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Logically Sinn Fein are right

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Comments

  • #182
    jimaneejeebus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭jimaneejeebus


    Euroland wrote: »
    OK, here just a few:

    1) Default, the EU and what's next

    Kevin O'Rourke, Constantin Gurdgiev, David McWilliams discuss.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YVPW9W-f8A

    2) The People's Economy - Bank Debt vs Sovereign Debt: What's the difference?

    Discussion by Kevin O'Rourke, Ronan Lyons, Constantin Gurdgiev & David McWilliams on the banking debt

    3) NCB: The future for Irish bank senior bonds

    http://www.ncbresearch.com/fixed_income/SeniorBondIssue.pdf

    4) Goodbody: Irish Debt Dynamics

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/48415937/Debt-Dynamics-Presentation

    5) Ireland's new toxic loans will spark social conflict, says economist Morgan Kelly

    Economist Morgan Kelly says the bank bailout for Allied Irish bank and Bank of Ireland will be worse than the government is admitting

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/08/ireland-toxic-mortgages-country-ruin-economist

    6) Brian Lucey: Time to persuade Europe debt write-down is needed:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0215/1224289816780.html

    7) Stiglitz Says Ireland Has Bleak Prospect of Cutting Deficit, Saving Banks:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-11/stiglitz-says-ireland-has-bleak-prospect-of-cutting-deficit-saving-banks.html
    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/64449376/

    8) Nuriel Rubini: Euro zone will eventually be smaller

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/11/23/europe-economy-roubini-idUSN2314604020101123

    http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=share&ctype=group_channel&chid=3&cid=165914&shareToken=MzpjN2JmZjAxMy0xMjZjLTRkNGQtODcxMC0wMGM1ZDJiN2YxNmQ=

    Legend thanks


  • #183
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,475 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    I don't think there's any evidence supporting any of the other parties points either?

    The EU and IMF (ie. most of the developed world) are supporting the other parties stance.
    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    Exactly my point. They are not ignoring the very thing which should be at the very fore-front of everyone's mind this election. €200,000,000,000

    How will we pay it?
    When [if ever] will we pay it?
    Who should pay it? Us OR them?

    No country ever actually pays off their national debt, they can pay off some and redcue the total, and service the interest on it. Our national debt as a percentage of GDP was higher in the early 90's than it currently is and then came the Celtic Tiger. The economy can grow despite the level of debt, what we need to focus on now is making sure that growth is sustainable.


  • #184
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 22,785 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Euroland wrote: »
    Now there is broad agreement among leading Irish and foreign economists and financiers that Ireland has very high probability of sovereign default around 2013-2014. Sovereign default would bring far more serious consequences than the bank debt default.

    The only way to avoid it is to:

    1)Restructure or default on bank debt (in case of restructuring the haircuts should be significant, i.e. 70-95%)
    2)Extend the term for the austerity measures, from current ECB-imposed 3-4 years to 5-6 years
    3)Renegotiate interest terms to realistic levels (below 4.5%)
    4)Apply reasonable measures to eliminate wasteful public spending (public sector salary reductions and caps; caps on state pensions; significant reduction in social welfare payments and term caps on them, etc)
    5)Create jobs

    However, 3 main parties (FG, Labour, and FF) still don’t want to recognize the very high probability of sovereign default within 2-3 years and still avoid taking clear policies on bank debt restructuring/default and all other areas mentioned above.
    You posted that in the other thread,so I'll post my reply here too for completeness.
    The rest of them apart from FF are not ignoring it.
    It's just that they know there are two EU summits coming up to deal with the issue and as it will be they [most likely FG and Labour] that will be at those summits,it's best they be as vague as possible now.

    It gives SF an open goal of course to keep scoring points off them regarding the cost of the FF deal but then,SF themselves also have an open goal on their side as regards the sums when we can't borrow having told the imf to go home.


    Now I'm not here back in this thread to bash SF at this point,just hear me out on my thoughts here for a second.

    I was shocked that FF caved in to the EU in the way that they did and to the imf.
    They had no choice after the mess they got themselves into but to go to them of course but why they allowed to have themselves and by extension the rest of us walked over is the mystery.
    But it's not a mystery.

