Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

UPDATE _ Monday, 6:30 p.m.
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Heavy rain will continue to move steadily north in parts of west-central Ireland, the track of the heavier rain now in county Cork will be approximately on a line through Limerick, east Clare and Lough Derg, east Galway, and into west Ulster (including parts of Donegal). Some areas will get 20-30 mms of rain from this frontal band, further east towards Wexford and Dublin looking more like 5-10 mms, with intermediate amounts in between. One fortunate thing here is that some of the heavier rain is falling on regions that saw little or no snow, so far, but this will tend to change further north.

Wednesday, 29 December, 2010
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Forecast follows on from yesterday ... not much change in the various models and considerable agreement among them ... the general theme is very gradual cooling back towards below normal from the current above normal temperatures.

TODAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain, rather light and drizzly in most cases, but 5-10 mms could accumulate, a little more in parts of inland Connacht. Becoming rather foggy later today, as slightly cooler air seeps into the mix, but highs around 9-11 C in general.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, drizzle or light rain in a few areas, slightly cooler with lows around 2-5 C on average.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, southeast winds at about 10-20 mph, and some local drizzle near south coast. Highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Morning dense fog and local frost where any clearing develops, lows about -2 to +3 C ... afternoon cloudy with some sunny breaks, misty or foggy in some inland counties, highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Sharp morning frosts, sunny and cool with some patchy low cloud or fog in the mix too, lows -5 to -1 C and highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Little change, could become slightly milder again in west, lows around -5 to -1 C, highs 4-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Any milder tendency would be short-lived due to the current high sinking south to allow a brief westerly, then a reinforced northerly could develop at any point middle to end of the first week of the new year. Despite the rather bland look of the models, there is plenty of potential here for a strong arctic outbreak so we're watching this very closely.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Tuesday 28th was pleasant, the sun broke through mid-day despite a lot of higher cloud, with grey towering cumulus off to the southeast and north. The highs today were about 7 C. Currently cloudy and about 3 C at 10:30 p.m. local time here.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... Relatively pleasant weather in the east after the big snowstorm, allowing recovery to proceed without much interruption in places that got 1-2 feet of snow on the weekend. Milder across the central U.S. in advance of a strong storm off to my south here (hence the high cloud), forming over Oregon moving towards North Dakota by Thursday night. This will bring temperatures up to 10-15 C as far north as Lake Erie by New Years Eve, and 8-10 C on the east coast to melt some of the snow gradually there.

Next update from me is likely to be 24 hours hence, as we're enjoying the holidays and going on a few day trips. Looks to me as though everyone in the weather forum is taking a long overdue break too -- but we'll all be back at it soon enough, I'm sure. :cool:

UPDATE _ Thursday, 9 p.m.
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No significant changes to forecast, but some comments on the model outlook for next week. There is growing consensus from the five or six most reliable models that wintry cold and possibly snow will return around the middle of next week, with a gradual shift from modified cold this weekend and early next week, to something more arctic in nature. While the European model indicates quite a stormy period, the rest of the models have more of a northerly appearance, so taking some sort of consensus there, it would probably be most likely to see periods of more disturbed weather embedded in the generally cold northerly so that snow would be most likely in the west and north with more of a showery or dry pattern in the south and east.

As we get closer to the time, we'll have more details that we feel are reliable, but the general picture seems to be this -- getting colder in stages, but still tolerable and mainly dry through Monday, showery on Tuesday and getting colder towards the end of the day, and wintry at least in temperature, with snow possible in the west and north, by about Wednesday.

Next update with the regular morning forecast around 0600h.

Saturday, 1 January, 2011
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Cloud has proven to be quite stubborn and may just start to break up slowly during the day, from north to south. There seems to be a better chance of clearing tonight, although even there, not a sure thing. Then cloud will slowly return late Sunday night and Monday, with a strengthening frontal system dropping southeast late Tuesday bringing a change to considerably colder weather -- at least that's the weak verdict of the models with a spread attached.

TODAY ... Cloudy with late morning sunny breaks developing, some sunshine during the afternoon in many parts although cloud could prove more stubborn in some parts of Connacht and west Munster. Patchy light showers drifting further south and then southwest during the day, but only trace amounts to about 1 mm likely. Highs today about 5-7 C and winds becoming NE 10 mph.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, possibly quite cold as a result, with lows potentially -5 to -1 C (but where cloud holds firm, it could stay above freezing, this more likely in west coast to south coast districts). Patches of ice fog developing, some very slippery roads in Ulster, Leinster, east Munster, inland Connacht.

SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals with a gradual increase in cloud from the northwest later in the day, highs 2-5 C, chilly especially in the shade where frost may linger all day.

MONDAY ... A few clear spots in southeast early morning could see lows near -5 C again, but a milder overnight developing in northwest, then cloudy during the day for most, with light rain brushing the north coast and a few sprinkles of sleet possible over higher ground further south by late afternoon, but after a mostly dry day ... highs 4-8 C, mildest in southwest.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing in a strong westerly wind across the north, but these only arriving further south by late in the day, by which time strong northwest winds will be arriving in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C, with winds reaching 25-45 mph later in the day.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, colder, passing showers turning to sleet, hail or snow more frequently in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near -1 C and highs near 4 C. Some models are suggesting quite strong northwest winds, but this is not settled yet.

OUTLOOK ... The prospects for the latter part of the week into the following weekend are quite mixed (up) on the models, but the colder solutions look somewhat more plausible to me ... although I would only say a 60-40 chance of having a prolonged cold spell lasting well into the weekend ... there is therefore some chance of a brief and weak cold spell transitioning to milder and then eventually rainy and stormy conditions (as per one model, the GFS).

