Property Market in Waterford

reni10 · 22-07-2011 9:46am

Aarnikotka wrote: »

The first one is detached, not semi; I see your point regarding the prices though.

In their title and in the search results both of those Collins Avenue properties come back saying "Semi-Detached House" so if the first one is actually detached then the agent listing it should be shot for not even listing it correctly!!!

Only in the property description does it mention anything about it being a detached property and the picture does not prove it conclusively!
Max it is worth anyway if it is detached is another €20k so should be about €150k

nkay1985 wrote: »

Reni, are you an estate agent yourself? It's just that you speak authoritatively on the subject so I assume it's more than just a passing interest.

I am not a Real Estate agent myself I am just someone pretty interested in investing in property and have had my eyes on the Irish property market for a very long time.

wellboytoo wrote: »

Whereas I agree with your statements on the estate itself, three of these units sold for over €500.k this year alone, so it kinda blows your theory out of the water. two of them were forced bank sales, admittedly the three buyers had a substantial amount of the deposit and still had difficulty raising the balance through mortgage.

As for Ballinamona, who really cares what goes on out there!

That place is an ambomination and a real testament to why Ireland is now on its knees after years of pure unadulterated stupidity and greed!

ToxicPaddy · 22-07-2011 11:31am

reni10 wrote: »

As for Ballinamona, who really cares what goes on out there! That place is an ambomination and a real testament to why Ireland is now on its knees after years of pure unadulterated stupidity and greed!

Couldn't agree with you more.. When it first started and sites were going for €50k each. That was seen as expensive at the time but that was for a decent fully serviced site of over half an acre or more.

On that you'd fit a nice sized house and detached garage with plenty of space and privacy all around. However after the first half a dozen or so houses were built, things started going a bit nuts with the property market and the whole place went down hill..

It had the potential to be an amazing place to live, large luxury houses in a private estate, large sites surrounded by mature woodland.. instead you had these abominations of house crowbarred onto tiny sites and making a mockery of the whole look and feel of the place.. a complete joke!!..

I know someone who was offered a site there with full planning permission for a huge house on it.

The site cost €450k alone and the house would cost somewhere in the region of €550k to build and kit out.. so €1 million up front before you started. They laughed at it and told the estate agent to come back when the site was down to €100k and they might think about and this was at the height of the boom.

That kinda says it all really. :rolleyes:

Tox

reni10 · 22-07-2011 12:28pm

Another 3 bed semi for sale in Collins Avenue just put up on Daft.ie:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605371

Again this is only worth €130k at most but is advertised at €180k!

We had 2 yesterday advertised for €245k and €195k and 1 today at €180k so at least the price is going in the right direction!

I believe these should be advertised for €140k and then accept any offer over €120k.

They will be worth €100k in about 12 months...

reni10 · 22-07-2011 2:02pm

reni10 wrote: »

Another 3 bed semi for sale in Collins Avenue just put up on Daft.ie:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605371

Again this is only worth €130k at most but is advertised at €180k!

Hah, they just updated this listing to now say region €190k!

Looks like it is the same property as the one listed yesterday for €195k which has now also been changed to region €190k.
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605221

Some great Real Estate agents out there alright!

So one minute with one agent it is €195k then the next minute with another agent it is €180k and then someone must have called someone and they both agreed on region €190k!

Talk about amateur hour!!!!

jayboi · 22-07-2011 2:51pm

reni10 wrote: »

Hah, they just updated this listing to now say region €190k!

Looks like it is the same property as the one listed yesterday for €195k which has now also been changed to region €190k.
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605221

Some great Real Estate agents out there alright!

So one minute with one agent it is €195k then the next minute with another agent it is €180k and then someone must have called someone and they both agreed on region €190k!

Talk about amateur hour!!!!

If you look at 2 of the same properties listed under a different real estate agents you'll notice if you havent already they they use the exact same photos,
so i am assuming they are sharing the photos they take which I find strange for competiting businesses.
I would imagine after reading the few examples that the real estate agents are no more in competition with each other then the man on thre moon.

I wouldnt be suprised if there wasnt an effort amongst them to keep prices artificially high.

nkay1985 · 22-07-2011 3:09pm

reni10 wrote: »

I am not a Real Estate agent myself I am just someone pretty interested in investing in property and have had my eyes on the Irish property market for a very long time.