    When FF were negotiating in secret,they knew they needed to get money quick,that was their side.The EU were putting pressure on from the other wanting something in place to calm the markets.
    FF at that point [pre the green walkout announcement] were expecting 18 months more of government which would be easy with the greens on board,jackie healy rae and Lowry.

    So they didn't care,they expected things to start to come right and they knew that these summits would iron out something better.
    They totally underestimated the countries rancor at bringing in the imf and the fact that it was going to be the greens [too late] get out of jail card.

    If the FF policy was to cut the bondholders unilaterally,the Euro would go into freefall,that was the fear and of course the financial institutions in Germany and elsewhere involved would stop lending to other high debt countries or charge them the earth.Though not often mentioned,France is one of those.
    Thats the unwritten reason,I think for much of this mess.FF wanted to stay in power in the vain hope things would get better,that the cost of the deal would go down and that these bond holders would be significantly burned.
    18 months later when there would have to be an election,we'd all have forgotten...[no we wouldn't].

    So I guess the upshot of this is,SF can chew up all parties on the banking debt and I agree with them to an extent but disagree with it being as simple to do as what they say.
    But really what happens is out of their hands ultimately as this will be dealt with at those EU summits [and it better be good!]
    The EU now are waiting for us [again] to vote in a new government so they can fix this mess once and for all as Spain is too big an economy to fall as is Italy and those going would surely sink the Euro.

    Remember one basic fact,up untill the early 2000's we as a country were a dead cert for net inflows from the EU.They majorly financed two thirds of our infrastructure.
    We "invented" the BMW[border midlands and west] region to try and keep securing more money out of the EU than we pay in...by claiming the funds for a part of the country that had a worse gdp/income per head than the country as a whole had.

    When you remember that fact,you can see how ridiculous it is for the EU to expect us to pay for 100's of billions of banking debt,several multiples of what we ever got from the EU in the first place,money we got because ostensibly we were a poor country.
    We've reversed back to the borderline of that level wealth wise and certainly have gone way back in time in terms of unemployment etc.
    The EU cannot and in my opinion won't shackle this country in the way FF have organised because they know it's not workable.
    Everybody knows it isn't,it's just not being emphasised because theres negotiations to be done in a few months on the mess.

    Now that leads me back to the Economic treason accusation leveled at FF.It looks like it to me and it looks like the age old reason for it was they wanted to stay in power for longer in the hope the public anger could be alleviate.
    It backfired and it looks like they will get their just deserts!


  • #185
    c montgomery
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,137 ✭✭✭c montgomery


    I dont think Sinn Fein have a good economic policy, its completely illogical in fact. However even if they did i would not vote for them. Why???One reason!!!

    Martin Ferris stood outside waiting for the killers of Detective Gerry Mccabe to be released in order to give them a big hug. 2 bank robbing terrorists who killed a Detective and one of our TD is there with open arms to greet them.

    It was disgraceful and shows the party for what they are.
    Law and order is more important than the economy and Sinn Fein showed what it thinks of law and order with this shameful display.

    Link http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/local/ferris_condemned_for_meeting_mccabe_killers_1_2189822


  • #186
    Euroland
    Closed Accounts Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Euroland


    c montgomery wrote: »
    Law and order is more important than the economy

    With Ireland defaulting under FG/Labor/FF management on sovereign debt in 2.5 years time, the level of crime in Ireland can easily jump to the level of crime in South Africa, with thousands being killed yearly on the streets. So, to avoid this we have to vote for the party which has clear view on the bank debt.


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  • #187
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 22,785 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rofl...


  • #188
    Euroland
    Closed Accounts Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Euroland


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Rofl...

    Apparently you’re too young and have no clue about level of crime in Argentina and ex-USSR after financial and economic collapse? Otherwise you wouldn’t laugh :mad:


  • #189
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,475 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Euroland wrote: »
    With Ireland defaulting under FG/Labor/FF management on sovereign debt in 2.5 years time... So, to avoid this we have to vote for the party which has clear view on the bank debt.

    Sinn Fein would have us default this year. They want to use the €4.5bn NPRF to cover our €17bn budget deficit this year! Even if all the rest of SFs plans are correct there is no getting anyway from the fact that they would bankrupt us before this year is out. Anybody supporting SF in this election has their head in the sand and is using fears that we might default as an excuse to ignore the fact that SFs plan can not work.


