Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 10 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Overcast and rather foggy with periods of rain, becoming heavy at times this morning in the south and southwest. Winds SSW 15-30 mph, veering later to westerly. Becoming very foggy in some northern counties this afternoon with a steady rain across Ulster later today, drying out gradually elsewhere. Highs will range from 6 C in the north, to 10 C near the south coast.

TONIGHT ... Some persistent fog in the north, clearing across the south, rather cold with a slight frost, possibly followed by a light freezing drizzle or sleet. Lows near -2 C.

TUESDAY ... Some clearing mid-day, light winds during the morning and mid-day, turning milder again, with an interval of heavy rain arriving late in the day on strong SW winds (30-50 mph by evening), highs 10-12 C by late afternoon or evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers, some hazy brighter intervals later, winds WSW 15-30 mph, very mild with lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, showers at times. Lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming windy with periods of rain developing, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy or possibly very windy (SW 40-60 mph near west and south coast), showers, mild, highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... The models are little help at the moment with constant variations and no real consistency run to run. I would favour a colder solution starting around Sunday 16th but arctic cold may require about three or four days beyond this transition point to establish itself again. Would suggest 19-20 January as a possible stormy period and colder weather to follow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Sunday 9th was sunny and crisp, high of 4 C, now quite cold, -4 C, snow forecast for Wednesday here.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Severe snowstorm has eased across inland B.C. and Alberta, remnants have moved southeast into Montana, frigid air follows from the Yukon. Meanwhile, snow has developed across the central states into parts of the southeast, Atlanta GA has 10 cms already, and a storm is organizing in the Florida panhandle section of the Gulf coast, heading for a Tuesday snowstorm in the northeast states.

Wednesday, 12 January, 2011
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TODAY ... A foggy or misty start with bursts of heavy and possibly thundery rain at times across the southwest, just light rain or drizzle elsewhere. Very mild, but temperatures likely to remain steady at 10-12 C for most ... brighter intervals developing especially west-central counties, winds SW 20-30 mph ... rain moving into southeast mid-day, amounts generally 10-20 mms across the south coast counties, and later about 5-10 mms in Donegal and nearby areas of north from late afternoon showers there. Generally about 3-7 mms across central counties from west to east.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, mild, lows 5-7 C, just a slight amount of rain in most places from drizzle, 1-2 mms on average.

THURSDAY ... Brighter intervals becoming more frequent, sunny breaks could develop despite a lot of cloud, remaining quite mild with SW winds 20-30 mph and highs around 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain developing, potential for 30-40 mms of rain into early Saturday, becoming windy by evening as southerly gales develop (30-50 mph), lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Very windy (SW 35-55 mph) with rain becoming showery, clearing from west by afternoon, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showery, turning a bit cooler with lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures to start next week, possible rain-sleet-snow bands by about Tuesday, followed by breezy and cooler weather, some risk of a rapid change to much colder any time after the 21st or so. I have updated my winter long-range forecast in the winter 2010-11 thread in this forum, basically calling for a gradual colder trend late January and possible returns to snow and severe cold at times in early February.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Snowing here for the second time this winter (of any consequence), after a cloudy dry Tuesday with a high of -1 C, currently it is -2 C, moderate snow, 3 cms on ground, 15 cms expected by morning, mixing with rain then.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER is generally very cold, beside our coastal snow storm there is a heavy snow falling in NYC at this hour (0200 Eastern) and about to start in Boston, estimating 30-35 cms for that region. The storm has pretty much skipped past Washington DC and gave Philadelphia about 5 to 10 cms. It is linked to a secondary low over the Great Lakes giving scattered 5-10 cm falls there. Extremely cold air is developing over the Yukon and moving south to reinforce the cold spell.