So, for you, the lower prices go, the better. So, even if you're being more realistic than a lot of people and real estate agents, you're likely to be pessimistic about the peoperty market so that you might get a better return if and when you do invest.

For what it's worth I don't think you're too far off, just a little under with your baseline and expecting too much of a further drop. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it though.

If €120k was the correct baseline and you expect that to drop to €100k, you think Waterford house prices are going to drop a further 16.7%. Aside from what the true value may be, I think prices won't fall that low because nit enough people will leave their house go for that. You'll always have a certain number who can do nothing about it and have to or bank repossessions but I don't think there will be a constant supply at such low prices.

dayshah · 22-07-2011 3:50pm

nkay1985 wrote: »

You'll always have a certain number who can do nothing about it and have to or bank repossessions but I don't think there will be a constant supply at such low prices.

You have a point, but the banks are moving in on some people. The banks can move in on the buy-to-let amateur landlord types as its not their family home.

But overall I don't think Waterford has a huge property overhang. Even places like that new housing estate in Kilmeadan are filling up.

anto2 · 22-07-2011 6:16pm

Sold a 4 bedroom house ,end of terrace ,semi ,large garden in Woodlawn grove ,40 year old house but renovated by me ,very near the WIT for E.220,000 in Febuary 2008 .It backed on to the Waterford Crystal sports ground .For that same money i could now get a better house in Dublin ,in a central location ( Dublin is my native City ).As i have moved abroad to Asia it does not matter though .
As a side note houses must be around E50,000 or less in Ballybeg by now ?

munster_mafia · 23-07-2011 12:43am

So would this house be of the 'baseline €120k' or is it overpriced at €122?

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=560746

reni10 · 23-07-2011 1:05am

munster_mafia wrote: »

So would this house be of the 'baseline €120k' or is it overpriced at €122?

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=560746

Less desirable location plus smaller than your usual 3 bed semi so I think worth more like €100k.

My take on it is this: Take the realistic advertised price(or if unrealistic calculate from the baseline as mentioned earlier) and with your first offer come in about 30% lower than that price.

So for this property advertised at nearly €123k my first offer would be about €85k then I would move up potentially in €5k increments until I got to €95k and would not go any higher after that.

nkay1985 · 23-07-2011 1:11am

munster_mafia wrote: »

So would this house be of the 'baseline €120k' or is it overpriced at €122?

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=560746

It's a very poorly done ad because the price quoted is actually the price for a 3-bed mid-terrace. The 3-bed end of terraces are €129,950 according to the ad. I don't think there are any 3-bed semis left.

I think the mid-terraces were around €170k when they were first available almost two years ago so they've dropped by over a third.

I bought a 3-bed semi here back then. You can now get a 4-bed detached for less than that and that was a couple of years after the crash! Unfortunately waiting wasn't an option we had available to us.

To be honest, the 4-beds aren't that great but they do give an extra room and I think there might be a utility room there too.

Back to the original point, when we bought we viewed the terraces and I really wasn't mad about the layout but, that being said, I think they're probably good value at the prices they're at now. I reckon the developer has already made a tidy sum on the estate so just wants to sell what's left and be out of here so he's selling for a very reasonable price.

anto2 · 23-07-2011 12:56pm

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=597056

I love that house , 5 bedrooms ,on one acre ,in Butlerstown ,with huge out buildings .Asking E230,000 .If somebody could get it for E200,000 ,it would be the deal of the Century .

dayshah · 23-07-2011 1:32pm

anto2 wrote: »

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=597056

I love that house , 5 bedrooms ,on one acre ,in Butlerstown ,with huge out buildings .Asking E230,000 .If somebody could get it for E200,000 ,it would be the deal of the Century .

Yeah, it looks like good value alright. I find the picture of the bedroom funny though, towels and clothes tossed about everywhere. You'd think that when they are selling the biggest thing most people will ever sell, that they'd tidy up the bedroom before taking a photo.

cjgib · 23-07-2011 9:24pm

http://www.irishhousehunter.com/

this site shows the asking price changes as published on property websites.