  • #190
    Euroland
    Closed Accounts Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Euroland


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    Sinn Fein would have us default this year. They want to use the €4.5bn NPRF to cover our €17bn budget deficit this year! Even if all the rest of SFs plans are correct there is no getting anyway from the fact that they would bankrupt us before this year is out. Anybody supporting SF in this election has their head in the sand and is using fears that we might default as an excuse to ignore the fact that SFs plan can not work.

    Ireland has enough money not to default this year, even using the 22 BEUR from NPRF, of which 17.5 BEUR FF, FG, and Labor are planning to spend for rescuing the banks as a part of the “bailout” package.


  • #191
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    I read the stuff at the people's economy before, which is McWilliams, Lucey, Gurdgiev, Kinsella and Lyons.

    They are not saying we must default, they are saying it is unfair to saddle the taxpayer with private bank debt, and it makes paying it off harder. I agree, but that's not the same as saying we can't do it.

    Gurdgiev comes closest, but is contradicted on the same site by Lyons.

    Morgan Kelly in the linked article predicts an uprising by Mortgage holders, he doesn't say we cannot repay the debt (nor does he mention that mortgage rates are still really, really low: I started mine at something like 16%).

    Brian Lucey, at the linked article says : It is generally agreed that the terms and conditions of the bailout, in particular that part of it emanating from our European partners, are such as to make it incredibly difficult for the State to avoid significant and unnecessary cuts.

    Again, he does not say we cannot pay, only that difficult cuts will be needed.

    Roubini says that the Eurozone as a whole is not sustainable: that's quite right, and it's deliberate, and it will be dealt with, but not by Ireland on it's own.

    Stiglitz also said that one reason for the “bleak” prospect for Irish budgetary success is that the “authority that helped create the problem stayed in power.”

    Not for long now!


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  • #192
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,475 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Euroland wrote: »
    Ireland has enough money not to default this year, even using the 22 BEUR from NPRF, of which 17.5 BEUR FF, FG, and Labor are planning to spend for rescuing the banks as a part of the “bailout” package.

    There is only €4bn left in the NPRF so that is all of SFs plans down the toilet.


  • #193
    jimaneejeebus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭jimaneejeebus


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    The EU and IMF (ie. most of the developed world) are supporting the other parties stance.

    Well they would do.....seeing as how they have a vested interest in ensuring that their banks get paid at the expense of the Irish people?

    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    No country ever actually pays off their national debt,

    That's a sweeping statement if ever i heard one. Can you back that up with anything other than conjecture?
    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    they can pay off some and redcue the total, and service the interest on it.

    Can we?...look at all those links to prominent economic analysts who say we can't.... http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=70711037&postcount=181
    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    Our national debt as a percentage of GDP was higher in the early 90's than it currently is and then came the Celtic Tiger.

    No it's just as high now and rising
    http://www.ntma.ie/NationalDebt/debtGDP.php
    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    now...The economy can grow despite the level of debt, what we need to focus on now is making sure that growth is sustainable.

    Sounds like what a lot of the politicians have been saying at my door. Pro-active, looking forward, sustainable growth..never anything about the €200,000,000,000 ??!?!?
    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    Anybody supporting SF in this election has their head in the sand and is using fears that we might default as an excuse to ignore the fact that SFs plan can not work.

    If you feel you are being scare mongered by Sinn Fein....don't vote for them.
    But you are living in some sort of Orwellian fantasy if you truly believe that the IMF/EU really have our vested interests at heart.
    These people are not affiliated with SF and they all seem to agree that yes we're going to default..... http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=70711037&postcount=181
    But you believe what you want. It is the same placating and pacifying of the irish people that has gotten us where we are...and will continue to drive us into this quagmire even further.


  • #194
    KELTICKNIGHTT
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    KIERAN1 wrote: »
    Your posting to this thread, the same old tired argument over and over again, even though I addressed this point previously to you, do you not read. China has already offered to help buy up the debt of Greece and Portugal.You make blank empty statements like this all the time, do some research.

    sf ans its supporters live in dreamland with there ideas ,its shows here in this thread very clearly too all others,no policys that work,can answer questions ,all there do is give there republican guff as they always do,have told a few sf people clear off ,as i dont trust them and there party too help ireland the people,so will be a very clear NO vote too sf and anyone i know says the same,as most people dont trust them ,only people who know no better will vote sf thats quiet clear


  • #195
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    If you feel you are being scare mongered by Sinn Fein....don't vote for them.