I'm thinking that the GFS may have diagnosed a later trend that could be more realistic for mid-month. It's odd to find that the GEM and European models are more in agreement than any other combination, yet these are the main "cold" solutions at this point.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Friday (31 Dec) was sunny and cold again, with the high about 2 deg. It remains clear and very cold approaching midnight here, about -5 C.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... The strong northern plains storm has spawned some deadly tornadoes in Arkansas and Missouri earlier on Friday, and this front is now approaching Chicago and Louisville on its way to the Great Lakes by afternoon. The front is slowly weakening and while the weather will turn colder this storm is now past its energy peak. Looks like some exceptionally cold air moving south later in the weekend and through the week in central Canada to bring frigid conditions to the Great Lakes and then the northeast by late in the first week of the new year.

Happy New Year to you and yours.

Monday, 3 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Some morning sunny or at least brighter intervals mainly in the north, outbreaks of drizzle near south coast where cloud more likely to hold, then a general increase in cloud across the north in advance of some light rain that could start as sleet or wet snow on hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Remaining fairly dry across much of the central belt from Clare to Dublin. Light winds at first then a westerly breeze of 10-20 mph as highs reach 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, sleet or rain at times, becoming rather heavy in a few parts of Connacht (snow accumulations 2-5 cms on hills). Still rather dry further south with just scattered showers after midnight. A bit milder again with lows 1-4 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, some with hail and possibly a rumble of thunder, becoming quite windy in west and north (WSW 30-45 mph), breezy further south, highs 6-8 C. Some sunny breaks too, quite a varied weather day likely. By TUESDAY NIGHT expect some snow in Donegal and other parts of west Ulster, inland Mayo and parts of Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon. 3-7 cms could fall by morning although sleet is expected near sea level. Winds turning more northwest through the night, mixed wintry showers becoming more prevalent further south also, as lows fall to about -1 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Further outbreaks of snow or sleet, some hail, and mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals more likely in south, quite cold, with winds WNW 20-40 mph, highs only 1-3 C for most, 3-5 C south coast.

THURSDAY ... After quite a frosty night with lows -5 to -1 C, further outbreaks of snow mainly in northwest, some sunny breaks further south, cold with highs zero to +3 C ... a period of sleet and hill snow could also develop in the southwest from an Atlantic frontal wave. Winds tending to diminish through the day.

FRIDAY ... Mixed rain, sleet and wet snow likely across parts of the south, dry and cold further north except for some coastal snow showers in the north, lows -4 to zero C, highs 3-5 C south, 1-3 C north. Not as windy.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Uncertain prospects as models continue to chop and change, but the consensus seems to be that milder air will try to return north Friday night, find its way easier into southern England, allowing the cold lurking over the north to seep back south and change any early rain back to sleet and then wet snow. This cold outbreak, while not as severe as earlier ones, may be messy in its own right and be more of an elevation-based snowfall event.

FURTHER OUTLOOK: Colder and drier for a time Sunday into Monday, then a more vigorous push of milder air seems likely ... the period from about 12th to 17th seems likely to run fairly mild and windy at times, and it could get stormy in this period as, for the first time this winter, milder air meets up with a strong jet stream. The cold will not just vanish, but hold back for a while and possibly could come streaming back south once this series of windy fronts comes and goes.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER has been lovely, thanks, after some light drizzle in the early morning, it cleared up again and has been around 5 C with light winds, so quite pleasant.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... Tracking a very cold air mass south towards the Great Lakes, not much happening yet, but expecting some major snow squall activity by mid-week. See yesterday's report if you didn't already read it, for other details on long-range in North America. No changes to that.

I've had a nice rest and updated the forecast contests, so I hope to get into more regular updates this week, now that the quiet spell seems to be coming to an end.

Tuesday, 4 January, 2011
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New moon occurs today and in fact the Sun will rise partially eclipsed around 0830-0900h ... although I doubt that too many will catch a direct look at it, you may notice that it stays a bit darker than usual after sunrise.

TODAY ... Windy and relatively mild with periods of rain developing ... rain mixing with sleet and hill snow by afternoon and evening especially in Connacht and Ulster. Winds SW 25-45 mph and highs 6-8 C. About 5 mms of rain on average. Snow starting to accumulate on hills in north, west by evening.

TONIGHT ... Windy and colder with sleet, snow or hail, accumulating snow in parts of Connacht and Ulster, and on highest terrain further south and east, but continuing rain showers in some parts of south and east. Lows about -2 C in the north to +1 C southeast. Winds becoming westerly 25-45 mph adding quite a chill (feeling like -5 C in exposed locations). Accumulations of 3-7 cms of snow away from sea level in Connacht and west Ulster, scattered 2-4 cms elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers of hail, snow and sleet, some with thunder, winds WNW 20-40 mph, very cold ... highs only -2 to +2 C ... some further accumulations of 7-15 cms of snow in parts of Connacht and Ulster, 2-5 cms elsewhere, but tending towards only melting or scattered falls on east coast and across the south. Some sunny intervals by afternoon, brisk winds adding a chill, feeling like -5 C to -10 C.

THURSDAY ... Sharp to severe frosts, snow showers becoming more confined to north and west coasts and dying out, some sunshine despite a lot of higher cloud, less windy but staying quite cold ... lows near -5 C with isolated -10 C possible, and highs -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals further north, risk of a period of snow across higher parts of south, southeast, morning lows near -4 C and highs near 2 C (rising to 5 C south).