Reality is slowly dawning.

anto2 · 24-07-2011 4:13am

dayshah wrote: »

Yeah, it looks like good value alright. I find the picture of the bedroom funny though, towels and clothes tossed about everywhere. You'd think that when they are selling the biggest thing most people will ever sell, that they'd tidy up the bedroom before taking a photo.

Right ,did you also notice the 5 rolls of bog paper in the bathroom .Some body must have the ****s in that house

anto2 · 24-07-2011 4:25am

dayshah wrote: »

Yeah, it looks like good value alright. I find the picture of the bedroom funny though, towels and clothes tossed about everywhere. You'd think that when they are selling the biggest thing most people will ever sell, that they'd tidy up the bedroom before taking a photo.

cjgib wrote: »

http://www.irishhousehunter.com/

this site shows the asking price changes as published on property websites.

Reality is slowly dawning.

Very interesting site .Thanks for that .

reni10 · 27-07-2011 12:35am

At last we finally see a proper advertisement with a realistic price:
4 bedroom semi + converted garage on Dunmore Road for €130k

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605891

I believe this is probably one of the first realistic advertised prices we have seen!

I know that 3 bed semis are only actually selling at €110k-€120k no matter what they are advertised for or where they are located so this 4 bedder is perfectly priced.

This now does mean though that a new precedent has been set and has pushed all 3 bed semi's down by about €20k to about €100k!

Who in their right mind would pay €200k+ for a 3 bed semi if a 4 bed semi is advertised for €130k without any need to negotiate!?!

All so called Real Estate agents and sellers really need to take note of this €130k price tag and if they want to sell I reiterate my call to price their properties according to the current realistic €120k baseline or else you would be better advised to not waste your time!

ComfyKnickers · 28-07-2011 10:40am

cjgib wrote: »

http://www.irishhousehunter.com/

this site shows the asking price changes as published on property websites.

Reality is slowly dawning.

Wow, very interesting site, never even knew it existed, thanks for posting.

anto2 · 28-07-2011 4:32pm

reni10 wrote: »

At last we finally see a proper advertisement with a realistic price:
4 bedroom semi + converted garage on Dunmore Road for €130k

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605891

I believe this is probably one of the first realistic advertised prices we have seen!

I know that 3 bed semis are only actually selling at €110k-€120k no matter what they are advertised for or where they are located so this 4 bedder is perfectly priced.

This now does mean though that a new precedent has been set and has pushed all 3 bed semi's down by about €20k to about €100k!

Who in their right mind would pay €200k+ for a 3 bed semi if a 4 bed semi is advertised for €130k without any need to negotiate!?!

All so called Real Estate agents and sellers really need to take note of this €130k price tag and if they want to sell I reiterate my call to price their properties according to the current realistic €120k baseline or else you would be better advised to not waste your time!

Thats a very crap advert .It does not give a front view of the house or describe the garden or show any of the supposed 2 bathrooms .

Hoffmans · 28-07-2011 11:45pm

anto2 wrote: »

Thats a very crap advert .It does not give a front view of the house or describe the garden or show any of the supposed 2 bathrooms .

thats cause its a crap house want pump least 30k into it ta bring it up to scratch, looks like a rental house with nothing done to it since the 80s fittings wise, tho not a bad area ....

fitzeyboy. · 29-07-2011 12:01am

dayshah wrote: »

You have a point, but the banks are moving in on some people. The banks can move in on the buy-to-let amateur landlord types as its not their family home.

But overall I don't think Waterford has a huge property overhang. Even places like that new housing estate in Kilmeadan are filling up.

Would you believe Fán Glas in Kilmeaden is sold out. They are only building houses to order now. Although there are huge discounts on the original prices.

anto2 · 29-07-2011 8:19am

Hoffmans wrote: »

thats cause its a crap house want pump least 30k into it ta bring it up to scratch, looks like a rental house with nothing done to it since the 80s fittings wise, tho not a bad area ....

Whats shown does not look too bad ,but they seem to have made a bed room out of the living room .As you say probably a rental house .

Dan133269 · 11-09-2011 11:34am

This was a very interesting thread, perhaps we could breathe new life into it.