    Okey dokey.


  • #196
    KELTICKNIGHTT
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    KIERAN1 wrote: »
    Your posting to this thread, the same old tired argument over and over again, even though I addressed this point previously to you, do you not read. China has already offered to help buy up the debt of Greece and Portugal.You make blank empty statements like this all the time, do some research.

    you have addressed nothing as sf hasnt ,its quiet cleat too all ,sf and supporters dont have a clue,most people are voting for other partys but not sf,only people who dont know better will vote sf, a vote for sf is a vote too wreck ireland future


  • #197
    KIERAN1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 246 ✭✭KIERAN1


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    There is absolutely no evidence out there to support the Sinn Fein stance. There may be some evidence to support individual parts of SFs stance (ie. defaulting on senior bondholder debt), but the whole thing is suiside.

    Who says that unilaterally defaulting on senior bondholder debt which would lose us the support of the ECB for our other banks, thus destroying our entire banking system, is a good idea?

    Who says rejecting the EU/IMF bailout money and trying to cover our €17bn budget deficit with our €4bn NPRF and then being forced to slash government spending by €13bn in one year is a good idea?

    Who says defaulting on bondholder debt and then hoping that we are able to borrow on the bond markets again next year at a low interest, despite the fact that Iceland could not after defaulting on bank debt, is a good idea?

    Who says reversing all budget cuts and scraping tax increases thereby increasing our budget deficit is a good idea?

    Note; Pearse Doherty is not an acceptable answer to the above questions.

    Pete, The ECB Originally lent this money to the Irish banks, not the Irish people (nothing to do with us) but the ECB have bullied the Irish Government (FF) into accepting the liability of the private debts that were incurred by the ECB and the Irish banks, but the irony of all this to me is, the very same organisation the ECB, has now given a substantial loan to the Irish government in 2010, with certain conditions attached, plus the infamous penalising interest rate of around 5.8% to 6%--so their asking us to pay the private loans *they've given to the Irish banks in the past* Plus the added bonus of this interest rate hike, were in normal sane rational society, the ECB should be happy the Irish people are even paying them at all.. The interest rate is clear slap in the face to me, and this country, and our elected officials in Government should be ashamed of themselves.

    Some sums of my own.

    Our budget deficit is 15billion approximately... 35 million in from taxes/ and 50 billion, going out out on social welfare, and public services and projects, and so on.. but we all know we have to reduce costs in this economy, and that program, is now been inforced in this economy.

    So that is a deficit of 15 bilion+ a year at the moment---we borrowed 90 billion at 5.8%, so that would be rough estimate of 108 billion over three years, been been handed over from the Irish state, to the ECB and the IMF.

    The reduced costs in the economy will reduce that deficit further over the three to four years down to between 6 and 9 billion, if everything goes as planned?

    So TODAY we have 15 billion Budget deficit

    108 billion has been borrowed in real terms interest added on that the Irish taxpayer is paying!!! DEFAULT ON BANKING DEBT... that would be 7+ maybe 8 to 9 years to run the real economy, as your deficit should be reducing with having reduce expenditure in the Irish economy> factored into this an ability to actively repair and restructure the banking system with a new face and new outlook for Ireland.

    Bondholders reside in all parts of the World, and all are well aware, you take many risks when you invest in any countries economy.Bondholders will invest in any economy not burdened by heavy debts, as long as they could see ahead a gain for them financially in the future !

    The Bond Market also has people dealing in many different currencies, than the Euro, like the Dollar, Pound and Yuan... Countries like the United States and China operate in these Type of currencies.. Look Pete we should care more about own our own self interest, and make diplomatic decisions for the welfare of all Irish Citizens, not German citizen and French Citizens...The Irish Banks and ECB (EUROPE) will ruin and cripple this country economically, so we
    need to think outside of the box on this, and get a better deal for this country from some other World power like China (t might help with Jobs having a closer relationship with them) or a country we have actual historical history with like the United States.


  • #198
    jimaneejeebus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭jimaneejeebus


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Okey dokey.

