The Legacy of Brian Lenihan

margio wrote: »

Hi Laminations, firstly I welcome your normal state of mind regarding the nastiness of some of the posts. secondly regarding him been voted worst Minister for Finance in Europe, in all fairness he was voted that cuz of Ireland's economic mess. A few years previous Brian Cowen was voted best finance Minister in Europe, probably because everything appeared Rosy in the garden :

True margio, that measure of performance is rubbished when you look at how they rated Cowen. Like I said I don't fully blame Lenihan, I blame FF for placing him in an unsuitable position and the DoF for providing him with terrible estimates but how many corners did he announce that we turned? I think approaching the last election he admitted he had gotten a lot wrong. He, and FF in general, were not honest with the electorate while they were in power, that's the biggest gripe I'd have with his politics (and politics in general), that and the blanket bank guarantee. I don't trust FF on their account of Anglos inclusion. The happenings of Sept 28th need to come to light.

I feel like there is a lack of perspective in discussing his legacy. Was he a good finance minister? Nope. He's right up there with Alan Dukes in the 80's, Sean Lemass first time around etc in the running for our third worst finance minister ever.

But lets put it in perspective, because if there was an Olympic competition for the worst finance minister ever we have two contenders who would be vying with the relay team from Zimbabwe and Rudolf Hilferding of the Weimar Republic for the position of favourite. C McCreevey and B Cowan would do Ireland proud in such a competition.

By September 2008 we had the mother of all bubbles bursting all around us, a budgetary imbalance (caused by his predecessors) which would make Victoria Beckham look like a prudent shopper, and a banking system collapsing like a house of cards (having been built up on his predecessors watch).

Lets look at the options at that stage in time, with the benefit of 20:20 hindsight, and knowing that the guarantee was a huge mistake.

He could/ should have let Anglo/ INBS go to the wall but to prevent them dragging AIB with them, which in turn could have taken BOI with it, he would have had to have injected most of the NPRF into those two banks, and it still might not have been enough - had it worked his legacy would only have been as "the man who destroyed the NPRF" because none of us would have known how the guarantee would have panned out. Had it failed he would still have been the "the man who destroyed Ireland".

He could have let all the banks go, allowing our savings be destroyed, leaving us without cash in the morning after the run on the banks took place which would have left him with the legacy as "the man who allowed the banks steal our savings".

I can't think of another option for that point in time so lets move to the point where (apparantely) Tim Geithner, and (almost certainly) JC Trichet told him he was not allowed to "burn the bondholders" and he lacked the balls to stand up to them and call Trichet's bluff. In case any one has missed it, Trichet is currently engaged in precisely the same game of chicken with Germany over Greece. That being as is I'm not convinced that we would have won the game of chicken with Trichet, since it is not clear Germany will win.

Even if we had won, Trichet is not averse to burning bondholders because he has a philosophical objection to it. He (and Geithner, and now the French) are opposed to it because they view it as risking contagion. So had he burned the bondholders, and had the ECB been right, then the global economy could have plunged back into recession and bye bye Irish export driven growth to help balance the books.

In summary my honest analysis is that Lenihan is certainly culpable as a member of the FF government who got us into this mess but the vitriol directed at him goes beyond apportioning him a share of the collective guilt of that government.

He was certainly not a great Minister of Finance, but we won't be able to judge his legacy for decades, and he had the misfortune to be on a road which at every single crossroads offered him a couple of roads clouded in fog, and a few more that he was being told led to high cliffs.

The most ironic anti-Lenihan posts I have read are those blaming him for the USC. One of the most positive steps he took to try to negate some of the worst excesses of the McCreevy/ Cowan era by trying to bring more taxpayers back into the tax net in line with other jurisdictions.

As for dishonesty, such allegations are prefaced on the assumption that there are universal truths in the world of Finance rather than just opinions which is not borne out. And had he stated his opinions as being opinions with sufficient caveats then there is no chance that the markets might have agreed with him.

In summary, a man who made mistakes in a role destined to fail. But also a father and husband and someone who died too young.

I agree with the likes of Laminations that people should not be heralding him as a great politician, the man certainly made mistakes. But neither should people be laying all the blame for where we are at right now at his doorstep, even if the blame lay solely at the door of an tAire Aireagadais we have two far stronger contenders to support.

Yesterday one thing came to mind, maybe it is the leaving cert being on and all.

The poem September 1913 comes to mind.

Except I have take the liberty of changing a few words.

What need you being come to sense,
But fumble in a greasy bank,
And add the million to the billion
And debt to shivering debt, until
You have dried the marrow from the bone?
For men were born to pay and pay:
Soverign Ireland's dead and gone,
It's with Lenihan in the grave.

jmayo wrote: »

He he he :pac:

Two pro ff/pro lenny posters thanked you for that.
They don't get the irony.

They've a sense of humour though.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Where did you get that stat?

I was being a bit juvenile and only joking.

Well .... half joking!

end a eknny wrote: »

shows how nuch you know i think as much of f.f as i do f.g and lab which isnt much but i dont blame f.f for everything that is wrong in the same way i didnt congtratulate them during the so called boom simple fact is they were implementing the wishes of the people and if they hadnt f.g lab would have been elected and they would have and we would still be where we are now. i have yet seen somebody come on and explain in simple terms how they thought the irish economy would stand up while every other economy was crumbling.while they are at it they could explain how every body knew the crash was coming and that it was all f.f fault and yet thry continued to vote for them until it was too late

For someone that is not ff supporter, you sure do use their language.

Our economic woes are not down to a global recession, not down to subprime lending in the USA and Lehmans collapse, not down to an earthquake in Japan, not down to El Nino or some other spurious reason you or anyone else dreams up, but down to ff, Irish light touch regulatory authorities under control of ff, greedy bankers and greedy ff supporting developers/builders.

How many of the other economies that crumbled are in the same mess where their entire banking system has collapsed ?
Maybe Iceland.
Although they appear to be on the road to recovery whereas we are on the road to nowhere.

Eh how many times do you people need to be told, they were implementing the wishes of some of the people.
They were the 40 odd percent of the people who bothered voting for them.
That does not even equate to a majority of the actual people that lived in the state as only 60 to 70% of voters actually vote.

end a eknny wrote: »

you are truly wasted on boadds

After trying to read your previous post I agree.

K-9 wrote: »

They've a sense of humour though.

Not if that scion of ff aristocracy david mcsavage is anything to go by. :rolleyes:

Liam Byrne wrote: »

...

And it wasn't just Anglo, considering his comments about it being imperative to "return AIB to it's former glory" - a "glory" that saw them previously bailed out and writing off debts of politicians.

Not to mention the glory of defrauding the revenue commissioners and their customers numerous times.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

87% of the statistics in this forum are just made up!

And the other 13% ?

swordofislam wrote: »

Will Conor Lenihan stand for FF in Dublin West.

Sweet Jesus please not:eek:I dont want that pleb canvasing around my area then again his late brother did'nt bother his hole calling around D15 during the election probely knew what kind of reception he would get.