This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

maquiladora

Latest UKMO fax for tomorrow.

Has the low about 5mb stronger than the GFS but same as the NMM.

Pangea

Is fridays storm a non event for us northerners?

Tomorrow looks like a normal storm event for us like last weeks.

ninebeanrows

Pangea wrote: »

Is fridays storm a non event for us northerners?

Tomorrow looks like a normal storm event for us like last weeks.

Looks quite breezy up there.

Ye at the moment Friday's system is struggling to be modelled but one would suggest it would have much effect on the far north.

snow ghost

The winds just started up here now out of nowhere... and I can honestly say it sounds very menacing already, it has an air of nastiness about it. Becareful out there folks.

Pangea

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Jim Andrews of Accuweather calling 3 storms 'throughout the British Archipelago'

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&article=0

Wow they took the word Atlantic and replaced it with British.
What next the North British Ocean :eek:

maquiladora

Weather Warning

Issued at 12 December 2011 - 17:01

Weather warning- update

Stormy conditions will develop later tonight and will continue throughout Tuesday.
Gale to strong gale southwesterly winds will affect much of the country especially the west and the north.
West and Nortwest areas of the country: Mean wind speeds will reach 60 to 80 Km/h with gusts of 100 to 130 Km/h.
Elsewhere countrywide: Mean wind speeds of 45 to 65 Km/h with gusts of 80 to 110 Km/h.
The combination of very strong winds and snow or sleet showers will give hazardous driving conditions in parts of the west and northwest.
Very high seas are forecast on Tuesday along the northwest, west and southwest coasts and coupled with the high spring tides there is the threat of coastal flooding.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

maquiladora

12Z ECM looks similar to GFS at 48 hours anyway.

Redsunset

Not good at 72h either,where me storm:pac:

Reckless Abandonment

Gone

premiercad

Interesting from Noaa for EDIT actually its for Wednesday ,looks fairly stormy.

Just to update redsunsets post this just issued from NOAA for wedensday
Low filling but loads of wind wrapped around it

maquiladora

So it's UKMO & GME Vs. ECM & GFS.

Next stop, 18Z GFS. :pac:

Reckless Abandonment

maquiladora wrote: »

So it's UKMO & GME Vs. ECM & GFS.

Next stop, 18Z GFS. :pac:

Hard to bet against the ECM & GFS

tylercollins

Not sure if someone else has posted this already but UK Met Office have now fixed their warning to include only Northern Ireland :P



Would there reason behind this be anything to do with the possibility of Met Éireann maybe forecasting something different and not wanting to step on their toes?

snaps

Did anyone see the BBC forecast at 18.25? All the white heading in from the west (snow)!:D

irish1967

The inclusion of ROI on one warning yesterday was apparently a rate one off.

maquiladora

irish1967 wrote: »

The inclusion of ROI on one warning yesterday was apparently a rate one off.

Probably was just a catch all warning due to the high uncertainty at the time. A little less uncertain now so they have removed Scotland, probably just fixed editing out the RoI then at the same time.

Sponge Bob

Jet stream in position.

maquiladora

Latest UKMO fax chart for 72 hours :

Sponge Bob

I think the thursday friday event will be nothing bar possibly along the south coast...same as today, 50KT gusts at most barring Sherkin and Valentia perhaps reaching 55KT. Same as today in the west in fact and hardly a warning around at all for that compared to the tuesday conniptions

It will be different for northern europe on friday and saturday though.

I wonder whether that low south of Iceland on weds will develop, I'd nearly worry more about that system deepening and catching the jet stream than I would about the far off Atlantic one.

snaps

2 beautiful swirls developing to the west of Iceland. Finding it hard to attach a picture!

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Hooter23

Do we have a storm or not :mad::mad:

We still dont know do we

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest UKMO fax chart for 72 hours :

Very much in line with the UKMO model output. Will be interesting to see the ensemble mean run from ECM when it eventually rolls out to see if there is any change in positioning.

tayto lover

IMBACKLATER wrote: »

Louisburgh, near roonagh pier.

Is that where you get the boat for Inisturk?
If so it's a lovely area and I rented a house near there a good few years ago. Had a great time.

ninebeanrows

Evening folks, you would have to say the odds are in favour of a system moving to the south of Dublin and possibly reaching its peak north of London. It would seem the risk has transferred south and it will be a rapidly moving feature. Although this is just a consensus evaulation.

UKM would be rather different with strongest winds from Meath southwards.

Of course, it is strange to see a system like this move south, usually we find them deviating to the Northwest. So maybe something to consider.

It seems like it is crucial for the low to develop as much as possible by T48hr to have the force to ingest the cold air and trough to its north which will feed its development.

The odds are turning against it and towards something more southerly over central England.

Although a great model watch and lots of uncertainty.

Su Campu

The GFS shows a healthy little upper shortwave trough moving southeastwards to the west of Ireland Wednesday which should generate a nice comma feature, bringing heavy hail and thunderstorms to the southwest and west later in the day. Just something for our southern friends to while away the time with!

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest UKMO fax chart for 72 hours :

Mad to think the UKM could be so wrong with a 72hr chart.

If that were how things ran it would be extremely worrying for Ireland.

It is a really crazy situation we find ourselves in.
The UKM are backing their model.

JanuarySnowstor

Any link to fax??

leahyl

Very exciting stuff guys - I'm checking in here constantly for latest updates. Keep it up:)

JanuarySnowstor

Sorry see fax above.
Indeed the UK Met seem convinced of it's path.
If they turn out right it proves they have access to a lot more info than we do. I find them very professional and would sooner have them on board than not! Game on still for Thursday's storm, indeed as others have mentioned the worst storms are thos that strike without much advance warning

Deep Easterly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Any link to fax??

Links to FAX forecast charts (in Tiff format)
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