SATURDAY ... Sleet or wet snow at times, becoming windy with heavy snow showers developing in some parts of the west and north again, very cold, lows near -2 C and highs near 3 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with heavy snow showers possible across much of west and north, scattered further east, some sunshine at times in south, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near -1 C and highs near 2 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cloudy, milder from late Monday on, with periods of rain developing, temperatures likely to rise to about 7-10 C by Tuesday or Wednesday with moderate SW winds at times, risk of a stronger windstorm developing at some point towards end of the week. This mild spell is expected to last only a few days then cold will probably return in some form.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 3rd was sunny with some frost in the shade, cool with highs about 3-4 C. Cloudy at present, sleet or wet snow expected on Tuesday here.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... Everyone across North America being warned of much colder weather patterns to replace what has been seasonable chill past day or two ... and forecasters watching possible blizzard-like storms timed for about Sunday and mid-week threatening northeast U.S. again.

Watch for updates and visit the other discussion threads in the weather forum for more views and forecasts.

Wednesday, 5 January, 2011
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ALERT issued for Connacht and west Ulster, locally heavy showers of snow or hail, squally conditions at times, locally icy roads and reduced visibility. Some heavy snow accumulations of 5-8 cms mostly on higher terrain, 2-5 cms likely closer to sea level but not everywhere in this zone.

TODAY ... Heavy, at times squally showers of hail and snow will affect parts of Connacht and west Ulster, eventually extending a little further southeast, with westerly winds 25-45 mph. Highs zero to +3 C in this zone. Further south and east, some sunny periods and moderate SW winds, rather cold, highs 4-6 C. The far south could continue to see some showers mixing on hills with wet snow, for a few hours this morning, but this should clear southward by mid-day, while remnant mixed showers from the northwest will begin to invade central counties as well as east Ulster, bringing scattered hail, snow or rain showers by late morning into afternoon; the earlier squally weather in the northwest may then begin to ease. Conditions will be rather variable and some sunshine may continue in a few areas.

TONIGHT ... A few leftover wintry showers but widespread clearing with a diminishing westerly wind, sharp frosts and local icy roads, fog patches near any open water inland. Lows -5 to -2 C.

THURSDAY ... Cold with some sunshine, except for the occasional passing flurry or hail shower in the north. Increasing cloud over Kerry and Cork by afternoon. Winds falling light then backing to east across Munster, elsewhere just variable. Highs will be generally 2-4 C.

THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... A mixture of snow, sleet and rain is likely across the southwest before midnight and into the southeast by morning. This precipitation will likely start out as snow or sleet in all but the coastal areas, where it should be mostly rain. However, as the event unfolds, some of the sleet and snow will also change to rain. Heavier snow accumulations of 5-10 cms seem likely above 200 metres a.s.l. and south of a line from about south Clare to Meath. North of that, the skies may remain clear to partly cloudy with only slight amounts of snow. Overnight lows of about -4 C north, -1 C south; daytime highs for most near 2 C, but 5 C south coast.

This weather system should finish dropping its mixed bag of wintry precipitation by Friday night and move on into Wales and southern England.

For Dublin and Wicklow, expect some heavier snow on the east slopes of the mountains and mixtures of sleet or wet snow closer to sea level, mixing with rain. All of this is subject to change as we get updated information; there is even a slight chance that the storm would miss most areas to the south.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather cold with a few intervals of sunshine each day, but some scattered wintry showers, mostly snow but some of hail or sleet too. There would probably be more of these in the west and north than elsewhere, until possibly Sunday night, when a weak band of wet snow or sleet may move across the country. Highs on the weekend will be about 2 or 3 C, overnight lows about -4 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Monday will probably remain a little on the cool side with sleet or rain late in the day, then it should turn considerably milder for 3-5 days with risk of some strong winds at times. Highs would be 7-10 C by mid-week. This mild spell may end rather gradually but there will be a return to colder weather after mid-month.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cold with sleet at times, not much accumulation, turning a bit milder by evening as temperatures continue to rise.

WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AMERICA continues to be quite cold in most regions with even colder air masses expected late this week and through next week. Details from yesterday remain valid on that.

Watch for updates on the slowly advancing band of wintry precipitation across Connacht and West Ulster today.

UPDATE _ Thursday 6 Jan 2011 _ 11 p.m.
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Latest guidance suggests the following outcomes for the complex Friday weather system:

Snow appears likely to break out late tonight inland parts of Kerry, Cork, and Waterford, with zones of freezing drizzle or even freezing rain, and then rain, closer to the coast. The rain-snow dividing line is expected to be about 100m above sea level and on the average 10-15 kms inland (but closer to the coast where terrain is higher). These boundaries will likely shift further inland and further upwards in elevation on Friday morning, as the precipitation shifts slowly north and also starts to overspread the southeast, where similar zones will develop.

By afternoon and evening, the snow will probably be found a bit further north in western Ireland and considerably further north in eastern Ireland, so that the axis of heavier accumulating snow will be something like south Limerick county to Thurles to Navan and towards the Meath coast. In this zone, some areas will see 10-12 cms but any lower elevations and town or city centres could see less as the temperatures will be marginal, and even small urban heat islands could change the phase of precip to sleet.

Overall then, the snowfall forecasts would be something like this:

5-8 cms inland parts of the southwest and southeast except

8-12 cms some parts of southeast Limerick, Tipps, north Cork, Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Kildare, and higher parts of Wexford, Wicklow and Dublin

In really high elevations mainly above human settlement, 12-20 cms could fall on higher slopes below summits facing east.