UPDATE _ Thursday, 11:15 p.m.
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Some heavy showers are moving through Connacht overnight, and should sweep through Ulster after midnight. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms are likely in about a two-hour period. Not much else has changed in the short-term outlook, the trend of the models for next week is generally towards cooler high pressure that should return daytime temperatures to the range 5-8 C and the overnight lows to slightly frosty values at least outside the larger cities which might see lows near the freezing point. Confidence on these solutions beyond mid-week remains low, as we wait to see if the models have handled the extreme blocking in the Bering Strait region correctly over the five to ten day period. Any significant error with that, and the whole hemispheric pattern could be written off for something considerably different.

UPDATE _ Friday, 14 January, 1800h
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ALERT for strong winds and heavy rain tonight with wind gusts to 70 mph possible in coastal and high-elevation exposed locations, 55-60 mph more generally, and also 20-40 mms of rain. Winds will be from the SSW and should peak at around 0300h as this frontal wave rushes northeast. Winds will ease slightly towards morning and remain fairly strong all day Saturday, with additional rainfalls of 10-20 mms. Expect some minor wind damage in a few locations, and some flooding which will be dangerous in part because it would set in during darkness in the late overnight hours (towards Saturday morning that is).

On a much less urgent note, the 12z model runs have some maps about 10-12 days from now that look suspiciously like the "Greenland express" of 17-18 December ... stay tuned, we may be going back from this premature spring to winter in the next two weeks. Rain and 11 C where I am, so no relief there.

Sunday, 16 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Clouds and showers finally parting in most regions to allow some brighter intervals, winds also easing to WSW 20-30 mph, temperatures falling gradually to the 7-9 C level for afternoon hours, then further by evening ... a secondary area of showers with blustery winds may reach the northwest by this evening.

TONIGHT ... Showers with blustery WSW winds for a while across much of the north, gradual clearing further south, winds easing there more readily but eventually falling off somewhat in the north too, lows will range from 2-4 C in the north, to -3 C inland south, although 2-4 C around the south coast and most of the east coast.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks north, a few residual showers, chilly ... sunny with cloudy periods further south, cool, highs in the range of 5 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... A sharp frost in many areas to start, some sunshine at least, with more risk of cloud or drizzle near the south coast in a slight east wind, lows near -4 C inland to +1 C coastal regions, and highs in the range of 3 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continuing dry and rather cold with a sharp morning frost and some sunshine during the day, light or calm winds, temperature range -4 to about +4 C on average.

OUTLOOK ... Models have somewhat lost their interest in large-scale change although there are still hints of a colder spell around the end of the week into the weekend, but the over-riding theme at the moment is the persistence near Ireland of the high pressure for many days to come. Let's hope we get a trend towards something more interesting than a week of dead calm.

Tuesday, 18 January, 2011
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The interesting part of the forecast period is probably from this weekend onward. The models have begun to drift towards a colder solution now with the high set to dominate this week but then pushing away to the west faster than was being indicated yesterday. One of the leading models has quite cold air making inroads into the U.K. and very close to Ireland by the weekend. The ECM is also trending colder but not as quickly. But otherwise the forecast especially now to Friday has not changed.

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and chilly especially in the shade, but the lack of wind may make it pleasant enough mid-day to be outside. There could be a few scattered hail or snow pellet showers over Clare and Galway, parts of Mayo and Donegal. These will be rather weak and would not last very long. Otherwise, it should be a sunny day with highs 5-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear and quite cold with lows around -4 C inland, -1 C around most of the coastal areas and inner city locations. Light winds or calm, some fog patches and isolated icy roads especially lower lying inland areas near open water.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... The cool, calm and mainly clear weather looks set to continue for most, with similar temperatures each day, lows averaging about -4 C and highs near +4 C or a bit higher in a few southern locations. One or two isolated hail showers could redevelop at times near the Connacht and Donegal coasts.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The chances still seem high for this spell of calm, dry weather to continue with perhaps more cloud invading the northwest and south from marine layers, but there is some chance of a forecast change to colder weather if trends now underway accelerate. Anyone travelling to Europe or the southeast part of England might expect to run into colder weather with snow.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Chances of some significant cold and possible snow are balanced with chances of continued bland, near seasonable conditions. We await more clarity on that but can pretty much rule out very mild or wet, windy conditions in the next week to ten days.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Monday 17th was cloudy with brief sunny intervals and a bit cooler than the very mild weekend, highs near 8 C in a moderate westerly breeze ... seems that our weather is following similar trends.

