High risk stocks (Petroceltic)

Soulja boy

Very nice growth on friday and today (providing it holds on to it for close).

Got in at 4p, unsure what personal target to aim for with this one, I wasn't expecting it to ramp up so quickly.

yobr

Soulja boy wrote: »

Very nice growth on friday and today (providing it holds on to it for close).

Got in at 4p, unsure what personal target to aim for with this one, I wasn't expecting it to ramp up so quickly.

Long term PCI holder here.

Depends to an extent on when Enel deal is announced and any further uncertainty around Greece, euro banks etc..If I were you I would stay in until Enel and this should see you double your money..remember Algeria is worth 12p alone...

Soulja boy

Cheers man

turbobaby

In the near future we will more than likely have the following:

1. Further test results from AT7 and AT9 proving up resources with tasty flow rates.
2. Ratification of Enel farm-out by Algerian government
3. Completion of the development plan in Jan 2012.

4. A further farm out to a major player as suggested by BOC today.
5. Passage of the Kurdi legislation in Iraq.
6. Meanwhile, macro conditions continue to worsen with European banks being nationalised (and possibly Bank of America) after a Greek default.
7. Oil and gas prices continue to drop until...
8. War breaks out in the MENA region, QE3 and some Euro printing is announced giving a major boost to markets and commodity prices, but failing to address the deep rooted issues of the global economy.
9. The derivitive bomb explodes!

Grecco

turbobaby wrote: »

Talk about timing the market! Wonderful!

True timing is wonderful but heres a few better tips

Always keep some cash in your portfolio so that you have money ready when oportunity strikes
(I learnt this the hard way)
And have Patience, ie when to Buy and how long to wait for a return.
Finally don`t get too gready, don`t be afraid to take some profit
(Another lesson I learnt the hard way)

PCI is worth 4p alone from the cash from Enel so at these prices its really a no brainer so onwards and upwards from here!!!

Ewing

http://www.petroceltic.ie/~/media/Files/P/Petroceltic/presentation/2011/capital-markets-day-271011.pdf?

I really like this company especially when you see what's in the pipeline.
Grabbed myself some shares this morning

Grecco

Best of luck, Ewing!! shares up 15% already today, there must good results in (are you JR or Bobby?? )

Great presentation from it I gather
AT-7 & AT-8 testing finished by week end
AT-9 is nearly at TD so testing to start around the beginning December so we could have results from AT-9 by mid December

Expect an RNS by Early next week

It wouldn't surprise me if we Hit 10p by the year end

great stuff!!

Lord TSC

Seems long ago I bought in at 11 with the hope of seeing it jump higher :P If it gets back up that high, I'm buying and baling as quickly as possible.

Comordha

Good luck Ewing but keep a very close eye on this one - many a hurt soul on this board.

Ewing

Grecco wrote: »

(are you JR or Bobby?? )

Well I could also have been Pam or Sue Ellen

---

Some nice optimism has returned to this Company, and I see this as a multi-bagger. Thanks for the advice Comordha

Grecco

Should easily punch through 6p this week, I also expect that the Enel deal to be ratified soon which may add another 4p to the SP

Looken good

yobr

Grecco wrote: »

Should easily punch through 6p this week, I also expect that the Enel deal to be ratified soon which may add another 4p to the SP

Looken good

Greeco...pci holder here...why you think 4p for Enel deal?

TheInquisitor

Petroceltic chasing "Shaikan-type" play in Kurdistan, says chief executive
Fri 10:50 am by Jamie Ashcroft Petoceltic's new Kurdistan acreage is just a few kilometres from Gulf Keystone's major Shaikan oil discoveryPetoceltic's new Kurdistan acreage is just a few kilometres from Gulf Keystone's major Shaikan oil discovery

Petroceltic (LON:PCI) chief executive Brian O’Cathain said the company was “very fortunate” to grab its highly prospective acreage in Kurdistan.

And he reckons the door has now slammed shut on smaller firms attempting stake their claim in this emerging oil territory.