For Cork, Waterford and Wexford cities, it seems likely that a bit of everything will fall, snow, sleet, freezing drizzle, and eventually rain, then possibly back to sleet and a topping of snow near the end of the event.

For coastal Wicklow, would expect bursts of heavy snow then sleet and rain.

For Dublin and up to the north along the Meath coast, coastal and city centre districts will probably see only sleet and rain, but at about 100-200m asl expect 3-7 cms of snow and higher up, 8-12 cms. In all cases the snow could begin to mix with sleet by late afternoon.

The situation continues uncertain but this is our latest "best estimate" of what may unfold. Disruptions to road travel seem most likely from this scenario in a zone between west Dublin and Limerick centered on Laois and Tipps.

The snowfall potential in Connacht and Ulster seems to be more of a scattered 1-3 cm and partly dry scenario -- mixing would be less likely there, but many places could escape precipitation altogether.

Saturday, 8 January, 2011
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ALERT for scattered heavy snow showers, also some hail and sleet, icy roads both from the aftermath of Friday's mixed precipitation in central and western counties and today's additional wintry precipitation. The heaviest showers today will likely be in Connacht, Donegal and parts of west Munster.

TODAY ... Variable cloud and cold this morning with a few scattered wintry showers, followed by heavier and more organized bursts of snow or hail across parts of Donegal, Connacht and West Munster spreading to other parts of the country in less intense form ... local 3-5 cms of snow possible especially in Mayo and Donegal ... highs only 2-4 C in winds WSW veering to WNW 20-40 mph.

TONIGHT ... A few residual wintry showers, clearing, fog patches and bitterly cold again, lows -6 to -3 C, winds diminishing to NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals, increasing cloud, possible wintry showers or sleet by evening. Highs near 3 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of sleet changing to rain, foggy, milder, highs near 6 C by late in the day.

TUESDAY ... Fog, drizzle or light rain, becoming quite windy later in the day with bursts of heavier rain, winds SSW 30-50 mph, temperatures rising to about 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, very mild, winds SW 20-40 mph, highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY ... This period is likely to remain rather mild with occasional showers, possible strong winds at times, and highs 6-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder with some chance of snow returning at times later this month.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 7th was showery with colder weather arriving in the afternoon, temperatures have fallen from near 8 C to about 3 at present. We are expecting a much colder week ahead with possible snow.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Scattered 10-20 cm snowfalls were found in parts of the northeast U.S. and New England Friday, although it is not a large, powerful storm but scattered snow showers with weak systems.

Sunday, 9 January, 2011
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TODAY ... mostly sunny across the south and east, some morning cloud and scattered wintry showers west and north ... these showers will tend to die out by mid-day giving sunny periods in all regions by afternoon ... winds also diminishing after a rather breezy morning in some parts (WNW 15-30 mph) ... highs 4-6 C.

TONIGHT ... clear at first, sleety showers developing with fog in many places after midnight, icy roads may develop in the north and central counties, lows around -1 C.

MONDAY ... morning sleet becoming rain as temperatures rise slowly in a brisk southerly wind (20-35 mph), rather chilly because of the wind, although highs in the 5-8 C range. ... some dense fog inland north.

MONDAY NIGHT ... clearing again, frosty near midnight then cloud spreading in, sleet in north, rain in south by morning, lowest temperatures near -1 C.

TUESDAY ... windy and turning milder, mostly cloudy, intervals of light rain, but some sunny breaks possible in south, winds rising to SSW 20-40 mph, gusts to about 50 mph near west and south coasts, temperatures steadily increasing to about 10 C late in the day.

WEDNESDAY ... breezy and very mild, some hazy bright intervals, followed by showers, highs near 11-12 C. Winds SW 20-40 mph.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... remaining mild, some rain at times, winds SW 20-40 mph. Highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK for next weekend ... windy and mild, showers or periods of rain, possibly turning sharply colder late Sunday or Monday, but before that, highs near 9 or 10 C.

MTC's WEATHER on Saturday 8th was partly cloudy and chilly, dry, highs about 3 or 4 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... heavy snow across parts of inland B.C. and Alberta on Saturday, turning much colder from north to south ... rather cold across most of Canada, northern U.S., scattered outbreaks of light to moderate snow in New England, a few places have reported 10-20 cms although many have seen only 2-5 cms. Dry and cool across the southeast, dry and milder in the central plains states ahead of the low bringing snow to western Canada, which is dropping southeast to bring blizzards to Montana and later Wyoming and the Dakotas. Severe cold is in the charts for western Canada most of the next ten days. This means that we here on the coast can expect a drop below freezing, but inland, -20 to -30 C.

Tuesday, 11 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Sunny and becoming very mild once the morning northwest wind dies out ... cloud may arrive mid-day on the west coast but rain is further out to sea and won't spread in until evening. Winds at mid-day will fall to a light westerly then back southerly and pick up rapidly, reaching SSW 30-50 mph by evening. Highs at mid-afternoon should be near 7 C north and 10 C south, but if temperatures fall at all this evening they should come back up to around 10-12 C by midnight as the rain sweeps through.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very mild with periods of rain, temperatures steady in the range of 7-10 C in most areas, 5-7 C Ulster. Winds SW 30-50 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Some dry intervals developing in a brisk SW wind 20-40 mph, then more showers and periods of rain later, highs 11-13 C south, 8-10 C north.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with showers, perhaps a few brighter intervals, winds steady at SW 20-40 mph, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, rain developing, strong S-SW winds, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy (possibly very windy or stormy west coast) with rain and temperatures steady 7-9 C. Expect winds from SSW at about 30-50 mph and possibly as high as 45-65 mph west coast. At the moment this does not quite look like a damage-causing windstorm but at this range we need to be monitoring that potential.

