Logically Sinn Fein are right

jimaneejeebus

Ok let me start by saying

I don't really care for politics at all. For me, politics attempts to answer the questions-How much will I get? How much will they lose? How much more will I get if they lose?
This might strike you as being quite a cynical viewpoint! but more and more I find this viewpoint being vindicated everyday. The public/private rift. The constant maneuvering and re-drawing of battle-lines by the many varied interest groups-the Unions-the lobbyists-right down to the individual on Joe Duffy all asking the same question. How much will I get?



Of all the parties, Sinn Fein seem to be the only ones that are answering these questions with any bit of honesty. Be it from a logical, moral, philosophical, ideological, hypothetical, or even spiritual viewpoint, Sinn Fein are right about one thing....their answer to the question "How Much will they lose?"
'They' will lose greatly....For 'they' are the bankers.....They can afford to lose. In fact capitalism says they should lose. If we pay these people €200,000,000,000 these people will never learn that when you invest, your investment can go up as well as down. The Irish people are all too aware that their investments can go up as well as down. But it seems like basic capitalism does not apply to the elite?


Words will fail us when our children ask us in years to come "Why in 2011 didn't Fine Gael have the balls to do what's right? Why did they continue to pay billions of our nations money to foreign Investors when we couldn't even afford to pay for ourselves. Why is our country so f***ed?"

ei.sdraob

banking welfare is a form of socialism for you

taste of own medicine I say

meglome

If I understand correctly they are going to default, then the magic money fairy is going to come and pay our bills somehow. Because let's face it, in a default scenario no else is going to give us money so it'll have to be the magic money fairy.

Pete_Cavan

jimaneejeebus wrote: »

'They' will lose greatly....For 'they' are the bankers.....They can afford to lose. In fact capitalism says they should lose.

If you are suggesting that we should follow a capitalist system then logically SF are wrong because their core believes are socialist, not capitalist.

Permabear

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xE

Logically their policies probably are right but I can't see people have the dutch courage to back them, which may lead to the pulling of the plug. I guess its worth a gamble rather than staight away giving into the interests of the Europeans who don't really give a crap about the country.

Tipp Man

for such a small insignificant and extreme party how the hell do sinn fein get so many threads on boards??

LordSutch

Oh Lord, not another Sinn Fein thread ...........

You guys are really trying hard :cool:

analucija

What exactly will bankers lose? They are well connected, well advised and will quickly find another job. Bondholders will maybe have couple of red numbers on their balance sheets. And regular people will be screwed because we would be forced into huge adjustment in one year with little chance of getting any money from the financial markets in the next couple of years. And little chance of getting any jobs.

There is no logic in what SF are proposing but we don't need to worry because they will be nowhere near any government and they know that.

jimaneejeebus

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

If you are suggesting that we should follow a capitalist system then logically SF are wrong because their core believes are socialist, not capitalist.

No I was suggesting that-we live in a capitalist system and the investments that were made, were made under a capitalist system where-last time I checked- an investment is a risk that can go up or down. Logically, morally whatever way you want to view it-under this system the Investors should lose NOT the Irish people?

Whatever your views or Sinn Feins views are on socialism vs capitalism are irrelevent. Socialism for the rich whilst everyone else lives in a capitalist world is just plain wrong. Cake anyone?

jimaneejeebus

meglome wrote: »

If I understand correctly they are going to default, then the magic money fairy is going to come and pay our bills somehow. Because let's face it, in a default scenario no else is going to give us money so it'll have to be the magic money fairy.

Not true. Hint..look at Iceland?
Do you think someone would be more willing to invest in a country with a €200,000,000,000 debt or a €60,000,000,000 debt?

nialldabass

We ARE going to default, its a question of when, so please stop all the nonsense and lets figure out what happens then. Most people are so frieghtened by the idea, but please stop deluding yourself that we are going to pay our way out of this, its impossible. It sounds like the same scaremongering before Liesborn 2, no doubt from the same people, and I didn't believe you then and I don't now. Please grow a pair and stand up for yourselves, there is no magic wand, still after 800 hundred years of being told what to do, I shouldn't expect you to be able to run your own country. Still at least we get a say in how Europes run:rolleyes:

Permabear

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jimaneejeebus

Permabear wrote: »

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Hi Permabear

Do you think paying Investors your money is Logical when our country is going to be crippled for the next 20+ years because of it?


Many analysts argue that we would have a stronger potential for recovery if we do default.
If you were an investor, Would you rather invest in a country with €60,000,000,000 in debt or €200,000,000,000?
Many countries have done it in the past and have survived.
We should at least entertain the notion before we turn our noses up at it. This should be the focal point of the election-the whopping 400% mortgage we are signing up to that all parties seem to gloss over when they come to your door??

analucija

jimaneejeebus wrote: »

Not true. Hint..look at Iceland?