ACROSS NORTH AMERICA the eastern third are awaiting the arrival of a weak disorganized system that contains a bit of sleet, freezing rain and snow, but not a major storm. A stronger east coast storm looks likely on Friday when a weak system now passing east of my location gathers more strength and heads to the West Virginia mountains then on to Long Island and New England where it could bring a big snowfall at the end of the week. In the meantime, bitterly cold air is locked into the northern plains and Canadian prairies from a source region in the Yukon and NWT. Rather mild in Alaska with a very deep low south of the Aleutians, pressure at one point earlier was 936 mbs. :eek: Luckily for MTC, that is not heading east but stalling and slowly filling up.

Thursday, 20 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Very cold for most of the day, watch for widespread black ice again on the roads, but feeling reasonably mild in some parts by mid-day due to sunshine and light winds ... frost remaining in the shade all day, and heavy rime frost in many cases ... some persistent freezing fog ... should note however that south Kerry and southwest Cork will be milder due to cloud (highs near 8 C) -- this is that weak system that at one point we had indicated might drop light rain but now most of it is just offshore -- and highs otherwise will range from only 2 degrees to about 6 C.

TONIGHT ... Another clear and very cold night, with the thin band of cloud over the southwest perhaps hanging in over outer coasts, but otherwise a lot of freezing fog likely, black ice on roads, and lows -8 to -4 C for most, but as high as 2 C in the southwest.

FRIDAY ... Little change, very cold, mostly sunny after widespread fog and low cloud dissipate, but I think this may be the first of several days when some of the inland fog fails to lift and creates a freezing daytime too, so highs about 1-3 C for most, 5 C in some coastal spots.

WEEKEND ... Mostly clear skies, a little more cloud in the south at times, as light east winds set in, lows generally near -6 C and highs 2-5 C, some freezing fog that may become persistent inland north, and calm winds in most of the north.

OUTLOOK ... This cold, dry spell will continue almost indefinitely. Any changes are more likely to be towards deeper cold than milder relief, but there will always be some chance of a milder onshore flow if the high gets away from its predicted erratic course west, north, then east on a grand tour of the Irish coast. At most time it should be partly cloudy to clear but some patchy low cloud will become a more frequent ingredient too -- lows will average -5 and could reach -10 before this spell ends, and highs will average 3 C but could be a touch milder at times. There will also be a growing chance of light flurries or sleet showers near the southeast coast due to onshore winds.

Anyone travelling to Spain, the south of France, or Italy should take note, it won't be much warmer there, as quite cold air is pouring across the Alps and into the western Mediterranean to about the latitude of Valencia to Lisbon, south of that it should be a bit milder but no heat waves. Also take note that southeast England could be in for touches of wintry weather as a stronger northeast wind develops for them.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Wednesday 19th was cloudy and cold, with a high near 3 C; we're expecting sleet in the morning then rain as it warms up slowly.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER continues very cold for many, especially in central Canada and nearby northern states of the U.S., wind chills in Winnipeg today were near -35 C. A snowstorm is brewing for Friday in parts of the northeast U.S. and for Saturday in eastern Canada.

Before I go, I just wanted to stress the dangers of black ice and a glaring sun coming through scattered dense fog at low angles -- drive with extreme care in rural areas in particular.