SUNDAY ... Still quite breezy, showery, a bit cooler as winds shift to WSW 30-40 mph. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... The next storm in the sequence may take a more southerly track around mid-week and could allow colder air back into the mix. There are mixed signals on the models but it seems likely to me that a gradual shift to cold, northerly sourced air masses would follow towards the end of January.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Monday 10th was cloudy with a few sunny intervals, cold, but dry. Some snowflakes have been reported around the area but the main event, a snowstorm turning to freezing rain and then rain, is about 12 hours away now. The high earlier was about -1 C. Currently -2 C.

ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ... Alberta is digging out of a severe blizzard in bitterly cold conditions, and even colder air is forming over the Beaufort Sea (north of Alaska), threatening to move south later this week. The current arctic air is already quite cold (-15 C to -25 C) and pushing far south now in the wake of a snowstorm over the southeast states that hit Atlanta GA hard, and is now moving through the Carolinas towards the northeast U.S. for a two-day snowstorm that may bring as much as 30 cms to NYC and Boston again.

Today should be one of those days where you can do your own weather forecasting from looking at the clouds. Watch for the sequence of clear skies, widespread cirrus and contrails, milky sky (then probably sunset) with sun dimly visible in southwest, followed by rain. Anyone heading out early, if you have clear skies before sunrise, you should be able to see Venus very bright in the southeast.

Thursday, 13 January, 2011
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The very mild spell should last through the weekend, with strong winds at times on Friday and Saturday, into Sunday morning. We are a lot less certain about the pattern development next week, and several options are possible, as discussed at the end of this forecast.

TODAY ... Hazy, mostly dry, some sunshine, but also some local drizzle or light rain mostly near the south coast later today ... winds SW 20-30 mph, and highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... A few showers, breezy, mild, lows 4-7 C, winds SW 15-25 mph. Becoming foggy.

FRIDAY ... After a few morning sunny breaks, becoming cloudy with periods of rain developing, potential for 30-40 mms of rain into early Saturday, becoming windy by evening as southerly gales develop (30-50 mph), highs near 10 to 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Very windy (SW 35-55 mph) with rain becoming showery, clearing from west by afternoon, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showery, turning a bit cooler with lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Dry and slightly colder early in the week, although frosts rather slight and daytime highs 5-7 C. Chance of periods of rain or sleet mid-week, then things become quite uncertain at this distance, about equal chances that it will stay relatively mild or turn considerably colder. There may not be too much clarity in the outlook until the weekend. Potentially large changes are underway across the polar regions and these could overturn the current model solutions quite rapidly in the 7-15 day time frame. I think there's an increasing chance of wintry conditions later in the month.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday (11th) brought a heavy snowfall overnight, 8-10 cms locally, 15-30 cms to the east of here, then it turned to light rain and began to thaw gradually -- the high was 4 C and about half the snow has melted since this morning.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... New England got the brunt of the east coast storm on Wednesday, with 50 cms in parts of CT and western MA, almost that much in Boston. New York City had about 30 cms but it ended around sunrise and cleared rapidly there. Very cold air remains locked into the central regions of the U.S. and Canada from a source region near the Yukon.

Friday, 14 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Some heavy morning showers, followed by variable cloud, continuing very mild and becoming quite windy late in the day, as south to southwest winds rise to about 30-50 mph. Highs 10-12 C. Rainfalls this morning about 5-10 mms, but heavier amounts later (see tonight).

TONIGHT ... Windy and mild with bursts of heavy rain, 20-40 mms likely, the heavier amounts in the south and southwest. Winds SSW 35-55 mph, lows around 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Very windy with periods of rain, 10-20 mms additional, winds SSW to SW generally 40-60 mph (highest gusts about 70 mph Connacht coast and higher elevations) ... highs 9-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued very windy through the early hours with rain becoming showery, winds veering to WSW then dropping to about 20-30 mph, some clearing, isolated showers re-developing, somewhat cooler with highs near 8 after overnight readings in the same range as Saturday's highs.

MONDAY ... Dry and considerably colder, morning lows near zero C and possibly a few degrees lower in some rural areas, highs 5-7 C. Some sunshine with cloudy intervals.

OUTLOOK ... Several days of dry, cold weather, sharp frosts at night, some ice-fog, sunshine or low cloud in the daytime, lows around -4 C and highs only 3-6 C (possibly lower in some areas if fog or low cloud persist).

The models are continuing to hint at even colder weather at times towards the last ten days of January. This would require the high dominating next week's weather to lift further north or shift to the northwest. If that high just stays in place or sinks south, it may eventually turn a bit milder again.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Thursday 13th was mild and mostly cloudy with morning rain, not very heavy, and the last of the Wednesday morning snow melting away, as highs reached 10 degrees.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER remains very cold in all but the west coast regions from here south to California, and some parts of inland western Canada are as cold as -30 C presently. The east coast storm has weakened and moved past Newfoundland now -- it is now heading for Ireland (see Sunday morning in forecast).

Saturday, 15 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy and very mild, continuing windy (SW 30-50 mph) with bursts of heavy rain across the south, 15-30 mms possible there, 5-15 mms likely further north, where there could also be some brighter intervals ... temperatures steady 10-12 C (some place may hit 13 C today).

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, further showers, winds SW 25-40 mph, lows 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Gradual clearing, not quite as mild, winds WSW 20-40 mph, isolated showers mainly in Connacht by late in the day, highs 7-10 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Showers dying out over the north, clearing or partly cloudy, scattered frost, lows -2 to +2 C, winds falling off to calm.