I bet it was fun paying mortgages when central bank interest rate was at 18%. Besides Iceland got a loan from IMF, SF want to raise money on international markets.

jimaneejeebus

Permabear wrote: »

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Sorry yes...the law which we now realize was totally the wrong thing to do???

effemall

i dont know much about economics but this is my take on it. we have to borrow 200 billion or so to fund banks and country at something like 5-6%. if we reneged on our bank debts we would then have to borrow say about 50 billion. but then our loans wouldnt be as high risk as before because the country would be more stable and so would only warrant a 1-2% rate. thats not as good a return for the lenders. maybe this is some of the reason why theyre telling us we cant default

Lockstep

I find it hard to follow myself.

I can understand extreme right wingers who want to default as they know we lack the resources to fund ourselves an the markets won't lend to us except at a punitive rate (seeing as we've shown we can't be trusted to repay). This will lead to large scale budget cuts until we're more solvent.

Seeing as Sinn Féin want to reverse cuts and fund infrastructure projects, I'm baffled as to where they plan on funding this from. Especially as noone will want to lend to us except at incredibly high interest rates.

analucija

effemall wrote: »

i dont know much about economics but this is my take on it. we have to borrow 200 billion or so to fund banks and country at something like 5-6%. if we reneged on our bank debts we would then have to borrow say about 50 billion. but then our loans wouldnt be as high risk as before because the country would be more stable and so would only warrant a 1-2% rate. thats not as good a return for the lenders. maybe this is some of the reason why theyre telling us we cant default

If I'm not mistaken is the "overdraft" provided by ECB to Irish banks charged at 1% which is basic ECB rate. I think some of the banks are now trying to sell of their loan books to pay off ECB. I'm no expert on those issues but it would be a lot easier to negotiate on "burning" the bondholders if our banks wouldn't need ECB to keep them alive.

Permabear

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creaghadoos

i am not a shinner by any stretch of the imagination, and i am not mad into politics, but, sinn fein are the only party who are looking to rule the country from the ground up, where the wee man is as important as the big wig.

i cannot see any of the other parties getting us out of this mess, but SF are willing to be bold and stand their ground

in the debate the other night, adams was the only one who spoke of indigenous small business being central to job creation.

KELTICKNIGHTT

Tipp Man wrote: »

for such a small insignificant and extreme party how the hell do sinn fein get so many threads on boards??

sf supporters,just too get sf noticed
same on each thread doe whats being said,

Permabear

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danbohan

Permabear wrote: »

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Then, let's entertain the notion. What will default actually entail for the Irish people?

discussing sinn fein defaulting is irrelevant , they are not going to be in any sort of power or position to do so ,they know that very well hence we get ...........

but we will default in all likelihood and what will a fine gael led default mean for Irish people?

nialldabass

analucija wrote: »

I bet it was fun paying mortgages when central bank interest rate was at 18%. Besides Iceland got a loan from IMF, SF want to raise money on international markets.

Thats true, but if the value of your house went down the mortgage follows, so there is little negative equity, and we could have the same rules here.Lets face it the banks never had the money, they just whisked it out of thin air and we now have 200,000 people paying mortgages on property not worth what they paid. You need to study what Iceland did, the bond markets are ready to start lending to them again. I fear we will not be so lucky

LordSutch

KELTICKNIGHTT wrote: »

sf supporters,just too get sf noticed
same on each thread doe whats being said,

The SF Youth are pumping out new threads day after day. The SF propaganda machine now in full swing.

KELTICKNIGHTT

creaghadoos wrote: »

i am not a shinner by any stretch of the imagination, and i am not mad into politics, but, sinn fein are the only party who are looking to rule the country from the ground up, where the wee man is as important as the big wig.

i cannot see any of the other parties getting us out of this mess, but SF are willing to be bold and stand their ground

in the debate the other night, adams was the only one who spoke of indigenous small business being central to job creation.

cripple the country in a hugh recession where no help from any where country or market if you go with sf solutions which dont work,please
why another thread about a party that dont have there figures right

KELTICKNIGHTT

LordSutch wrote: »

The SF Youth are pumping out new threads day after day. The SF propaganda machine now in full swing.

please,i need a good laugh,i got it now
a party with no real policys that have no figures that work
thank god sf will never in a life time see any goverment specialy when there leader doesnt know the vat rate in ireland,that was real funny
like a comedy show

jimaneejeebus

Lockstep wrote: »

I find it hard to follow myself.

I can understand extreme right wingers who want to default as they know we lack the resources to fund ourselves an the markets won't lend to us except at a punitive rate (seeing as we've shown we can't be trusted to repay). This will lead to large scale budget cuts until we're more solvent.

