prospect, with good flow rates.
Ain Tsila estimated to contain 10 trillion cu.ft. gas which is approx. 175 million barrels oil equivalent!

Also, good management team and cash on balance sheet.

With a market cap of £187m, the above info alone, without looking at the Ireland and Italy prospects, made this a buy and hold for me.
Hopefully this will be a good year for PCI holders:)

(Most of my portfolio is now invested in oil & gas stocks as I think they are being re-rated with risk on again)

turbobaby · 27-02-2012 2:06pm

Welcome aboard Seb. You are on to a winner here, no doubt about it.

I am unable to attend tomorrow but I wish all of you the best. Take notes!

200yrolecrank · 27-02-2012 2:22pm

Hi folks,
If its not too much trouble could anyone attending the meeting press them for a bit more info on our Italian venture,basically will there be an Italian rollover on the ban.
I have a decent chunk in here,been tested over the past 2 years but stuck with it as I believe it will go north of 1 pound before the end of 2013 in my humble opinion.
I would be interested to hear others opinion of a target sp you believe this share can achieve given the play we have now and with a bit of disposable income to further acquire new ventures.

Lord TSC · 27-02-2012 6:37pm

I believe it will go north of 1 pound before the end of 2013 in my humble opinion.

Man, that would be so awesome. I know most people play with bigger funds, but it would be amazing if I could turn my €400 into €4000 :P As an unemployed person, that would be so, so brilliant.

200yrolecrank · 27-02-2012 6:40pm

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

I believe it will go north of 1 pound before the end of 2013 in my humble opinion.

Man, that would be so awesome. I know most people play with bigger funds, but it would be amazing if I could turn my €400 into €4000 :P As an unemployed person, that would be so, so brilliant.

I hope you can achieve this but choose your broker carefully as the taxes and fees could make a serious dent into that 400.

rs500ff · 27-02-2012 7:37pm

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Man, that would be so awesome. I know most people play with bigger funds, but it would be amazing if I could turn my €400 into €4000 :P As an unemployed person, that would be so, so brilliant.

Its not as clear cut as that man. Check out some of the sticky threads and spend some time researching.
As stated above taxes and charges always get you. Problem is the risk only begins to make sense when you've got a lot to loose.

Anyway, a good day it seems for PCI today but be prepared for plenty of sell offs along the way. This share has a history of bucking the trend when you least expect it.

yobr · 29-02-2012 10:58am

Went along last night, not any real new information, will post something more later on...

Bluefox21 · 29-02-2012 12:53pm

Interesting enough talk. There were two companies called RedRock Resources and Western Zargos that I haven't really looked into before but could have a bit of value to them. The others were PCI and Kedco.

Petroceltic was really interesting. My impression is that it won't be one of those shares that increases dramatically over the next few months. I get the feeling that this is a longer term project. Tom made the point about looking for a partner in Italy so as not to hold too much risk in any single project. They are fully funded which is great (but not anything new on what we had before) but they will require a huge amount of finance to take advantage of Algeria which again will be done through a partner. Their share in Algeria is worth more than the current market cap and 30% of whatever they produce will be liquid which sells at the same price as a barrel of oil

Focus seems to be on building an established company and with that in mind I think I'm going to lock away my shares and come back in 12 months!

As regards to Kurdistan it seems like (and this is taken from the Western Zargos presentation) that it is potentially a game changer with numerous proven fields in the area. The only concern would be that the fields seem to be in an area that are harder to drill than some of the more southern fields. Saying that, I imagine the area itself is politically more stable than those areas. They seemed quite encouraged by the fact Exxon have moved into the area.

All in all quite encouraging. They are meeting with Goldmans sales team at the end of March so we may see a bit of action around then. I'm sure others will have more to contribute. I'd say don't get involved if you're looking for immediate gains but over the long term this is a safe investment with numerous positive projects in the pipeline.

If you are looking at short term gains have a look at Western Zargos listed on the TSX Venture. Their speaker reckons that with the oil they have and are about to announce the share could increase five fold in the next six months. Big danger here is that they are entirely focused on Kurdistan so anything in the region goes wrong and they are bust!

I'm going to avoid Kedco but only because I'm already involved in too many AIM shares at the moment

RedRock resources focus on Iron, Gold and Uranium and seem to have a number of projects in the pipeline so anyone interested in them let me know and I'll type out what I took down.

GLA

rs500ff · 29-02-2012 1:17pm

Thanks for posting that bluefox.

I'm going to digest that while out on lunch and then probably decide to leave my shares sit for another 6-12months like yourself!

Not sure if I like the emergence of GS involvement though.

turbobaby · 29-02-2012 1:20pm

Great write up Bluefox, much appreciated. Will certainly take a look at the other firms you mentioned...

yobr · 01-03-2012 6:50pm

A few of my brief notes from Tuesday’s presentation,

1. Algeria.

The FDR has been submitted to Sonatrach and PCI await their approval. This is the last step in the process of the field being declared a commercial. Tom Hickey (TH) mentioned a figure of 10TCF (he didn’t indicate whether it was GIIP or recoverable figure). He also indicated that the Ain Tsila was of great interest to Sonatrach as the field comprised 5-6% of all GIIP in Algeria.

Interestingly, since TH came to PCI, it appears to me that he is careful to always describe the field in terms of its full 30 years lifespan and what it might eventually produce over this lifetime rather than just a figure of the amount of gas that might be initially recoverable. In this regard, he spoke about the possibilities for shale gas in the field which have yet to be explored and are not covered under the existing PCI licence. This change could also be down to Geoff Probert.

In terms of the development of the field, TH indicated it has been done before and he spoke about what BHP did at Ohanet (se page 7 of presentation). Geoff Probert, now with PCI, was responsible for the development of FDR for that field.

The 2nd farm out of Ain Tsila will not happen until 3rd or more likely, the 4th quarter this year. It’s a more complicated process in Algeria as the company have to get Sonatrach’s permission to share data which slows down the process. TH indicated that the number of firms who are interested is in double figures. My own view is that given the long wait for the Enel payment, I think we could be looking at 3rd or 4th quarter 2013 before we get the cash.

Further cash on its way from ENEL once FDR is approved. TH indicated that PCI has enough cash for next two years.

2. Italy.

TH indicated that there has been much talk about the lifting of the off shore drilling ban but, as yet, there is no definitive timescale for this.

Rosavenda. Expected to spud in either November or December and be at TD by Feb/March 2013. PCI will bring in a farm out partner but no timescale was given on this.

3. Kurdistan.

TH ran through the history of the PCI legwork in their attempts to secure blocks in Kurdistan. The contract for the seismic has been awarded and this should commence in March.

4. Other issues.

TH indicated that the company maker for Tullow was having a large number of projects ongoing at once and he gave the impression that PCI should follow this route. PCI are scouting the MENA area for opportunities, although they are not necessarily confined to that area.

TH acknowledged that there is a lot of sector consolidation going on and he mentioned Cove and Bowleven. In response to whether Goldman Sachs were building a stake, he indicated that that PCI might not know this unless they breached a threshold. TH also indicated that PCI were meeting with GS in March.

Any other questions just ask….

colinm5040 · 01-03-2012 7:03pm

thanks for the write up yobr much appreciated. great to see so much chat going on at the moment about pci, interesting times...:D

High risk stocks (Petroceltic)

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