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Property Market in Waterford

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭ wellboytoo


    Dan133269 wrote: »
    Dunno how you managed to quote me on that, literally, but it was MontyBurnz who said it, not me. Didn't know that was possible!

    LOL sorry about that don't know how I did it myself?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭ wellboytoo


    And this idea of property being 'below cost' - cost is not static. The price of land (a major element of cost) is going through the floor way faster even than property prices, and the cost of the materials is going nowhere but down either as the amount that people are buying has also collapsed. I imagine labour costs aren't going to be what they were either. So a house that cost 200k to build in 2007 may cost 100k to build today. (figures very approximate, of course)

    I agree with you on costs , the very old and simple rule of development was, is and always will be, the site cost can be no more than 10 % of the retail value of the finished unit, be that commercial residential whatever, this was the rule the banks used to abide by, until they losty their ability to see reason.
    but even a timber frame three bed semi frame and roof erected will cost €35k plus add second fix site, planning costs , development costs, you are over €110 k plus add a 5% margin and VAT you are at €140k+ The real present day cost for a three bed semi .
    It just would not pay you to build one today, buy it


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭ gman2k


    wellboytoo wrote: »
    I agree with you on costs , the very old and simple rule of development was, is and always will be, the site cost can be no more than 10 % of the retail value of the finished unit, be that commercial residential whatever, this was the rule the banks used to abide by, until they losty their ability to see reason.
    but even a timber frame three bed semi frame and roof erected will cost €35k plus add second fix site, planning costs , development costs, you are over €110 k plus add a 5% margin and VAT you are at €140k+ The real present day cost for a three bed semi .
    It just would not pay you to build one today, buy it

    And that's the reason why the residential construction sector has zero future here for the next few years. What with the very high standard now required due to stringent building regulations, it would be impossible to get funding to build due to final property value.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭ reni10


    75% drop on Irelands most expensive house:
    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irelandrsquos-most-expensive-house-drops-in-price-by-a-staggering-euro43m-from-high-of-2005-2884260.html

    Sold for €58mil in 2005 and now they want €15mil! Looking unlikely they will get it!

    This tells you something about how things have gone....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭ Finnbar01


    reni10 wrote: »
    75% drop on Irelands most expensive house:
    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irelandrsquos-most-expensive-house-drops-in-price-by-a-staggering-euro43m-from-high-of-2005-2884260.html

    Sold for €58mil in 2005 and now they want €15mil! Looking unlikely they will get it!

    This tells you something about how things have gone....

    Or how they have far to go.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭ gman2k


    reni10 wrote: »
    75% drop on Irelands most expensive house:
    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irelandrsquos-most-expensive-house-drops-in-price-by-a-staggering-euro43m-from-high-of-2005-2884260.html

    Sold for €58mil in 2005 and now they want €15mil! Looking unlikely they will get it!

    This tells you something about how things have gone....

    Trophy properties have nothing got to do with the general property market!
    It's like car magazines that always have something like a Ferrari/ Lambo/ Porsche on the cover, but 99.999% of the readers will never own one!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭ Finnbar01


    gman2k wrote: »
    Trophy properties have nothing got to do with the general property market!
    It's like car magazines that always have something like a Ferrari/ Lambo/ Porsche on the cover, but 99.999% of the readers will never own one!

    May I ask your opinion? Do you think the general property market has bottomed out or does it still have some way to go?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭ gman2k


    There is no 'general' property market.
    A general property market is one where the ordinary working person/ family is able to avil of credit and therefore purchase property. Without credit, there is no market.
    Whilst there is a market for cash buyers due to distressed sales etc, that does not constitute a normal market as such.
    There is some way to go yet in the depression of values, due to contraction in the overall economy and reduction in GDP.
    It is my own personal opinion that the best the this country can look forward to is that in 5 years time we will be back at 2011 levels. The Troika led austerity cuts have only started, and the powers that be want to extract as much wealth from this country as possible before our eventual default and inevitable single currency (Euro) exit. Profits will be privatised and debts socialised. (Read ESB, water, sell-off as the profits and State guarantee for the likes of Anglo, Nationwide etc.....as the debts)
    The level of sovereign debt will be at an unsustainable level in 3-4 years time, and the repercussions for all economic activities in the state will be immense. This may sound like an overly negative outlook, but unfortunately it is a realistic one.
    Again, just because you don't want something to happen does not mean it won't happen.
    Would I buy property now? No.
    If I had capital, would I invest it anywhere in this 'state'? No.
    Ireland Inc. is a failed state, and is viewed as such by the financial markets, and is actually a third world country (in economic terms), we just have not woken up to that fact yet.