I found this property on daft.
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=602068

The property is in need of complete refurbishment it says. So basically the price tag is attributable to the 1 acre site of secluded land, is this a normal price for land?

reni10 · 11-09-2011 12:31pm

Yeah I enjoyed posting in this thread, so heres a few things I noticed over the last few weeks.

This fine property in Co.Waterford near Dungarvan on 1 acre of land was listed at €320k for the last few weeks butprobably did not get any offers I would say as it is now listed as "Price on Application":
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=614599

I think though this is worth something more like €250k and is going to be hard to shift for anything more than that.

Then you still have other examples of more standard Waterford City properties being priced ridiculously like this small 3 bed semi in Williamstown Glen for €229k!
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=613087
That is a €110-€120k property!

Advertised prices have continued to fall it seems with lots of 3 and 4 bed semi's now being advertised at between €140k-€170k when previously they were advertised at about €180k-€230k.

I still stand by my take on standard 3 bed semis actually worth about €110k-€120k and 4 bed semis €130k-€140k and 3 bed detached properties €135k-€150k.

With the budget coming in December and more people losing their jobs in Waterford I think we are looking at a fall again of about 10%-15% by about March 2012.

Dan133269 · 11-09-2011 2:11pm

Jaysus Reni that first house is unbelievable for that money considering what it would have cost during the boom. Only catch is it is a bit remote. Then again, that is a plus for some people.

Although this is not strictly concerning Waterford, take a look at this
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0910/1224303850107.html?via=mr

It's clear that property prices are not going to recover any time soon if estate agents are literally giving houses away.

reni10 · 19-09-2011 11:06pm

We are getting there now to realistic prices with this 3 bed detached on the Dunmore Road advertised for €159k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=617570

Looks to be a decent house and I think will go for about €140k-€150k.

There is no way that houses like these 3 bed semis below in the same area are worth more so these sellers and real estate agents need to reprice immediately or they are just loosing money everyday they sit on their ridiculously priced properties:

€229k!!!:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=613087

€219k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=598030

€195k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=599872

€190k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605371

€185k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=597799

€175k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=597783

All these need to be revised down to €100k-€120k, they are worth no more!

With more job losses in Waterford and the upcoming December budget of doom I now think prices will fall even further in Waterford then I thought a few months ago with a 3 bed semi baseline price of about €80k-€100k coming very soon!

Birdfood · 20-09-2011 2:24am

Things are going to get even worse for this country's economy as a whole if there is too much doomsaying amongst speculators. Remember a huge crash further in prices won't be good for any of us, whether you've got property or not, so it's not really something to be celebrated or eagerly anticipating. It's OK to be realistic and everybody knows a lot of properties are advertised at too high a price. However I personally know of a good few people who have bought and sold in recent times at prices a fair bit better than some of average ranges you've speculated here, and those purchases have not been by cash buyers, they've been with mortgages, albeit it wasn't the easiest process in the world to get the mortgages but they were given. So in my opinion unless you're an expert with real statistics on actual sales figures in your hands you can't be putting your forecasts for the market about as fact or the standard to go by.

As an additional note, according to the CSO and others, Housing needs in Ireland are going to increase a lot in the next 5 years and beyond due to population growth figures - population trends indicate that boom-time first time buyers will be wanting to up-size as their families expand and increasing birth rates mean the prospect of more 1st time buyers emerging on the market.
An increase in demand and a levelling off of supply should be a strong stabilising force on property prices in the medium term, in fact as crazy as it sounds, there are fears of a shortage in supply emerging.

Estate agents with a dose of inertia and unrealistic vendors shouldn't be the first port of call to get property moving in my opinion, the focus and the pressure needs to be put heavily on the banks to responsibly give out loans so things can get moving at the pace they should be.

That's my tuppence worth anyhow.

reni10 · 20-09-2011 3:35am

Birdfood wrote: »

So in my opinion unless you're an expert with real statistics on actual sales figures in your hands you can't be putting your forecasts for the market about as fact or the standard to go by.

Hmmmm, so you don't like my opinion! That is your opinion and you are entitled to it just like I am!

I have formed an opinion based upon historical sales, keeping a close eye on the property market in Waterford and speaking with real estate agents who are the supposed experts.
I think I have been some what accurate in my forecasts so if you don't think they are worthwhile then you have every right to post your own opinion or ignore.