    When we look back at this thread I hope you'll be right for not voting SF.
    I hope our country doesn't default,
    And, above all, I hope we're 'riding on the pigs back'

    But something tells me we're making the same mistakes over and over.
    FF FG FF FG FF FG FF FG snoooze. Happy la la land. €200,000,000,000? Ahh it'll be grand...sure the next government can sort that one out


  • #199
    KELTICKNIGHTT
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    china is a comminist country,do you really think china will help ireland without major strings,get real,ireland can leave europe,outside the imf/eu deal,its vital too exports and imports,think here,next goverment will try too gewt a better deal but if you watch the news in last week,you see theres plans afoot too do something about the interest which helps all countrys,sf policys but ireland intoo middle agesa and with its views,ireland needs allies and friends in other countries specialy in europe not enemys whick we have very easy if sf where there,so rammble on ,sf have too sort out alot of things for people as a whole in ireland before they trust them,,only certain few always trust sf but the majority wont,even outside there policys that dont work,


  • #200
    Soldie
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭Soldie


    maccored wrote: »
    what i find strange is the amount of people who dont seem to have a balls notion of whats going on.

    What does that have to do with what I said?


  • #201
    KIERAN1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 246 ✭✭KIERAN1


    KELTICKNIGHTT wrote: »
    you have addressed nothing as sf hasnt ,its quiet cleat too all ,sf and supporters dont have a clue,most people are voting for other partys but not sf,only people who dont know better will vote sf, a vote for sf is a vote too wreck ireland future

    I think there the only party that has a clue and not lying to the people, you want someone to hold your hand, and guide you, and tell you all this will be ok, but anyone with any commonsense at all, is well aware we are going to default in a year or two. Don't expect Europe will keep bailing us out, there is bigger fish with bigger problems than us out there, but we still have to pay the banking debts still which is not good for this state, were we should be looking to fix the economy firstly, and also looking around for other options to help us out.


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  • #202
    Euroland
    Closed Accounts Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Euroland


    KELTICKNIGHTT wrote: »
    china is a comminist country,do you really think china will help ireland without major strings,get real,ireland can leave europe,outside the imf/eu deal,its vital too exports and imports,think here,next goverment will try too gewt a better deal but if you watch the news in last week,you see theres plans afoot too do something about the interest which helps all countrys,sf policys but ireland intoo middle agesa and with its views,ireland needs allies and friends in other countries specialy in europe not enemys whick we have very easy if sf where there,so rammble on ,sf have too sort out alot of things for people as a whole in ireland before they trust them,,only certain few always trust sf but the majority wont,even outside there policys that dont work,

    Wake up, nobody wants to leave the EU, we just want to eliminate bank debt and leave the Euro zone, which created all these problems.

    As regards to China, they are open-minded and their economy now is pretty much a market economy, they like making $.


  • #203
    KELTICKNIGHTT
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,781 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    KIERAN1 wrote: »
    I think there the only party that has a clue and not lying to the people, you want someone to hold your hand, and guide you, and tell you all this will be ok, but anyone with any commonsense at all, is well aware we are going to default in a year or two. Don't expect Europe will keep bailing us out, there is bigger fish with bigger problems than us out there, but we still have to pay the banking debts still which is not good for this state, were we should be looking to fix the economy firstly, and also looking around for other options to help us out.

    sf never has told the truth in its existence and never will specially with its leadership and its long standing supporters,all sf cares about is power ,people with common sense can see this only


  • #204
    KIERAN1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 246 ✭✭KIERAN1


    KELTICKNIGHTT wrote: »
    china is a comminist country,do you really think china will help ireland without major strings,get real,ireland can leave europe,outside the imf/eu deal,its vital too exports and imports,think here,next goverment will try too gewt a better deal but if you watch the news in last week,you see theres plans afoot too do something about the interest which helps all countrys,sf policys but ireland intoo middle agesa and with its views,ireland needs allies and friends in other countries specialy in europe not enemys whick we have very easy if sf where there,so rammble on ,sf have too sort out alot of things for people as a whole in ireland before they trust them,,only certain few always trust sf but the majority wont,even outside there policys that dont work,

    China has a socialist economy but is fast becoming a Capitalist country, the political structures are reforming in China in the last decade, plus there the second largest economic power in the World, in ten years, will replace United States as the only superpower. Europe has not been nice to us, so why should we sit on there knees, and thank them for the presents we got? You have odd outlook to me, friends treat you well.