    Sorry if this reads purely as an criticism as the economy as a whole, but that has to be understood and appreciated if one is to view the 'property market' One is dependent on the success of the other. Unfortunately in Ireland we have viewed for too long the 'success' of the property market as an indication of the health of the economy, but of course in a normal functioning economy, a successful economy allows a healthy property market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭ reni10


    gman2k wrote: »
    There is no 'general' property market.
    A general property market is one where the ordinary working person/ family is able to avil of credit and therefore purchase property. Without credit, there is no market.
    Whilst there is a market for cash buyers due to distressed sales etc, that does not constitute a normal market as such.

    I pretty much agree with most of what you have said, there is another 10-20% to come out of prices in the next 6-12 months and then I see a levelling off for a few years.

    And to keep this on track here is another ridiculous pricing of property in Collins Avenue:
    €265k!!!:
    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=618199

    That is a max €150-€160k house in this current market and will be €130-€140k in 6 months time!

    Some people obviously live in another world....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭ Finnbar01


    reni10 wrote: »
    I pretty much agree with most of what you have said, there is another 10-20% to come out of prices in the next 6-12 months and then I see a levelling off for a few years.

    And to keep this on track here is another ridiculous pricing of property in Collins Avenue:
    €265k!!!:
    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=618199

    That is a max €150-€160k house in this current market and will be €130-€140k in 6 months time!

    Some people obviously live in another world....


    Cheers gman2k, my sentiment exactly. Also, I don't think your thread is being pesimistic, more like realistic.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 752 ✭✭✭ jayboi


    Any idea how many properties are for sale and let in the city?
    I'd imagine there would be a bit of an overlap between the two.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭ reni10


    Some more official figures out confirming property price drops across the country:
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0926/breaking20.html

    We definitely have not reached the bottom yet!

    Another 10-20% to go in Waterford over the next 6-12 months!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,545 ✭✭✭ Marley Clean Gasp


    I have read this thread with interest. I lived in Waterford from 2008 till 2010 and was actively looking for a house all that time. I moved back to dublin thanks to the dire economic situation. I can tell you that Waterford has been hit very hard in comparison to Dublin. There is no public sector to speak of to prop up the local economy and there is far to much low tech manufacturing and unskilled services. This is not a slur on Waterford (one of the most beautiful places in Ireland) its just a fact.

    I watched estate agents tell me there was no recession, then there will be a soft landing, then I was told every month that we had reached the bottom. Bar one stalwart, the estate agents in Waterford are snakes. They put phantom bidders against me, they did not pass on offers to vendors, they failed to disclose known structural problems and legal problems with properties. Also this multi agent selling that goes on in Waterford leads to some cut throat practice.

    Most of the properties I was interested in are either still for sale or off the market. When you watch the market as long as me you see properties come on and go off the market, later they reappear with different address or names to avoid the property pin.

    My advice, dont buy. You may say this helps nobody. Rent for a while longer. Within 2 years you will have saved tens if not hundreds of thousands. Its a bummer, but buying property now is madness even if the bank would give you money.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭ reni10


    This is a very strange one! 3 Bed, 3 Story Detached for €115k:
    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=619451

    I don't know anything about this area at all but for €115k for a detached property(although it looks really ugly!) then that is a pretty good price if the area is alright?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,027 ✭✭✭ fricatus


    reni10 wrote: »
    This is a very strange one! 3 Bed, 3 Story Detached for €115k:
    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=619451

    I don't know anything about this area at all but for €115k for a detached property(although it looks really ugly!) then that is a pretty good price if the area is alright?

    What a butt-ugly house! The area is fine, but I'm not so sure about that estate (not being smart here - I just don't know one way or the other). It's a council estate, but we all know that council estates can be fine as long as they avoid that 5% of tenants that always cause problems.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,556 ✭✭✭ Siamsa Sessions


    That house is not detached - it's end of terrace.

    For local authority housing, the estate is nice. But it's these tower-type houses that make the place kinda resemble a medium-security prison complex.

    Trading as Sullivan’s Farm on YouTube



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,967 ✭✭✭ nkay1985


    That house is not detached - it's end of terrace.

    For local authority housing, the estate is nice. But it's these tower-type houses that make the place kinda resemble a medium-security prison complex.