MONDAY ... More cloud near the north and south coasts than elsewhere, and some chance of showers with that cloud, but dry and cool elsewhere, highs about 5-7 C. Light winds (westerly across the north, southeast near the south coast).

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Dry and cold for most, some sharp frosts inland north, lows to -4 C, more cloud in the south from a low off western France, some light rain or even sleet possible in Munster especially Cork to Bantry, highs about 4 C on average. Winds light in the north but SE 15-25 mph near the south coast.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY ... Cold with sharp frosts, possible lingering fog or ice fog, but warming to above freezing for most places at mid-day, typical lows near -5 C and highs near 3 C.
The earlier sleet or rain in southwest regions could persist into Thursday but should die out shortly afterwards.

OUTLOOK ... Still rather uncertain but with hints on various models of colder weather building in from either the east or the north. We don't expect much clarity on this period for a few more days yet, but it seems safe to say that the very mild spell is about to end for the foreseeable future.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Friday 14th was cloudy and very mild with light rain at times, highs near 12 C. No, I'm not in Ireland !! ...

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ... Very cold across most of inland western Canada, our coastal mild spell extends only about 100 miles north of here but has led to severe flooding in a few places from the earlier snow melting (not in the city). Colder than normal temperatures cover almost all of central and eastern North America, but the weather pattern is generally quiet. A few centimetres of snow are expected in the upper Great Lakes over the weekend with a few heavier snow squalls in westerly winds across the central and lower Great Lakes.

SOMETHING WE'RE WATCHING ... The large upper-level blocking high seems to be pushing west across northern Siberia. This could lead to a major surge of very cold air into western Russia and so the ECM model is currently favoured as it seems to be picking up on this more than the GFS. But is it picking up on it totally? Time will tell -- the blocking high has already moved from north of the Yukon (130 W) to northwest of Wrangel Island (160 E) and so has travelled about 50 degrees west in three days. At that rate ... it could push very cold air into Moscow within 3-4 days.

Monday, 17 January, 2011
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TODAY ... the best of any sunshine will be through central counties from Clare to Dublin ... to the north, more cloud and occasional showers with a few sunny breaks ... to the south, cloud with drizzle near the south coast at times ... highs generally 6-8 C ... winds rather light except in far north where SW to W 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... northern showers may continue sporadically, little accumulation, lows near 2 C. ... central regions dry and cold, some clearing, ice fog possible, lows to -4 C although near zero in Dublin city (airport could be colder) ... south will gradually clear too and see slight frosts except in larger towns where lows near +1 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... each day this week is likely to be dry, mostly clear except for lingering fog or low cloud in a few places, and almost calm under extensive high pressure ... lows will generally fall to -6 to -3 C and highs will struggle inland to get much above freezing but should more easily reach 4-5 deg C in coastal regions. If there is any wind at all it should be westerly near the north coast and easterly near the south coast but less then 10 mph.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... this pattern may not change at all but if it does change it will likely be towards more cloud and slightly less cold at night.

Sometimes these spells show up on models for many days but then something happens to change the scenario and the calm spell breaks down earlier -- just for pure weather interest I hope that's the case here as this week will be a weather snooze-fest.

Meanwhile, MTC's LOCAL WEATHER was very mild on Sunday 16th with a high near 14 C, some brief sunny breaks, late afternoon and evening showers. Still very mild at almost 11 p.m. here.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER showing slightly milder temperatures in central and eastern states south of about the Ohio River to Philadelphia, no great warmth but near normal ahead of a rather weak, sprawling low in Kansas and Nebraska. North of that and across the Great Lakes and New England, cold with occasional snow, trending to extreme cold in western Canada away from the coast, -30 C in parts of Alberta and -53 C in the Yukon. :eek:

Update around mid-March (just kidding)

Wednesday, 19 January, 2011
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Okay, who turned off the weather machine?

TODAY ... Perhaps most important to note, black ice could be widespread on the roads, and it may look dry but there can be a thin layer of ice present that you only sense when you try to brake. Go easy ... Later, sunshine just about everywhere, with the exception of a few inland fog patches that may take some time to dissipate. Very cold in the shade and for most of the morning, but it should be pleasant enough after about 1100h until sunset, when highs reach 4-7 C. If this high sits around for many days, I suspect there will be some places that fail to shake off the chill or the fog eventually, but that may be a few days away yet.

TONIGHT ... Clear and very cold, lows -4 to -7 C ... scattered ice fog patches likely and widespread black ice will be quite a hazard on the roads.
Full moon will occur at 7:32 p.m. shortly after the moon rises.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... At this point, set out the welcome mat and the fine china because this high is your new best friend and wants to stay a while ... but at the same time, it will drift west and allow a very slack northerly flow to develop. That may actually warm things up slightly by keeping the air moving a bit, especially in east coast locations. But in general, for these four days, expect the dry, cold to cool spell to continue with sharp frosts, scattered ice fog in the mornings, widespread icy roads until mid-day, and milder sunshine for a brief period each afternoon ... the lows each day should be around -5 C but could fall to -8 C in a few spots, and highs will be mainly in the range of 3-6 C but could be a bit colder inland and a little milder near some coasts.