In late July the junior explorer teamed up with American firm Hess Corp (NYSE:HES) to snap up two licences in the semi-autonomous region of northern Iraq, which was recently described as “the last great oil frontier” by former BP boss Tony Hayward.

“We were delighted to pick up the two blocks,” O’Cathain said in an interview with Proactive Investors.

“They are excellent blocks with five anticlines – three on one and two on the other – any one of which could potentially contain in excess of 1 billion barrels of oil in place.

“It is the same petroleum system and target horizon as in the adjacent Gulf Keystone’s Shaikan block.

“It is the Shaikan type play that we are chasing, particularly in the Triassic which has been proved up by Gulf Keystone, and other Operators in the area.”

“We are only a few kilometres away from Shaikan so we are very optimistic.”

He added: “The Kurdistan assets have the potential to be absolutely huge for Petroceltic, even though our equity in the projects is relatively modest at 20 per cent.

“The fact that we have 20 per cent of what could potentially be 4 or 5 major discoveries is very significant.

“We are very excited about it and we are delighted to have acquired these assets just before the door effectively closed for smaller companies.”

A wave of similar deals followed Petroceltic’s move into Kurdistan, though the investments were being made by larger explorers. Murphy, Marathon, Hess, TAQA, Repsol, and Maersk are now all involved in the area.

And Vallares’ £3 billion merger with Turkish firm Genel give us a hint of things to come as this particular niche in the oil sector consolidates.

“I don’t think there’ll many more small companies getting the chance to enter Kurdistan now,” O’Cathain said.

“I think any future activity will revolve around consolidation, rather than new entrants.”

Petroceltic’s initial work in Kurdistan will involve seismic exploration. Then in early 2013 it plans to follow this by drilling at least two major exploration wells.

While it may seem some way off, O’Cathain and his team are by no means sitting on their hands until then.

On the contrary, Petroceltic has a very busy few months ahead of it in Algeria where it is developing the Ain Tisila gas field – the group’s flagship asset which is quickly approaching ‘world class’ proportions.

O’Cathain said: “Ain Tsila is on track now to become a world class resource. It is a very large discovery and we are delighted to be associated with it,” O’Cathain.

Indeed a farm-out deal with ENEL – Europe’s second largest utility company – was a telling endorsement of the project’s potential.

The deal to sell an18.375 per cent stake in the Isarene licence, which hosts Ain Tsila, for at least US$101.75 million (including back costs) was initially struck in April this year and Petroceltic is now awaiting its first payday under the agreement.

“We are expecting the ENEL deal to close in the next four weeks,” O’Cathain explained.

“At that point we’ll have around US$100 million in receivable (cash) due to us from ENEL, hopefully by the end of this year. We’ll also have another payout from ENEL next year, how much will depend on the size of the resource that’s proved up.

“That figure could be anything from US$30 to US$75 million depending on the level of reserves.”

On the ground Petroceltic continues to make good progress with the appraisal of the Ain Tsila gas discovery, which is currently estimated to contain around 10 trillion cubic feet of gas in place (mid case, in house estimate).

Notably the most recent operations have thrown up some of the best results on the field to date, with the highlight being the AT-8 well.

“AT-8 was a fantastic result, an absolutely stunning well. It gave us a great test result,with 38.6 million cubic feet (of gas) per day flowing from the well. If it had been completed as a development well it could done in excess of 50 million cubic feet a day, which is a great amount to get out of a single well.”

“In terms in energy (or oil) equivalent it did very well, it works out at around 8,000 barrels a day. That is a fantastic rate for an Ordovician gaswell in Algeria.”

Following on from AT-8, work continues on the AT-7 and 9 wells. The later is now pretty much at target depth in the horizontal section, according to O’Cathain.

The well is now being prepared for logging and subsequently testing operation. Meanwhile AT-7 is still being tested. O’Cathain emphasised that the AT-7 and 9 results are expected in the near future.

All this testing will help inform the final discovery report for Ain Tsila, which is on track and is expected to be completed by January. After that O’Cathain expects the partners will also complete a new competent persons report by the end of the first half of 2012.