Saturday, 22 January, 2011
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Only subtle changes in the weather will be seen for the next week, it appears -- there is a trend towards northeast winds as the high edges back to the west very slowly -- and this could increase the spread of low cloud from the Irish Sea in a similar way to what's been happening in the past few days over England from the North Sea. Areas that get the low cloud all day long tend to have much milder nights than others, but about the same daytime readings. But eventually the high will begin to ripple back from the west and (this is where the forecaster and the weather enthusiasts start climbing the walls) we could go through this all over again.

TODAY ... Widespread low cloud and fog especially in eastern and northern counties, lingering freezing fog in some west-central and southern inland locations, spells of pleasant sunshine near the southwest coast ... all with winds slowly picking up to NE 5-10 mph ... but highs will vary considerably, from about zero or even lower where fog lingers, to 6-7 C in some coastal locations that enjoy a bit of a breeze to move the air and mix it slowly (milder air is above a shallow inversion, in fact if you climb a hill today it could get warmer near the top).

TONIGHT ... Widespread fog, low cloud and mist, and patchy freezing fog with lows varying from -6 C in some inland areas to +2 C near east coast and in parts of north Ulster.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, lingering fog or freezing fog, winds picking up slightly more to NE 10-15 mph, highs about 5 C on average.

MONDAY ... Little change, foggy in many areas, some hazy sunshine or brighter intervals, lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Tuesday to at least the following weekend seem likely to remain very similar to the above, with dry conditions apart from slight moisture deposits from fog and rime frost, winds actually tending back to calm again after the excitement of the 10-15 mph northeasters, and chilly, although milder at times near some coasts (tops would be about 8 C).

There seems to be about a 20% chance of a much colder episode developing before end of January, as well as a 20% chance of a milder Atlantic spell, but the odds otherwise favour continued bland chilly weather like today's. Into early February, about the same picture continues. Sooner or later, this Atlantic high could link up with the cold Russian high (it's -30 near Moscow this morning) in such a way as to allow cold air to flow west, but so far the models seem to favour a kind of slack ridge that fails to mix the air masses very much.

MTC'S LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 21st was foggy with some late afternoon clearing, as winds began to increase, and the evening featured some rapidly-moving scud cloud at barely 300 feet just clearing the higher buildings around here, in a 30-40 mph westerly wind. With the full moon and various bright stars coming and going in gaps in this scudding cloud, it was quite a strange visual sensation (and I am used to those). Not too cold at 4 C. Snow has largely melted except for assorted snowman heads now lacking their snow bodies for support.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER featured a short but sweet snowstorm across New York and New England, that has since moved into New Brunswick in eastern Canada. Nova Scotia got mostly rain followed by snow squalls, while PEI and Newfoundland had a milder day that is now turning much colder as the low races northeast through the Gulf of St Lawrence towards the Labrador Sea. Another low will develop well offshore and follow that one across Newfoundland on Sunday night. Then a major storm is expected on the east coast by Wednesday. Bitterly cold air continues to sweep southeast out of the arctic but is taking more of an eastward path each day and has now relented for Alberta which is coming out of the deep freeze into milder Pacific air. It's quite nice down in California which you can check out visually if you watch the weekend golf from there.

Sunday, 23 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and rather chilly, with lingering mist or fog ... some longer bright or sunny intervals in south and west ... highs around 5 C on average and as high as 8 C in some southern and western districts. Winds rather light but northerly 10-15 mph for most.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy and misty, locally foggy, with isolated frost but lows generally about 2 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with brief sunny intervals, winds N-NW 15-25 mph, somewhat milder with brief passing showers developing for parts of the north, highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with showers, rather light and sporadic in most areas but more significant in Ulster and possibly east Leinster, winds becoming NNE 15 to 25 mph, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, any further showers becoming sleety or changing to hail or snow in east, colder, lows near zero and highs near 5 C. Winds easterly 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy and cold, possible sleet or snow showers in southeast, lows near -3 C and highs near 4 C.