  • #205
    jmayo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,227 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    Tipp Man wrote: »
    for such a small insignificant and extreme party how the hell do sinn fein get so many threads on boards??:confused:

    Notice how many pro sinn fein supporters have appeared of late.
    I would bet SF have access to more funds than any other party in this country and they have it appears even more dedicated followers/believers/diehards than even ff.
    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    Hi Permabear

    Do you think paying Investors your money is Logical when our country is going to be crippled for the next 20+ years because of it?

    Many analysts argue that we would have a stronger potential for recovery if we do default.
    If you were an investor, Would you rather invest in a country with €60,000,000,000 in debt or €200,000,000,000?
    Many countries have done it in the past and have survived.
    We should at least entertain the notion before we turn our noses up at it. This should be the focal point of the election-the whopping 400% mortgage we are signing up to that all parties seem to gloss over when they come to your door??

    So here is scenario.
    You owe 100,000 on a loan.
    Yoy refuse to pay it, basically tell the lender to f off.
    You then need to borrow 20,000 to cover your expenditure next year.
    Do you think any lender will want to lend to you at normal interest rates seen as you told your last lender to f off.

    Please tell me how that works ?
    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    We will need to go to the markets at some stage in our lives. I would rather go to the markets with a relatively small debt to GDP than the whopping 400% mortgage which we'll probably never pay off anyway.

    As far as I see it. We have two options.
    We sign ourselves up to a 400% mortgage-struggle in the doldrums for the next 10 years. When the country has been truly crippled we then default- go to the markets and get charged an extortionate interest rate. Maybe another 5 years down the line we *might* be ok?

    Or we default now. Take the extortionate interest rates that the markets will command and maybe after 5 years we *might* be ok?

    Option A will drag us down for 15 years
    Option B will drag us down for 5
    All hypothetical I know-
    But I prefer option B?

    With both of those options we are indeed screwed.

    Basically we are screwed unless we manage to convince some of the ones we owe money to, to forego some of that money.
    At the same time WE need to decrease our ongoing need to borrow so much.

    One scenario that can have a huge bearing on us, is what happens to some big Euro members like Italy and Spain.
    If either of these, with their own problems, comes a cropper then it would be hard for EU/ECB to force anything on us.
    niallers1 wrote: »
    ..
    And before you accuse me I'm not a Sinn Fein supporter but I do agree with separating sovereign debt from bank debt as put forward by Dave McWilliams/Sinn Fein

    That is probably the only exact point that SF and McWilliams agree on, but I have noticed shinners claiming McWilliams is backing their plan, meaning their entire cock a mamie idea of not reducing our deficit and keeping spending as is.
    Dubol wrote: »
    I was going to vote for FG but I have read so much bitterness from another forum which is owned by a FG journalist and his group of friends that I have decided against it. I will be voting for LP/SF/indo. I never thought I would say this but I would rather vote for FF than FG. I like Enda Kenny but the insults and constant mud slinging of those FG party members have freightened me off.

    BTW who is the FG journalist ?

    So you have no problem voting for a party that has representatives who refuses to condemn the cold blooded killing of a polcie office and even collects the same police killers from jail ?

    So let me get this straight, you would rather vote for the party that wrecked the country's economy, allowed the entire indigenous banking sector go bust racking up the world biggest corporate losses over the last few years, before dumping the loss on us taxpayers than now vote for FG ?

    Wow they must really have insulted you ? :rolleyes:

    I could say somehting but forum rules dictate I must refrain from doing so. :rolleyes:

    I am not allowed discuss …



  • #206
    jimaneejeebus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭jimaneejeebus


    jmayo wrote: »
    Notice how many pro sinn fein supporters have appeared of late.

    Hi jmayo
    It's not unreasonable to think that, as more people support something, then more supporters will 'appear'?

    Most of what you asked me can be answered here.
    http://thepeopleseconomy.com/roadmap-to-recovery/


  • #207
    Pal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭Pal


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.


    Well said Sir.
    These people are really scary.


  • #208
    puffdragon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 354 ✭✭puffdragon


    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    Hi jmayo
    It's not unreasonable to think that, as more people support something, then more supporters will 'appear'?