Petroceltic still has a 56 per cent stake in Isarene, but O’Cathain is not against the idea of selling more project equity when the time is right.

“A further farm-out is something we are giving active consideration to at the moment.

“With the permission of Sonatrach, with have been having some discussions with a number of new possible partners, but there’s nothing formal yet.”

Closing the ENEL farm-out is the most obvious and immediate catalysts for stock as the proceeds will help fund Petroceltic’s current commitments and it will also open up the possibility of further additions to the group’s exciting portfolio.

Indeed O’Cathain told us that early talks have already taken place. “We have some new venture activity which is dependent on the closing of the ENEL deal, once that closes we’ll hopefully be announcing these deals,” he said.

“We looking at both new territories as well as existing ones. At the moment it’s hard to say. Nothing is ever done, until it’s done. We haven’t concluded any deals yet.

“Some of the things we are looking at, obviously we’re not currently in a position to make any capital commitments on just yet, until we’ve closed the ENEL deal. But when that’s done we’ll have the firepower to take on new deals, so we hope to add to the portfolio in the not too distant future.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/34913/petroceltic-chasing-shaikan-type-play-in-kurdistan-says-chief-executive-34913.html

Grecco

yobr wrote: »

Greeco...pci holder here...why you think 4p for Enel deal?

Because the Enel deal increases Pci`s market cap.

On the plus side we've managed to break through 6p even with all this Greek bull****.
Could see 7.5p on the next set of test results if they are up to expectations (which by the amount of buys going through with the last few days suggests good news on the way!)

turbobaby

I smell a tasty RNS in the morning!

Grecco

Yes Turbo you were spot on
http://www.petroceltic.com/en/investor-centre/press-releases/pr-2011/2011-11-08
Up another 7% in early trading, should easily march through the 7p mark now

According to RNS AT9 "Logging results indicate an uppermost interval of 57m along hole (7.5m vertical thickness) with an average net porosity of 10.6% and a maximum porosity value of 14.5%."
In other words 14.5% = very free flowing Gas
I think AT9 is gonna be another Big one


This is now looking seriously undervalued, were now looking at the very least 10 Tcf of Gas in place

Super

turbobaby

Very exciting times right now.

Techyo

Hi im new to buying shares etc, but i have a small amount of money to invest and i have been doing some research. Basically im looking for advice whether to invest in Petroceltic or Ormonde Mining, the reason i cant decide between the two is that both companies seem to have exciting projects coming up and are looking good.... any opinions on Ormonde mining?? Thanks.

Soulja boy

Techyo wrote: »

Hi im new to buying shares etc, but i have a small amount of money to invest and i have been doing some research. Basically im looking for advice whether to invest in Petroceltic or Ormonde Mining, the reason i cant decide between the two is that both companies seem to have exciting projects coming up and are looking good.... any opinions on Ormonde mining?? Thanks.

I'm not sure. I got in at 4p with petro and were at 9 now though prospects look good and its probably going to go a little higher.

Lord TSC

I got in at 11c months back. Wondering if I should sell and try and break even as soon as I can, now its back up a bit, or if I should risk waiting and seeing can I turn even a little profit...

HarvestMoon

Hi all, holder of these in a previous life and have bought in again recently. Think there will be strong upward movement here in next few months if they can deliver on various items in pipeline at present. Also if they do that there is no reason why someone should not be moving in to buy them out. Interesting times.

Question for any PCI holders on the differing prices quoted between the LSE and ISE prices. The spread on ISE is a lot wider and I think there is a risk that if you sold via that route you may think you were going to get say 8c a share but end up with 7c given the spread, whereas on the LSE the spread is much tighter. Anyone any insights on to how to avoid losing out if I was going to sell at given point in time?

Grecco

HarvestMoon wrote: »

The spread on ISE is a lot wider and I think there is a risk that if you sold via that route you may think you were going to get say 8c a share but end up with 7c given the spread, whereas on the LSE the spread is much tighter. Anyone any insights on to how to avoid losing out if I was going to sell at given point in time?