OUTLOOK ... A further spell of cold, dry weather is likely as the high, tired of trying to go against the flow to the west, comes back for another visit and settles in again. Models keep trying to resolve this eventually as a milder southwest flow but I don't trust this idea very much (yet).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Saturday 22nd was cloudy and mild with a high near 9 C. Rain has developed since 8 p.m.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER continues very cold east of Alberta but the coldest now (especially relative to normal) has shifted to Ontario and Quebec as well as inland northeast U.S. and the upper Midwest. Some very low temperatures have been reported not that far from NYC and Boston. Anyone watching the U.S. football playoffs today will notice that conditions are bitterly cold in Chicago and Pittsburgh. The next east coast snowstorm will be a complicated business that may start with sleet and rain and change to heavy snow, mid-week.

Tuesday, 25 January, 2011
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Continued mild and rather damp weather to about mid-day Wednesday, then a sharp drop in temperatures and the slight risk of light snow in a few parts of the southeast by Thursday, with severe frosts returning.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild, and damp with showers that will likely be a bit heavier in the northwest than elsewhere, but 3-5 mms of rain in some places. Highs 8-10 C. Winds NW to N 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, continuing rather mild although with the winds NNE 15-30 mph feeling quite raw in drizzle or light rain, lows should average 2 C in the east and 4-6 C west.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy and mild with showers continuing in the west, then turning sharply colder late in the day, winds NE 15-30 mph, highs near 8 C. However, partly cloudy, turning colder mid-day in east and southeast, some sunny breaks, winds NE to E 15-35 mph, evening showers of sleet may develop in a few places. Highs near 5 C mid-day falling to 2 C late afternoon.

THURSDAY ... Cold and dry for most, with fairly extensive clear skies but localized cloud build-ups that could result in hail or snow showers locally, especially in areas between Dublin and Wexford. A slight chance of 1-2 cms of snow in a few places. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C. Winds across the southern counties E 15-30 mph, not as windy further north to near calm in parts of Ulster.

FRIDAY ... Very cold and mainly sunny during the day after a sharp morning frost, lows near -5 C, icy roads likely, highs near 3 C. Winds east 10-20 mph near south coast, otherwise rather light to calm. Some risk of persistent freezing fog returning.

WEEKEND and BEYOND ... This clear, cold air mass will once again try to moderate slowly and we could go through the same slow sequence of events as in the past week, one more time, but in general would expect below normal temperatures and generally dry weather into early February. Prospects beyond about 2-3 Feb seem to rest on strength of storms coming out of North America and thus the period may start cold and slowly become much milder with a mild spell mid-month.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Monday 24th was cloudy and mild with some light rain, highs near 10 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER continues about the same as yesterday's report, the mid-week storm is now slowly coming together over the Gulf coast and scattered bits of energy further north phasing in, but nothing much is happening yet. Snowfalls of 10-30 cms seem likely for the same areas as previous storms, inland New England hardest hit by Thursday.

I will update this forecast for Thursday's snow potential after reviewing the latest guidance around 1700h.

Thursday, 27 January, 2011
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ALERT for icy roads in some inland locations each day through this weekend, mostly in the overnight and morning hours.

TODAY ... Cloudy this morning in eastern and most central counties, some sunshine in western counties, and scattered wintry showers that may include sleet, hail and snow ... measurable snow more likely on east-facing slopes of Dublin, Wicklow counties but some could be seen elsewhere ... more sunshine for all counties by this afternoon with isolated wintry showers continuing ... cold in general with easterly winds 15-30 mph ... highs 2-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and very cold, some freezing fog developing well inland, lows -3 to -6 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, cold, less windy than today, but a cold east wind near the south coast ... can't totally rule out a passing wintry shower in the southeast ... highs 2-5 C.

SATURDAY ... Sharp to severe frost followed by cool or even cold sunshine, lows near -5 C and highs near 4 C ... very light winds, calm in some places, and the risk of freezing fog lingering.