And by the way I am not being a doomsayer as that is not worth anything to me or anyone else, I am being a realist!

wellboytoo · 20-09-2011 7:47am

Dan133269 wrote: »

This was a very interesting thread, perhaps we could breathe new life into it.

I found this property on daft.
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=602068

The property is in need of complete refurbishment it says. So basically the price tag is attributable to the 1 acre site of secluded land, is this a normal price for land?

If anyone wants to view it , it is on the opposite side of the road as shown on google maps, nice little house, lovely sunny site , house untouched since it was built circa 40 years ago, real value.... €180-€195k

dayshah · 20-09-2011 8:01am

Birdfood wrote: »

Things are going to get even worse for this country's economy as a whole if there is too much doomsaying amongst speculators. Remember a huge crash further in prices won't be good for any of us, whether you've got property or not, so it's not really something to be celebrated or eagerly anticipating.

Yeah, lets not talk down the economy :rolleyes:

If prices fall farther it would be feckin' great for me. I've some cash saved up, so I'd nearly be able to buy the house without a mortgage if prices fall further.

That will allow me to follow my dream and live like The Dude Lebowski.

ArtVandelay76 · 20-09-2011 12:20pm

reni10 wrote: »

We are getting there now to realistic prices with this 3 bed detached on the Dunmore Road advertised for €159k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=617570

Looks to be a decent house and I think will go for about €140k-€150k.

There is no way that houses like these 3 bed semis below in the same area are worth more so these sellers and real estate agents need to reprice immediately or they are just loosing money everyday they sit on their ridiculously priced properties:

€229k!!!:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=613087

€219k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=598030

€195k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=599872

€190k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=605371

€185k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=597799

€175k:
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=597783

All these need to be revised down to €100k-€120k, they are worth no more!

With more job losses in Waterford and the upcoming December budget of doom I now think prices will fall even further in Waterford then I thought a few months ago with a 3 bed semi baseline price of about €80k-€100k coming very soon!

Just curious Reni are you looking to buy a house yourself or is there another reason you have such an interest in wanting house prices to hit rock bottom?

fricatus · 20-09-2011 12:27pm

ArtVandelay76 wrote: »

Just curious Reni are you looking to buy a house yourself or is there another reason you have such an interest in wanting house prices to hit rock bottom?

I'll let Reni answer for him/herself, but the way you ask the question, you'd swear house prices at rock bottom was a bad thing!

A house is the most expensive thing most people will buy, and if the cost can be kept to a minimum, it means that that particular cost is kept low, and that people can have a relatively high standard of living off a relatively low wage. This feeds through to our international competitiveness.

We should be seeing high house prices not as some sort of badge of success, but as a failure in the economy.

Let prices fall. People like me may stay in negative equity for a long time, but the next generation won't have to go through all the crap of parental guarantees, 100% mortgages, having to find a partner/chip together with mates like my generation did.

reni10 · 20-09-2011 12:41pm

ArtVandelay76 wrote: »

Just curious Reni are you looking to buy a house yourself or is there another reason you have such an interest in wanting house prices to hit rock bottom?

I am interested in investing in property so my interest as such like any investor is to buy low and sell high to make a profit! If I can....

I doubt very much that me posting on a forum is having any impact whatsoever on the property market in Waterford, I am just calling it as I see it as this is a discussion on Property in Waterford and it is something that I have some self thought knowledge about.

My whole point here is not to will or wish anything, my point is this is what is really happening or I speculate will happen in the not too distant future; I might be right or I might be wrong.
I believe though that I am somewhat at least right and you will see prices fall to about those levels.

What you do with that information is your own business and you are more than welcome to post your own opinion based on what you see happening...

mozattack · 20-09-2011 1:01pm

I couldn't read this thread without topping myself.

Owe €650k across 4 houses, partner out of work. 2 kids and living on €800 a month for food despite working two jobs.

Some life.

ArtVandelay76 · 20-09-2011 1:06pm

fricatus wrote: »

I'll let Reni answer for him/herself, but the way you ask the question, you'd swear house prices at rock bottom was a bad thing!