Firstly on ISE the volumes are much lower so the spread is higher.
You can set a sell limit on your price which will be the lowest price you will accept for the sale so if you say 8c then its 8c+ is the sale price.

As for finding an exit point, that really depends on the type of investor/speculator you are.
PCI is more speculation than investment so finding an exit isnt that easy. You should be using charts and then keep informed on any upcoming events such as drill results etc
If you look at the charts now they are Bullish for PCI, but why Sell now when you know whats coming down the line....
Timing and Patience is Key

yobr

Grecco wrote: »

If you look at the charts now they are Bullish for PCI, but why Sell now when you know whats coming down the line....
Timing and Patience is Key

I am going to hold until end of January and see where we are at then....hopefully double figures

HarvestMoon

Grecco wrote: »

As for finding an exit point, that really depends on the type of investor/speculator you are.
Timing and Patience is Key

Thanks Grecco. I was using the 8c spread as an illustration. Regarding exit I think this is headed for double figures if the mgt team can deliver over next few months, mind you that could take 6-12.

Having said that there is a lot of potential upside here which makes it more of a speculative one for the moment. Looking at some broker NAV's currently the spread is as wide as 12c to 28c a share.

As said in my mind if it gets to early double figures I think that would be decision time on exit or perhaps take a longer hold view. Given PCI's history it could be a rocky road to get to that point!

I do think the beefed up mgt team with the ex Tullow guy on board is a big positive, they have promised a lot for a long time and perhaps now it is time to deliver.

If you also add in a reasonable cash position, the Enel cash (if it comes), the recent finance facility, that all comes to ballpark $250m. If they can't make something from that and positive drilling results then feck knows what they are up to! Onward and upward.

Comordha

She's flying this morning, news of Exxon entering Kurdistan has sent this share wild and the current NAV doesn't even include much of the ENEL gas deal. This one could yet be a multi-bagger in the medium term (3-5 years).

Grecco

Comordha wrote: »

(3-5 years).

I think 3 to 5 years is too long for even my patience!! I was hoping to top slice when we get a full valuation of Algeria priced into the SP (Hopefully mid teens) then have a free ride for Kurdistan for 2013 which is going to be one hell of a year for them.

Kurdistan now looks like the best place in the world to be looking for oil, and were in a real sweet spot.
I ve criticized PCI management before but now it looks like an absolute master stroke.

yobr

Grecco wrote: »

I think 3 to 5 years is too long for even my patience!! I was hoping to top slice when we get a full valuation of Algeria priced into the SP (Hopefully mid teens) then have a free ride for Kurdistan for 2013 which is going to be one hell of a year for them.

Kurdistan now looks like the best place in the world to be looking for oil, and were in a real sweet spot.
I ve criticized PCI management before but now it looks like an absolute master stroke.

Think we have all been critical of PCI mgt but as you say this looks inspired now especially with Exxon now on the scene. I'm sitting on a paper loss but confident that I will be back in profit by the end of this year...I bought some during the recent drop but as I was worried about consolidation and about having all my eggs in one basket could have bought a lot more but didn't.. Are you worried about possible consolidation?

Grecco

yobr wrote: »

Are you worried about possible consolidation?

In one word No,
The only dark cloud is the ratification of the Enel Deal which seems to be dragging a bit and is holding back the SP. When this gets ratified the SP will rise fast
Speculation starting floating about that a minor such as PCI could be swallowed up whole by HESS. While this would be great news for us, I`d rather it happened after the Enel deal went through then HESS would have to cough up even more dosh

Soulja boy

A couple of rough days on this... Has me feeling restless.

yobr

Soulja boy wrote: »

A couple of rough days on this... Has me feeling restless.

Best to revisit then as to why you bought in the first place? For me, two reasons for the drop, (i) profit taking and (ii) lingering concerns regarding Euro debt and US debt worries. Should have Enel confirmation soon as BOC did say four weeks...might be a nice time to top up?