    Most of what you asked me can be answered here.
    http://thepeopleseconomy.com/roadmap-to-recovery/

    Thank you for posting that link, I agree with the general thrust of this but my worry is that if we dont get these facts across to the general public soon then another government which favours our total emersment in the euro economy will simply cow down again and same old same old !!


  • #209
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,475 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    Hi jmayo
    It's not unreasonable to think that, as more people support something, then more supporters will 'appear'?

    Most of what you asked me can be answered here.
    http://thepeopleseconomy.com/roadmap-to-recovery/

    For your link;
    Without the bank debt we could go back into the markets and get ourselves financed without too much difficulty. Irish bond yields would fall rapidly. Think about Belgium, a country with a debt/GDP ratio of 123pc. It recently borrowed at a rate of 1.9pc, while we languish at 9pc. If we got rid of the banking legacy, with a debt/GDP ratio of 74pc, who says interest rates wouldn’t fall?

    Well, the fact that Iceland defaulted on banking debt and yet couldnt borrow on the bond markets and needed the IMF to bail them out is a pretty good indication that interest rates wouldn’t fall.

    Anyway, that article does not reflect Sinn Feins proposals. It is irrelevant because it does not take into account SFs other economic policy. SF want to reject the IMF bailout money. That would leave us with a €17bn hole in our budget which SF want to fill with our €4bn NPRF. Does anyone see a problem there?

    The default idea also ignores the fact that the ECB are propping up our banks and a default would see them cut their funding, resulting in the collapse of the entire Irish banking system. Everybody loses their deposits, employers can pay wages and business can access working capital so the economy is well and truly f*cked.


  • #210
    jimaneejeebus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭jimaneejeebus


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    For your link;




    Whilst Sinn Fein may not ideal. They are closer to his ideas than anyone else. As in this quote

    "The solution to our problem — a problem of too much debt — is obviously less debt, not more debt. We need to face up to that and do something about it.
    This reinvention of Ireland begins and ends with economics. The Government’s message that there is no economic alternative to austerity, governed by the IMF and EU without any proper debt renegotiation is not true. We are pursuing the worst economic policy possible and the rest of the world knows it."




    or this quote


    "

    The core element of a recovery in Ireland is cutting the link between the banks and the people. The EU/IMF deal is trying to solder the people to the banks with more debt. This is causing panic. The financial markets signalled this week that the likelihood of sovereign default in Ireland is now greater than ever. Here at home, we are experiencing a slow run on the Irish banks as people and companies take their deposits out.
    Current policy is failing as evidenced by the sharp rise in unemployment again last month. The Government’s plan, with the IMF and the EU, is making the country yet more fragile."


    or this quote


    "Before we discuss economics, let’s introduce the word morality because a policy has to be morally right for it to work. Current policy is amoral. The bank debts are not ours; they are the debts of the banks, which were incurred when the banks were private. They are not our debts to pay."




    or this quote


    "

    But these debts have nothing to do with the Irish people. The last time I checked there was a harp on my passport not the logo of Anglo.
    From an economic perspective, everyone knows that the solution to too much debt is never more debt, it is always less debt. So the first change must be to reduce the debt levels of the State so that it does not default. How do you do this? You cut the banks loose.
    The big lie you have been told is that if we preside over a default on Irish bank debt the financial markets will punish us by taking money out of the country."


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  • #211
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,475 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    jimaneejeebus wrote: »
    Whilst Sinn Fein may not ideal. They are closer to his ideas than anyone else. As in this quote

    "not ideal", that must be a Sinn Fein way of saying; "I know the figures dont add up but if we shout this enough times we will fool some people into voting for us. It doesnt matter anyway, we wont be in government to implement any of it so we can say what we want and wont be called on any of it". Its a bit like Gerrys denials of being on the Army Council of the IRA.

    Anyway, who cares if SFs default policy is closest to McWs ideas? The point I was making is that his idea to default are irrelevant to this because they do not take into account SFs other plans, such as rejecting the EU/IMF bailout.

    Please explain how SF can plug a €17bn hole in our budget with a €4bn NPRF as this is the first problem with SFs plan and without being able to overcome this first hurdle, all of their other policies can not happen.


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