OUTLOOK ... There is still the same uncertainty about whether a prolonged cold, dry spell is set to continue another week, or whether some form of more active weather with a northwest to northeast origin will set in ... my guess is that there may be a little variation and more cloud next week but no huge changes in this pattern until perhaps mid to late week when it could turn colder still.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Tuesday 18th was morning showers, then cloudy with afternoon sunshine breaking through, rather cold, highs near 6 C. There will be a frost overnight but then milder weather returns.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER highlights ... heavy snow broke out in parts of New England with freezing rain and sleet closer to the coast, but this was not a major disturbance and it's now close to the Nova Scotia coast. Scattered weak frontal waves are plodding along in a vast trough located over central regions, doing little more than laying down a bit of sleet or snow, followed by colder weather ... but a major storm seems likely to develop from the Gulf northeast on Friday morning reaching New England on Saturday.

Friday, 21 January, 2011
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TODAY ... be on the alert for widespread icy roads due to black ice from frost and fog ... some sunny breaks especially in the south, but more extensive low cloud than previous days, some lingering fog, and chilly ... highs generally in the range of 2 to 6 C.

TONIGHT ... some clear intervals, but widespread low cloud and fog developing, lows may be held up slightly by the cloud and should average about -2 C but a few spots may fall much lower due to early clear spells, this time the west central counties may see the colder readings.

OUTLOOK ... With the high continuing to drift west and allow more of a northeast to northerly flow (albeit quite slack at 10-15 mph), the faint influence of the ocean will return and keep things just slightly milder especially at night, but there will also continue to be the odd clear spot allowing daytime sun but night-time chill and dense fog formation.

On the average, from Saturday to mid-week, highs will be near 5 C but could reach 8 C in some coastal areas. Lows will average about -1 C but may display quite a range of local conditions.

Throughout the period, watch out for scattered icy roads but this problem will likely fade to isolated valley locations as the cold spell modifies slightly. There will also be some tendency to coastal drizzle in Connacht and north Ulster.

Eventually, the high may return and give another interlude of clearing skies and very cold nights, but what we need to watch for is any northward drift of the ridge that connects this high to the Siberian high currently pushing very slowly west in Russia. If this ridge gets far enough north, a cold easterly flow could develop at some point later next week. This is considered possible but not overly likely for a while at least.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Thursday 20th was cold with wet snow turning to sleet and drizzle, temperatures near 1 C all morning then closer to 3 C by afternoon, and we still have about 2 cms of snow on the ground. Closer to sea level, it was just a cold rain event.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER -- A medium-sized snowstorm is developing and will hit from about New York to Halifax later today, but amounts in excess of 30 cms will be rare, as it's relatively weak and fast moving. Extremely cold air is flooding south behind this storm from central Canada. A slow and rather weak warming trend continues on the west coast and into parts of Alberta, but this is not pushing the very cold air away for most outside the foothills of the Rockies, and since cold air remains trapped in the mountain valleys further west, there is not much of a warming trend in many areas there.

Monday, 24 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a little milder with mist and some fog, drizzle or light rain spreading gradually into some parts of the north, winds NW 10-20 mph. Highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle or light rain in north at times, lows generally about 2-4 C but a few isolated patches of frost could develop well inland.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy with showers or periods of light rain, about 3-5 mms on average but heavier to the north, in a northerly wind of 15-25 mph.
Highs about 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Further light showers overnight may begin to mix with sleet or snow especially over higher parts of the north and east, as winds turn more northeasterly 15-25 mph, lows of about 2 C and highs near 6 C (closer to 9 C west).

THURSDAY ... Colder with a widespread morning frost, partly sunny with the risk of isolated flurries in the southeast, lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C. Winds east 15-25 mph (stronger gusts south coast).

FRIDAY ... Dry and chilly with a low near -4 C and a high near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... This dry and rather chilly weather seems set to continue to the end of January with some indications again of much colder weather on northerly winds becoming part of the forecast in early February, and we continue to think that mild or windy and wet conditions are unlikely for quite some time, with the slight exception of this coming Tuesday's light rain.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Sunday 23rd was cloudy and dry with fairly mild temperatures near 9 C. Some light rain has set in again this evening.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER continues mild in the west but bitterly cold in the east, with some readings below -30 C in parts of New York state and New England, and close to -40 C in rural parts of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec overnight. A complex storm will develop mid-week and move towards New England bringing coastal sleet and inland snow.

Wednesday, 26 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny intervals, only a few very light showers in some western counties, and temperatures steady this morning then falling this afternoon ... highs near 8 C west, 6 C east ... winds NNE becoming ENE 20-30 mph later today.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cold, slight chance of a passing mixed shower of sleet or hail, winds E 15-30 mph, lows near -4 C inland, west and north, and zero C east to south coasts. Some isolated fog developing with icy patches on roads well after midnight.

THURSDAY ... For most places, a sunny and cold day with a keen easterly breeze at 10-20 mph ... a few passing hail or snow showers are possible in the southeast but may be fairly weak and short-lived ... highs 2-4 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... A dry, cold period with slightly more cloud in the northwest than elsewhere, leading to spotty drizzle near the coast of Donegal, Mayo and Galway ... for most other counties, lows about -5 C and highs about 4-6 C ... more like 2/7 C in the northwest by weekend.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather dry and chilly despite a slight warming trend, with frost lingering well into the following week in many areas, highs staying a bit below normal too (so around 6-8 C). There could always be a change to much colder in this pattern because with more retrogression than shown on current model runs, there's a lot of very cold air available to come south or even southwest from higher latitudes. At the same time, I think there is likely to be a mild, wet period in about two weeks' time, lasting a few days. The best chance for a final period of wintry weather is probably in the second half of February or even the first week of March.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Tuesday was cloudy and mild with some light rain and highs of about 10 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The main story is a developing storm that so far is mostly rain and sleet over the southeast U.S. but will transform into a snowstorm later today when the low gets past Cape Hatteras and into the open Atlantic. Eventually 10-30 cms of snow will fall on the major eastern cities by Thursday morning. Further north it remains rather cold although not as severe as on the weekend. Western regions are mild and will only cool off to normal values late in the week.