SUNDAY ... Cold and sunny again, except for somewhat milder and cloudy conditions in the northwest, drizzle near shore or just offshore ... lows for most regions near -5 C and highs near 5 C (a range from -2 to +7 C in west and northwest).

OUTLOOK ... Models only seem to have a vague idea what's going to happen to this long-standing ridge, and solutions might include a colder turn or a more rapid onset of mild weather, but those seem like low chances compared to a continuation of the rather cold, settled weather under a high pressure ridge that just can't seem to take the hint and push off.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... yes I am still at home, but it was sunny and mild with a high of 13 degrees, mild enough to take off the jacket and I imagine the golf courses were doing a brisk business. We can thank a southerly flow up the coast for this weather, and it's quite mild as far east as the plains and southern prairies.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... see the above for the western half, which is mild ... the east coast got slammed by a rapidly developing storm with heavy snow replacing sleet and cold rain, leading to 20-40 cm totals and some reports of thundersnow. This storm will be battering Nova Scotia by this afternoon.

Although I don't expect any major snowfall, keep an eye on the threads for some local reports especially in the east and southeast.

I think you'll find the local Global TV station has good forecasts for this region. I don't currently publish forecasts for anywhere in North America on a regular basis. I will comment on significant coming weather in my boards forecast if you want to check in (there's a regular one-sentence update on my local weather but I don't usually forecast there).

As an update, looks like clearing might be rather slow (in Ireland) tonight, but I do expect some clearing to develop and lows in the -3 to -1 range.

Saturday, 29 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Cold with some lingering fog or mist, hazy sunshine becoming more widespread by late morning, light winds, highs only 2-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Another very cold, calm night in most places, widespread mist or fog, some icy roads and freezing fog, lows -5 to -2 C (possibly a bit milder in coastal northwest).

SUNDAY ... Becoming generally overcast, some hazy sunshine in south, also some lingering fog or mist, drizzle at times near northwest coast, highs will range from 2-4 C in south, to 4-7 C northwest.

MONDAY ... Becoming breezy and milder with rain late afternoon or evening in west and north, lows 0-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy or windy (SW 30-50 mph) with showers, some clearing later, mild with lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing breezy, mild and unsettled with potential for some intervals of stronger wind and bursts of heavy rain, but generally not too extreme with temperatures near or slightly above normal.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Friday 28th was cloudy with intervals of light rain, and near normal temperatures for here, about 8 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... a snowfall event of 5-10 cms is moving into the western Great Lakes this morning and will track east-south-east towards Maryland and Pennsylvania, New Jersey and NYC, Long Island later, with similar amounts and temperatures near -2 C for those regions. Western Canada is turning much colder as this low departs. Cold fronts are sagging south into a very mild air mass located over the south-central plains states which continue to enjoy readings of 15-20 C. A secondary low near Montana-Wyoming is running southeast along this front bringing more snow to the north-central plains states.

Monday, 31 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Any fog or mist should gradually clear this morning with a few intervals of hazy sunshine or at least bright skies, before denser cloud arrives from the west around mid-day. The chilly conditions will be replaced by rather mild weather with highs of about 8 C on average, near 10 C in parts of the west. Some drizzle or light rain will make gradual progress further east across northern counties. Winds will pick up gradually too, reaching SW 20-30 mph by late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, showers or periods of light rain, milder than previous nights with the low falling only to 4-7 C. About 5-10 mms of rain likely.

TUESDAY ... Showers will gradually clear in a rather blustery WSW wind, some sunny intervals by afternoon, highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with showers, moderate SW winds and lows near -1 C then highs of 9-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Turning rather cold during the early morning with strong westerly winds (30-50 mph) at times, mixed showers developing with risk of hail or even snow on higher ground in north, temperatures steady near 5 C, rising later in the evening when rain arrives on strong SW winds (40-60 mph).