    Yeah, I'm sorry but no matter how cheap that house got, I would never buy buy it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,556 ✭✭✭ Nolanger


    Why not? Rent it out to a few nearby hospital staff and you'll have the money back in by the end of the decade.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,542 ✭✭✭ dayshah


    reni10 wrote: »
    This is a very strange one! 3 Bed, 3 Story Detached for €115k:
    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=619451

    I don't know anything about this area at all but for €115k for a detached property(although it looks really ugly!) then that is a pretty good price if the area is alright?

    Looks like they had a load of spare bricks, and didn't know what to do with them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,967 ✭✭✭ nkay1985


    Nolanger wrote: »
    Why not? Rent it out to a few nearby hospital staff and you'll have the money back in by the end of the decade.

    Sorry, I meant to say I'd never buy it to live in myself. And it's not really very close to the hospital and, as it's not very attractive, could prove difficult to rent if you were to go down that route.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,556 ✭✭✭ Nolanger


    dayshah wrote: »
    Looks like they had a load of spare bricks, and didn't know what to do with them.
    The architect who designed that got at least 400 points in the Leaving Cert!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,967 ✭✭✭ nkay1985


    Nolanger wrote: »
    The architect who designed that got at least 400 points in the Leaving Cert!

    He must not have gone to WIT so as we all know that nobody with more than 350 points goes there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭ Finnbar01


    Just heard on WLR that house prices in Waterford have dropped by 5% between June to September.

    Average house price is €148,000, approx half of what they were during the boom.

    A 49% price drop from peak.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭ reni10


    Daft.ie report saying the average 3 bed semi in Waterford is now €132k, I think that is a bit high as these figures seem to be based on the advertised asking price NOT the actual selling price; how many properties in Waterford actually have been selling for anywhere close to their asking price!:
    http://www.daft.ie/report/?utm_source=daft.ie&utm_medium=strap_line&utm_campaign=strap_5_daft_house_price_report_q2_2011

    Waterford now is about the 6th lowest for 3 bed semis in Ireland.

    As I have been saying for the last few months I feel €110k-€120k is the baseline price for a 3 bed semi on the Dunmore road with it being about another 10-20% less in other areas.

    Expect it to level out at about €100k in the next 6-12 months.

    Again my advice to anyone that needs to sell is set the price realistically and sell if you get anywhere within 25-35% of your realistic asking price otherwise you are sitting on a depreciating asset and also paying for that privilege in terms of your mortgage payments.
    If you don't need to sell then wait at least 5-10 years before even contemplating selling.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭ Finnbar01


    reni10 wrote: »
    Daft.ie report saying the average 3 bed semi in Waterford is now €132k, I think that is a bit high as these figures seem to be based on the advertised asking price NOT the actual selling price; how many properties in Waterford actually have been selling for anywhere close to their asking price!:
    http://www.daft.ie/report/?utm_source=daft.ie&utm_medium=strap_line&utm_campaign=strap_5_daft_house_price_report_q2_2011

    Waterford now is about the 6th lowest for 3 bed semis in Ireland.

    As I have been saying for the last few months I feel €110k-€120k is the baseline price for a 3 bed semi on the Dunmore road with it being about another 10-20% less in other areas.

    Expect it to level out at about €100k in the next 6-12 months.

    Again my advice to anyone that needs to sell is set the price realistically and sell if you get anywhere within 25-35% of your realistic asking price otherwise you are sitting on a depreciating asset and also paying for that privilege in terms of your mortgage payments.
    If you don't need to sell then wait at least 5-10 years before even contemplating selling.


    I'm currently renting and I'm fine with that. I won't buy yet as I'm genuinely worried about interest rates going up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭ gman2k


    Finnbar01 wrote: »
    Just heard on WLR that house prices in Waterford have dropped by 5% between June to September.

    Average house price is €148,000, approx half of what they were during the boom property bubble.

    A 49% price drop from peak.

    FYP ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,542 ✭✭✭ dayshah


    reni10 wrote: »
    Daft.ie report saying the average 3 bed semi in Waterford is now €132k, I think that is a bit high as these figures seem to be based on the advertised asking price NOT the actual selling price;

    Myhome and Daft are based on asking price. Only the CSO have one based on selling prices (the ESRI/TSB did, but stopped doing it).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭ wellboytoo


    I have a nice dog house I live in occasionally, costs me nothing to get in it but a fortune to get out?
    But its paid for.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭ reni10


    dayshah wrote: »
    Myhome and Daft are based on asking price. Only the CSO have one based on selling prices (the ESRI/TSB did, but stopped doing it).