Friday, 28 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Becoming partly sunny but with frequent cloudy intervals this morning, quite cold, winds fairly light except E 10-20 mph in southern counties ... possible brief hail or snow showers in southeast, little accumulation ... highs generally 2-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with some longer clear intervals, sharp to severe frost, some icy patches developing with patchy freezing fog. Lows -2 to -5 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with some sunshine, rather cold with highs near 4 or 5 C ... very light winds, calm in some places, and the risk of freezing fog lingering, or returning shortly after sunset. Some icy roads possible in shaded areas.

SUNDAY ... Cold and sunny again, except for somewhat milder and cloudy conditions in the northwest, drizzle near shore or just offshore ... lows for most regions near -5 C and highs near 5 C (a range from -2 to +7 C in west and northwest).

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Breezy from the southwest with a slow moderating trend in temperature, highs reaching about 7 C on Monday and 9 C on Tuesday, with cloud and then rain spreading in.

OUTLOOK ... Models are now trending towards a windy period later in the week, possibly reaching 50 mph or higher at times, with some further showery intervals as well.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy and mild again today (Thursday), highs near 10 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The eastern states were digging out from the heavy snow while parts of eastern Canada were dealing with the same storm on Thursday. It remains rather cold across the east with a secondary weak low tracking through the Great Lakes. Further west, it has continued mild but a developing snowstorm in northern Alberta is heading southeast with much colder air moving south behind that, expected to drop temperatures back below normal across most of western Canada through Friday and the weekend.

Sunday, 30 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Misty or foggy to start, then hazy sunshine in some parts of the south and east, mostly cloudy across the west and north. Some light rain or drizzle may develop there later. Otherwise, dry after a somewhat slippery or icy start, and staying quite cold with highs 3-5 C south, east to 5-7 C west and north.

TONIGHT ... Another frosty night for the south and inland east, but more cloudy for most allowing temperatures to stay near or above freezing, lows varying from -3 C southeast to +3 C northwest.

MONDAY ... Breezy, clouding over with showers developing later afternoon and evening in west, northwest, as winds rise to SW 20-40 mph. Highs will reach 7 C southeast and 9 C northwest.

TUESDAY ... Early morning rain, breezy or locally windy, SW 25-45 mph, then partial clearing with a few further showers becoming somewhat mixed or wintry over higher parts of Connacht, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, mild, periods of rain and moderate to strong SW winds 30-50 mph, by late in the day, lows near -1 C and highs reaching 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and changeable with passing hail or sleet showers in a colder westerly wind 30-50 mph (possibly higher gusts in Connacht and Donegal). Lows near 2 C and highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be back to mild in this fast-moving series of lows with their warm sectors, so temperatures may reach 12 C with periods of rain and SW winds 40-60 mph at times. This will be somewhat less than a stormy situation from the look of the maps, just a steady blustery wind. But we'll keep a close eye on this given the stronger upper level winds developing.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... not as mild but staying unsettled through mid-month from the general look of the guidance.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Saturday 29th was cloudy, rather chilly with some light rain at times, highs near 7 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER is dominated by very strong high pressure dropping south in western Canada with temperatures near -40 C, spreading frigid air into the north central U.S. to set off a slow-moving storm from Colorado east by tonight or Monday. It remains quite warm from Oklahoma to the Gulf coast and this squeeze of violently contrasting air masses will create quite a strong storm system, the one that will be moving past Ireland on Friday and Saturday of next week. This will eventually bring a heavy snowfall to the Ohio valley and inland northeast U.S., while the southeast will get heavy rain and severe storms.

Tuesday, 1 February, 2011
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TODAY ... Breezy and partly cloudy (sunny in south) with a few passing showers of hail or rain, heavier in Connacht ... winds WSW 25-45 mph ... highs about 8-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear at first, slight frost developing around midnight, then windy and becoming cloudy with rain developing, temperatures reaching their lowest values around 10 p.m. to midnight at -1 to +2 C, then rising ... winds increasing to SSW 30-50 mph, about 6-8 C by morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers, mild, and quite windy at times, SW 30-50 mph, highs near 11 C. Rainfalls of 5-15 mms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Windy and turning colder, sleet or hail showers and winds W 30-50 mph, lows near 2 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with strong WSW winds 35-55 mph, cold with mixed wintry showers that could drop snow on higher parts of Connacht, otherwise rain and hail, highs mid-day about 5-7 C, temperatures steady or even rising by evening in a strong SW wind.

THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY ... Cloudy, windy, periods of rain, winds SW 40-60 mph and possibly gusting to 70 mph in Mayo and Donegal, mild with highs reaching 11-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Mild, breezy, some rain at times, highs near 11 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Dry but cold on Monday (31st) with rather extensive high cloud, just weak sunshine at times, highs about 3 C, this evening clear and cold, around -4 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Snowstorm is developing over the southern plains states heading for the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast, freezing rain runs from n.w. Arkansas into Missouri and parts of Illinois, and may spread into Ohio and Pennsylvania ... warm and humid in the southeast with the risk of severe storms ... very cold over the northern and central plains states, prairies with a high of almost 1060 mbs near the Montana-North Dakota border. The cold is spreading on east winds towards Arizona, Nevada and southern California (where frosts may cause problems for winter vegetable crops).