Temperatures will then rise to about 10-12 C overnight into Friday.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY will be windy (SW 35-55 mph) and quite mild, highs near 12 C, intervals of light rain and the possibility of some very strong wind gusts at times in the northwest (to 70 mph).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... temperatures falling back to more normal levels of about 6-9 C, showery.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Sunday 30th was sunny and rather cool with a high of about 5 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... see yesterday's post, all aspects of this forecast continue to develop gradually, and severe cold has spread south into parts of the northern U.S., while a storm slowly develops in Colorado and New Mexico. By Tuesday, this will be dropping heavy snow in Chicago and other parts of the Midwest, 30-50 cms possible. By Wednesday the storm will be near New York City and then Boston with sleet or freezing rain expected in parts of the northeast and heavy snow a bit further north.

Wednesday, 2 February, 2011
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After weeks of almost no atmospheric movement, now the systems are racing along at almost 80 knots, and there will be three periods with strong winds and squally showers -- today, late tomorrow, and Friday-Saturday. In between it may feel quite cold as bursts of much colder air are drawn into the fast flow pattern.

TODAY ... Rather windy and mild at first with squally showers developing, heavy at times in Connacht and later in Ulster. Winds will reach SW 35-55 mph and rainfalls of 5-15 mms are expected, the heavier amounts in the north. Highs will reach 10-12 C but it may start to turn rather cold by this evening as winds veer more westerly.

TONIGHT ... Blustery, cold, mixed wintry showers developing across higher parts of the north, including some hail and possibly a bit of snow too, but only rain showers in lower elevations and most of the south ... winds WSW at about 30-50 mph, lows 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... A few morning sunny breaks but quite windy with passing squally showers becoming frequent across the north, mixing sleet, hail and snow over higher ground at first, with winds SW 40-60 mph. Periods of rain will become heavy by afternoon (west) and evening (east) with strong wind gusts, temperatures rising to about 10 C. Some wind gusts to 70 mph possible in Connacht and Donegal, 50-60 mph elsewhere. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms can be expected; any snow earlier should melt rapidly.

FRIDAY ... Another colder interval may rush through on Friday morning in blustery west winds, with a morning low of about 3-5 C, but then once again it will warm up rapidly in a southwest wind of 35-55 mph and periods of rain. Temperatures will peak around 11-13 C and stay well up on Friday night into Saturday, with further rainfalls, averaging 20-30 mms.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild, periods of rain, temperatures near 12 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Breezy or windy, showery, turning somewhat colder again, highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cooler, unsettled for a while, then a more settled period will follow with some risk of frost returning, models hint at much colder weather in about two weeks.

MTC'S LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday (1st) was sunny and cold with a high barely above freezing, and currently (11 p.m. in the evening) it is clear and about -4 C. Tomorrow should be a bit milder, and the rest of the week generally quite mild and dry.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A fierce blizzard struck Chicago and nearby parts of the Midwest, with extensive freezing rain further south and east towards New York City. The snow is moving across the lower Great Lakes into northern New York state and interior New England later today. Chicago had 30-50 cms of snow and northeast winds of 40-60 mph, thunder and lightning ... in other words, it was about like Dublin end of November but with gale force winds thrown in. This storm will be done late tonight or early Thursday and bitterly cold air is pushing south behind it, firing up another weaker storm that will come up the east coast by the weekend. Another part of the massive cold outbreak is heading for the desert southwest and parts of California. Where I'm situated, we got the outer edge of the severe cold and now it's coming back at us from the south, slowly warming up.

AUSTRALIA ... Severe tropical cyclone Yasi is heading for a landfall in central Queensland, about 200 kms north of Brisbane, so its main effects will be somewhat to the north of last month's severe flood zone. It could make landfall in about 12 hours (this will be Thursday down under) as a cat-4 storm., although it has been at cat-5 over the Coral Sea with a central pressure reported at 922 mbs. :eek: