Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards

Speak Now · 24-11-2010 3:07pm

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS beyond 96 hours can go in the bin according to the National Weather Service

LATEST 06Z GFS COMPLETELY DISREGARDED FROM DAY 4 ONWARD...

I was thinking it looked a bit progressive alright with the mild air pushing north.

TheFairy · 24-11-2010 3:13pm

Just in the middle of a sleet shower at the moment here in Fermanagh. Can clearly see little bits of ice on the window. Totally unscientific car thermometer showing 7 C.

WolfeIRE · 24-11-2010 3:40pm

severe weather warning for london and english SE
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?from=rss&sn=2387

Su Campu · 24-11-2010 3:41pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I know other have different opinions but im pretty confident that is what can be expected.

The ECM ensembles back up what I am saying aswell. Im talking about Friday night on. I disagree with Su Campu there won't be sub zero nights till then. Temperatures should be down generally between -1 an -3C away from windward coasts between now and Friday at night so severe frost I think.

Eh darkman, I said there won't be Many sub-zeroes...I didn't say der won't be Any! Of course where there are prolonged clear skies it will sink lower, but I think tonight and tomorrow night we'll have enough mid-high cloud to keep many places around zero or above, especially so tomorrow night.

ffarrell7 · 24-11-2010 3:44pm

The East of the country is destined it seems to bear the brunt of the severs weather over the weekend and into next week. Probably significant snowfall as usual for Dublin/Wicklow mountains and showers of snow and hail for inland areas of Dublin/Wicklow/Louth.:D:D:D:D

Deep Easterly · 24-11-2010 3:47pm

I was just looking at our IMT stats (Irish mean temperature based on 5 inland met eireann stations dotted around the country) since January 2009 and found it interesting that we seem to be in a wider phase of cooling after a warmer than average period during the mid 2010 period.

Adding a polynomial trend line to the monthly deviations since Jan 2009, and interesting pattern emerges:

in that the warmer and cooler periods over the last couple of years seem to come in a defined wave. Currently, we seem to be dipping down to cooler conditions again but will it be a dip as deep or as wide as the last such one during the winter 2009/2010 period?? Or will just be a smaller blip in the greater scheme of things? We'll see!

All stats c/o
Met Eireann.

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 3:53pm

12z GFS upping the chances of snow in the Midlands and East early on Friday morning. Don't be supprised to wake up to a few flakes.

ninebeanrows · 24-11-2010 3:54pm

GFS 12z shows poss of some suprise snow Friday morning

The front throughs slightly milder uppers ahead of its track south, upto -4c in Dublin.

However a harsh frost forms Thursday night in slack winds in the Midlands and East with temperatures dipping to -4c in places.

The front then pushes south above this frost with according to the 12z decent precip levels.

Potential for a decent slab of snow, but more likely sleet/rain. However it very much is possible it will fall as snow. 50/50.

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 4:01pm

GFS showing colder conditions for Saturday and really potential for heavy snow showers in the East. Possibly even a longer period of sleet and snow.

Deep Easterly · 24-11-2010 4:01pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Potential for a decent slab of snow, but more likely sleet/rain. However it very much is possible it will fall as snow. 50/50.

Eggs in many baskets there WC

Su Campu · 24-11-2010 4:02pm

We've a warm front moving southwards Thursday night, so with the increased cloudiness I wouldn't expect a harsh frost to set in.

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 4:04pm

510 DAM not far away on Sunday night...

egan2020 · 24-11-2010 4:04pm

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

It's all a waiting game now.

Daily routine for next few days
Get up, have a peek out the window, grab a coffee and check MT's daily forecast

Get to work, grab another coffee and check the discussion thread on boards

More coffee and an f5 every half hour or so

loo break - all that coffee is starting to take it's toll

no checking of Boards in the afternoon as I'll have nothing to read when i get home

Get home and have a cup of tea, wouldn't like to become predictable now would I.

Snuggle down on Sofa with laptop and f5 the evening away.

Ahhh bliss - I love winter:cool:

This pretty much sums my daily routine during the last cold spell. The only thing missing this time round are posts from Owenc

ninebeanrows · 24-11-2010 4:05pm

12z to 84hrs is virtual snow-fest for Eastern Ireland, there would be some serious disruption in Dublin, Obviously areas withing 1 mile of the coast would be under question but even with this locations included a fantastic run with varies disturbances developing piling snow into the east.

ninebeanrows · 24-11-2010 4:06pm

Su Campu wrote: »

We've a warm front moving southwards Thursday night, so with the increased cloudiness I wouldn't expect a harsh frost to set in.

I was thinking the frost would lock in before the high level cloud pushes south, seen this happen last year, GFS for what it's worth progs these temps, not my imagination.

ninebeanrows · 24-11-2010 4:09pm

Warning: There might be knives out on UK forums over the run, while it might be great for them it's amazing for us. But just one run.

Deep Easterly · 24-11-2010 4:12pm

Friday evening's disturbance in the form of that small low Su Campu mentioned earlier on still heading for Ireland on the latest HIRLAM 12z run:

extreme NW and western headlands continue to be at risk of some strong winds is it bears down but I think the exact track may not be nailed on just yet.

Defcol · 24-11-2010 4:13pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z to 84hrs is virtual snow-fest for Eastern Ireland, there would be some serious disruption in Dublin, Obviously areas withing 1 mile of the coast would be under question but even with this locations included a fantastic run with varies disturbances developing piling snow into the east.

Is it likely to push into Meath?

ninebeanrows · 24-11-2010 4:17pm

Sunday would surely be one of the coldest November days in Ireland ever if were to arrive, Baltic winds, 850hpas nearing -10c, 2M temps below 0c for many and minima crashing to -8c inland. The upper air setup is going to be extremely cold for the time of year.

Su Campu · 24-11-2010 4:20pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I was thinking the frost would lock in before the high level cloud pushes south, seen this happen last year, GFS for what it's worth progs these temps, not my imagination.

Look what's happened the last two nights with just some scattered mid-high cloud. Although uppers may be a bit colder tomorrow night, there should be a more organised high-level overcast approaching from the north, so maybe all but the extreme south can be excluded from harsh frost.

Maybe I'm wrong with my timings - I'm going from memory of the last time I saw the charts as I'm using my phone this afternoon! But at least i ddnt use txt spk eh!

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 4:20pm

lol! Anyone want to estimate the windchill? Somewhere sotuh of -10 id say:P

maquiladora · 24-11-2010 4:24pm

Wonder if the NWS will trash the 12Z GFS like they did with the 06Z?

Figuramatyi · 24-11-2010 4:25pm

Lol imagine if this really happened to the UK:

maquiladora · 24-11-2010 4:28pm

Figuramatyi wrote: »

Lol imagine if this really happened to the UK:

That would be rain for the SE of England anyway. Snow likely further North.

Wouldn't bet on it happening just like that anyway though. Long way off still.

Figuramatyi · 24-11-2010 4:31pm

maquiladora wrote: »

That would be rain for the SE of England anyway. Snow likely further North.

Wouldn't bet on it happening just like that anyway though. Long way off still.

Rain with negative Tmaxes?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1685.png
Check the parameters of that cyclone, I'd say!

ninebeanrows · 24-11-2010 4:33pm

GFS Snowfest and UKM also excellant.

maquiladora · 24-11-2010 4:36pm

Figuramatyi wrote: »

Rain with negative Tmaxes?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1685.png
Check the parameters of that cyclone, I'd say!

I mean in the SE corner of England.

-2/-3 850 temps

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-162.png?12

Can't imagine snow with that? Further north and west would be a different story.

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 4:39pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS Snowfest and UKM also excellant.

Indeed sub -8 850 temps established on Saturday.

nacho libre · 24-11-2010 4:43pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I mean in the SE corner of England.

-2/-3 850 temps

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-162.png?12

Can't imagine snow with that? Further north and west would be a different story.

that will more than likely change in future runs. Another 100-150 miles south east and its snow for even that part of england. it's knife edge stuff really.

WolfeIRE · 24-11-2010 4:44pm

Su Campu wrote: »

But at least i ddnt use txt spk eh!