Seeing as Sinn Féin want to reverse cuts and fund infrastructure projects, I'm baffled as to where they plan on funding this from. Especially as noone will want to lend to us except at incredibly high interest rates.

We will need to go to the markets at some stage in our lives. I would rather go to the markets with a relatively small debt to GDP than the whopping 400% mortgage which we'll probably never pay off anyway.

As far as I see it. We have two options.
We sign ourselves up to a 400% mortgage-struggle in the doldrums for the next 10 years. When the country has been truly crippled we then default- go to the markets and get charged an extortionate interest rate. Maybe another 5 years down the line we *might* be ok?

Or we default now. Take the extortionate interest rates that the markets will command and maybe after 5 years we *might* be ok?

Option A will drag us down for 15 years
Option B will drag us down for 5
All hypothetical I know-
But I prefer option B?

meglome

jimaneejeebus wrote: »

Not true. Hint..look at Iceland?
Do you think someone would be more willing to invest in a country with a €200,000,000,000 debt or a €60,000,000,000 debt?

We are running at a large deficit, 15 to 20 billion on day to day spending. If we default no one is going to give us this money. Which means that spending will need to cut by that much immediately which will likely put us in a hole that would be incredibly difficult to get out of. I'm no economist but the one thing that is very obvious to me is defaulting is not the easy option.

jimaneejeebus

Permabear wrote: »

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However disingenuis you deem Sinn Feinn to be. [Although I've yet to see a party that have been 'un-disingenuis' around election time!] They are still the only party who are at least entertaining option B below.....

Option A
We sign ourselves up to a 400% mortgage-struggle in the doldrums for the next 10 years. When the country has been truly crippled we then default- go to the markets and get charged an extortionate interest rate. Maybe another 5 years down the line we *might* be ok?

Option B
Or we default now. Take the extortionate interest rates that the markets will command and maybe after 5 years we *might* be ok?

Option A will drag us down for 15 years
Option B will drag us down for 5
All hypothetical I know-
But I prefer option B?

gbee

I'm ONE vote, I giving one vote only to my local SF Candidate.

I'm not giving anyone else a vote.

Permabear

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loldog

Permabear wrote: »

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You think debt slavery is logical? You think paying billions per year just on interest is logical? What we need to happen is to break up the cartel of international usury and replace our currency systems with something sane and not so evil.

.

creaghadoos

danbohan wrote: »

discussing sinn fein defaulting is irrelevant , they are not going to be in any sort of power or position to do so ,they know that very well hence we get ...........


SF are not going to be in power. but when the next government make a bigger balls of it, SF are going to say you've tried everyone else, and in 5 years time they will be the strong opposition party, if the others are'nt careful.


PLEASE REMEMBER THAT ABOUT 25 YEARS AGO SINN FEIN HAD VERY FEW COUNCILLORS IN THE NORTH, AND THEY ARE NOW ONE OF THE RULING PARTIES

Permabear

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KELTICKNIGHTT

creaghadoos wrote: »

danbohan wrote: »

discussing sinn fein defaulting is irrelevant , they are not going to be in any sort of power or position to do so ,they know that very well hence we get ...........


SF are not going to be in power. but when the next government make a bigger balls of it, SF are going to say you've tried everyone else, and in 5 years time they will be the strong opposition party, if the others are'nt careful.


PLEASE REMEMBER THAT ABOUT 25 YEARS AGO SINN FEIN HAD VERY FEW COUNCILLORS IN THE NORTH, AND THEY ARE NOW ONE OF THE RULING PARTIES

what has this got too do with the real world,when sf get some people who know how too put real policys together,people might listen but saying republician stuff doesnt cut it

meglome

jimaneejeebus wrote: »

However disingenuis you deem Sinn Feinn to be. [Although I've yet to see a party that have been 'un-disingenuis' around election time!] They are still the only party who are at least entertaining option B below.....

Option A
We sign ourselves up to a 400% mortgage-struggle in the doldrums for the next 10 years. When the country has been truly crippled we then default- go to the markets and get charged an extortionate interest rate. Maybe another 5 years down the line we *might* be ok?

Option B
Or we default now. Take the extortionate interest rates that the markets will command and maybe after 5 years we *might* be ok?

Option A will drag us down for 15 years
Option B will drag us down for 5
All hypothetical I know-
But I prefer option B?

All so simple, we default and those people who lost their money will just give us more. The likely outcome of this is we have to slash 15 to 20 billion from spending. Taking that much money from the economy will flush us down the toilet. While in the toilet no one will give us any money to invest in anything unless it's at ridiculously high rates.

jimaneejeebus

Permabear wrote: »

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I think that's a fair point. I'm not one of those who reckon it will be a bed of roses- I'm just saying Hard-Right or Hard-Left.....Sinn Fein are about the closest we're going to get.

meglome

jimaneejeebus wrote: »

I think that's a fair point. I'm not one of those who reckon it will be a bed of roses- I'm just saying Hard-Right or Hard-Left.....Sinn Fein are about the closest we're going to get.

The point here is the very people Sinn Fein claim to want to protect are the very ones who will in reality be hit the worst.

jimaneejeebus

meglome wrote: »

All so simple, we default and those people who lost their money will just give us more.

Happens all the time. Germany, Ukraine, Argentina, Pakistan, Russia and Iceland to name a few.

jimaneejeebus

meglome wrote: »

The point here is the very people Sinn Fein claim to want to protect are the very ones who will in reality be hit the worst.

Whether Sinn Fein realise this or not is not the point.
The question should be-Will 20 years of a 400% Mortgage followed by the inevitable default be any better for those people?

Doublin

Centre-Right to Centre-Left: Take the IMF/EU bailout. Kick the can down the road as far as possible. Let the debt accumulate. Pretend everything will be ok. Pray for the economy. Hope that someone else will be in power when it all blows up. The result is a possible catastrophic result down the line, after we've accumulated well over an additional €100 billion in debt.

This is, to me, the worst option for Ireland, now and for the future, therefore I'll be voting Sinn Fein & Independents. Too much fuddling along the past few years hoping everything will work itself out is what got us here. FG & Labour, I believe, will not change things.

jimaneejeebus

I dunno Permabear- I think you could be guilty of compartmentalizing the right and the left as if they didn't want the same thing...[default]? I think you go too far in drawing a distinction between the two. As in this

Permabear wrote: »

The right wants the country to face up to reality, default, and then deal with rebuilding our country.

I think a lot of the left want this also no?

Permabear wrote: »

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Is it really tho?

Permabear wrote: »

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I'm pretty sure a lot of people on the right would deem what the banks and our government have done as being deeply and wholly immoral. I don't think they'd like to be put in the box of unsympathetic bastards so readily?

Permabear wrote: »

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Considering that the 'wee man' in this instance is the whole population of Ireland [which includes those on the right AFAIK] I don't think many on the right would disagree here either?

Permabear wrote: »

They represent default as if it's a pain-free get-out-of-jail card. It's not.

I think you underestimate the intelligence of a lot of people. I don't think anyone..even Sinn Fein are kidding themselves that this is going to be easy.

kincsem

I said on another thread Sinn Fein have magic beans, and when the money tree grows everything will be sorted.

kincsem

I hope they got the Euro version of the money tree.

Permabear

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phantom_lord

Permabear wrote: »

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But the thing is people really really do and seemingly when engaged on it they either can't grasp the current situation or SF's level of ineptitude. Really says a lot about the type of person that votes SF in the first place.

LordSutch

And yet another Sinn Fein thread :cool:

Maybe I should start a thread about the texture of Gerry Adams greying beard?

But seriously, conidering the deminutive size of Sinn Fein in the Republic, one does wonder at the sheer volume of Sinn Fein threads being churned out on a weekly basis. This constant drip drip feed of SF threads is deliberately designed to keep Sinn Fein in the top pages of Boards.ie, and they are succeeding > Is it time there was be a cap on how many threads there are with a given Political Party's name in the title?

Noreen1

I'm not a Sinn Fein supporter, though I did vote for Pearse Doherty in the local elections, because the candidates in this constituency were woeful!

I haven't decided who I will vote for in the upcoming election.

Like many others, I regard the Bank Bailout as beyond contempt.

For this reason, I agree with Sinn Fein that the Bank guarantee should never have been put in place, except as a very temporary emergency measure.

Both FF and FG supported the continuation of the guarantee. Enda Kenny, on the night before we received the "final" 34 Billion bill for Anglo decided to support FF in writing a blank cheque. I haven't forgiven him for that!

Labour chat about renotiating the Bailout. The truth is, they are unlikely to lead the Government. If they form a coalition, they will be junior partners, with limited input to policy.

On the subject of renegotiation - it's strange that all the major parties (except FF) are suddenly anxious to renegotiate, after SF pulled the default card out of the bag. Hmmm....

Logically, SF are right - Irish citizens should not have to be impoverished to keep the megawealthy in the style to which they have been accustomed.
The trouble is, like all the other parties, their policies are just not believable.

I'm in favour of a structured default, because I believe it's the only option left, and that we will ultimately default anyway.

Now why can't I find a party who share those beliefs? God knows, enough economists are advocating it!!

jimaneejeebus

@phantom Lord

Because burning investors who took a risk that didn't pay off is the right thing to do.
Sinn Fein don't have a monopoly on this notion. If Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Labour et al. were to come around to this way of thinking- I would vote for them.
Call me crazy or stupid if you will. I don't care. Logically, Sinn Fein are right.