A house is the most expensive thing most people will buy, and if the cost can be kept to a minimum, it means that that particular cost is kept low, and that people can have a relatively high standard of living off a relatively low wage. This feeds through to our international competitiveness.

We should be seeing high house prices not as some sort of badge of success, but as a failure in the economy.

Let prices fall. People like me may stay in negative equity for a long time, but the next generation won't have to go through all the crap of parental guarantees, 100% mortgages, having to find a partner/chip together with mates like my generation did.

Well that all makes sense. I wouldn't mind being in negative equity if i can still pay the mortgage every month, its when someone cant pay the mortgage and has to sell their house for lets say 100K but they still owe another 100K with no house to show for it.
Unless the government are going to introduce some sort of debt forgiveness scheme which i doubt they will i can see alot of people in trouble down the line.

Birdfood · 20-09-2011 9:52pm

mozattack wrote: »

I couldn't read this thread without topping myself.

Owe €650k across 4 houses, partner out of work. 2 kids and living on €800 a month for food despite working two jobs.

Some life.

I hope things work out for you. If you can muster up the courage at the moment with the banks they are open to negotiation, extending terms and giving interest only, in circumstances where they may not have done so in the past. It is happening more than people realise as the banks don't really have an alternative but to work with you because they don't really want to take assets off people that they can't shift then themselves.

If you could push for any adjustments on your loan terms in your favour to make life easier, it is very much worth it to stand up for yourself with the banks at the moment, even if they say no be persistent and keep pushing. In any case things will come around and the market will recover at some point, and you will shift those properties and be able to clear some or all of your debt, even though it mightn't seem so now.

I hope I haven't sounded patronising but I think it's possible to be realistic and optimistic for the future too, even though we have to try and ride out the bad times in the meantime.

Hoffmans · 20-09-2011 9:55pm

prices are on a downward spiral to zero any recovery will be generations away.................

wellboytoo · 20-09-2011 10:12pm

Hoffmans wrote: »

prices are on a downward spiral to zero any recovery will be generations away.................

Disagree, it will take a while but demand and supply will balance out eventually, quicker in the urban centres like Wfd, never probably in the areas that were overdeveloped with no natural market,i.e. Leitrim, Longford, parts of our own county, lots of Wex. but in a short few years there will be a market again, but not the silly prices of heretofore, but I predict small(needed) price increases in Wfd City within two years.
Except maybe ferrybank, where there is an over supply, and customer resistance.

Birdfood · 20-09-2011 10:33pm

wellboytoo wrote: »

Disagree, it will take a while but demand and supply will balance out eventually, quicker in the urban centres like Wfd, never probably in the areas that were overdeveloped with no natural market,i.e. Leitrim, Longford, parts of our own county, lots of Wex. but in a short few years there will be a market again, but not the silly prices of heretofore, but I predict small(needed) price increases in Wfd City within two years.
Except maybe ferrybank, where there is an over supply, and customer resistance.

I agree with this, this is what the analysts are saying to more or less, that serviced areas, urban areas and areas where people have long established roots and extended family connections will ride it out and recover, but isolated, under-serviced underpopulated places like your examples, that were falsely put out as commuter or satellite towns in the boom-times will probably see demolitions of the overhang and people cutting their losses. Luckily as you pointed out Waterford won't be badly affected in this regard.

reni10 · 20-09-2011 10:52pm

My take on it is there will be another 10-20% drop in property prices in Waterford over the next 12 months bringing the average 3 bed semi to about €80k-€100k and then we will see a leveling off for another year or so and then prices increasing by about 2-5% for a couple of years before leveling off again.

Waterford has an oversupply of houses at the moment and I don't see people flocking to live there, in fact the opposite is happening so until this goes the other way expect prices to continue to fall.

merlante · 20-09-2011 11:08pm

reni10 wrote: »

My take on it is there will be another 10-20% drop in property prices in Waterford over the next 12 months bringing the average 3 bed semi to about €80k-€100k and then we will see a leveling off for another year or so and then prices increasing by about 2-5% for a couple of years before leveling off again.

Waterford has an oversupply of houses at the moment and I don't see people flocking to live there, in fact the opposite is happening so until this goes the other way expect prices to continue to fall.

Agree with the first bit more or less. Although we might not even be in the euro this time next year, so nothing is certain.