Hey u! Wats wrong wit txt speak? U r de only 1 not using it Su!

whitemocha · 24-11-2010 4:56pm

love this forum at this time of year even if we dont get snow the possability and talks are exciting enough

nacho libre · 24-11-2010 4:58pm

WolfeIRE, you might want to take a look at the GH. Hopefully that trend continues.

Saganist · 24-11-2010 5:00pm

Any showers for the East coast tonight lads ?

The wind direction seems to be still coming from a Northerly direction !

nacho libre · 24-11-2010 5:02pm

whitemocha wrote: »

love this forum at this time of year even if we dont get snow the possability and talks are exciting enough

indeed. i tend to forget about the other boards.ie forums in these situations:)

maquiladora · 24-11-2010 5:03pm

For what its worth, snowfall accumulation chart for the 30th based on the 12Z GFS...

A general spread of 2cm in eastern (and a bit more) in northern areas.

I don't think the UK would be too jealous of us based on that.

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 5:10pm

Saganist wrote: »

Any showers for the East coast tonight lads ?

The wind direction seems to be still coming from a Northerly direction !

Some light snow showers will clip the East coast later tonight and through tomorrow. Not going to be significant though I don't think.

Elmo5 · 24-11-2010 5:14pm

phew! I just have to get to Belfast and back tomorrow morning and then the snow can come

acassells80 · 24-11-2010 5:37pm

Hi

Met Eireann are saying a lil snow from Sunday, when do you experts think it will hit and will it be enough to cause carnage like last year?

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 5:43pm

acassells80 wrote: »

Hi

Met Eireann are saying a lil snow from Sunday, when do you experts think it will hit and will it be enough to cause carnage like last year?

It will be before Sunday - probrably Saturday morning onward. I don't think it will be that bad. You have to take into account the time of year and also ground temperatures are not as cold as they were last January because the Winter has only started. So it's more difficult to see alot of snow settling where it falls. No I don't think it will be very disruptive. Inland away from the coast will be icy though. That could be tricky.

Trogdor · 24-11-2010 5:50pm

Saganist wrote: »

Any showers for the East coast tonight lads ?

The wind direction seems to be still coming from a Northerly direction !

It would say a few nice surprise snow showers may come onshore, especially through the morning hours of Thursday. On the radar now I think you can just about make out that the showers currently forming in the Irish sea are just gradually changing direction and inclining slightly towards the Irish coast, lets hope so!
http://met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp?ani=y

gally74 · 24-11-2010 5:55pm

Raining in galway

darkman2 · 24-11-2010 5:55pm

Latest fax chart for Friday night

850 temps around -7C.....interesting for the East and Northwest. Any showers or longer precipitation definately falling as sleet and snow.

roryc1 · 24-11-2010 6:16pm

trogdor wrote: »

It would say a few nice surprise snow showers may come onshore, especially through the morning hours of Thursday. On the radar now I think you can just about make out that the showers currently forming in the Irish sea are just gradually changing direction and inclining slightly towards the Irish coast, lets hope so!
http://met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp?ani=y

Yeah it looks like some of the buoys are going slightly NNE

M2 2O deg
M3 360
M4 30

roryc1 · 24-11-2010 6:35pm

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?24-0
Anyone want snow

Su Campu · 24-11-2010 7:02pm

It's snowing in Scotland and northeast England this evening, down to 23m amsl in Boulmer.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=000E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2010&mes=11&day=24hora=18&vsg=Sg

maquiladora · 24-11-2010 7:08pm

How was the tv forecast? I missed it.

Darwin · 24-11-2010 7:11pm

You're in luck...extended news, forecast not on yet

Kippure · 24-11-2010 7:11pm

Su Campu wrote: »

It's snowing in Scotland and northwest England this evening, down to 23m amsl in Boulmer.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=000E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2010&mes=11&day=24hora=18&vsg=Sg

[IMG][/img]

glossy · 24-11-2010 7:12pm

maquiladora wrote: »

How was the tv forecast? I missed it.

rte1 news been extended, so weather report not been on as yet,, in 5 mins or so weather report will be on

thetonynator · 24-11-2010 7:12pm

nacho libre wrote: »

indeed. i tend to forget about the other boards.ie forums in these situations:)

there are . . . Other . . . Forums? What?!

:P :P :P

Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards

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