    I don't believe the CSO release a report that breaks down the sale prices by region or at least I cannot find one from them that does it!

    I think if you did have an actual selling price based report for Waterford then you will see the 3 bed semi price is about €110k-€120k or maybe even less.

    When I see people putting up houses in Collins Avenue for €265k as has happened in the last few weeks then I really just wonder if these people and the so called Real Estate agent are actually in a coma and cannot see what is going on around them!

    I do not think any standard 3 or 4 bed house in Waterford City at the moment is worth more then about €160k and that is only for the best of the best!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,228 ✭✭✭ Dan133269


    Here's a good article that explains why house prices will continue to fall nationally.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2011/1001/1224305066691.html
    Ireland experienced the largest property bubble and the most violent property crash. That crash, alas, is not over yet, and prices are unlikely to stabilise until next year at the earliest. If the 2011 rate of decline in residential property prices continues for another 12 months, prices will fall by about 15 per cent from their current level. Given the headwinds facing the market, that is more likely than not.

    But the highly paid consultants who arrived in Ireland to stress-test the banks after last December’s EU-IMF bailout are working on an even gloomier set of assumptions. Their baseline view is that prices will fall by a further 20 per cent before the market hits bottom. In their worst-case scenario, the decline would be almost 30 per cent. That would bring the fall from the 2007 peak to 59 per cent.

    Although there are benefits to lower prices in the longer term, the weak property market feeds through to the wider economy in many ways. One of these is the wealth effect. When prices are rising, people feel better off as the value of their home – usually their biggest asset – grows in value. On average, they save less and spend more.

    When prices are on the way down, all this goes into reverse to create a negative wealth effect. Now people are salting away far higher proportions of their already shrunken incomes. The result is to reduce further the level of activity in the domestic economy.

    So how far will prices fall and for how much longer will the economy be afflicted by the resulting negative wealth effect?

    It is not necessarily the size of a bubble that determines how low prices will go when they fall. More important in the Tiger bubble was the extent to which it was inflated by unsustainable drivers, such as risk-blind bankers hosing money at anyone taking a punt on property.

    I think this last point is a good one. A lot of people think that just because prices are down 50% and will likely hit 65% within a year that that must be the bottom. There is a mentality that because prices have fallen so much that they cannot fall anymore. The reality, as pointed out in the article is that prices will continue to fall as long as the relevant factors push them in that way.

    And the reasons why:
    If there is an undersupply of houses in Britain, the building mania here between 1997 and 2007 has led to a huge oversupply. While the extent of that oversupply is contested, nobody doubts the existence of a large stock of unsold homes. According to the property website daft.ie, the number of unsold properties on its books up to the second quarter of this year had remained stubbornly high, with hardly any reduction over the past three years. This glut will weigh on the market for some time to come, putting continued downward pressure on prices.

    IF BUILDING TOO MANY houses can end in tears, so can bad lending by banks. Although the US did not look out of the ordinary in the property-price rises it experienced from 1997 to 2006 (130 per cent compared with Ireland’s 400 per cent), it has suffered the second-worst rich-world crash (after Ireland), and the residential property-price drops from coast to coast are now greater than those during the Great Depression in the 1930s.

    But if banks lent too much during the boom, they are not lending enough now. The latest figures, released yesterday, show that bank lending for property purchases continued its long decline in August. The lack of new mortgage financing is yet another factor weighing on the market, as is the rising cost of financing mortgages for those who have been able to secure them.

    At a time when almost all of the drivers of demand are weak, the psychology of buyers in a market where prices are falling has a further negative effect. When prices rose, seemingly inexorably, it was all about getting a foot on the property ladder, at almost any cost. But now that prices are falling, also seemingly inexorably, most rational people want nothing to do with the property ladder.

    This is part and parcel of any deflationary dynamic: potential buyers postpone their purchases in anticipation of even lower prices, sucking even more demand out of the market and adding momentum to the downward spiral.

    All of these are in the context of national house prices. Waterford in particular has been hit worse than average in terms of job losses and emigration, and it seems like it's going to continue that way. More bad news today with job losses at Rigney Dolphin. Thus, Waterford will see price reductions even higher than the national average.

    Out of interest, has anyone on here actually bought recently or considering buying at some time in the future in Waterford?


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