Waterford does not have an especially bad oversupply of houses compared to some places. Also, when the complete census figures come out, I believe Waterford will be the fastest growing city in the state. Whether this will continue for the next 5 years is another question... Still I wouldn't be too pessimistic about Waterford. Things never got out of control during the boom.

Dan133269 · 21-09-2011 8:48am

wellboytoo wrote: »

Disagree, it will take a while but demand and supply will balance out eventually, quicker in the urban centres like Wfd, never probably in the areas that were overdeveloped with no natural market,i.e. Leitrim, Longford, parts of our own county, lots of Wex. but in a short few years there will be a market again, but not the silly prices of heretofore, but I predict small(needed) price increases in Wfd City within two years.
Except maybe ferrybank, where there is an over supply, and customer resistance.

Why do you think that property prices will increase over the next 2 years?
And why are they needed?

The way I see it, the national economy is faltering, employment is not increasing in any meaningful way, taxation and interest rates will be increased and young people are continuing to emigrate. All of these factors point towards a further drop in property prices.

Waterford specifically is suffering from higher than average degrees of unemployment, apparent very high rates of emigration relative to the rest of the country and a complete lack of any prospect of big investment in the city. This points towards property prices in Waterford falling to levels even below the national average.

wellboytoo · 21-09-2011 9:02am

Dan133269 wrote: »

Why do you think that property prices will increase over the next 2 years?
And why are they needed?

The way I see it, the national economy is faltering, employment is not increasing in any meaningful way, taxation and interest rates will be increased and young people are continuing to emigrate. All of these factors point towards a further drop in property prices.

Waterford specifically is suffering from higher than average degrees of unemployment, apparent very high rates of emigration relative to the rest of the country and a complete lack of any prospect of big investment in the city. This points towards property prices in Waterford falling to levels even below the national average.

Because people are buying at the moment when property is priced to sell,in two three weeks they are moving, nothing has or is being built, so logic dictates you will run out of units to sell pretty quickly, say eighteen months.
When that happens it will put an upward pressure on prices, too many buyers for too few houses, it is market forces.
I know people are being laid off,and emigrating, but only a percentage not all of them, and people need to eat sleep etc whether they are working or not.
Also it is not beyond reason to see the Responds , City Council and other housing agencies haveing to house people, so they will be in the market as well, looking to buy units at a knock down price.

Monty Burnz · 21-09-2011 9:22am

wellboytoo wrote: »

Because people are buying at the moment when property is priced to sell,in two three weeks they are moving, nothing has or is being built, so logic dictates you will run out of units to sell pretty quickly, say eighteen months.

And logic also says that if people continue to die or emigrate or even move to Dublin, properties will become available without any new building required. Factor in the next 3 years worth of tax increases (i.e. falling incomes) and its hard to see how prices are going anything other than downwards. There's also the vicious circle of negative price expectations (the opposite of how things work on the way up). People will hold off buying while prices fall, causing prices to fall.

wellboytoo wrote: »

When that happens it will put an upward pressure on prices, too many buyers for too few houses, it is market forces.

Do you really see a situation where there are too many buyers chasing too few homes?

Wasn't this what they told us during the bubble? How did that work out?

wellboytoo wrote: »

I know people are being laid off,and emigrating, but only a percentage not all of them, and people need to eat sleep etc whether they are working or not.
Also it is not beyond reason to see the Responds , City Council and other housing agencies haveing to house people, so they will be in the market as well, looking to buy units at a knock down price.

You don't need to buy to have somewhere to live - people will stay with their families, rent or whatever rather than shell out for a depreciating asset. The fact that you point to the council having to house so many impoverished people as a positive for property prices says more than my arguments ever could.

wellboytoo · 21-09-2011 9:29am

Dan133269 wrote: »

You don't need to buy to have somewhere to live - people will stay with their families, rent or whatever rather than shell out for a depreciating asset. The fact that you point to the council having to house so many impoverished people as a positive for property prices says more than my arguments ever could.

I did not, stop putting words in my mouth, I was answering a question put to me on the property market, nothing else, now put your prejudices back in their box and stick to the subject.

Monty Burnz · 21-09-2011 9:33am

wellboytoo wrote: »

I did not, stop putting words in my mouth, I was answering a question put to me on the property market, nothing else, now put your prejudices back in their box and stick to the subject.

So why did you write the following in defence of your claim that prices would be rising within the next 2 years?

wellboytoo wrote: »

Also it is not beyond reason to see the Responds , City Council and other housing agencies haveing to house people, so they will be in the market as well, looking to buy units at a knock down price.

reni10 · 21-09-2011 10:23am

People said 2-3 years ago prices cannot fall any further and of course they did!

Then last year the same thing was said again and that prices would rise!
And which way did they go?

The reality of it is and you don't have to be a genius to work this out:

1. Houses are still over priced in Waterford for the type of place it is(high unemployment, high outward emigration, oversupply of houses built, poor ongoing prospects for the city).
2. No standard houses are selling for more then €150k, they might be advertised for more but they are NOT selling(I have confirmed this with a number of estate agents)
3. There is NO inward emigration into Waterford
4. The banks are only lending to about 5-10% of the people who apply for mortgages and even then it is a tough job to actually get anything from them!
5. People are not trading up or down as they cannot sell their own property to enable them to move on.
6. So who does that leave that is actually buying? A very small percentage of people who have either saved up or are looking at investment.

Anyone that is buying is not going to buy now when they know taking all the above into account the prices will continue to fall about 10-20% in the next 12 months.

Once standard prices get to below €100k then I believe the correction that was needed will have happened and there will be a definite levelling off for a couple of years before then looking at small rises of between 2-5%.

As an investor I will be looking to get in right at the bottom and then hold for a few years while the place pays for itself from tenants and then sell if and when the prices rise, although I do not believe we will ever or should ever see the ridiculous prices we had during the so called boom so I would settle for a 20% profit in about 10-15 years time and hopefully by that time have also rented for about €700 per month and therefore also have pulled in about €120k in rent.

Anyone who thinks anything else will happen I believe is mistaken as they are probably the same people who said 2 or 3 years ago that prices cannot fall any further.

wellboytoo · 21-09-2011 11:33am

Monty Burnz wrote: »

So why did you write the following in defence of your claim that prices would be rising within the next 2 years?

Because its a fact, if people surrender or lose their privately bought houses, they are going to fall back on the above mentioned associations to house them , so they are going to need more stock, they will enter the market to buy because housing stock at the moment is below cost, so they would be crazy to build their own.
So my point being that it is not only the individual buyer is taking up the slack but state and co op buyers who tend to buy large blocks of houses, not individual units.
The most recent guestimate I have knowledge of (6 months old) is that there are 330 houses unsold in Waterford and its hinterland , at 12.5 units per month thats two years to clear the backlog.

Monty Burnz · 21-09-2011 12:12pm

wellboytoo wrote: »

Because its a fact, if people surrender or lose their privately bought houses, they are going to fall back on the above mentioned associations to house them , so they are going to need more stock, they will enter the market to buy because housing stock at the moment is below cost, so they would be crazy to build their own.
So my point being that it is not only the individual buyer is taking up the slack but state and co op buyers who tend to buy large blocks of houses, not individual units.
The most recent guestimate I have knowledge of (6 months old) is that there are 330 houses unsold in Waterford and its hinterland , at 12.5 units per month thats two years to clear the backlog.

And there will be no houses becoming available as people emigrate, die or leave for other reasons?

And even if the council bought a house for everyone that loses their house (they can't, and won't) that's still doesn't amount to positive demand as for every one they buy there will be at least one newly on the market.

And this idea of property being 'below cost' - cost is not static. The price of land (a major element of cost) is going through the floor way faster even than property prices, and the cost of the materials is going nowhere but down either as the amount that people are buying has also collapsed. I imagine labour costs aren't going to be what they were either. So a house that cost 200k to build in 2007 may cost 100k to build today. (figures very approximate, of course)

Dan133269 · 21-09-2011 12:32pm

wellboytoo wrote: »

I did not, stop putting words in my mouth, I was answering a question put to me on the property market, nothing else, now put your prejudices back in their box and stick to the subject.

Dunno how you managed to quote me on that, literally, but it was MontyBurnz who said it, not me. Didn't know that was possible!

Property Market in Waterford

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